Harry

Agreed. It also ignores what's changed already since November such as the Jan 6 events, and the stolen election lie, where the evidence from Georgia was significant poll movement between the two points. However the rural (conservative) bias in both senate and electoral college, and the importance of winning battleground states should not be underestimated.

The combined margin in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin that delivered him the electoral college win. If he'd lost those 50k votes he'd have won the popular election by 7m but still lost 268-270. These states plus Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are all about 5% more conservative leaning than the nation as a whole will decide the next election. A Democrat from "radically liberal" California will usually not play well in these states.

When five thirty eight are writing feature articles on how shit you are you know things are going pretty bad... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-bad-is-liverpool/

Coming 2 America (sequel). If you loved the original you'll definitely enjoy the sequel. Very fun. Expectations greatly exceeded. 8/10

I was quoting Donald Trump Juniors Twitter account.

Honestly think Bush v gore remains the most damaging result for sliding doors moments in US history. For the GOP too. It was the wrong kind of success. They lost by 50k votes in November. Electoral law changes to reduce the chance of "fraud" are being put forward in states that will be needed for Dems to win (limiting turnout), and nobody really likes Kamala Harris. For me Trump could win in 2024 if he hasn't been neutered by business failings or legal troubles, but less likely than a more Trump friendly conservative like desantis. But the party base like Trump more.

Honestly I think it wouldn't be unrealistic to go a month or two earlier. The northern summer will play a big role in reducing the spread of COVID, which should combine with very substantial deployment of vaccinations throughout many countries. There will still be cases and risk but it would surprise me if the significantly tourism dependent states were not welcoming tourism for the northern summer despite that.

Trump basically solved COVID for the world, guys!

I can really see you just busting to talk about this show. Makes me sorry I haven't watched it yet. But I watched that previous scene you posted which you said was mind-blowing, and frankly I had no clue what was going on

Why waste your time with Blackjack?

Mob dogs do that.... Further evidence of the Biden crime family track record of corruption and violence.

Trump has sent cease and desist letters to the RNC and other major party bodies (from using him or his message in fundraising efforts) and is calling for donations directly to himself and his own political action committee.

This will be must watch.

There's a reason the 2 party preferred vote is ~50 50, and the preferred pm is 62 26.

https://theshot.net.au/general-news/history-can-turn-on-moments-like-this/ Great, blistering piece.

Except that I consume zero mainstream media other than ABC and guardian and Twitter, wouldn't touch anything Murdoch and haven't watched a tv news bulletin in years. 62 vs 26% is damning mate. Albo is unfortunate, like all opposition leaders in Australia with covid given incumbents a boost and Scomo doing absolutely nothing to create a sense of bipartisanship or give Labor a look in with the national cabinet. This current scandal is the closest thing yet that could shake it up, but I think it would take an opposition leader as relentlessly negative as Tony Abbott to hammer it home all the way through to the election to get within touching distance.

Albo is ten times the person Scomo is. But I'm not convinced that he's an effective opposition leader, especially against such a PR photo-op heavy PM as Morrison. The preferred pm polling data supports this unfortunately, I think because he just lacks the charisma to break through. A bit similar to shorten.

I think your maybe underestimating Biden here. I would suggest almost every other Democrat who was running could easily have been Hillary Clinton 2.0 in that election. Imo Kamala Harris loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Pete B loses lots of Latino and African Americans and other socially conservative democrats. Definitely loses Georgia and Arizona, Pennsylvania. Bernie loses many economically conservative voters. Amy K maybe competitive but not a very likeable presidential candidate. Probably doesn't turn out the African American vote as well as Biden. Loses Georgia, maybe Arizona. Cory Booker was maybe the best general election candidate they had, but he just didn't stand out enough.

Yeah I have a 2 and 5 year old and my hatred of the lockdown was more for my kids than myself. The final kindergarten (preschool) year was 50% remote learning which is not entirely possible when the learning is socialisation and group play. And the 2 year old has known lockdown half her life, and I think gets a lot more scared of strangers than I reckon would be the case in a precovid world.

There really does need to be a new term than Conservative for the Trump party now. They really don't espouse any conservative policies other than maybe hating on cancel culture.

No doubt it would've been a hard time to be doing the new mum thing this last year. A lot of mothers groups here were postponed due to covid, which is pretty shit considering how beneficial they are to most new families. How old is your child(ren)?

Who are Mark and Vicky? All these names I don't know

He doesn't know? My wife doesn't really know either and I don't really want her to. Not sure why.

I don't like musicals but I don't hate them either, but would've said I don't like rap music at all. So was dubious as fuck going in. But this had me from the first verse of the opening sequence, where the storytelling in the song lyrics itself was just next level to anything I'd heard in a long time. And being a true story focused on a period of history I was interested in added a layer to the enjoyment. My advice would be watch the opening 15 minutes (or even just 5) and see if it grabs you, and if not then don't continue.