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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

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A few people have caught the virus and they're being treated in the Liverpool royal hospital just down the road from me, Scary stuff.

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16 minutes ago, ...Dan said:

 

Of a sample size of 787 beer drinkers. 

CNN - 38% of Americans 

xD

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4 hours ago, Cicero said:

Of a sample size of 787 beer drinkers. 

CNN - 38% of Americans 

xD

For the record, my post is assuming the survey was just a "yes/no" question but...

Yeah that's obviously not a big enough sample size to be able to claim it "speaks for all Americans" with any high confidence level (you'd need a sample size of 38,412 for a survey with a 95% confidence level & .5 confidence interval). But that's a ridiculous amount of people and I've never ever heard of any kind of survey polling that tests that many people. Granted, typically these surveys break people down more into particular groups.

But with a 95% confidence level & a confidence interval of 3.5 (the higher the confidence interval, the less certainty there is about the population size) you'd only need a sample size of 784 for the US proximation (which this goes beyond, so this survey better confidence interval than 3.5).

So small sample sizes don't necessarily mean the survey doesn't show anything useful. Otherwise surveys would probably never be conducted because they'd be prohibitively expensive.

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Well the makers of Corona beer already reported a loss of $170 Million in the last 2 months so there you go...

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12 minutes ago, nudge said:

Well the makers of Corona beer already reported a loss of $170 Million in the last 2 months so there you go...

Shit beer anyway 

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

For the record, my post is assuming the survey was just a "yes/no" question but...

Yeah that's obviously not a big enough sample size to be able to claim it "speaks for all Americans" with any high confidence level (you'd need a sample size of 38,412 for a survey with a 95% confidence level & .5 confidence interval). But that's a ridiculous amount of people and I've never ever heard of any kind of survey polling that tests that many people. Granted, typically these surveys break people down more into particular groups.

But with a 95% confidence level & a confidence interval of 3.5 (the higher the confidence interval, the less certainty there is about the population size) you'd only need a sample size of 784 for the US proximation (which this goes beyond, so this survey better confidence interval than 3.5).

So small sample sizes don't necessarily mean the survey doesn't show anything useful. Otherwise surveys would probably never be conducted because they'd be prohibitively expensive.

Nah I never take these surveys seriously, especially when they try and blatantly mislead. Surveying ‘beer drinkers’ and pulling it off as Americans. What about those that don’t drink? Or those that don’t drink beer?  Sample size also shows no characteristics regarding age, gender, IQ, etc. Just ‘beer drinkers’ and try to poorly represent it as 38% of all Americans. 

Edited by Cicero

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26 minutes ago, nudge said:

Well the makers of Corona beer already reported a loss of $170 Million in the last 2 months so there you go...

lol it's suddenly on offer everywhere here. 

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2 minutes ago, Tommy said:

lol it's suddenly on offer everywhere here. 

Same here. Bought a crate last week; it's shitty as beer but goes great with spicy food hehe.

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22 minutes ago, Cicero said:

Nah I never take these surveys seriously, especially when they try and blatantly mislead. Sample size shows no characteristics regarding age, gender, IQ, etc. Just ‘beer drinkers’ and try to poorly represent it as 38% of all Americans. Poor attempt. 

I don't think there's anything misleading about it, other than the fact they don't mention the survey's confidence level, confidence intervals, or standard deviation. But I suspect most people aren't going to give a shit about statistics terms, let alone understand them.

Here they took a sample of "beer drinking Americans" - which is the target demographic for Corona beer, as that article indicates that Corona is heavily dependent on the US market. There's a lot of different characteristics that are encompassed in Americans who drink beer - so there's no reason to really ask the respondents their age, gender, IQ, etc... because they don't really care about these sub-demographics. They're looking to take a sample of beer drinking Americans, it's done by a PR firm that's probably been hired by Corona to ask this question to see if the virus has anything to do with their drop-off in sales.

I don't think it's a poor attempt, it's just how you conduct a survey. Obviously a higher sample size would make things better. They probably should mention the confidence levels and all of that stuff that lets you really interpret the data from these surveys in the news - and more people should probably learn about what these things are and what they mean.

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I don't think there's anything misleading about it, other than the fact they don't mention the survey's confidence level, confidence intervals, or standard deviation. But I suspect most people aren't going to give a shit about statistics terms, let alone understand them.

