The Relegation Battle 2022

[RandoEFC+]

Just now, The Palace Fan said:

You should be. We have a track record of relegating a good fan base in front of their fans, and when we do, we don't see them again.

Yeah you've only mentioned it three times now . I don't know if it's mathematically possible though realistically given that we'd have to be 4+ points adrift to be relegated from that fixture and not on the final day.

[The Palace Fan]

8 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Yeah you've only mentioned it three times now . I don't know if it's mathematically possible though realistically given that we'd have to be 4+ points adrift to be relegated from that fixture and not on the final day.

I was waiting for someone to acknowledge that mad statistic in this forum. Thank you.

What's Everton's record like at home on a weekday evening? Ive always presumed its good but ive never looked in to the data behind it and my opinion may be skewed by the Creed film.

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said:

I was waiting for someone to acknowledge that mad statistic in this forum. Thank you.

What's Everton's record like at home on a weekday evening? Ive always presumed its good but ive necer looked in to the data behind it and that may be skewed by the Creed film.

It seems like it's good based on my memories but I don't know if I'm stereotyping it. A quick glance over this season gives us:

Everton 3-1 Burnley - Benitez honeymoon.

Everton 1-4 Liverpool - Benitez nadir where he really should have been sacked.

Everton 2-1 Arsenal - Gray winner in injury time limbs.

Everton 2-0 Boreham Wood - count it if you want.

Everton 1-0 Newcastle - Iwobi 97th minute limbs.

Everton 1-1 Leicester - Richarlison late equaliser limbs.

So pretty good but the confirmation bias is strong.

[Danny]

7 hours ago, Stan said:

I think you were realistically safe a couple of weeks ago mate  

To an extent yeah, but it's easy to say that with confidence when it's not your club lol. Had we of lost today then we'd genuinely been in threat of getting caught up, especially with two tricky fixtures remaining in Everton and Leeds who are both fighting for their lives atm.

[OrangeKhrush]

more action in the relegation fight than for the title

[Dan+]

Looks like my 11 points for Everton was actually harsh on them. I've seen it before. When the chips are down things change.

Burnley go for me. I think Leeds will beat Chelsea.

[Lucas]

I can't see us beating Chelsea. I just think enough things are going against us now that it's a struggle to look for the positives. Feels to me like if we are going to do it, we need to rely on Burnley not winning any of their last three and maybe we can grab one win from somewhere.

To be fair, it's entirely plausable Burnley and us don't get another win and its a case a couple draws might be enough. Whatever happens, we have to better whatever they do now but optimism is wavering thin.

It feels like we need a big boost from somewhere at a time we're lower than a snake's belly.

[RandoEFC+]

Burnley have just had their magical mystery tour ended pretty abruptly and they have Spurs away next where I think they'll lose handily to be honest. They could then go into Villa away and Newcastle at home deflated but 4-6 points is still on the table for them there.

Leeds showed some resolve yesterday after going two behind and losing a man at least. If they can get a point against Chelsea, then perhaps it generates a bit of momentum and then Brighton at home and Brentford away aren't the worst fixtures to finish off. Brighton have hit some form just now though which isn't great timing for Leeds.

Bookies have us out as far as 12/1 to drop now I've seen. I don't feel nearly that confident but we have to go to Watford and fancy our chances of winning. Win that and we go 4 points clear of Leeds and Burnley who would each have three games left to catch us up, and it would have to be not one but both of them to send us down. 

I think people are underestimating just how big Burnley's defeat was on Saturday because that was arguably their easiest remaining fixture and it wasn't a close or unlucky defeat either. It really punctures their momentum and gave us the opportunity to be as far as 4 points clear of them before they go to Spurs. We've done what's theoretically hard bit in winning at Leicester and you could see by the reactions at full time that it completely changed the complexion of the relegation battle.

Leeds' goal difference is a factor as well. They're effectively on 33.5 points unless Everton or Burnley really get hammered for 6 or 7 in one of the remaining games.

[Danny]

I see Leeds getting 3 points from the remaining games and it's most likely against us imo. Burnley I'm not sure, will be a struggle to get more than 2.

[OrangeKhrush]

46 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Burnley have just had their magical mystery tour ended pretty abruptly and they have Spurs away next where I think they'll lose handily to be honest. They could then go into Villa away and Newcastle at home deflated but 4-6 points is still on the table for them there.

Leeds showed some resolve yesterday after going two behind and losing a man at least. If they can get a point against Chelsea, then perhaps it generates a bit of momentum and then Brighton at home and Brentford away aren't the worst fixtures to finish off. Brighton have hit some form just now though which isn't great timing for Leeds.

Bookies have us out as far as 12/1 to drop now I've seen. I don't feel nearly that confident but we have to go to Watford and fancy our chances of winning. Win that and we go 4 points clear of Leeds and Burnley who would each have three games left to catch us up, and it would have to be not one but both of them to send us down. 

I think people are underestimating just how big Burnley's defeat was on Saturday because that was arguably their easiest remaining fixture and it wasn't a close or unlucky defeat either. It really punctures their momentum and gave us the opportunity to be as far as 4 points clear of them before they go to Spurs. We've done what's theoretically hard bit in winning at Leicester and you could see by the reactions at full time that it completely changed the complexion of the relegation battle.

Leeds' goal difference is a factor as well. They're effectively on 33.5 points unless Everton or Burnley really get hammered for 6 or 7 in one of the remaining games.

Burnley just got smashed at home to Villa,  I think they could get a Royal flush the rest of the season and lose out.  

[Honey Honey]

It's possible that Southampton could be in the mix going into the last game of the season. Unlikely but possible.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

37 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

It's possible that Southampton could be in the mix going into the last game of the season. Unlikely but possible.

