The Relegation Battle 2022

[Lucas]

I know we've had back to back wins but this shows just how quickly the situation can change.

There is nothibg to suggest we are out of it yet. Nothing is cut and dry till these games in hand are dealt with anyway.

All I will say is watching those last minute goals at Goodison and Molineux Thursday and Friday night will have definitely hurt Burnley and Watford.

Considering after Internationals, both of those clubs face the Top two, it provides us a decent chance to turn the screw with Saints at home.

Got to try and grasp these moments early to deliver the psychological hammer blow.

[Coma]

Just got a chance to watch that Wolves-Leeds match. Definitely have the fight to stay up, just need a few more points. Gettinh anything in the upcoming match against Southampton would be fantastic.

[Stan]

Plenty of games in hand for various clubs - Leeds picking up a bit of form and realistically may only need 2-3 more wins to be safe?

I think Newcastle are safe despite today's thrashing, but will pick up enough points. 

Norwich are dead.

I don't hold out much hope for Watford; their defence is shocking and they won't pick up 4/5 wins out of their remaining 8.

Next fixtures for each
Burnley vs Everton
Newcastle vs Wolves
Everton vs Man Utd
Watford vs Leeds
Norwich vs Burnley
 

Massive games for Burnley coming up.

I've not checked all teams' fixtures but Leicester could have a big say in who stays up/goes down - we have to play Everton twice, Norwich at home, Newcastle away and Watford away.

Burnley themselves in control of their own destiny, so to speak. They are due to play Everton, Norwich, Watford and then Newcastle on the final day.

Everton's run-in probably the most difficult - Man Utd, Leicester x2, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea...

[Whiskey]

We're down, and if by some miracle we don't go this year we will go next. The failings at board level since Moshiri took over have been criminal, and will firmly make us the next Portsmouth, Charlton, Blackburn etc. 

With my daughter coming into the world just over a year ago, I've found many weekends (such as today) I've been unable to watch the game as I'm with her at a swimming class, or something along those lines. My mental health if I'm being truly honest has taken a toll on me when it comes to football, I just feel like a massive part of my life is being (and has been) ripped away from me. The more I think about it the most lost I feel, and the more lost I feel the more it seems to affect my wellbeing. In a nutshell, I'll always love Everton but find myself at a crossroads, with the path I take the opposite direction to being the football obsessed, live and die for the game person I was - my weekends going forward will consist of putting my energy into my family, and to be honest the more I think about that idea the better I feel.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Everton's run-in probably the most difficult - Man Utd, Leicester x2, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea...

Liverpool and Arsenal are write offs, probably Leicester away as well. But we are so poor on the road that we have to look at Man Utd and Chelsea at home as games where we can get something. Man Utd are almost as soft-centred as us and Chelsea seem to be all over the shop. I fancy us in those three home games more than I do going to the likes of Burnley and Watford, which is still not very much.

[OrangeKhrush]

I think the bottom three as they are now is how it will be.   Watford and Burnley are teams that get a result then follow it up with a bunch of bad results.  Norwich are as many have said,  toast. 

[Devil-Dick Willie]

Norwich are down, Newcastle are safe imo. Leeds are the team with their life in their own hands the most. Not much between Burnley and Everton IMO but for what it's worth Everton have the pts on the board. 

[Dan+]

Everton aren't down at all. Everton are abject but Burnley get over-estimated. There's too big an assumption in my opinion that they'll drag themselves out of it. They've won three games all season. They're shit.

Think Leeds are going to be fine now. Newcastle & Brentford absolutely no chance. I bet they're both about 20/1 at best to drop.

[Lucas]

It is funny that unless its your team involved, you can never be as relaxed about the situation as others. Still a good two wins for me abd 36pts will be there or therabouts.

Disappointed we couldnt capitalise and beat Saints but Watford away Saturday is a massive step if we can beat them.

