Russia and Ukraine

[Azeem]

On 12/09/2022 at 16:57, Beelzebub said:

If they would invade Russia back then it would be a formal declaration of war.

No official confirmation but the situation will become bleaker if true, attacking Russia back within its own territory - all out war.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 12/09/2022 at 04:57, Beelzebub said:

If they would invade Russia back then it would be a formal declaration of war.

Hasn't Ukraine already declared it a war, it's Russia that hasn't.

Armenia's triggered CSTO asking Russia for assistance & Georgia's holding a referendum to see whether the population supports driving out the Russians from Ossetia. Looks like Azerbaijan and Georgia are either taking advantage of how stretched Russia is, or they've been told by a west this is a good time to press their claims.

Because realistically, Russia's not going to be able to keep up a fight against a NATO equipped Ukraine, while also needing to protect its allies under CSTO and protect its separatist republic it played a part in setting up. Putin cant project strength if his peacekeepers are essentially worthless.

But if Russia does declare a war, they can start conscription and start throwing bodies at these conflicts. But that's now potentially 4 fronts of active conflict for Russia - Ukraine, Azerbaijan-Armenia (where they're meant to be keeping the peace), and Syria (propping up Assad), and potentially Georgia.

Even with conscription, I don't think Russia can enjoy success on all fronts. Especially as Georgia would likely receive NATO backing as well.

[Azeem]

The military industry complex needed new theatres after wars in the 'Muslamic' world were becoming too dodgy to sell to the public. So they've turned to this region which had fault lines to exploit and considering both parties have a war chest to spend on it will be very profitable for the contractors. 

[Azeem]

Putin will make a public address today. Most likely regarding formally annexing the captured Ukrainian lands. Macron is allegedly trying to phone him. 

[Tommy]

 

[OrangeKhrush]

China is calling on ceasefire talks as nuclear conflict talks have escalated.   

[Azeem]

I take Putin's nuclear threats seriously. He comes from intelligence background and people who stay in these systems long enough have a very preemptive perception of threat. Whatever we may think of Ukraine joining NATO he perceived it as a threat and invaded without bluffing. If he thinks some kind of tactical nuke is necessary he won't budge.

[Azeem]

A broad freedom of action with the concomitant of ensuring peace. In any direct showdown between Russia and NATO either side will be tempted to take control of the Bosphorus. Turkey needs to ensure peace for its own safety foremost.

[Waylander]

Bizarrely given all these claims about escalation there has recently been a prisoner exchange. 

 

[Azeem]

1 minute ago, Waylander said:

Bizarrely given all these claims about escalation there has recently been a prisoner exchange. 

 

The chief command of Azov regiment will remain in Turkey under custody until the war ends.

[Waylander]

Just now, Beelzebub said:

The chief command of Azov regiment will remain in Turkey under custody until the war ends.

Had not heard that and do you know the reason for him going to Turkey?

[Azeem]

10 minutes ago, Waylander said:

Had not heard that and do you know the reason for him going to Turkey?

Literally both sides of these parties are going to Turkey for mutual security, Russian oligarchs and Ukrainian officials. Turkey for the tweet mentioned above enjoys some leverage that all parties must be patient with it. 

[OrangeKhrush]

so a referendum is to be passed declaring annexed lands as part of the RF.   Russia is to move approx 300k (modest expectation) into the Regions and secure northern and southern borders.  the also expect mobilisation of superior weaponry.

a tweet went up then got removed of an eye witness account of two Ukrainian Mig 29s flying CAPS getting shot down by a single su57 which avoids radar detection and old targeting systems cannot track the su57 meaning they rely on visual lock weapons making the su57 a ghost.   america has been concerned about the SU57 for a few years and only have limited knowledge on its total efficiency.

[Azeem]

Gas leakages by possible saboteurs. Europe made a blunder by putting its energy needs in the hands of Russia and security needs in the hands of U.S. Two competing continental powers. 

[OrangeKhrush]

7 minutes ago, Beelzebub said:

Gas leakages by possible saboteurs. Europe made a blunder by putting its energy needs in the hands of Russia and security needs in the hands of U.S. Two competing continental powers. 

the us has become a technocracy and threat to the free world.  Russia have always been somewhat shady so you know what to expect

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

Gas leakages by possible saboteurs. Europe made a blunder by putting its energy needs in the hands of Russia and security needs in the hands of U.S. Two competing continental powers. 

On the one hand, I can understand why western Europe's put so much reliance on the US for defense. WW2 ended and the Cold War began - no European country was really quite in a position to properly defend itself from Russia.

And honestly, seeing what the US (and NATO, but a lot of the heavy lifting has been done by the US) has been able to do to Russia by arming Ukraine to the teeth... I'd say Western Europe can look at that and quite comfortably say relying on the US for defense is a pretty sound decision. Russia's only gotten to experience a fraction of first hand experience seeing why the US doesn't provide it's citizens healthcare... and it's made the "might" of the Russian military look a lot less mighty in less than a year.

