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Premier League 2019/20 Relegation Run-In

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7/8 games to go.

The final straight for teams to survive (apart from Norwich - the Paderborn of the Premier League).

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Southampton (37pts), Everton & Newcastle (38) are most likely safe so they're exempt from this particular discussion!

Remaining fixtures - teams in italics are where they play another relegation rival...

(before anyone wonders why I've done this, I've just been on 'insurance training' meeting and this is far less boring than that xD)

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Newcastle, Burnley and Man City play 4 of the sides.

Final day between West Ham & Villa, as well as Watford vs West Ham could be decisive. 

 

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Current bottom three will remain the bottom three for me. Simple really.

Norwich have no defence and leak more than a sieve. Been a waste of time.

Villa have a poor attack. When I say poor, it's like a featherweight tickling a heavyweight in the ring. Waste of £130 odd million.

And Bournemouth have no real fight about them. I don't see them digging in for 90mins like say Brighton are capable of. Waste of what was a talented team.

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I really hope Aston Villa don't go down.

Would much rather see West Ham, Norwich, and Bournemouth.

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I quite like Bournemouth so would be good to see them stay up but not sure who other than Norwich and Villa I can see going down. Perhaps Watford.

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1 hour ago, Lucas said:

Current bottom three will remain the bottom three for me. Simple really.

Norwich have no defence and leak more than a sieve. Been a waste of time.

Villa have a poor attack. When I say poor, it's like a featherweight tickling a heavyweight in the ring. Waste of £130 odd million.

And Bournemouth have no real fight about them. I don't see them digging in for 90mins like say Brighton are capable of. Waste of what was a talented team.

I feel like West Ham have little fight about them, considering the apparent quality they have on the pitch. Not much, but still more than Bournemouth. I can't pick out of them and Villa as to who might go down.

Think Brighton are fine, just about. As are Watford. Both seem well organised and have more than adequate managers in to get them safe, especially Watford.

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Did Villa spend a massive amount of money over the summer in preparation to avoiding exactly what is happening?

Is it not possible that the long term ramifications of spending such massing amounts of money to just get relegated leads to further agony?

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Can’t see West Ham staying up. 11/30 games they’ve failed to score in and with Haller not even back in training yet, they don’t look like scoring, which is an issue as they have only kept 6/30 clean sheets all season, so they need to be scoring 2+ to have any chance of winning games. 

Their other out and out striking option is Ajeti, who has only played eight games all season and not scored. They’re turning to playing Antonio out of position instead of turning to him, so they clearly don’t fancy him. 

Norwich will go with them, the other space is likely to be Villa/Bournemouth. 

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45 minutes ago, Eco said:

Did Villa spend a massive amount of money over the summer in preparation to avoiding exactly what is happening?

Is it not possible that the long term ramifications of spending such massing amounts of money to just get relegated leads to further agony?

They've spent massive for past few seasons. Most Championship clubs try it in the hope of getting promoted. The saying here is that promotion to the Premier League is the most rewarding and biggest win financially.

The parachute payments (I think they're still around) pay up to £90m/year for 4 years after a team gets relegated. That can be a huge amount but as we've seen with a lot of clubs, it can lead to mismanagement if the owners only see promotion as an investment and not willing to actually better a club. That's why I'm so glad our owners are shrewd as fuck and didn't jump once promotion was gained knowing they'd made their money and seen returns on the investment. 

Fulham probably the most recent example of spending loads to get up then crashing back down because they weren't good enough.

Regardless of spending big, bad owners/bad management can have long term ramifications anyway. The flip side being if you stay up after spending big anyway, it's a gold-mine when it comes to PL money - finances from TV rights are huge. 

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I would like Bournemouth staying up at the expense of West Ham, not because of the West Ham supporters as I have friends who are Hammer supporters and my old man supported them it's because of the owners Sullivan & Gold and Aston Villa has had more managers than a crumpet with holes. 8 managers in 10 years, I would imagine them going down and they get rid of Dean Smith next.

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Between West Ham, Bournemouth and Villa I can’t tell who’s the least shite. I think the relegation battle will go down to the wire because these 3 are all pretty dire looking. Honestly everyone by the relegation places is also lucky that Norwich just look completely lost - early on in the season they had that fighting spirit and played expansive football. Now they just look shite and maybe being rooted to the bottom for so long has eroded all of their confidence. But it’s certainly good news for all the other sides at the bottom end of the table.

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6 games remaining for the bottom clubs, and it's quite an interesting race. Here are the teams that I consider to be in contention for relegation.

