Harry

Is an outrage piece. He's an outlier mate. The newspapers always focus on the outliers

My guess would be that you have a small relatively well contained outbreak, which was undetected before now. I'd guess it mainly due to lack of known Covid in the area was just dismissed as being the flu for some time before people gave in and tested, or until someone became more seriously unwell which basically demanded a test. If containment measures have already been implemented it will likely not be widespread.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/antibody-tests-support-whats-been-obvious-covid-19-is-much-more-lethal-than-flu/2020/04/28/2fc215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html A random sample of 3000 people across New York state suggests around 25% of the 8.8M New York City have been exposed to COVID. That's approx ten times the number of confirmed cases, which means it spreads faster than we thought, but is significantly less lethal than the confirmed cases and deaths would suggest, by about an order of magnitude.

It's a tricky situation to navigate. If a vaccine is 18 months away and not even a sure thing that one can be found, and there is a fear of a second wave in winter, then I could imagine a government wanting to manage a gradual semi controlled herd immunity through the warmer months when people's immune systems are at their highest, and flu is low that will then provide more resistance to an intensive winter spread. I doubt your county acting alone would be thinking through that process though? In Australia and other places we may have a shot at eliminating the virus in which case you might go harder on the lockdowns at the front end but the whole process is seeming to be a marathon not a sprint and realistically I don't think you can maintain the current arrangements for 18 months.

That's right lady! Now go and be a good girl and drink your bleach.

The problem with that video is its based on the premise that he's only doing a good job because he's on tv. His visibility enhances his profile but the results also suggest that Australia has done very well. Fewer deaths and cases per capita than New Zealand, and created and led a national cabinet which functioned very effectively. In the same way the lad holding a fish is a nailed on liberal voter the dude making the video would be incapable of praising a liberal pm and would be critical no matter what. In any case he's been well and truly outshone by Daniel Andrews in Victoria, who's been almost flawless in his handling of the crisis so far. Went out on his own of all the premiers to shut down schools before term ended, leaked a plan to shutdown everything in the state to force scomo to accelerate the stage 2 restrictions. He was resolute and decisive. Topped it off on Good Friday, where the Good Friday appeal (charity event for the Royal Children's Hospital -a staple of Good Friday tv in Melbourne) was basically fucked on by isolation and was set to be a shitshow in the money raising department. He recognised the impact Covid would have on the event, so he went on the appeal, acknowledged people's emotional connection to the hospital, and undoubted desire to donate but also the reality of many being unable to do so to the same extent due to job uncertainty and etc. He committed the government to top up whatever the difference to match last year's total. Very classy move and a political win as well.

Our premier muscled the fuck out of Scomo on schools and other matters. The federal libs broke from their ideological identity to stimulate the economy and radically scale up welfare. The national cabinet was formed and was decisive and effective at implementing shut-down measures earlier than many other nations. Both sides of politics worked hand in hand and were united where other nations and there states were in dysfunction. Liberals are still liberals and labour are still labour but we saw the best sides of both of those movements in response to COVID. Far from flawless, but we are now being held up alongside South Korea as an example of what getting it mostly right looks like.

I wouldn't think so mate but it's certainly the end of filled stadiums. Australia has flagged social distancing through to the end of the year but are bringing back community sports and the AFL and NRL now talking about a June return date.

CDC director spend some news two days ago when he warned the Covid was likely to return in the fall and pose a risk of being worse than the original wave. Like like trump didn't like it, but he didn't care.

Are you aware that the monthly death rate in New York City over the past 30 days is up by 300% on the average for the same time of year? That is independent of any alleged medical conspiracy.

To what end mate? What is gained by a huge number of people in the world propagating a giant exaggeration? And what of the evidence of most hospital employees in cities with major oubreaks or the originals in the Wuhan city who didn't even know a virus existing who were just suddenly saying "Holy shit people are suddenly dyinga metric crap load more than Ive ever seen before in my career?

I've learned: 1. It's phenomenally hard to have two parents work full time in a house with 2 young kids and no child carer present. 2. Most people do the right thing 3. I have more respect for my state and federal government than I realised. We have it much better here politically than we realise. 4. I actually enjoy my commute to work, and get a lot of de-stressing benefit from that quiet me time

Mate I'm not sure how serious you are with all this. Covid is way worse than the flu. Some undisputed facts. Tell me if you disagree with any of these. Covid spreads way faster than normal flu. It's new so there's no immunity, meaning it will spread to more people than the flu. A death rate is not a fixed number. It will depend how many of the hospitalised can get treatment. We haven't seen the worst that can happen to one city because every place with a significant outbreak shuts down to stop the spread. It's killed 20k people in NY, population 19m. If the death rate was really 0.1% every person in the state would need to have Covid. And would require 100% of active cases to recover with no further deaths.

Seems like you've finally found the YouTube clip that aligned with what you wanted to believe already...

Still come if your sick guys.... It's your right.

Lots of stories of how small the numbers actually are at these events. Yet it's being misrepresented as the entirety of trumps base taking that position.

Almost better to sort those types of lists by death count as it may be a better indicator of true size of outbreak in a country given tests are still such a bottleneck.

I agree. I think even if past the ultimate peak America will likely have the longest tail of annoyingly high case load, and a really high proportion of deaths and cases per capita compared to other major powers (assuming a vaccine can be developed). Killing it off is all about that R_effective figure... Getting it below 1 requires not only significant distancing measures but a very high uptake throughout the population of people who adhere to it. If America has a more mobilised bunch of sceptics through the likes of Fox News it may shave 10% off the uptake which would have big consequences on the curve trajectory.

I find it quite unbelievable the extent to which trump is being giving unconditional coverage throughout this saga. Every day from 5pm for two or more hours live on every channel. It purports to provide an update on coronavirus but actually seems to provide minimal factual info, substantial misinformation and mostly campaigning and/or grievance airing. That's just the most oversaturated level of communication from a leader that I could ever imagine.

Quite a transformation mate. Below was my immediate first thought when I saw your latest photo.

Yeah I agree. I'm a bit wary of these Stanford guys as I heard their work being spoken about by right wing Australian politicians several days as evidence we should end the shutdown and just let the virus do it's worst, days before anyone wrote about the results. Best examples of the virus are cruise ships or countries that have a really good handle on their outbreak. In Melbourne we're running 2000 tests a day and finding 5 cases, with anyone who wants a a test who is symptomatic able to get one. Our death rate is about 1%. But there can be no figure that will universally apply anyway given the number of variables in play. What's the death rate in a country with unlimited ICU capacity vs one in a country with no hospitals whatsoever?

Stanford study seems to suggest mortality rate of COVID is radically less than what's been thought previously

We've just extended for the next 4 weeks and we're down to 50 new cases per day, but I think we're actually trying to eliminate it.

Wow. Its nice to see the back of Mike Ashley but fucking hell. A Saudi government backed investment group? That makes Qatar and UAE look like Mother Theresa. Would be interested to know what @SirBalon would make of it.