Harry 1,437 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 It's such a shame that the 75% of people in the centre have to pick between left and right in most elections. The worst elements in both parties polarize the sensible majority away from either side. It crushes any genuine enthusiasm you could have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ 5,358 Posted November 4, 2018 Subscriber Share Posted November 4, 2018 Long read this with a lot of charts so I added them in as a spoiler. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Donald Trump won't be on the ballot when Americans go to the polls on Tuesday, but the elections will shape the rest of his presidency. Voters will be choosing members of Congress - 35 senators and all 435 members of the House of Representatives - as well as 36 state governors and dozens of local legislative officials. The elections matter because both houses of Congress are currently controlled by President Trump's Republican Party. If Democrats take back control of the House or the Senate, they could severely limit what he can do in the final two years of his term. In the House, analysts predict dozens of seats could change hands and the majority of these are currently held by Republicans. Republicans are well positioned in the battle for the Senate though as only nine of their seats are up for election, while Democrats are defending 24 of theirs and two independents who vote with them are also up. It's essentially a referendum on Trump Mid-term elections tend to act as a referendum on the president and that's usually bad news for the party that controls the White House. Of the 21 mid-terms that have been held since 1934, the president's party has only made gains in the House three times and in the Senate five times. The president's approval rating is a good indicator for how his party will do and President Trump's has been low since he entered office - it is currently hovering around 42%. For comparison, President Obama's was at 45% before the 2010 mid-terms in which the Democrats saw some of the biggest electoral losses in US history. Generic ballot polling, which tracks which party voters say they will back, doesn't offer much reassurance to Republicans either. It currently shows the Democrats up by about 8 percentage points. Can we tell now if Democrats will win? A record number of Republicans have retired The average age of Congress is 60, so members retiring shouldn't come as a big surprise. But the number of Republicans who are bowing out rather than contesting the mid-terms has raised eyebrows. More than 30 Republicans have announced their retirement - many more have resigned, a few due to sexual harassment accusations, while some are leaving to pursue other elected offices. Many of those quitting have cited the highly partisan climate and Donald Trump as a reason, with one telling CNN: "I feel all I do is answer questions about Donald Trump rather than health insurance or tax policy." It's good news for Democrats as studies have shown that incumbent candidates are more likely to win an election than their challengers, due in part to greater name recognition and fundraising capability. A record number of women are standing The Democrats have seen a major boost in recruitment thanks to Donald Trump and this year is the first time they've fielded more candidates for the House than Republicans since 2008. About 1,500 people sought to be Democratic nominees for the House - 500 more than in the last mid-terms. Of those that won the party's nomination, a record 198 were women. The big jump in the number of women candidates has led some pundits to predict that 2018 could become another "Year of the Woman" - a reference to the 1992 elections in which the number of women in Congress doubled. As it stands, women make up only 20% of Congress and this under-representation has long been put down to a reluctance by women to run for office. But Hillary Clinton's surprise defeat to Donald Trump, a man who has been accused of sexual harassment and has a long history of making sexist remarks, appears to have been a galvanising moment for American women. The women lining up to topple Trump Democrats need to change the typical turnout Mid-term elections don't have the excitement that a presidential contest brings, meaning turnout is lower. While around 60% of Americans vote for the president, only around 40% take part in the mid-terms. In 2014, it was just 35.9% - the lowest mid-terms turnout since the Second World War, according to the United States Elections Project. Low turnout has tended to favour the Republican Party in previous mid-terms because those that do vote are older and whiter than in presidential elections. Democrats are hopeful Mr Trump's unpopularity with younger, female and minority voters will encourage them to take more notice of mid-terms this time around. In March, 1 million people voted in the Democratic primary in Texas - nearly double the amount that did so four years ago - but that still fell short of the 1.5 million Republicans who voted. While that means Texas might be out of reach for Democrats, similar turnout in other states could turn them blue. Losses will spell trouble for Trump - and impeachment? President Trump's biggest legislative victory so far has been his sweeping overhaul of the US tax system, but he was only able to sign that into law because Republicans have majorities in both houses of Congress. If Democrats win control of one or both of those houses, they'll be able to limit how much President Trump can achieve in the final two years of his term. Democrats could take control of important Congressional committees, which would allow them to launch oversight investigations into several issues, including the president's business dealings and allegations of sexual assault made against him. While calls for Mr Trump's impeachment are likely to get louder if Democrats take control of the House, it could ultimately be fruitless unless Republican senators turn on the president. A two-thirds majority is needed in the Senate to remove him from office. Only two presidents have ever been impeached - Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton - and both were acquitted after a trial in the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned before he could be impeached after the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s. Democrats may have a better chance of removing President Trump by defeating him in the next presidential election in 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44314914 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowabunga 313 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 3 hours ago, CaaC - John said: Long read this with a lot of charts so I added them in as a spoiler. Hide contents A record number of Republicans have retired The average age of Congress is 60, so members retiring shouldn't come as a big surprise. But the number of Republicans who are bowing out rather than contesting the mid-terms has raised eyebrows. 1 60 is the average age for the Congressmen? It looks a bit too much in the gerontocratic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirBalon 2,692 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