Here they took a sample of "beer drinking Americans" - which is the target demographic for Corona beer, as that article indicates that Corona is heavily dependent on the US market. There's a lot of different characteristics that are encompassed in Americans who drink beer - so there's no reason to really ask the respondents their age, gender, IQ, etc... because they don't really care about these sub-demographics. They're looking to take a sample of beer drinking Americans, it's done by a PR firm that's probably been hired by Corona to ask this question to see if the virus has anything to do with their drop-off in sales.

I don't think it's a poor attempt, it's just how you conduct a survey. Obviously a higher sample size would make things better. They probably should mention the confidence levels and all of that stuff that lets you really interpret the data from these surveys in the news - and more people should probably learn about what these things are and what they mean.

They surveyed beer drinkers and beer drinkers only, and in classic CNN fashion they misled the audience by representing it as all Americans. 

Again, a poor attempt. 

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2 minutes ago, Cicero said:

They surveyed beer drinkers and beer drinkers only, and in classic CNN fashion they misled the audience by representing it as all Americans. 

Again, a poor attempt. 

Around 2/3 of Americans drink, 41% of them say they primarily drink beer; a sample size of only beer drinkers doesn't mean that it doesn't reflect a sample size of all Americans. It might indicate flawed sampling, but it can still be used to say "38% of Americans. But there's flaws in literally every sort of sampling like this.

It's more inaccurate to dismiss it as just false statistics you can't take seriously. Considering some of the crazy shit that so many people out there believe, it's not that outlandish that over 1/3 of Americans think coronavirus is caused by a Mexican beer.

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49 minutes ago, nudge said:

Same here. Bought a crate last week; it's shitty as beer but goes great with spicy food hehe.

And it's a great "dad joke" to take a picture of it and telling your friends "huheuheu, I've got Corona." 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Around 2/3 of Americans drink, 41% of them say they primarily drink beer; a sample size of only beer drinkers doesn't mean that it doesn't reflect a sample size of all Americans. It might indicate flawed sampling, but it can still be used to say "38% of Americans. But there's flaws in literally every sort of sampling like this.

It's more inaccurate to dismiss it as just false statistics you can't take seriously. Considering some of the crazy shit that so many people out there believe, it's not that outlandish that over 1/3 of Americans think coronavirus is caused by a Mexican beer.

No. It can't xD. The survey is for beer drinkers. You can't take a sample size this small and try and pull it off as an entire nation, without even showing the statistical analysis. That is why I said demographics are important in all this.  For example, what was the average IQ of this sample size of beer drinkers?  For all we know they could've sampled 700 idiots who haven't a high school diploma. 

Again, I accept the flaws and inconsistencies small survey samples potentially have, but to completely mislead a viewing audience without considering the context of the survey, is unethical. That is the main issue. 

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Midnight's update for international cases outside of mainland China in the last 24 hours (00:00 to 24:00 CET Feb 28):

1070 new cases and 18 deaths:

  • South Korea - 571 new cases and 3 deaths;
  • Italy - 234 new cases and 4 deaths;
  • Iran - 143 new cases and 8 deaths;
  • Japan - 35 new cases and 1 death;
  • France - 19 new cases;
  • Spain - 11 new cases;
  • Germany - 6 new cases;
  • Bahrain, Switzerland - 5 new cases each;
  • UK, Sweden, Israel - 4 new cases each;
  • USA, Malaysia, Austria - 3 new cases each;
  • Taiwan, Canada, Kuwait, Croatia, Norway, Romania, Mexico - 2 new cases each;
  • Thailand, Australia, Finland, Iraq, Greece, Georgia, Denmark, Netherlands, Nigeria, Lithuania, New Zealand, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Monaco - 1 new case each.
  • 2 former passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship also passed away (a Japanese woman and a British man).

Eight countries reported their first ever cases today (Nigeria, Lithuania, New Zealand, Belarus, Mexico, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Monaco). 

Current total: 5346 cases and 88 deaths in 60 countries.

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Do you have any info about the new deaths & the ages of the victims, or no?

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Do you have any info about the new deaths & the ages of the victims, or no?

Only few details as most countries don't reveal much via official channels; but overall it's mostly the elderly or those with weakened immune systems and pre-existing medical conditions. There have been very few reports of younger healthy people passing away; and those are usually doctors/nurses so might have something to do with exposure too.

