Russia and Ukraine

[Michael]

18 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

US isn't issuing visas to the Russians for UNSC meeting and Nuland is calling for arresting diplomats.

This is dangerous, breaking down of diplomatic communication would be the next big step towards nuclear war.

The Russian authorities have been threatening the use of nuclear weapons for more than a year now. They've threatened it over many different instances that have happened throughout this war and yet they still haven't used it. Putin and his government/allies know that starting a nuclear war would be suicide. They may be evil, but the majority of them are not mad. I am not saying that Russia won't start a nuclear war, I am just saying that it is extremely unlikely. Besides, the Ukrainian government and the majority of the Ukrainian people have made it clear, that this war will not end until Russia withdraws from every inch of Ukrainian sovereign territory. That of course includes the Donbass and Crimea. The Ukrainians have clearly not been unsettled by the threat of Russia using it's nuclear weapons, that's for sure.

 

 

[CaaC (John)+]

Quote

Blinding flash over Kyiv was probably meteor, says Ukraine space agency

A mysterious flash which lit up skies over Ukraine's capital on Wednesday night generated much speculation.........

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 15/04/2023 at 11:14, Michael said:

The Russian authorities have been threatening the use of nuclear weapons for more than a year now. They've threatened it over many different instances that have happened throughout this war and yet they still haven't used it. Putin and his government/allies know that starting a nuclear war would be suicide. They may be evil, but the majority of them are not mad. I am not saying that Russia won't start a nuclear war, I am just saying that it is extremely unlikely. Besides, the Ukrainian government and the majority of the Ukrainian people have made it clear, that this war will not end until Russia withdraws from every inch of Ukrainian sovereign territory. That of course includes the Donbass and Crimea. The Ukrainians have clearly not been unsettled by the threat of Russia using it's nuclear weapons, that's for sure.

 

 

The whole point of the UN is to keep an avenue of communications between the nations of the world - even between countries that don't have good relations (or in some cases, any relations at all). More specifically, it was meant to be a forum for global diplomacy between the 2 superpowers (USA & Russia) at the time and the rest of the world caught in between their nuclear standoff. But there's a reason that the Taliban's Afghanistan is even guaranteed a seat at the UN - that baseline guarantee of diplomacy available for all countries. Most everything else the UN does is... I don't want to say worthless... but it's close to worthless in comparison to the main purpose of the UN.

I agree with @Beelzebub in a sense, I don't particularly agree with the idea that Russia's threat of using nuclear weapons is/was serious. But I do agree that Russia's representatives should have an avenue for diplomacy at the UN, as all countries should. Regardless of their illegal war violating human rights.

I think there's a real danger in trying to cut off a country from the rest of the world - historically, it hasn't really worked out that well that removal of normal participation of global diplomacy and the global economy forces the change that the west wants to see. Only Apartheid South Africa comes to mind, tbh... and that's a country that's already in the western sphere of influence. With other more dangerous governments of hostile countries, backing those countries into a corner has only served to make them more hostile and gets them to strengthen their resolve in being more hostile and dangerous than ever. A more belligerent Russia's nuclear threats might be a lot more serious, and I suspect their resolve for belligerence and hostility will grow the more economically and diplomatically isolated they are. And ultimately, it's not just Ukrainians that need to worry about whether Russia launches nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, I think diplomacy with Russia is a fruitless endeavor for as long as Putin is around. But I'm not sure that justifies denying representatives from a nation on the UN Security Council (and a permanent member, for that matter) their ability to represent their country. And it'll undoubtedly be used as effective propaganda to point to how the west is constantly antagonistic towards Russia & will be used as justification for further Russian antagonism.

I think denying the visas feels like the right move morally and emotionally - but I think there's a case that denying a UNSC member their voice at the UN makes the world a bit more unsafe for everybody... and that means it's also not the most moral choice at all.

[Stan]

Oops!

Russian jet bombed it's own city  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, Stan said:

Oops!

Russian jet bombed it's own city  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370

That's genuinely hilarious on the one hand. On the other hand, I'm sure the two women injured are probably didn't deserve to get hurt.

It's a bit mental that it happened in the first place though. Really doesn't highlight any semblance of confidence.

[Beelzebub]

On 21/04/2023 at 01:04, Dr. Gonzo said:

I agree with @Beelzebub in a sense, I don't particularly agree with the idea that Russia's threat of using nuclear weapons is/was serious. But I do agree that Russia's representatives should have an avenue for diplomacy at the UN, as all countries should. Regardless of their illegal war violating human rights.

