The Relegation Battle 2023

[OrangeKhrush]

Aston Villa timed sacking Gerrard perfectly and to get Emery they won the lottery,  at that stage of the season Everton, West Ham and Leicester could have done the same but opted to stick. 

[Stan]

38 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said:

Yeah this is the first time I think Leicester may be in real trouble. To lose to Palace and Bournemouth in a short time period is quite frankly poor. 

For as poor as I think Brendan Rodgers was this season, he really should have resigned at the end of last season. He knew this squad was at the end of a cycle and suggested an overhaul was necessary in several press conferences. When it became clear the board couldn't fund one he should have walked.

Nevertheless that doesnt excuse that some of these players have underperformed significantly for two seasons now. Kasper Schmeichel covered a lot of cracks last season. Players like Pereira and Vardy look a shell of there former selves whilst Tielemans since not getting a big move has been an absolute disgrace.

It feels like under the current ownership/structure that sides like Leicester, Everton and Crystal Palace are just sleep walking towards relegation. If it doesn't happen this season, it will happen next season or the season after without significant change. 

Pereira gets a bit of leeway because of injury issues. Vardy has dropped off a cliff but age and being played as a lone striker just isn't him. To be honest every single player at the club could be looked at for improvement. I don't think they care as much as the fans do for being at the club. You just don't see the running in them. 

6 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Aston Villa timed sacking Gerrard perfectly and to get Emery they won the lottery,  at that stage of the season Everton, West Ham and Leicester could have done the same but opted to stick. 

Agreed. Looking at how Emery has performed at Villa is incredible. I was naive to think we couldn't get him, but that was partly in relation to how much it would have cost to sack Rodgers and then pay someone like Emery. But it would have been a risk worth taking as its nowhere near as costly as relegation. 

[OrangeKhrush]

2 minutes ago, Stan said:

Pereira gets a bit of leeway because of injury issues. Vardy has dropped off a cliff but age and being played as a lone striker just isn't him. To be honest every single player at the club could be looked at for improvement. I don't think they care as much as the fans do for being at the club. You just don't see the running in them. 

Agreed. Looking at how Emery has performed at Villa is incredible. I was naive to think we couldn't get him, but that was partly in relation to how much it would have cost to sack Rodgers and then pay someone like Emery. But it would have been a risk worth taking as its nowhere near as costly as relegation. 

Emery turned around Luiz, Watkins, Bailly he could probably get a tune out of Tielemans, KDH, Barnes etc.   I genuinely fear for Leicester,  watched the replays and they look to have given up. 

[Dan+]

I hit a point where I wanted Dyche. He isn't pretty but where has this illusion of being pretty gotten us this season? Dyche has some decent fundamental values which we've completely lost. I wouldn't expect him to take us to Europe or whatever, but we were in such terminal decline that I think he'd have stopped the bleeding.

I'm about 90% sure we'd be about 12th/13th already if we'd brought Dyche in when Everton did.

We will pay the ultimate price for our inaction.

[Dan+]

10 hours ago, Devil said:

 

Lads you've got plenty of games left, you've got players capable of so much better.

You just need that spark, one win and you're back in the game. If Leicester go down with the likes of Vardy, Maddison and Barnes in their side I will be amazed. 

We've just been comprehensively beaten by Palace & Bournemouth. If we had put up a decent fight and lost both I think I'd cling onto some hope. But we were extremely lucky to only lose each game by a goal.

Our only hope is a new manager / interim manager really does invigorate the players but I doubt it. I think the majority of them have mentally clocked out of it. There aren't the same consequences for them and the ones who do suffer from this ultimately just let it all happen.

We'll be about 5/6 off it entering May and that'll be that. We're having the phase you're meant to have around February, in April. We're out of it and I think we could finish 20th.

[Dan+]

That lineup yesterday was an absolute joke. I saw it and immediately ploughed money onto a Bournemouth win. Amartey by choice, 'resting' Souttar (for fucking what!!!!!!), Soumare, Ricardo on the wing, Vardy on his own. Just an utter utter mess. Sadler/Stowell shouldn't be having to do this but I'm alarmed that some of our actual coaching staff thought that was genuinely the best lineup to start with yesteday. It was one of those games so horrendously handled I honestly don't think I'd have done a worse job.

Honestly at times it's like we're purposely trying to drop.

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

I hit a point where I wanted Dyche. He isn't pretty but where has this illusion of being pretty gotten us this season? Dyche has some decent fundamental values which we've completely lost. I wouldn't expect him to take us to Europe or whatever, but we were in such terminal decline that I think he'd have stopped the bleeding.

I'm about 90% sure we'd be about 12th/13th already if we'd brought Dyche in when Everton did.

We will pay the ultimate price for our inaction.

