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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

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1 minute ago, Bluewolf said:

If you have stable system of reporting cases that come through on a daily basis even if they don't pick up those that fly under that radar then it's a reasonable indicator of peaks and troughs regardless of the true number that may be out there... It also needs to be considered that there will be people with mild symptoms on lockdown that have not been tested or confirmed that may now have passed the 14 day period without getting any worse and one would hope in a lot of cases have made full recoveries.. The sooner the testing kits are out there in larger numbers the better for peoples peace of mind.. 

That's pretty much the reason why Germany (and some other countries probably) are looking into carrying out mass testing for antibodies in order to find out who had the virus and developed antibodies so that the lockdown can be gradually lifted and people can start returning to their normal lives. But more accurate tests are desperately needed...

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Posted (edited)

Globally, experience seems to suggest a strict shutdown of non-essential movement is vital for buying time, and then then any kind of  a solution first requires aggressive testing.

In Europe, Italy wavered and is suffering for it. The UK briefly flirted with an alternative, realised it was based on several over-optimistic assumptions, and belatedly went into lockdown. We might still suffer from it. Germany acted promptly with testing from the start, and seems to be in best shape, but also could be influenced by strong starting position in terms of hospital capacity. 

America is doing next to nothing and could be facing disaster. 

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Aside from @nudge's graphs, I do like those FT graphs. Really easy to view the different trajectories and comparisons between countries.

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1 minute ago, Stan said:

Aside from @nudge's graphs, I do like those FT graphs. Really easy to view the different trajectories and comparisons between countries.

The ones I posted aren't mine either :) I had to stop with my own updates as it was taking way too much time once it spread everywhere and I just couldn't keep up with it anymore...

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One other thing that makes it tricky to assess Germany's situation is that it has by a large distance the biggest population in Europe (besides Russia or Turkey if you want to count them). Comparing it in absolute terms to the UK, France, or Italy isnt very useful since their population is about a fifth larger than any of those countries. 

At the same time, thinking proportionally also isn't that easy since Germany is doing so much more testing than everyone else.

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8 hours ago, binder said:

I am going to play Devil's Advocate here and ask how many people would normally have died in this time frame from influenza?  I assume this number is strictly people who have died from COVID19 and not all flu like illnesses.

So from stans numbers 5 a day on average compared to 300 or so today for corona from a small 17,000 confirmed cases. I'd assume the real case number is more like 170k. But if you added two zeros to that case count to 20m people you'd be talking about 30,000 deaths a day.

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18 minutes ago, nudge said:

The ones I posted aren't mine either :) I had to stop with my own updates as it was taking way too much time once it spread everywhere and I just couldn't keep up with it anymore...

This is why you don't work for the Financial Times. They wouldn't put up with this attitude :ph34r:

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49 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

 

A shame new Zealand aren't on there. Is anyone other than Australia posting attention to what they've done?

Gone very very hard and very early to a 3 week total shutdown even when zero fatalities nationally. Seem to be trying to totally stamp out corona and then go close to bank to normal... 

That will be done extreme of the Anglo world results set I'm guessing.

Edit. Just realised it's a death curve so if course they aren't on it

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12 minutes ago, Harry said:

A shame new Zealand aren't on there. Is anyone other than Australia posting attention to what they've done?

Gone very very hard and very early to a 3 week total shutdown even when zero fatalities nationally. Seem to be trying to totally stamp out corona and then go close to bank to normal... 

That will be done extreme of the Anglo world results set I'm guessing.

Edit. Just realised it's a death curve so if course they aren't on it

Bit hard to tell but this is their graph of cases 

IMG_20200328_234043.jpg

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8 hours ago, Harvsky said:

 


I think I’m right in saying that Germany don’t record covid  as the cause of death they record the underlying issue to the figures are skewed.

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Now China are reporting this as a "foreign virus" in their media, writing headlines such as "Beware of a second outbreak started by foreign garbage.” while you have people there being racially abused for having blue eyes. 

We all know how racist the Chinese are when in their own backyard, just ask any black person who visits their country(if you walked through the streets with a black kid, they'd all take pictures of them!!!!), but this just takes the piss. They just can't take responsibility for their own fuck up can they? This whole situation is entirely and 100% their fault and nobody should forget it. Whether their new wave of cases are imported or not, it's all their fault.

 

 

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One issue is that so many people never took it seriously early on. They were  still out and about and attending clubs and other social gatherings. 

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5 minutes ago, MUFC said:

One issue is that so many people never took it seriously early on. They were  still out and about and attending clubs and other social gatherings. 