Lose that and I will definitely get whiplash looking over my shoulder quick. You just cannot make any firm assumptions whilst so many games in hand need to be completed.

I definitely wouldn't rule out Burnley putting back to back wins v Everton and Norwich this week. Its a huge week for them.

[Coma]

5 minutes ago, Lucas said:

It is funny that unless its your team involved, you can never be as relaxed about the situation as others. Still a good two wins for me abd 36pts will be there or therabouts.

Disappointed we couldnt capitalise and beat Saints but Watford away Saturday is a massive step if we can beat them.

Lose that and I will definitely get whiplash looking over my shoulder quick. You just cannot make any firm assumptions whilst so many games in hand need to be completed.

I definitely wouldn't rule out Burnley putting back to back wins v Everton and Norwich this week. Its a huge week for them.

I was thinking the same thing.  As a Leeds fan it's easy to think that 8 points isn't a big enough gap right now.  But Watford fans must be shitting it when they see they would have to pick up 9 more points than Leeds over the course of 8-10 matches.  Easier for them to focus on Everton.

[Storts+]

It's 3 from 4. And I think Everton will stay up. Current bottom three to go.

[Dr. Gonzo]

If Everton lose to Burnley, I think they’re down

[Danny]

5 hours ago, Lucas said:

It is funny that unless its your team involved, you can never be as relaxed about the situation as others. Still a good two wins for me abd 36pts will be there or therabouts.

Disappointed we couldnt capitalise and beat Saints but Watford away Saturday is a massive step if we can beat them.

Lose that and I will definitely get whiplash looking over my shoulder quick. You just cannot make any firm assumptions whilst so many games in hand need to be completed.

I definitely wouldn't rule out Burnley putting back to back wins v Everton and Norwich this week. Its a huge week for them.

Watford aren't playing that well imo, I watched the Liverpool game and they were decent but nothing stood out. Also they beat Southampton in a pretty fortunate way and if that game is played 99 more times they lose 99 times.

I hope Watford do go down as I'd be interested in Emmanuel Dennis at Brentford.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, Danny said:

Watford aren't playing that well imo, I watched the Liverpool game and they were decent but nothing stood out. Also they beat Southampton in a pretty fortunate way and if that game is played 99 more times they lose 99 times.

I hope Watford do go down as I'd be interested in Emmanuel Dennis at Brentford.

I thought Watford played better than most sides do against us at Anfield, tbh.

They were a million miles away from the side we absolutely dismantled earlier in the season. I think it's hard to judge how much they've really improved from the two matches, as I think if we had a more shit keeper and more shit players... they'd maybe be walking away with a point or 3 from that match... but we don't and it's sort of hard to judge how much they've improved with the gulf of quality between the two sides.

I think it'll be hard for them to stay up, tbh. But they look capable of fighting for their place in the league. It's hard to say because at this stage I think so much of it depends on confidence and momentum. And for what it's worth, Watford don't look short on confidence and they've got plenty of fight left in them.

Which I wouldn't have thought considering their performance earlier this season against us where they looked like they knew they'd be relegated and it was just a matter of letting the season play out.

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, Lucas said:

It is funny that unless its your team involved, you can never be as relaxed about the situation as others. Still a good two wins for me abd 36pts will be there or therabouts.

Disappointed we couldnt capitalise and beat Saints but Watford away Saturday is a massive step if we can beat them.

Lose that and I will definitely get whiplash looking over my shoulder quick. You just cannot make any firm assumptions whilst so many games in hand need to be completed.

I definitely wouldn't rule out Burnley putting back to back wins v Everton and Norwich this week. Its a huge week for them.

It's true. I saw Newcastle fans genuinely worried and I just can't see it. If them or Brentford get relegated from here it'd be one of the worst chokes of all time.

I'm 99% sure on Norwich, about 80% sure on Norwich, probably about 75% sure on Burnley. Don't get me wrong if Burnley beat Everton then I may edge towards it but the more I think about it the more I think Everton will come through.

