UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[nudge+]

6 minutes ago, Gunnersauraus said:

Not really. I'm listening to the leading experts and what a majority say. I dont think a majority agree from what I have  read. 

Genuine question - how do you know who the leading experts are and what defines majority for you?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, nudge said:

Genuine question - how do you know who the leading experts are and what defines majority for you?

Well a majority is 51 percent technically. But say 51 percent of scientists thought a scientific theory was correct. I doubt we would know. I imagine it would be hard to find out that accurately what scientists think. But if there is a huge majority we will know. For example around 97% of scientists think man is causing climate change. So that is a huge majority and so even if that figure is slightly out we can be fairly certain a majority of experts think it is true even if the estimates are out a bit. 

I dont know who the leading experts are. But the fact that the WHO recomend lockdowns and most governments are imposing them makes me think it is likely for the best with the knowledge we have. 

You have to think about it from my point of view. Not very educated on science. The world health organisation  recommends lockdowns. Most governments are enforcing lockdown. Its perfectly reasonable for me to think it might be for the best. I'm not saying you should change you mind or people who dont think we should have them are wrong. I'm not debating you. I wouldn't debate you your to clever   I'm just saying this is why I think what I do. Everybody has to form opinions on the information they have . 

[Guest]

Interesting thing I never knew. Britian doesnt include Ireland. Britian is England, scotland wales and a few islands. Ireland is part of the united kingdom and the  British isles. But the british isles includes republic of Ireland. So therefore surely brexit is the wrong term 

[RandoEFC+]

North Shropshire by election is next Thursday, the seat which Owen Paterson 'resigned' from after the scandal over his lobbying.

These were the results last time. The Conservative candidate winning with almost two-thirds of the vote and a margin of almost 23,000 votes.

By-elections are obviously a bit weird, with the scandal surrounding the previous MP and the increased difficulty incumbent governments face in by-elections where they're more likely to face a protest vote, their voters know they'll still be in power if they lose the seat, and those disgruntled with the government are more motivated to go out and put in a protest vote. But with a majority that large, you'd never expect them to lose the seat.

What's also strange is that it's the Liberal Democrats leading the charge here despite Labour being the closest competitor at the last election. I can only speculate as to why that might be. There's definitely something going on in these by-elections though, with Labour and the Lib Dems informally standing down depending on who is the stronger challenger. There's still a Labour candidate standing, but they aren't really trying to win. They did something in Chesham and Amersham earlier this year where the Lib Dems took a seat off the Tories in another by-election. Lib Dems returned the favour in Batley and Spen which Labour held by the skin of their teeth, and the by-election last week, which the Tories held but with a reduced majority. This kind of informal cooperation might be essential in ousting the Tories at the next general election.

Anyway, back to the point. This by-election is on Thursday and the bookies have it now at about 50/50 in light of the recent news. There's a lot of anger at the current government among their voter base. If a majority of 23,000 gets overturned that would be quite the result and it's starting to look very possible.

[nudge+]

2 hours ago, Gunnersauraus said:

Well a majority is 51 percent technically. But say 51 percent of scientists thought a scientific theory was correct. I doubt we would know. I imagine it would be hard to find out that accurately what scientists think. But if there is a huge majority we will know. For example around 97% of scientists think man is causing climate change. So that is a huge majority and so even if that figure is slightly out we can be fairly certain a majority of experts think it is true even if the estimates are out a bit. 

I dont know who the leading experts are. But the fact that the WHO recomend lockdowns and most governments are imposing them makes me think it is likely for the best with the knowledge we have. 

You have to think about it from my point of view. Not very educated on science. The world health organisation  recommends lockdowns. Most governments are enforcing lockdown. Its perfectly reasonable for me to think it might be for the best. I'm not saying you should change you mind or people who dont think we should have them are wrong. I'm not debating you. I wouldn't debate you your to clever   I'm just saying this is why I think what I do. Everybody has to form opinions on the information they have . 

I wasn't debating you either, in fact, I didn't even give my opinion at all it was more of a general point how hard it is to form truly informed opinions when not all information is available at all times, especially when the topic at hand is considerably new and debatable even in the scientific community. 

[Azeem]

Quebec had an independence referendum from Canada in 1990s. The ratio was 50.58% to remain so technically 50.01 is majority.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, nudge said:

I wasn't debating you either, in fact, I didn't even give my opinion at all it was more of a general point how hard it is to form truly informed opinions when not all information is available at all times, especially when the topic at hand is considerably new and debatable even in the scientific community. 

Definitely. Like I said its important to be rational and consistent. Performing mental gymnastics because you dont like something the experts agree on when you have little knowledge as I dont is abit strange. Like I've said that kind of thinking has had some very bad affects on the world. I.E. Climate change denial,  anti vax etc.  There are a lot of people with no knowledge of science who do this. Like you said though it's hard with this situation because even the scientific community arent sure. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Guest

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Khan of TF365 said:

Quebec had an independence referendum from Canada in 1990s. The ratio was 50.58% to remain so technically 50.01 is majority.

Quexit 

[The Artful Dodger]

Cummings has now released a picture of Johnson at a virtual quiz. Whilst pretty tame in comparison to a full blown party it would appear he’s broken the law, and surely, surely will have to go?

Just worried that whoever comes in next will bounce the Tories back up.

[Stan]

It's the repetitive rule-breaking that is angering me.

Fine if he wasn't at the party on 18th Dec. Plenty of others were and that's also angering.

But he's preached in front of the cameras at daily briefings about no indoor gathering and no parties anyway, and there is he doing quizzes.