This the problem everywhere, unfortunately.

@topic

We have begun to see a spike here in India, thanks to people's continued stupidity.

 

On aside note, nice explanation of a simple concept by a scientist who is currently working on Malaria and Tuberculosis.

 

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1 hour ago, Fairy In Boots said:


I think I’m right in saying that Germany don’t record covid  as the cause of death they record the underlying issue to the figures are skewed.

Yes. Even I read that online. Still, their handling the pandemic has been good so far.

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South Korea leading the way as far as response is concerned?

 

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1 hour ago, Fairy In Boots said:


I think I’m right in saying that Germany don’t record covid  as the cause of death they record the underlying issue to the figures are skewed.

Don't think that has actually been confirmed. The WHO have guidelines on reporting. I'd be surprised if Germany aren't following them.

Though I believe the UK aren't recording coronavirus deaths unless it happens in a hospital. 

9 hours ago, Harry said:

A shame new Zealand aren't on there. Is anyone other than Australia posting attention to what they've done?

Gone very very hard and very early to a 3 week total shutdown even when zero fatalities nationally. Seem to be trying to totally stamp out corona and then go close to bank to normal... 

That will be done extreme of the Anglo world results set I'm guessing.

Edit. Just realised it's a death curve so if course they aren't on it

Some Mediterranean islands similarly locked down hard and fast a couple of weeks ago.

In Cyprus you're not even allowed outside for exercise. All flights were banned. Nationals being brought back on government chartered flights were taken into the mountains and quarantined in hotels for 2 weeks. Businesses have to shut or owners face jail time. It seems to be working for them. Their peak is coming and likely low.

Almost overnight a couple of weeks ago Malta decided every tourist on the island isn't allowed out of their hotel room.

 

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7 minutes ago, MUFC said:

One issue is that so many people never took it seriously early on. They were  still out and about and attending clubs and other social gatherings. 

It's not easy for people to simply stop living their lives though and with it being a unique experience for many, especially in Europe, people don't realise the severity of it until it actually becomes a problem. It also happened so quickly and was impossible to stop. Other countries acted quicker once the virus arrived there but they were also able to learn from other country's mistakes.

 

1 minute ago, The Palace Fan said:

20200329_095430.thumb.jpg.cff103c947277f92e4c5e589bf52c129.jpg

This is spot on to be honest.

 

 

 

 

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Another 800 dead in Spain.

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From BBC:

A total of 30,982 people have died of coronavirus globally, with 669,312 confirmed cases, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

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Our son has just got back from doing some shopping for us and he said he avoided Tescos as they were only allowing one shopper in at a time, shop, then leave before the next person is allowed in and he said the queue was stretching from the back of the store's car park and onto the footpath way back, similar to this below.

download.thumb.png.dd8b2a3cdd6afd37b5750515feb3b4aa.png

 

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48 minutes ago, Machado said:

Another 800 dead in Spain.

13% of cases in Spain are also healthcare workers.

The great scandal in all of this when it is over is going to be how medical professionals didn't have the gear to be protected.

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3 minutes ago, nudge said:

A new virus is reported, China puts millions of people under quarantine.

Eastern Asia (a week later and with few own cases): this is serious, let's implement containment measures early on, even if it's restricting personal freedoms. 

Europe (two and half months later and with hundreds if not thousands infected in their own countries): let's gather in thousands for a Smurf festival, go on a holiday because it's cheap now, oh and don't forget to get that last cheeseburger before they close the joint because my non essential personal needs are obviously more important than anything else. 

xD

We had plenty of time and there was enough information to react in order to contain it. Both the politicians and the general public screwed up completely. The former for downplaying the threat and failing to implement the required measures early on, the latter for being ignorant and unwilling to make small personal "sacrifices" for the benefit of society. 

 

 

Watched a feature on 60 minutes tonight in Australia. The focus was what did China know when, and what did they tell the WHO and when.

Documents and evidence suggesting a problem first appearing in early to mid November, with approximately 6 weeks of keeping it under wraps, followed by advising the WHO around New year's but assuring them it wasn't transmittable from person to person, followed by using a lockdown in late Jan days after 5 million people from Hubei province jetting off for 

It's not the appropriate time to focus on the China aspect of all this, but their wrongdoing is massive, and the opportunity to ensure this thing never entered these countries in the first place was lost due to China.

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You just have to go back to the first month of this thread to see the western mindset. Blaming sensationalist newspapers, complaining about panic buying and trying to argue the fatality rate isn't bad.

 

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