[LFCMadLad]

19 minutes ago, Dan said:

It's true. I saw Newcastle fans genuinely worried and I just can't see it. If them or Brentford get relegated from here it'd be one of the worst chokes of all time.

I'm 99% sure on Norwich, about 80% sure on Norwich, probably about 75% sure on Burnley. Don't get me wrong if Burnley beat Everton then I may edge towards it but the more I think about it the more I think Everton will come through.

Your opinion on Norwich fluctuates somewhat 

[Dan+]

25 minutes ago, LFCMadLad said:

Your opinion on Norwich fluctuates somewhat 

My bad for saying Burnley, I meant Norwich.

[Lucas]

On 04/04/2022 at 11:35, Lucas said:

It is funny that unless its your team involved, you can never be as relaxed about the situation as others. Still a good two wins for me abd 36pts will be there or therabouts.

Disappointed we couldnt capitalise and beat Saints but Watford away Saturday is a massive step if we can beat them.

Lose that and I will definitely get whiplash looking over my shoulder quick. You just cannot make any firm assumptions whilst so many games in hand need to be completed.

I definitely wouldn't rule out Burnley putting back to back wins v Everton and Norwich this week. Its a huge week for them.

Fucking shut up you wanker.

[Michael]

I hope Everton don't get relegated, but with the form they are in, I suspect that they will go down.

[Dan+]

I really wonder if Watford get out of this. They are granted absolute shit at home but what's done is done, they've got 4 winnable home fixtures and I still don't really trust Burnley.

Everton I think are fucked. The manner of that loss earlier was a disgrace. It's like they find a way to lose no matter what. 

[OrangeKhrush]

Everton may be joining the "to big to go down list"

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Everton may be joining the "to big to go down list"

Newcastle, West Ham, Aston Villa all had a little paddle in the Championship and we're certainly in that category in terms of clubs who should never be slipping that far down.

Some people seem to have this theory though that Everton might actually end up in a better place in 5 years' time or so if we get relegated than if we stay up. I do understand where they're coming from in theory, it sends shockwaves through the club, prompts a big clear out, gives us a chance to rebuild with a young, hungry core and open up spots in the squad that can be filled with better recruits. It makes sense on some level, but not with the leadership we have at the club. We have already hit the reset button many times in the last few years.

The only way I could see us bouncing back up quickly and then carrying that momentum to establish ourselves as a comfortable Premier League club again with less problems than we have now is if relegation prompts a complete regime change at boardroom level. Moshiri has to be gone, Kenwright has to be gone, Denise Barrett-Baxendale and anyone else who has been associated with the senior decision-making at the club for the past 5 years has to be gone. I can't emphasise enough that the situation we find ourselves in isn't a symptom of a handful of unfortunate and costly missteps. The people in charge of this football club have absolutely no idea what they're doing and if they were to stick around for 10-20 more years we'd be more likely to end up in League Two then back even in the mid-table in the Premier League.

[Coma]

38 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Newcastle, West Ham, Aston Villa all had a little paddle in the Championship and we're certainly in that category in terms of clubs who should never be slipping that far down.

Some people seem to have this theory though that Everton might actually end up in a better place in 5 years' time or so if we get relegated than if we stay up. I do understand where they're coming from in theory, it sends shockwaves through the club, prompts a big clear out, gives us a chance to rebuild with a young, hungry core and open up spots in the squad that can be filled with better recruits. It makes sense on some level, but not with the leadership we have at the club. We have already hit the reset button many times in the last few years.

The only way I could see us bouncing back up quickly and then carrying that momentum to establish ourselves as a comfortable Premier League club again with less problems than we have now is if relegation prompts a complete regime change at boardroom level. Moshiri has to be gone, Kenwright has to be gone, Denise Barrett-Baxendale and anyone else who has been associated with the senior decision-making at the club for the past 5 years has to be gone. I can't emphasise enough that the situation we find ourselves in isn't a symptom of a handful of unfortunate and costly missteps. The people in charge of this football club have absolutely no idea what they're doing and if they were to stick around for 10-20 more years we'd be more likely to end up in League Two then back even in the mid-table in the Premier League.

