Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Herd immunity has become a dirty word in the UK after how it was inherently linked to the idea of letting it burn through the population and the reported Cummings line of letting a few pensioners die.

Without a vaccine, and now that we know you will achieve immunity if you catch it, I'm afraid it's becoming apparent that more people getting it, recovering and gaining immunity is the primary way to move forward.

 The countries that have gone for complete suppression (the Isle of Man have done so that includes me) surely can't risk opening their borders up again until there's a vaccine? Such a headache.

Has this been confirmed?! So the chances of reinfection or dying from it are gone? Or am I misinterpreting that?

[Inverted]

I thought the Chinese and the French had discovered that only a few infected develop immunity, and they're not even sure if it's permanent.

That was always he main issue of the herd immunity strategy. It wasn't just that it gambled the lives of potentially hundreds of thousands of people, but it did so without any solid scientific evidence that it would work. 

If you do nothing, and decide just to weather the first wave, you run the risk that after all the suffering and death, you're in no better position than anyone else to face the follow-up waves. 

[RandoEFC+]

8 minutes ago, Stan said:

Has this been confirmed?! So the chances of reinfection or dying from it are gone? Or am I misinterpreting that?

 

3 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I thought the Chinese and the French had discovered that only a few infected develop immunity, and they're not even sure if it's permanent.

That was always he main issue of the herd immunity strategy. It wasn't just that it gambled the lives of potentially hundreds of thousands of people, but it did so without any solid scientific evidence that it would work. 

If you do nothing, and decide just to weather the first wave, you run the risk that after all the suffering and death, you're in no better position than anyone else to face the follow-up waves. 

I'm pretty sure there were some reports from South Korea that people had tested positive twice a couple of weeks apart, then they looked into it and determined that one of the tests was a false positive. I'm pretty sure it's right as there's been quite a bit of stuff about antibodies being present in recovered patients and surely we'd have heard reports at this point if there were a bunch of people who had been reinfected. 

This only really became solid a few weeks ago though so I agree that without this knowledge the initial herd immunity approach was reckless.

[nudge+]

At this point it's still unclear how long the immunity lasts. Could be weeks, months, or years - we simply have no way of knowing yet for sure, as it hasn't been around long enough. However, similarity to other coronaviruses suggests that the immunity should last for 1-2 years, likely. 

[Stan]

49 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

 

I'm pretty sure there were some reports from South Korea that people had tested positive twice a couple of weeks apart, then they looked into it and determined that one of the tests was a false positive. I'm pretty sure it's right as there's been quite a bit of stuff about antibodies being present in recovered patients and surely we'd have heard reports at this point if there were a bunch of people who had been reinfected. 

This only really became solid a few weeks ago though so I agree that without this knowledge the initial herd immunity approach was reckless.

But having said that, we'd have heard a lot more about achieving immunity if it had been confirmed?

The sign of anti-bodies being present is a good one, a positive one. But I'm sure there'll have to be tons more research going in to it and nothing will be conclusive for a good few months, in my opinion (based on no scientific knowledge ).

Also positive is the government announcing there could be vaccine by September, up to 30m of them. But again, I'm not sure on the specific numbers and science behind it and if it's at all possible. There's not really much to believe as they did also say 400k pieces of equipment would be delivered from Turkey (it was late, and the wrong kind). Not to mention they included a single glove (not a pair) as one piece of equipment.  

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

Herd immunity has become a dirty word in the UK after how it was inherently linked to the idea of letting it burn through the population and the reported Cummings line of letting a few pensioners die.

Without a vaccine, and now that we know you will achieve immunity if you catch it, I'm afraid it's becoming apparent that more people getting it, recovering and gaining immunity is the primary way to move forward.

The countries that have gone for complete suppression (the Isle of Man have done so that includes me) surely can't risk opening their borders up again until there's a vaccine? Such a headache.

I don't think Cummings line has much to do with it. That mainly gained traction in the FBPE bubble. 

If a vaccine is genuinely 4 or 5 months away then why would natural herd immunity be the right choice? 

[nudge+]

Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273) Against Novel Coronavirus:

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-positive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Harvsky said:

I don't think Cummings line has much to do with it. That mainly gained traction in the FBPE bubble. 

If a vaccine is genuinely 4 or 5 months away then why would natural herd immunity be the right choice? 

I'd imagine it comes down to how confident you can be of the timing of that vaccine....

Apparently the previous record for vaccine development was polio, in the 1960 's in 4 years.

[nudge+]

40 minutes ago, Harry said:

I'd imagine it comes down to how confident you can be of the timing of that vaccine....

Apparently the previous record for vaccine development was polio, in the 1960 's in 4 years.

A bit  unrelated, but in 2016 we were close to getting a SARS vaccine (the original SARS, that is), but nobody was interested in funding it as the virus was a distant memory at the time. Makes you wonder if it could have provided a cross-protection for the new one too...

[Honey Honey]

58 minutes ago, Harry said:

I'd imagine it comes down to how confident you can be of the timing of that vaccine....