It's not about whether they are serious about nukes or not but about giving due respect to the threat. Ignorantly presuming that they are bluffing or Russia's nukes are outdated (which some Western media is espousing) is more escalation. In one year the last nuclear treaty, which obliged each side to inform the other about nuclear movements, is done and dusted leaving a trust gap. If communication channels are going to break down at this pace then more trust gaps will appear.

[OrangeKhrush]

the conflict seems to have guzzled out.  Per the US defense departments leaked dosier, the US underestimated Russia's defensive capabilities siting the artillery as superior.  They sites huge armor loses for Ukraine and due to the terrain being a giant slog meaning armor can only move on set routes making them easy to zero.

It also reported that Russia have inflicted massive destruction to UAVs now they have superior mobile surface to air vehicles on the fronts along with what is already good stationary surface to air capabilities now on the fronts has meant the Ukrainian air force is nullified

the most damning part of the dossier was Ukraine's own surface to air network is nearly completely destroyed and their air force is suffering saved losses to superior Russian modern aircraft.  thry had suggested more defensive support rather than offensive weapon support.

it's a stalemate, however it can escalate if western leaders continue with their strongarm tactics.  this faux war was just a push to arms, being very lucrative and probably to test just how serious Russia takes NATO encroachment.

[OrangeKhrush]

my favourite meme to come out was that image of a German leopard tank submerged in a slog and next to it an image of a German tiger tank submerged in a big during the battle of kursk, lessons not learnt

[Michael]

3 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

the conflict seems to have guzzled out.  Per the US defense departments leaked dosier, the US underestimated Russia's defensive capabilities siting the artillery as superior.  They sites huge armor loses for Ukraine and due to the terrain being a giant slog meaning armor can only move on set routes making them easy to zero.

It also reported that Russia have inflicted massive destruction to UAVs now they have superior mobile surface to air vehicles on the fronts along with what is already good stationary surface to air capabilities now on the fronts has meant the Ukrainian air force is nullified

the most damning part of the dossier was Ukraine's own surface to air network is nearly completely destroyed and their air force is suffering saved losses to superior Russian modern aircraft.  thry had suggested more defensive support rather than offensive weapon support.

it's a stalemate, however it can escalate if western leaders continue with their strongarm tactics.  this faux war was just a push to arms, being very lucrative and probably to test just how serious Russia takes NATO encroachment.

Just wait for the counter-offensive, it's on its way.

[OrangeKhrush]

Counter offensive ended with 3700+ losses to Ukrainian forces,  4 of the 6 German Leopard 2's destroyed, 72 Bradleys and estimated around 34 T72's,  Russia lost 52 men with 216 wounded,  losing 15 soviet era reservist division T72's.   The Russian's knew where and when it was coming because they set the bait,  the use of minefields and perfect dead zones to funnel in the Ukrainians while using kamakazi drones to destroy artillary and anti air allowing the Russian airforce free reign. 

The Military report that got intercepted before it could get burried by the Pentagon reported that they have underestimated Russian capabilities.   

It is time for a ceasefire before more Ukrainian lives are lost for arms contracts. 

[Michael]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Counter offensive ended with 3700+ losses to Ukrainian forces,  4 of the 6 German Leopard 2's destroyed, 72 Bradleys and estimated around 34 T72's,  Russia lost 52 men with 216 wounded,  losing 15 soviet era reservist division T72's.   The Russian's knew where and when it was coming because they set the bait,  the use of minefields and perfect dead zones to funnel in the Ukrainians while using kamakazi drones to destroy artillary and anti air allowing the Russian airforce free reign. 

The Military report that got intercepted before it could get burried by the Pentagon reported that they have underestimated Russian capabilities.   

It is time for a ceasefire before more Ukrainian lives are lost for arms contracts. 

Yeah, sure, lets believe whatever Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu says, I mean why on earth would he lie or spread Russian propaganda? Surely he would never inflate the number of Ukrainians killed in this counter-offensive?

I mean 3,700 Ukrainian soldiers killed and only 52 Russians killed makes perfect sense to me. It's the Russians who have the most sophisticated modern weapons, not the Ukrainians with their old rusting Soviet era military vehicles and weapons.

[OrangeKhrush]

5 minutes ago, Michael said:

Yeah, sure, lets believe whatever Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu says, I mean why on earth would he lie or spread Russian propaganda? Surely he would never inflate the number of Ukrainians killed in this counter-offensive?

I mean 3,700 Ukrainian soldiers killed and only 52 Russians killed makes perfect sense to me. It's the Russians who have the most sophisticated modern weapons, not the Ukrainians with their old rusting Soviet era military vehicles and weapons.

it wasn't a Russian source.  Much of the tactical failures were brought by the Washington post.  the Ukrainian 47th is NATO trained, equipped and walked into a trap.  one story on WaPo about a Ukrainian soldier who saw his entire platoon taken out by a Lancet and lost his arm.

the very same mistake Russia made in the early part of the conflict was made by Ukraine, they got bogged and funneled into a kill one.

