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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak


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Incredible what quarantine does to fight pollution.

Lima is usually gray and with lots of smog. These last few days it's been blue and you can see the mountains in the back from the coast, something not common here. Apparently it has helped combat pollution and it's not just a rare sunny day because it's still summer.

The birds have also returned to the beach and are flying in flocks.

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8 hours ago, Carnivore Chris said:

There's no proof, but It probably started in China.

For COVID? Or Spanish flu? Because the first case of Spanish flu was recorded in the US. But yeah for this COVID, it pretty clearly seems to have originated in China.

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Bloody hell, I ordered 2 asthma pumps from the docs last week and the local chemist would pick them up from the surgery as per normal and deliver them here, they have not arrived yet and tried ringing up the chemist shop but got no answer as the phone was permanently engaged, I rung my surgery up and the receptionist there said the chemist shop was inundated with phone calls so they took the phone off the hook.

Plus she said the driver who normally delivers has been tested as positive and is now in isolation and I will have to arrange to pick the prescription up myself or arrange for someone else to, looks like our son will have to drive me up there to pick them up, my other prescriptions are due shortly too and one of them is my COPD pump, I have 14 days puffs in the one in the medicine cupboard.  

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8 hours ago, IgnisExcubitor said:

 

They have gone a step further. Their media houses are pushing the blame on US army or even Italy as the source of virus.

 

This is not the Chinese making it up though. They are quoting what Dr. Giuseppe Remuzzi -  a respected medical expert and Italy's leading clinical researcher - said during an interview with the NPR (American media) originally.

"And it's now emerging that the virus had been spreading for months before it was detective. I talked to Dr. Giuseppe Remuzzi, who's been talking to family doctors. They told him they saw cases that looked like severe pneumonia already last November and December. That's before the world even became aware of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

GIUSEPPE REMUZZI: That they remember having seen very strange pneumonias, very severe, particularly in old people, in December and even in November. It means that the virus was circulating at least in Lombardy before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/818797687/morning-news-brief

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s

 


It's also not the only source and not the first time it's suggested either. Phylogenetic analysis shows the same thing and it seems to be widely agreed upon in the medical circles in Italy. This is what Maria Rita Gismondo, Italy's virologist from Sacco di Milano hospital said in an Italian interview in early March:

"Is it true that the virus had already arrived in Italy in November last year and therefore before the first atypical cases of pneumonia were discovered in China?

"This is well established, it clearly emerges from our studies at the University of Milan and from those of other groups of scientists."

How was it possible to trace the presence of the virus before it was discovered?

“These studies are based on genotyping, which is the photograph of the core of the virus. The comparison with the viruses circulated in China and in the rest of the world has made us understand that it is a single virus. We have genotyped many of them, starting the mapping of the virus path in Italy: from here we discovered that it was already present in our country since November last year, giving an explanation to many atypical cases of pneumonia "."

https://www.lanazione.it/firenze/cronaca/coronavirus-virologa-gismondo-1.5062536

 

It is not claiming that Italy is the source by the way; it suggests that the virus - regardless of its real origin - has most likely been circulating undetectable for much longer than first thought and then likely mutated into a much aggressive strain we're dealing with now.

The Chinese definitely were complacent and made mistakes (local authorities silencing doctors who were first reporting it and not taking them seriously) and very likely weren't completely transparent for sure  - but the leaders of other countries are equally to blame; in fact even more so - they knew about the existence of the new virus since the end of December and took absolutely no action to do anything about it while the Chinese were already quarantining millions of people in its cities. In fact many still don't do anything about it so go figure... They took it even less serious than the Chinese authorities at the start so I don't get it why people are not blaming their local authorities if they so badly need someone to blame for the situation we all find ourselves in at this moment. Pointing the finger at someone is absolutely not a top priority but I guess it makes people feel better about themselves and their own lack of action (not directed at you personally haha).

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2 minutes ago, Azeem said:

Must have some travel history with a more effected area

I haven't followed them as much as the other South Americans, but as far as I knew they took some decent measures. It's why I don't understand the argument that a country needs air traffic for the thing to explode in cases. Air traffic is how the virus can arrive to the country, but it spreads by few people. 

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Also, one of the military captains in Peru lost his job for slapping a citizen.

I have mixed feelings on this to be honest. In the past a Police or Military Soldier could get away with this sort of stuff, so it's good to see justice be enforced, but at the same time I appreciate his efforts in trying to make the curfew strict. Lots of people are supporting him in all this.

What I don't agree though is his comments on the citizen, calling him an ugly andean. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Inti Brian said:

Ecuador spiraled to 2nd highest in South America. Nearing 1000 cases. What happened there? :( 

Testing accessibility or facilities? Has that improved in the last week or so?

6 minutes ago, Azeem said:

Must have some travel history with a more effected area

Possibly.

2 minutes ago, Inti Brian said:

I haven't followed them as much as the other South Americans, but as far as I knew they took some decent measures. It's why I don't understand the argument that a country needs air traffic for the thing to explode in cases. Air traffic is how the virus can arrive to the country, but it spreads by few people. 

It's conceivable it could be to do with air traffic. You can't totally discount that.

A quick Google check shows that Ecuador's main airport in Quito takes in approx. 5m passengers per year. Average that out across 12 months and it works out about 429k passengers.

Have Ecuador shut their airports as a measure to stop the virus?

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Just now, Stan said:

It's conceivable it could be to do with air traffic. You can't totally discount that.

A quick Google check shows that Ecuador's main airport in Quito takes in approx. 5m passengers per year. Average that out across 12 months and it works out about 429k passengers.

Have Ecuador shut their airports as a measure to stop the virus?

I think they have. Though I'm not 100% sure. There is this video where a plane was rejected in Guayaquil coming from Spain, which may or may not suggest the airport was fully closed. 

And while air traffic is a huge factor in the virus spreading, it's not everything. I think Europe and USA have it worse because of leadership, complacency and air traffic, however a virus spreads when it's there if patient zero isn't isolated well. Even that might not be enough with something as contagious as this. The virus started in China and the spread there had nothing to do with air traffic. Similar could happen in other countries if they don't take the right measures. Why do you think I praise places like El Salvador?

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9 minutes ago, Inti Brian said:

The virus started in China and the spread there had nothing to do with air traffic.

Seeing @nudge's post earlier suggests it perhaps didn't 'start' in China and could have actually been detected in Lombardy way before it was detected in China...

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1 minute ago, Stan said:

Seeing @nudge's post earlier suggests it perhaps didn't 'start' in China and could have actually been detected in Lombardy way before it was detected in China...

Nah. It is still most likely to have started in China; just much earlier than it was discovered allowing it to circulate and spread throughout the world undetected. I believe most of the research seems to agree that China's actual patient zero got sick in November and hasn't even visited the infamous Wuhan wet market.

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Just now, Stan said:

Seeing @nudge's post earlier suggests it perhaps didn't 'start' in China and could have actually been detected in Lombardy way before it was detected in China...

Well yes, I'm not doubting that but my point is that the virus spreads easily from human to human and it can take a huge rise in cases if not isolated well. Even if there were no such thing as air traffic in this world, the virus can still spread within the country. That's my point. If the correct measures aren't taken in time, the country can see a huge rise in cases.

Countries with lots of air traffic are more at risk because more people potentially carrying the virus will arrive. There's no doubt about that. However, it started somewhere and it spread locally first before making it's way to other countries. If the right measures aren't taken it could become just as bad as the hotspot which could be in Wuhan or in Lombardy.

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