Apparently the previous record for vaccine development was polio, in the 1960 's in 4 years.

Given that UK government has order 30 million vaccines for September on the condition the trials are successful I'd say there's no way UK can justify anything but suppression until that vaccine is ready or written off. They've committed to the idea that it can be ready in September.

[RandoEFC+]

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland you can now gather in groups of up to 6 with people from various households. Sucks to be them because it's 10 on the Isle of Man .

[Bluewolf]

I was having an interesting conversation with a workmate today about how businesses are going to be dealing with this as an ongoing concern if there is no vaccine for it in the near future.. If we are going to assume that this is going to be with us for the long term and the plan is to just try and contain and treat those that show symptoms how will  they deal with any potential cases??

Take our place for example, It's fairly hot to trot on normal colds and flu's and you have to remain away from the business at least 48 hours before returning if you are showing any signs of it, We also have to fill in forms to show if someone has been abroad for holidays/breaks etc and it covers at least 10 other possible symptoms of illness before you are allowed back on site and being a food place it's only right they do that but now they are going to have to extend this to the virus as well. 

We were wondering what happens if someone starts showing signs of it or if indeed they have it?? Will those that are showing signs be tested by the company or by the NHS? If someone does have it who then gets quarantined within that persons respective household?? For example my daughter works at the same place I do but up in the office but if one of us should get it does that then mean that neither of us can be in work for 14 days and what about others in the house? My son and his girlfriend both work for Asda and if they are in contact with someone who has it or could have it what happens then?? Are we all supposed to be on lockdown/isolation for 14 days?? Then of course we have the Grandkids to consider and my other daughter?? 

I am assuming of course that things would still be in very much 'take your chances' type scenario for the time being at least but that represents a major headache all round and doesn't even take into consideration that any one of us could pick it up at anytime and you can't keep going into a lockdown/isolation type scenario every time that happens surely??? I have also read that some people are capable of picking this up twice although I have zero data to back this up so not sure if or how often this has happened?? 

If we consider that this may well be part and parcel of our 'new normal' lives for a good while there are far more questions than we have answers for at the moment..  

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Bluewolf

[Kowabunga]

6 hours ago, nudge said:

At this point it's still unclear how long the immunity lasts. Could be weeks, months, or years - we simply have no way of knowing yet for sure, as it hasn't been around long enough. However, similarity to other coronaviruses suggests that the immunity should last for 1-2 years, likely. 

In terms of providing additional 'hope', there is also suggestion/speculation that having passed common colds caused by certain coronaviruses different from SARS-CoV-2 may offer partial immunity to some extent as it has been reported the existence of SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells among individuals not exposed to COVID-19.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

 

[Honey Honey]

31 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

I was having an interesting conversation with a workmate today about how businesses are going to be dealing with this as an ongoing concern if there is no vaccine for it in the near future.. If we are going to assume that this is going to be with us for the long term and the plan is to just try and contain and treat those that show symptoms how will  they deal with any potential cases??

Take our place for example, It's fairly hot to trot on normal colds and flu's and you have to remain away from the business at least 48 hours before returning if you are showing any signs of it, We also have to fill in forms to show if someone has been abroad for holidays/breaks etc and it covers at least 10 other possible symptoms of illness before you are allowed back on site and being a food place it's only right they do that but now they are going to have to extend this to the virus as well. 

We were wondering what happens if someone starts showing signs of it or if indeed they have it?? Will those that are showing signs be tested by the company or by the NHS? If someone does have it who then gets quarantined within that persons respective household?? For example my daughter works at the same place I do but up in the office but if one of us should get it does that then mean that neither of us can be in work for 14 days and what about others in the house? My son and his girlfriend both work for Asda and if they are in contact with someone who has it or could have it what happens then?? Are we all supposed to be on lockdown/isolation for 14 days?? Then of course we have the Grandkids to consider and my other daughter?? 

I am assuming of course that things would still be in very much 'take your chances' type scenario for the time being at least but that represents a major headache all round and doesn't even take into consideration that any one of us could pick it up at anytime and you can't keep going into a lockdown/isolation type scenario every time that happens surely??? I have also read that some people are capable of picking this up twice although I have zero data to back this up so not sure if or how often this has happened?? 

If we consider that this may well be part and parcel of our 'new normal' lives for a good while there are far more questions than we have answers for at the moment..  

 

If someone has symptoms they should be tested and then everybody they've been in contact with must isolate and potentially be tested. If the system is set up properly.

I just don't see how offices can exist any time soon. The whole rotating staff is still a recipe for business disaster. Safest option is office staff don't mingle full stop.

[nudge+]

2 minutes ago, Kowabunga said:

In terms of providing additional 'hope', there is also suggestion/speculation that having passed common colds caused by certain coronaviruses different from SARS-CoV-2 may offer partial immunity to some extent as it has been reported the existence of SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells among individuals not exposed to COVID-19.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

 

Yes, read that earlier today as well! Cross-reactive T cells are very good news. There was also another study (in pre-print) that suggests the same thing, so it's definitely encouraging.