 

[Michael]

3 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

it wasn't a Russian source.  Much of the tactical failures were brought by the Washington post.  the Ukrainian 47th is NATO trained, equipped and walked into a trap.  one story on WaPo about a Ukrainian soldier who saw his entire platoon taken out by a Lancet and lost his arm.

the very same mistake Russia made in the early part of the conflict was made by Ukraine, they got bogged and funneled into a kill one.

 

The fighting is extremely brutal on the front lines. Both sides have incurred a lot of losses, but by most accounts throughout this war, it has been reported that the Russians have incurred the most losses. As for the current counter-offensive, it would be good if you could post a link from the Washington Post claiming that the Ukrainians have lost 3,700 soldiers in this particular counter-offensive. The only person who I can find making the claim that 3,700 Ukrainian soldiers have died in this counter-offensive is Shoigu and his stooges.

[Harry]

Some big developments in the last 12 hours. It seems the head of Wagner Group has turned his forces on the Russian Ministry of Defence and has advanced back into Russia into Rostov on Don and taken control of the Southern Military District headquarters.

Fighting is now reported between Wagner and Russian troops in Voronezh indicating they may have pressed on beyond Rostov towards Moscow.

Best guess from pundits seem to be that he's trying to oust the Minister of Defence and military command, rather than against Putin.

[Michael]

9 hours ago, Harry said:

Some big developments in the last 12 hours. It seems the head of Wagner Group has turned his forces on the Russian Ministry of Defence and has advanced back into Russia into Rostov on Don and taken control of the Southern Military District headquarters.

Fighting is now reported between Wagner and Russian troops in Voronezh indicating they may have pressed on beyond Rostov towards Moscow.

Best guess from pundits seem to be that he's trying to oust the Minister of Defence and military command, rather than against Putin.

Indeed, Prigozhin and his Wagner Group forces have taken control of Rostov on Don and they are marching towards Moscow. He has complained for ages now about how a lot of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been ill-equipped and about the number of casualties that they have had. Prigozhin estimates that Russia loses 1,000 soldiers a day in Ukraine. It will be interesting to see what happens once Prigozhin and his mercenaries reach Moscow. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Michael

[Michael]

 

[Michael]

 

[Harry]

very strange 24 hours. Seems like he overestimated how many key players would take his side, and then cut a shitty deal to save himself.

But Putin looks bad from this... He announced publically there was no coming back from this for Prigozhin, then 6 hours later Lukashenko brokers a deal with all charges dropped and Putin is nowhere near it...

 

[CaaC (John)+]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

very strange 24 hours. Seems like he overestimated how many key players would take his side, and then cut a shitty deal to save himself.

Don't really get into all this but my impression was he tried to be the leader of the pack and others would follow and he would replace Putin as the man in charge of Russia, but that went all ape shit and I bet you there are others in the Kremlin just waiting for the right time and then replace Putin as the leader of Russia, these are my thoughts only and others may differ. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Embarrassing for Putin, so that’s good.

[Michael]

15 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Embarrassing for Putin, so that’s good.

Yes and you can imagine the unrest in the Kremlin right now after recent events.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 26/06/2023 at 02:28, Michael said:

Yes and you can imagine the unrest in the Kremlin right now after recent events.

I imagine the Kremlin's an utter shitshow right now and if Putin ever loses to power, there's going to be a few oligarchs playing real life game of thrones trying to position themselves best to be Russia's latest & greatest autocrat. Putin comes off as really weak here even though Wagner guy (not gonna attempt to spell his name) failed. He fled Moscow at the news of Wagner heading over - which I think really hurts his "strongman" image; compare that to Zelinsky turning down the US's offer of safe passage out of Ukraine after Russia invaded and it's not really a strong showing of Putin's confidence in his military or his support within the Kremlin.

[6666]

The US preparing to send cluster bombs to help escalat.. I mean solve the problem.

I hate these guys.

[Beelzebub]

9 hours ago, 6666 said:

The US preparing to send cluster bombs to help escalat.. I mean solve the problem.

I hate these guys.

Russia doesn't prohibit their usage either. The real reason behind this decision allegedly is that U.S is short on conventional ammunition so they are going for a stopgap solution. Which is crazy considering the $$$$$$$$$$ US spends upon weapons. 

The biggest revelation of this war has been that none of these 'superpower' militaries are actually what they show on paper. 

[OrangeKhrush]

i tend to ask myself if a army outnumbered the other 7 to 1, why are they constantly asking for munitions and vehicles.