God is Haaland 618 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ 5,358 Posted November 6, 2018 Subscriber Share Posted November 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Artful Dodger 1,831 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Not a mauling but control of congress means his more bigoted ideas should be blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry 1,437 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 How fucked up are Senates? That this current republican congress have increased their majority in the senate is an aberration of reality. That Wyoming with its 500k people get (2 off) Senators into congress, the same number of Senators as Californias entire 40 million, giving them close to 80 times less influence per person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ 5,358 Posted November 7, 2018 Subscriber Share Posted November 7, 2018 Posted at 12:15 The president is tweeting again President Trump's first tweet on the morning after the election mentions congratulations from foreign partners of the US. But it is not clear who he is referring to. 12:05 Washington wakes up America's east coast awakes to the reality of a nation split down the middle. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-46104314 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Gonzo 8,184 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 hours ago, Harry said: How fucked up are Senates? That this current republican congress have increased their majority in the senate is an aberration of reality. That Wyoming with its 500k people get (2 off) Senators into congress, the same number of Senators as Californias entire 40 million, giving them close to 80 times less influence per person. The senate is one of the most inherently democratic parts of American democracy. Land is worth more than people apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicero 5,267 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 This mean they will actually put in an effort to investigate Trump? Or were the only Republicans that wanted to do so, are no longer in the house? What does this mean of ICE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kowabunga 313 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 hours ago, Cicero said: This mean they will actually put in an effort to investigate Trump? Or were the only Republicans that wanted to do so, are no longer in the house? What does this mean of ICE? They? Do you mean the House of Representatives? The blue majority at the House can now investigate Trump & Circle with subpoena after subpoena as well as they can start impeachment proceedings if they wanted, although ultimately impeachment wouldn't happen without securing a 2/3 majority in the Senate. That is a very risky move for the democrats, though. They need to carefully plan what they are going to do until the 2020 election (taking consequences into account). The majority at the House may well be a poisoned fruit. A damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of conundrum ultimately playing into the hands of Trump. Regarding the future, it's worth noting voter suppression is going to play a big (bigger!) role in the 2020 election (for example in Georgia and Florida, where the GOP has secured senate seats and governor). In the other hand, the fact that a million and a half fellons/former fellons from Florida now have voting rights may be also a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honey Honey 3,767 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 hours ago, Harry said: How fucked up are Senates? That this current republican congress have increased their majority in the senate is an aberration of reality. That Wyoming with its 500k people get (2 off) Senators into congress, the same number of Senators as Californias entire 40 million, giving them close to 80 times less influence per person. The suggestion in that doesn't sound much like healthy democracy either. Always said the US makes very little sense existing as one country. It isn't economcially, culturally, geographically or enviornmentally homogenous. I think the makeup of the senate is probably in some ways a reflection of that reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Gonzo 8,184 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Trump's asked Sessions to resign, and Sessions resigned. Chances are Lindsay Graham will be the new AG and will sack Mueller. Which is weird because a democratic house can reopen an investigation and place Mueller at the head of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicero 5,267 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said: Trump's asked Sessions to resign, and Sessions resigned. Chances are Lindsay Graham will be the new AG and will sack Mueller. Which is weird because a democratic house can reopen an investigation and place Mueller at the head of it. Maybe that's what he wants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Gonzo 8,184 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Cicero said: Maybe that's what he wants The only benefit to him I can see is there'd be a 2 month delay in the investigation (because Congress is sworn in on January 3rd) and he could possibly destroy evidence/witness tamper without an active investigation going on. But other than that, there's no benefit to him - it allows the investigation to continue but takes the control of the investigation away from the executive branch and gives it to the democrats. I also suspect a lot of investigations other than the Russia investigation will pop up. Emoluments violations have been alleged as soon as he took office with his "blind" trust being run by his family and therefore not blind and fraudulent use of taxpayer money: Pruitt, Zinke, Price, Haley - these are all cabinet members that have serious allegations of using federal funds for excessive personal reasons, are the 2 big ones I can think of other than Russia. This also creates significant gridlock. For Congress to pass anything they'll need the House and Senate to agree in this very partisan environment. This limits his domestic power to federal appointments (which the senate will likely rubber stamp) and executive orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry 1,437 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 39 minutes ago, Cicero said: Maybe that's what he wants It could hurt the dems to look like they are doing what the republicans did to Hillary Clinton when they knew she'd be the front-runner in 2016. But if trump fires mueller they'd be expected to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Tommy 12,612 Posted November 8, 2018 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2018 Holy shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,378 Posted November 8, 2018 Administrator Share Posted November 8, 2018 That shite about Acosta putting his hands on a woman despite it being a bare-faced lie is so indicative of Trump and his administration. The huge irony being that Trump loves to put his hands on a woman ('grab em by the pussy') yet making shit up while a CNN reporter just does his job is their way of going about it, despite clear evidence to the contrary . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ 5,358 Posted November 8, 2018 Subscriber Share Posted November 8, 2018 I wish a HUGE gust of wind would hit his head and blow his bloody wig off, that would make my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairy In Boots 607 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Jim Acosta’d That bitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honey Honey 3,767 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DNA 107 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 21 hours ago, CaaC - John said: I wish a HUGE gust of wind would hit his head and blow his bloody wig off, that would make my day. It's definitely not a wig, a wig would actually look good for starters aha. He's just using a crazy amount of hair spray in what is a really advanced comb over to cover the areas where he's balding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honey Honey 3,767 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 43 minutes ago, DNA said: It's definitely not a wig, a wig would actually look good for starters aha. He's just using a crazy amount of hair spray in what is a really advanced comb over to cover the areas where he's balding. Sounds like you are speaking from experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DNA 107 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Harvsky said: Sounds like you are speaking from experience I worked in a barber shop, part time whilst in uni, we had to wear ridiculous 'peaky blinder' style uniforms too. Seen it all, hair wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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