Play Iversen earlier in the season as a regular and we're not in the position we're in now.

1 hour ago, Dan said:

That lineup yesterday was an absolute joke. I saw it and immediately ploughed money onto a Bournemouth win. Amartey by choice, 'resting' Souttar (for fucking what!!!!!!), Soumare, Ricardo on the wing, Vardy on his own. Just an utter utter mess. Sadler/Stowell shouldn't be having to do this but I'm alarmed that some of our actual coaching staff thought that was genuinely the best lineup to start with yesteday. It was one of those games so horrendously handled I honestly don't think I'd have done a worse job.

Honestly at times it's like we're purposely trying to drop.

Soumare was 'brought in for energy'. Sadler and Stowell just took the piss  

[Dan+]

6 minutes ago, Stan said:

Play Iversen earlier in the season as a regular and we're not in the position we're in now.

Soumare was 'brought in for energy'. Sadler and Stowell just took the piss  

Iversen the one saving grace yesterday. Worryingly, Soumare was probably one of the better performers which tells you a lot.

[Dan+]

11 hours ago, Stan said:

Pereira gets a bit of leeway because of injury issues. Vardy has dropped off a cliff but age and being played as a lone striker just isn't him. To be honest every single player at the club could be looked at for improvement. I don't think they care as much as the fans do for being at the club. You just don't see the running in them. 

Agreed. Looking at how Emery has performed at Villa is incredible. I was naive to think we couldn't get him, but that was partly in relation to how much it would have cost to sack Rodgers and then pay someone like Emery. But it would have been a risk worth taking as its nowhere near as costly as relegation. 

It's a really tough one with Vardy because he's our best ever player, but he's so done now, he's comforably 3rd best behind Iheanacho / Daka for all those two aren't perfect. It felt like pure sentiment to play him. If you're going to feature him, at absolute least it has to be in a two.

[OrangeKhrush]

it's a sad fall from grace

[RandoEFC+]

It would be a travesty from those who run the club for Leicester to slip so far, so quickly, and to just go down without a fight the first time they've been threatened.

The sacking has been timed dreadfully.

[Lucas]

Way I see the teams fighting at the moment...

Wolves - Goals a massive issue, bit like Everton, so reliant on keeping clean sheets for their wins. Heads always seem to be just above water.

West Ham - Been poor but always look like they got that extra gear in them to skip away from trouble as and when they really need to.

Bournemouth - Unfancied personnel that are showing good fight and relishing the underdog tag. Should probably drop on paper but the ineptitude of others giving them hope.

Leeds - Go from one end of the scale to the other. Masters of their own downfall. Always give the opposition a chance and probably considered a soft touch. Extremely vulnerable.

Everton - The most solid set up of all the teams down there, yet seem to only ever have the one goal in them so pretty reliant on 1-0 for wins. Always a precarious position.

Forest - Totally reliant on Brennan Johnson and home form. Rode their luck at times. Probably deserve to drop if you finish below them.

Leicester - Struggling to create chances. Major confidence issues running through the team. However, everyone expects more from them. Could click in an instant.

Southampton - Lack cutting edge in the final third. Defence looks pourous. Serious Red Flag's all over, looks ominous.

[Dan+]

We're a bit of an unknown quantity now. How will we react. We have somebody in place for a couple of months and I don't think we can look any worse than we had been doing.

Hopefully the fresh voices do the trick. Literally anything has to be better than Rodgers/Sadler.

[Stan]

The thread was updated on Discord at end of March, but there's been a few updates since then in terms of games, position changes and managerial changes...

@The Palace Fan will be glad to know he is likely to be no longer part of this thread following 2 valuable wins over Leicester & Leeds.

Table as it stands

Leicester have plummeted and look in real danger of the drop, along with midlands rivals Forest who have a tough fixture list coming up. Bournemouth & West Ham have picked up form, as have Wolves, so it's likely they only need 2 more wins from their remaining games to be safe.

Remaining fixtures for the above teams:

[Dan+]

Got a feeling we're going right to the wire now. I'm more hopeful under Smith than I would've been Marsch, who I thought basically had it.

[Lucas]

If you put a gun to my head and ask me to call it now, I'd probably say Saints, Forest and then a hopeful but unconvinced stab that it's Bournemouth. Naturally you always feel like your own team will sink but equally you hope for a bit of fight. Still feel/expect there is a late resurgence from Leicester in there.

But I really think we need either 3 wins, or 2 wins and 3 draws to be sure.

38pts I think would keep us safe. Might be dangerous to think that way but to match that tally would mean Saints would need probably 5 wins (Can't see it), Leicester 4 (could be possible with the new manager bounce) and Forest 3 plus a couple draws (just don't see that in them)

If Bournemouth manage 2 wins and one or two draws, they blow this wide open.