I think it's pretty mental actually, they've managed to make NATO look like it has a purpose again after the end of the Cold War... and not too long after pretty prominent politicians had publicly questioned the purpose of NATO. And now it's pretty clear if Russia did want to start shit with a NATO country, they'd have to be prepared to get nukes otherwise they'd get humiliated on the battlefield.

I still think it was most evident that Europe needed to do something about its energy dependence on Russia in 2014. Or even before that, when Russia rolled into Georgia. That was really all the evidence needed to show that Russia is a European power that has aims of expansion into the rest of Europe. But rather than actually address that, Europe remained reliant on Russia.

A big problem, for Europe... but really everyone in the world.... is that there's a hell of a lot of issues with any of the big energy producers. None are really ideal to do business with. There's a tradeoff between maintaining dignity, morality, and standing up for "western ideals" and keeping energy affordable.

[Azeem]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Russia's only gotten to experience a fraction of first hand experience seeing why the US doesn't provide it's citizens healthcare... 

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think it's pretty mental actually, they've managed to make NATO look like it has a purpose again after the end of the Cold War... and not too long after pretty prominent politicians had publicly questioned the purpose of NATO.

There is the other side of this much security dependency on U.S. As I said in an earlier post, American military complex comes with a cost of having some war theatre anywhere at everytime. It's not far fetched to say there was some poking by America which Putin found provocative. 

It's normal for countries to have ambivalent relations like in this case where there are both pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia sentiments within one country and even families. But it didn't need to escalate this much, there needs to be pragmatism regarding conflict resolution which I think Europe lacks compared to Asia, Africa and South America because of bloated military complex of U.S. 

[OrangeKhrush]

American is in the business of mercs for hire,  but the United States is suffering it's worst enlist rates and it is leading to some alarms in the military hiarchy.   In a report that came out less than 7% of current Genz applicants are capable, that is a disaster waiting to happen.

[Waylander]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

American is in the business of mercs for hire,  but the United States is suffering it's worst enlist rates and it is leading to some alarms in the military hiarchy.   In a report that came out less than 7% of current Genz applicants are capable, that is a disaster waiting to happen.

You can bet the newer US citizens from poorer countries are in a better health state and get incentives to join up. Whether this can offset the longer trend is questionable.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

American is in the business of mercs for hire,  but the United States is suffering it's worst enlist rates and it is leading to some alarms in the military hiarchy.   In a report that came out less than 7% of current Genz applicants are capable, that is a disaster waiting to happen.

Now google the Wagner Group

[OrangeKhrush]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Now google the Wagner Group

they are like the azovs, these kinds of needs for hire are private hence the name, america is basically a nationalised need for hire.

[OrangeKhrush]

who conspired the nordstream attack?  I have my doubts Russia would as they can just turn the tap off and further wasting billions of dollars in lost gases makes no sense.   

this was orchestrated by the West that is pushing us closer to war.  there were benefits and interests at play here.  somehow like everyrhing it will get buried under beaurocratic red tape

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, OrangeKhrush said:

they are like the azovs, these kinds of needs for hire are private hence the name, america is basically a nationalised need for hire.

The Azov battalion was absorbed into the Ukraine military a while ago, the original leadership hasn’t been affiliated with them for a while. So not really like them at all.

Yeah except US soldiers (not mercs) when attacked by a much larger force of Wagner mercs in Syria, they massacred the Wagner mercs at the Battle of Khasham.

And the Ukraine war is proving that even outdated US equipment is proving to be effective for a smaller and less advanced military on paper.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, OrangeKhrush said:

who conspired the nordstream attack?  I have my doubts Russia would as they can just turn the tap off and further wasting billions of dollars in lost gases makes no sense.   

this was orchestrated by the West that is pushing us closer to war.  there were benefits and interests at play here.  somehow like everyrhing it will get buried under beaurocratic red tape

If it was Russia, it sort of makes sense from an authoritarian ruler perspective. If he’s ousted, there’s no easy way for the oligarchs to return to printing money again.

If it was the West, it’s sort of a strange message to send to Russia. I suppose it would let them know that they don’t care if Putin decides to turn off the taps in the winter.

We’ll never know though.

[OrangeKhrush]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If it was Russia, it sort of makes sense from an authoritarian ruler perspective. If he’s ousted, there’s no easy way for the oligarchs to return to printing money again.

If it was the West, it’s sort of a strange message to send to Russia. I suppose it would let them know that they don’t care if Putin decides to turn off the taps in the winter.

We’ll never know though.

If it is authoritarian then he controls the military and thus any indirection will be quelled by use of force.   I doubt it is Russian but rather western competing lines that drove this.