 

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I don't see a way for Norwich to avoid anything but doom, but only 6 points separate 19th from 15th.

This upcoming weekend isn't pretty for these teams, but we do have a solid relegation 6 pointer, where Norwich host Brighton to kick off week 33. Certainly a win here might mean that Brighton are save from relegation and live to fight another year.

West Ham pay a visit to Newcastle, where the Toons have nothing to play for, but have looked good since securing another year in the EPL. Newcastle have been playing really well recently, and should be in for a fight as they play the Hammers who just looked really deadly against Chelsea.

The rest...are all cringe worthy affairs...

Watford travel to Chelsea
Aston Villa travel to Liverpool
and Bournemouth travel to Manchester United

As the year concludes, it looks very likely that the bottom 3, will remain so.

Norwich are awful, and have no chance to stay up.

Bournemouth have looked awful recently, and finish with matches against Manchester United, Spurs, Leicester, City, and Southampton. Fucking Yikes.

Aston Villa may not have it worse, but it's not easy as they finish with Liverpool, Manchester United, Palace, Everton, and Arsenal.

West Ham and Watford both have much easier routes to end the season. I just can't imagine any of the bottom three winning enough points to remain in the EPL next year.

Thoughts?

 

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4 hours ago, Stan said:

Fuck off mate.

 

I must of had more vodka than I thought because I swear I searched for this.

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6 minutes ago, Eco said:

I must of had more vodka than I thought because I swear I searched for this.

1 warning point given. 

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2 minutes ago, Stan said:

1 warning point given. 

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West Ham need shooting if they drop from here.

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I think Bournemouth are definitely gone, they've lost two of their more winnable home games and have a tragic run-in. Unless they pull off a Sunderland and get a load of unlikely results they're fucked. 

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44 minutes ago, Dan said:

West Ham need shooting if they drop from here.

Not really. They've been poor all season and only have a 3-point lead over the bottom 3. Villa play Liverpool next so they shouldn't worry about them too much. Bournemouth play us soon so maybe that's where they grab their points to give them hope...

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18 hours ago, Stan said:

Not really. They've been poor all season and only have a 3-point lead over the bottom 3. Villa play Liverpool next so they shouldn't worry about them too much. Bournemouth play us soon so maybe that's where they grab their points to give them hope...

West Ham have the best run in by a mile in my opinion. I also think they're slightly less useless than Bournemouth & Villa.

It's surely Bournemouth, Villa & Norwich now. Watford just don't seem to be pulling away though - that Liverpool win is oddly about their only win in the last 10 games or something like that.

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Fixtures this weekend

Norwich vs Brighton
Newcastle vs West Ham
Chelsea vs Watford
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Man Utd vs Bournemouth

If anyone fancies a flutter, it's 4632/1 for all away wins xD 

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Interesting to see those who said they felt West Ham would drop yet in the last two games they have shown plenty to suggest they can pull clear of the current bottom three. Can't see them dropping at all.

Originally I said it was the current three and I'm convinced it won't change from what it is now. Watford are the dodgy one's but they have that ability to pull results out their locker out of nowhere for me.

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The bottom three are set now I think. The games for Villa are difficult and you can only really see two of them that they have a shot at winning....Bournemouth and Norwich are gone, they are hopeless. 
 

Watford are lucky here, they’ve been a bit shit since the restart and have picked up 1 point is it? Lucky that the three below are so useless with next to no fight about them. 

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Feel like we'll be the team that give Bournemouth a glimmer of hope giving them a win but they don't do anything with it and still go down. 

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It's over really. Villa and Bournemouth are probably gone. Both would do well just to get 6 more points. 

Watford and West Ham are unlikely to be caught if they win just 1 of their last 4. 

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Bournemouth and Villa simply have to win this evening to stand any chance of survival, otherwise it’s all over with, IMO. 

Bournemouth looked abject against United at the weekend, though Tottenham have been poor for much of the season. It’s potentially one of those games that are a good advert for why all games aren’t televised. Villa have looked woeful all season, unfortunately, so I don’t fancy their chances this evening. 

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12 points left on offer for the season.

Norwich will be officially relegated if they don't win. If they draw, and Watford avoid defeat against Newcastle, then that will relegate them too.

Brighton can confirm survival if win and Bournemouth/Villa fail to do so. 

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1 down. Norwich becomes the first team to be relegated from the Premier League five times.

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West Ham vs Watford next Friday is a 6-pointer. They probably both will survive but a win for either will secure it.

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