I think Everton will achieve 38 ok with 3 wins and 2 draws.

[Devil]

5 hours ago, Stan said:

The thread was updated on Discord at end of March, but there's been a few updates since then in terms of games, position changes and managerial changes...

@The Palace Fan will be glad to know he is likely to be no longer part of this thread following 2 valuable wins over Leicester & Leeds.

Table as it stands

Leicester have plummeted and look in real danger of the drop, along with midlands rivals Forest who have a tough fixture list coming up. Bournemouth & West Ham have picked up form, as have Wolves, so it's likely they only need 2 more wins from their remaining games to be safe.

Remaining fixtures for the above teams:

You look at that next round of fixtures and it doesn't look like anyone is going to gain many points. Round 32,33 and 34 should be really interesting and clear a lot of the battle up.

[The Palace Fan]

I still think the standard 36 points will be enough.

I think Southampton are too far adrift now. It feels like they need to beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest to stand any chance. 

I also think Nottingham Forest are in trouble as they have pretty turgid fixtures other than Southampton at home and then Crystal Palace on the last game of the season. They'll have to get some surprise results to survive.

I think its then between Leicester and Everton who both play each other.

Everton have Fulham and Palace in there next two fixtures which will give us a good indication of where they're at. Really they need four points from those games. After that they have the big game against Leicester City and then what could be two decisive games against Wolves and Bournemouth. 

Leicester City have a slightly more favourable run in of Wolves, Leeds  Everton and Fulham before a final day fixture against West Ham. That compensates for them being two points behind but they'll really be targeting the Everton game as the big six pointer.

As for the others, Bournemouth have a fixture run of West Ham, Southampton and Leeds before concluding the season with games against Crystal Palace and Everton. When you look at there fixtures, that win against Leicester feels like a massive step to them staying up.

Leeds have a fixture run of Fulham, Leicester and Bournemouth at the same time as well as a fixture against West Ham before the season concludes. If they don't get a minimum of seven points in those fixtures I'd be concerned but I think they'll be fine.

 

 

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Devil said:

You look at that next round of fixtures and it doesn't look like anyone is going to gain many points. Round 32,33 and 34 should be really interesting and clear a lot of the battle up.

Agreed. It's brutal this weekend for most of the sides! 

[Devil]

6 minutes ago, Stan said:

Agreed. It's brutal this weekend for most of the sides! 

You'd have to say Forest will be really doing well to come out of the four games with any points at all.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 09/04/2023 at 00:20, The Palace Fan said:

For as poor as I think Brendan Rodgers was this season, he really should have resigned at the end of last season. He knew this squad was at the end of a cycle and suggested an overhaul was necessary in several press conferences. When it became clear the board couldn't fund one he should have walked.

I don't think his ego would ever let him resign.

[Dr. Gonzo]

26 minutes ago, Devil said:

You'd have to say Forest will be really doing well to come out of the four games with any points at all.

I'd be surprised if they don't get at least a point off us tbh

[Dan+]

They aren't getting a thing at Anfield. They're a waste of time away from home.

I think we've got to be looking to beat Liverpool at home. We've given them problems here for a while and they've been really poor away from home this season.

[LFCMike]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'd be surprised if they don't get at least a point off us tbh

They've taken 6 points away from home all season, while Liverpool have been strong at home. I'd be shocked if they got anything at Anfield

[OrangeKhrush]

17 hours ago, The Palace Fan said:

I still think the standard 36 points will be enough.

I think Southampton are too far adrift now. It feels like they need to beat Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest to stand any chance. 

I also think Nottingham Forest are in trouble as they have pretty turgid fixtures other than Southampton at home and then Crystal Palace on the last game of the season. They'll have to get some surprise results to survive.

I think its then between Leicester and Everton who both play each other.

Everton have Fulham and Palace in there next two fixtures which will give us a good indication of where they're at. Really they need four points from those games. After that they have the big game against Leicester City and then what could be two decisive games against Wolves and Bournemouth. 

Leicester City have a slightly more favourable run in of Wolves, Leeds  Everton and Fulham before a final day fixture against West Ham. That compensates for them being two points behind but they'll really be targeting the Everton game as the big six pointer.

As for the others, Bournemouth have a fixture run of West Ham, Southampton and Leeds before concluding the season with games against Crystal Palace and Everton. When you look at there fixtures, that win against Leicester feels like a massive step to them staying up.

Leeds have a fixture run of Fulham, Leicester and Bournemouth at the same time as well as a fixture against West Ham before the season concludes. If they don't get a minimum of seven points in those fixtures I'd be concerned but I think they'll be fine.

 

 

so Chelsea are safe?