I remember having this same conversation with myself about Leeds in 2004.

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Newcastle, West Ham, Aston Villa all had a little paddle in the Championship and we're certainly in that category in terms of clubs who should never be slipping that far down.

Some people seem to have this theory though that Everton might actually end up in a better place in 5 years' time or so if we get relegated than if we stay up. I do understand where they're coming from in theory, it sends shockwaves through the club, prompts a big clear out, gives us a chance to rebuild with a young, hungry core and open up spots in the squad that can be filled with better recruits. It makes sense on some level, but not with the leadership we have at the club. We have already hit the reset button many times in the last few years.

The only way I could see us bouncing back up quickly and then carrying that momentum to establish ourselves as a comfortable Premier League club again with less problems than we have now is if relegation prompts a complete regime change at boardroom level. Moshiri has to be gone, Kenwright has to be gone, Denise Barrett-Baxendale and anyone else who has been associated with the senior decision-making at the club for the past 5 years has to be gone. I can't emphasise enough that the situation we find ourselves in isn't a symptom of a handful of unfortunate and costly missteps. The people in charge of this football club have absolutely no idea what they're doing and if they were to stick around for 10-20 more years we'd be more likely to end up in League Two then back even in the mid-table in the Premier League.

the experiences are hard to take.  We had that with Mike Ashley.   This team still has the aftermath of Mike Ashley tattoed on it and will likely take a season or two to get moving in the right direction.   Dan Ashworth is only joining in November so we will be doing more shrewd business. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

the experiences are hard to take.  We had that with Mike Ashley.   This team still has the aftermath of Mike Ashley tattoed on it and will likely take a season or two to get moving in the right direction.   Dan Ashworth is only joining in November so we will be doing more shrewd business. 

The thing is while Ashley is a greedy and unambitious dickhead, I'm not so sure he was quite as out of his depth running Newcastle as Moshiri is with Everton.

Whenever Newcastle went down, they quickly came back up because Ashley's greed relied on that PL money. Also when you went down, I'm fairly certain players of yours had relegation clauses so their wages will go down as the revenue goes down from the club getting relegated and not getting the PL TV money - Everton do not have these clauses in their contracts for their players. Wage expenses make up 89% of their total revenue - so financially they're looking at a genuine financial catastrophe if they go down.

Some players, like Pickford and Richarlison, will move on pretty quickly. But other players, like the Delphs & Alli's of the squad, I think are considered too overpaid and underperforming to be counted on to be sold to free up wages and allow for rebuilding.

And I understand that Ashley was rightfully hated because he was unambitious and I think Newcastle fans were right to expect more from their team and to hope that their owners would be able to show forward progress moving towards being a better football club. But he at least had a goal with Newcastle and knew in order to be a greedy parasite to the maximum, he'd have to have Newcastle in the top flight.

He was a bad owner... but I think Moshiri is a bad owner on an entirely different level.

I'm sure Moshiri's a greedy parasite, but I don't know if he's capable of short and long term planning for a football club. He thinks he knows better than the experts in football he's hired to advise him. He hired Marcel Brands.... and there's so many reports of him just ignoring Brands' advice and just going ahead with what he wanted to do. They spent so much money to build a side that is so unbalanced that it's no wonder Everton have struggled under several managers (because let's not forget the last 4 months of Ancelotti's Everton last season were pretty fucking dire).

Moshiri really has not demonstrated much that he can help Everton bounce back from a relegation. If anything it's been a slow and steady rot under his leadership that he's shown he's only really been capable of speeding up to the dismay of the blueshite.

It's hard to say what would happen: but I think they're arguably more likely to be more of a Sunderland post-relegation than a Newcastle.