Liverpool and Leicester as the final two games. It's possible but would need some unexpected results in fairness, like Burnley beating Spurs.

It'll be fun just to watch and see who wants a lovely Tuesday night down the Cardiff City Stadium. 

[Stan]

That's Southampton staying up then as they're playing us

 

[RandoEFC+]

Southampton perhaps mathematically but you're looking at them not only losing their last two games but Everton bagging 5 points (not improbably) AND Burnley bagging 6 points (unlikely) AND Leeds getting 7 points (highly improbably on its own let alone along with the other two).

I know teams go on runs when they're desperate at the end but Everton have now barely surpassed 1 point per game for the season with Leeds and Burnley not even reaching that bar. Even with the increased do or die stakes, it's fanciful at best to imagine all three of them overtaking Southampton at this stage.

It is probably going to be one of the highest points tallies for 18th place that we've seen though. Leeds currently sat there on 34 points with three games remaining. That's survival 9 times out of 10, usually comfortable as well.

[Chickasaw]

If Spurs beat Arsenal it'll be a bad omen for Burnley because an on form Spurs at home often stick 4 past them. I actually do expect Spurs to win their last three so Burnley MUST pick up points elsewhere.

[Dan+]

7 hours ago, Honey Honey said:

It's possible that Southampton could be in the mix going into the last game of the season. Unlikely but possible.

I'm sure they'll be fine if they need a result on the final day.

[Chickasaw]

6 hours ago, Dan said:

I'm sure they'll be fine if they need a result on the final day.

More likely Saints will be involved in a relegation battle next season along with Brentford.

[RandoEFC+]

There will be a few candidates next season, especially with Fulham and Bournemouth among those coming up. From those in the playoffs, too, Sheffield United look like the strongest side traditionally. None of these are clubs with a particularly high ceiling, it's not like you've got "big clubs" like Villa, Leeds or Newcastle returning to the top flight. Don't think Southampton will end up threatened actually, and Brentford always have a chance of second season syndrome happening to them but actually if I were them, I'd be looking at it as a good opportunity to survive relatively comfortably again and really get established in the top flight.

Let's get this one out of the way first though.

[Dan+]

3 hours ago, Chickasaw said:

More likely Saints will be involved in a relegation battle next season along with Brentford.

I'm thinking they might start to circle the bowl a bit. Hard to know though, their recruitment may pick up a bit under these new owners. They've been gutted a while by their previous.

[Dan+]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

There will be a few candidates next season, especially with Fulham and Bournemouth among those coming up. From those in the playoffs, too, Sheffield United look like the strongest side traditionally. None of these are clubs with a particularly high ceiling, it's not like you've got "big clubs" like Villa, Leeds or Newcastle returning to the top flight. Don't think Southampton will end up threatened actually, and Brentford always have a chance of second season syndrome happening to them but actually if I were them, I'd be looking at it as a good opportunity to survive relatively comfortably again and really get established in the top flight.

Let's get this one out of the way first though.

I've never been more confident of a relegation pre-season than Bournemouth's next year.

[Inverted]

I feel like it's hard to judge Hasenhuttl because his job really seems to be more about developing players than getting results. Their transfer policy seems so restrictive that they seem very happy just to stay up, keep selling a key player every season, and make a few small-scale bets on players from La Liga/Ligue 1/the U23s of a top-6 side. 

Adam Armstrong was their biggest transfer in years and he's not exactly a player you'd bank on to fire you into the upper portions of the table.

[Lucas]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

I've never been more confident of a relegation pre-season than Bournemouth's next year.

Oh I dunno, Norwich were an absolute certainty, especially selling Buendia and not considerably strengthening.

But I agree, cannot see Bournemouth doing a thing. If Parker makes it to May, he'll have done well.

[Dan+]

1 hour ago, Lucas said:

Oh I dunno, Norwich were an absolute certainty, especially selling Buendia and not considerably strengthening.

But I agree, cannot see Bournemouth doing a thing. If Parker makes it to May, he'll have done well.

Norwich actually spent a bit of money this time around although they largely bought garbage like Sargent. I don't know what I'd even do if I was Norwich. It must be so demoralising.

[Chickasaw]

43 minutes ago, Dan said:

Norwich actually spent a bit of money this time around although they largely bought garbage like Sargent. I don't know what I'd even do if I was Norwich. It must be so demoralising.

They've been a yo yo team for quite a while now and I'm thinking that this might be their last foray into the PL for quite a while. Basically every team from 7th or 8th and down could be relegation fodder soon. Wolves are up and down as can West Ham be. Villa, and Southampton never seem to stay long in the top flight. Burnley and Leeds, Brentford and now Everton have had a scare. Newcastle also have a relegation pedigree. If Potter leaves Brighton I'd wager they'd be down again soon after.. Palace are the same as are Watford. Have I missed anyone?

Yes, Leicester, only 8 points clear of the last drop team. Look how they've plunged since winning the PL, another yo yo team.

[Dan+]

6 minutes ago, Chickasaw said:

They've been a yo yo team for quite a while now and I'm thinking that this might be their last foray into the PL for quite a while. Basically every team from 6th or 7th and down could be relegation fodder soon. Wolves are up and down as can West Ham be. Villa, and Southampton never seem to stay long in the top flight. Burnley and Leeds, Brentford and now Everton have had a scare. Newcastle also have a relegation pedigree. If Potter leaves Brighton I'd wager they'd be down again soon after.. Palace are the same as are Watford. Have I missed anyone?

Yes, Leicester, only 8 points clear of the last drop team. Look how they've plunged since winning the PL, another yo yo team.

Leicester aren't a yo-yo team now really. You sound like Rodgers next season will be our 9th year up and it would be deemed a big surprise if we dropped.

Us, Palace and Southampton can't be called yo-yo at this point.