South Korea's 3 deaths today were three women; 62, 93 and 70 years old.
The average age of all 34 deaths in Iran is reported to be over 60.
The Japanese citizen/former Diamond Princess passenger who passed away today was also in her 70s.

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Credit to the authorities here for handling the outbreak, seeing we have a border with both China and Iran and quiet a lot of people travel to and from these countries it's surprising we were one of the last countries in the neighborhood to have a confirmed case and they also recovered.

We clearly don't have the resources and the facilities to handle a mass outbreak god forbid if it happens.

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A member of parliament has died in Iran due to corona

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10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

BBC are saying there are far more deaths in Iran than being reported, according to hospital sources: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053

At least 210 according to the beeb! Hope that's not true, but I certainly trust the BBC more than the Islamic Republic of Iran.

There seems to be some speculation about Iran using corticosteroids to treat the virus, suppressing the bodies immune response in such a way that more succumb to the pneumonia. 

Or maybe their numbers are much higher because they have many more infected than they've been able to test. When it started spreading in China there were also regular reports of people (medical staff etc.) being skeptical about the reported numbers, saying they were much lower than reality. Apparently many potential cases weren't included in the official count because they died before they could be tested. In the end it all comes down to the testing capacity. If you don't test, you don't officially have confirmed cases/deaths.

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5 minutes ago, nudge said:

There seems to be some speculation about Iran using corticosteroids to treat the virus, suppressing the bodies immune response in such a way that more succumb to the pneumonia. 

Or maybe their numbers are much higher because they have many more infected than they've been able to test. When it started spreading in China there were also regular reports of people (medical staff etc.) being skeptical about the reported numbers, saying they were much lower than reality. Apparently many potential cases weren't included in the official count because they died before they could be tested. In the end it all comes down to the testing capacity. If you don't test, you don't officially have confirmed cases/deaths.

What are the chances for someone who recovers can get infected again ?

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On 28/02/2020 at 00:59, nudge said:

Midnight's update for international cases outside of mainland China in the last 24 hours (00:00 to 24:00 CET Feb 27):

960 new cases and 14 deaths:

  • South Korea - 505 new cases and 1 death;
  • Italy - 202 new cases and 5 deaths;
  • Iran - 106 new cases and 7 deaths;
  • Japan - 35 new cases and 1 death;
  • Germany - 22 new cases;
  • France - 20 new cases;
  • Kuwait - 17 new cases;
  • Spain - 10 new cases;
  • Switzerland  - 7 new cases;
  • UAE - 6 new cases;
  • Sweden - 5 new cases;
  • Hong Kong, Singapore, UK, Norway - 3 new cases each;
  • Oman, Iraq, Greece - 2 new cases each;
  • Lebanon, Israel, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Netherlands, San Marino - 1 new case each. 

Four countries reported their first ever cases today (Denmark, Estonia, Netherlands, San Marino). 

Current total: 4276 cases and 70 deaths in 52 countries.

 

Va3Z43P.png

 

Spain's up to about 45 now.

" Los 45 positivos por coronavirus confirmados en España en estos momentos se distribuyen de la siguiente manera: 10 en la Comunidad Valenciana, 10 en la Comunidad de Madrid, 8 en Andalucía, 6 en Cataluña, 5 en Canarias, 3 en el País Vasco, 2 en Castilla y León y 1 en Baleares."

Edit: In fact, make that 48 now. It's rising quite quickly there now:-

"El periodista de TVE Ferrán Garrido informa de tres nuevos casos de coronavirus en la Comunidad Valenciana. Por tanto, el número de contagios activos en España se eleva a 48 personas, diez de ellos confirmados en las últimas horas: tres en la Comunidad Valenciana, tres en Madrid, dos en Cataluña, uno en Baleares y uno en el País Vasco."

I can see my trip going wrong somehow, either via there being cancelled flights(if Catalunya becomes infected on a similar scale to parts of Italy, which hopefully won't be the case) or banning public events(i.e football games), something is going to fuck up due to this, I can sense it.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Azeem said:

What are the chances for someone who recovers can get infected again ?

Found something on this

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050519/amp/Japanese-tour-bus-worker-recovered-coronavirus-tests-positive-AGAIN.html

It looks like body antivirals do not stop repeated infection how effective would a vaccine be ?

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