 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

48 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

If someone has symptoms they should be tested and then everybody they've been in contact with must isolate and potentially be tested. If the system is set up properly.

I just don't see how offices can exist any time soon. The whole rotating staff is still a recipe for business disaster. Safest option is office staff don't mingle full stop.

That's what should happen. Unfortunately, common sense doesn't exist with some managers.

My mate and his old man (they work at the same place) are being asked to go into work now despite being able to work from home with no issues. His missus is a healthcare worker as well which doesn't help matters. 

[carefreeluke]

9 hours ago, Carnivore Chris said:

A lass I used to know when I was younger has recently just found her 16 year old son hanging. Fucking horrible news. I didn't know him personally(not like that matters) but I knew his mother from when I was younger and she lived near me. It makes you wonder if this has any relation to the current situation?

I mean suicide is scarily high among young males in this country as it is, but it makes you wonder what role this could have played. It's absolutely dreadful news either way, no young lad should be taking their life.

 

 

 

Sorry to hear that mate. Tragic news.

More time to yourself, more time to think, naturally, I imagine this crisis is also having a big impact on people's mental health too.

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Harvsky said:

If someone has symptoms they should be tested and then everybody they've been in contact with must isolate and potentially be tested. If the system is set up properly.

I just don't see how offices can exist any time soon. The whole rotating staff is still a recipe for business disaster. Safest option is office staff don't mingle full stop.

Our company has 400 people and in an open plan office, a maximum of only 30 people are planned to be allowed in to the office at any one time. That tells you the kind of cuts access to offices are to be expected perhaps? Any person not of that 30 would be restricted from just going to the office on a whim, and would have to ring up in advance so anything they do have will be left at reception for them to pick up, to minimise actually going in to the workspace. 

[MUFC]

I reckon office employees will love working from home. Not having managers hovering over you, none of the arse lickers grassing on you and none of them micro managing cunts.

[Harry]

2 hours ago, MUFC said:

I reckon office employees will love working from home. Not having managers hovering over you, none of the arse lickers grassing on you and none of them micro managing cunts.

I manage 9 people in this situation.

2 of my team are struggling with the lack of social contract. One lives alone, the other with a partner.

Another 4 of them are parents going insane with young kids out of childcare or school completely disrupting their day, and with them needing to take leave or work till midnight to make up the lost time.

[Stan]

58 minutes ago, MUFC said:

I reckon office employees will love working from home. Not having managers hovering over you, none of the arse lickers grassing on you and none of them micro managing cunts.

It's not always so rosy. There are plenty of advantages as there are disadvantages to working from home. 

But it's something people will need to learn to manage and deal with for the next few months at least... 

[RandoEFC+]

Working from home is fucking shite.

[Burning Gold]

14 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Herd immunity. They want to cocoon the vulnerable (the tactic that argubly didn't work in Sweden) whilst slowly infecting the community in a so called managed way with kids and their parents being considered as the utilitarian target.

What is often forgotten is that the reason for lockdown in the west was not to stop the virus it was to prevent the health care service collapsing. 

Now health care hasn't collapsed the argument should be returning to a question of do you spread death out over time (Sweden, Netherlands) or is there a case for complete suppression (New Zealand, South Korea).

The UK is so culturally toxic that we'll probably not have that conversation publicly, I expect the government will attempt some sort of PR balance.

A part of me thinks that's what they're doing at the moment with the current 'lockdown-lite' that they're not really enforcing anyway.

As you say, they can't acknowledge it publicly, so they issue conflicting guidance and lift the most stringent restrictions while leaving in relatively meaningless limitations, and then let nature take its course.

The big test will be when they decide to reopen pubs, shops, etc. because you have to keep some level of control

2 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Working from home is fucking shite.

I hate it. Both in terms of barely speaking to anyone, and in terms of it being that much harder to get things done. I've seen a lot of people saying that a positive of this situation is that maybe we'll all get to work from home by default in future. They can very much get to fuck

[Devil-Dick Willie]

I got asked a detailed question last day of uni semester (from home of course) my answer was "I'm sitting in my comfy chair wearing boxers secretly watching TV. How the fuck am I supposed to answer that?"

Working and studying from home sucks 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, MUFC said:

I reckon office employees will love working from home. Not having managers hovering over you, none of the arse lickers grassing on you and none of them micro managing cunts.

It's hit and miss, in my experience - and in the experience of some of my coworkers.

But I think many of the pros are outweighed by the number of times I constantly think this:

18 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Working from home is fucking shite.

I think the virus has shown society that working from home and telecommuting doesn't necessarily mean a great drop-off in productivity (weirdly, some places have experienced record productivity). But there is a lot that I'd have an easier time with working at the office. There's a lot I was a bit prepared for because sometimes I have to take work home regardless. But still, there's been more times than I would have thought where I'd prefer to be in the office.