Nadhim Zahawi is a prick as well sticking up for him defending that 'he worked with those people for months and this was a way of saying thank you'. Fuck off mate. We weren't allowed to see our families and friends and our work teams for months on end and we didn't get a chance to 'party' with them either. Twat.

[6666]

So a new bill has passed that the government can strip people of citizenship without any notice... it was already ridiculous that a government can strip someone of their citizenship but this is an extra level of fucked up. Obvious targeting of people that aren't "British, British". 

[Waylander]

1 hour ago, 6666 said:

So a new bill has passed that the government can strip people of citizenship without any notice... it was already ridiculous that a government can strip someone of their citizenship but this is an extra level of fucked up. Obvious targeting of people that aren't "British, British". 

From Al Jazeera only other link was Guardian

Clause 9 of the Nationality and Borders Bill, proposed in July and updated in November, exempts the government from giving notice of a decision to deprive a person of citizenship if authorities do not have the subject’s contact details or if it is not “reasonably practical” to do so.

Makes you wonder what situations this would cover, I could see it being used with illegal immigration via boats where they suspect it is economic migration rather than escaping persecution yet of course it could be misused or have other motives.

[The Artful Dodger]

The Shamima Begum case was the crucial juncture, I still can't believe that got through.

[RandoEFC+]

4 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Cummings has now released a picture of Johnson at a virtual quiz. Whilst pretty tame in comparison to a full blown party it would appear he’s broken the law, and surely, surely will have to go?

Just worried that whoever comes in next will bounce the Tories back up.

The photo came out with claims that there were 20+ other people in the room but it doesn't prove a mass gathering, only three people sat together. Unless there are other photos.

What I don't understand from the government is why they keep trying to create plausible deniability over whether there were parties or rule breaking. It's very clear that someone, be that Cummings or disgruntled staff in No 10 or someone else, have all of the receipts, and are deliberately leaking this evidence out a little bit at a time to invite Johnson and his people into a trap of denying every detail and then being proved wrong.

[The Artful Dodger]

Probably because, despite his pretentious verbiage, Johnson is not particularly bright.

[RandoEFC+]

On 12/12/2021 at 15:02, RondónEFC said:

The photo came out with claims that there were 20+ other people in the room but it doesn't prove a mass gathering, only three people sat together. Unless there are other photos.

What I don't understand from the government is why they keep trying to create plausible deniability over whether there were parties or rule breaking. It's very clear that someone, be that Cummings or disgruntled staff in No 10 or someone else, have all of the receipts, and are deliberately leaking this evidence out a little bit at a time to invite Johnson and his people into a trap of denying every detail and then being proved wrong.

 

 

Still has a "plenty more where that came from" feel to it. Pippa Crerar hammering the nails in one by one.

It's when not if for Johnson now. 100 Tory rebels on the Covid laws tonight with the new restrictions only passing with Labour's support. Tight by election looming on Thursday.

[The Artful Dodger]

Not a coincidence it’s the black Tory who is the fall guy. Inherently racist party and voters.

[Stan]

 

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

90k HK residents have applied for the new British resettlement visa

[LFCMike]

 

[The Artful Dodger]

Tories lose north Shropshire, a seat they had 23k majority at at the last election and have held for 200 years. Not even close either. Johnson probably done now. 
 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by The Artful Dodger

[RandoEFC+]

On 10/12/2021 at 12:31, RondónEFC said:

North Shropshire by election is next Thursday, the seat which Owen Paterson 'resigned' from after the scandal over his lobbying.

These were the results last time. The Conservative candidate winning with almost two-thirds of the vote and a margin of almost 23,000 votes.

By-elections are obviously a bit weird, with the scandal surrounding the previous MP and the increased difficulty incumbent governments face in by-elections where they're more likely to face a protest vote, their voters know they'll still be in power if they lose the seat, and those disgruntled with the government are more motivated to go out and put in a protest vote. But with a majority that large, you'd never expect them to lose the seat.

What's also strange is that it's the Liberal Democrats leading the charge here despite Labour being the closest competitor at the last election. I can only speculate as to why that might be. There's definitely something going on in these by-elections though, with Labour and the Lib Dems informally standing down depending on who is the stronger challenger. There's still a Labour candidate standing, but they aren't really trying to win. They did something in Chesham and Amersham earlier this year where the Lib Dems took a seat off the Tories in another by-election. Lib Dems returned the favour in Batley and Spen which Labour held by the skin of their teeth, and the by-election last week, which the Tories held but with a reduced majority. This kind of informal cooperation might be essential in ousting the Tories at the next general election.

Anyway, back to the point. This by-election is on Thursday and the bookies have it now at about 50/50 in light of the recent news. There's a lot of anger at the current government among their voter base. If a majority of 23,000 gets overturned that would be quite the result and it's starting to look very possible.

 

[RandoEFC+]

Such a good bit of shithousery here. 

[Stan]

The guy put in charge of investigating the Tory Xmas parties last year, HOSTED A PARTY HIMSELF AS WELL. 

You couldn't make this shit up. 

Well, actually you could. Because an increasing number of Tories are proving to have no moral compass and are corrupt as fuck. 

[The Artful Dodger]

58 minutes ago, Stan said:

The guy put in charge of investigating the Tory Xmas parties last year, HOSTED A PARTY HIMSELF AS WELL. 

You couldn't make this shit up. 

Well, actually you could. Because an increasing number of Tories are proving to have no moral compass and are corrupt as fuck. 

In fairness, this fella is a civil servant so has no political affiliation Did anyone here never break any rules, genuinely? 

The party is an egregious flouting of the rules but it's more the hypocrisy which is the killer, for me anyway.

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by The Artful Dodger