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Relegation Battle


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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564

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The 40-point mark - the magic number that is supposedly needed to guarantee Premier League survival. But with such a compelling relegation scrap this year, we have to ask, is it still true?

After joining the club in December, West Brom manager Alan Pardew said he would treat himself to a glass of wine when the Baggies reached the 40-point mark, although he added that safety "may be a lot less this year - 35 or 36 points". (They're currently bottom on 20 points, by the way).

BBC Sport and data analysts Gracenote Sports have examined the history of the relegation fight to find out who you can expect to be in the bottom three come the end of the season.

Looking at stats since the Premier League turned into a 20-team league in 1995-96, on only four occasions has a team needed 40 points or more to stay up.

The most recent example was in 2011, when 18th placed Birmingham City went down with 39 points and Midlands rivals Wolves stayed up with 40.

Here's what else we found:

The lowest number of points to guarantee survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th placed Burnley went down with 30 points.

The highest points total to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th placed West Ham relegated with 42 points.

On average the number of points to guarantee survival in the last 22 seasons has been 36.6 points.

Fact: 40 points as a general rule is a myth. But stay with us, as there's predictions to come.

So where did this myth come from?

Probably from a different Premier League era, two decades ago.

Coventry stayed up in 17th with 41 points, relegating Sunderland in 18th with 40, in 1996-97. The next season, 1997-98, Bolton went down on goal difference in 18th, while Everton stayed up in 17th - both finishing with 40 points.

Gracenote says that taking averages over five-year periods, the points needed for Premier League survival has dropped from 37 in 1996-2000, to 35 points now.

With 11 games to go, Gracenote has 11 teams in the relegation battle and has calculated the chance of each team being relegated.

That's from Bournemouth in 10th, down to bottom side West Brom, while the rest of the Premier League's top nine sides all have a less than 1% chance of going down.

Already this season, eight Premier League teams have changed manager - Watford, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Stoke, Swansea, West Brom and West Ham.

Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to estimate the chance of each team being relegated.

Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.

"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports.

 

 

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Two 6 pointers this weekend:

Brighton v Swansea

WBA v Huddersfield

Both seen as "must win" home games.

Over the years the stats are about 50% home win, 30% draw, 20% away win,

The majority of fans think 38 pts is the target for safety.

I did the prediction putting in a few unlikely results and it appears to me that the most inconceivable result would be 42 pts for safety. it is stretching my imagination too much that a team could go down on 43.

 

 

 

 

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Relegation Battle - Remaining Fixtures for all 10 teams 12:19 - Feb 13 with 260 views BarryTownSwam

BRIGHTON 

HOME 
Swans 
Arsenal 
Leicester 
Huddersfield 
Spurs 
Man Utd 

AWAY 
Everton 
Man C 
Palace 
Burnley 
Liverpool 

————————————————————— 

CRYSTAL PALACE 

HOME 
Spurs 
Man U 
Liverpool 
Brighton 
Leicester 
West Brom 

AWAY 
Chelsea 
Huddersfield 
Bournemouth 
Watford 
Stoke 

——————————————————————- 

HUDDERSFIELD 

HOME 

Swans 
Watford 
Palace 
Everton 
Man C 

AWAY 
West Brom 
Spurs 
Chelsea 
Newcastle 
Brighton 
Arsenal 

————————————————————————— —— 

NEWCASTLE 

HOME 

Southampton 
Huddersfield 

Arsenal 
West Brom 
Chelsea 

AWAY 
Bournemouth 
Liverpool 
Spurs 
Leicester 
Everton 
Watford 

————————————————————————- 

SOUTHAMPTON 

HOME 
Stoke 
Chelsea 
Bournemouth 
Man C 

AWAY 
Burnley 
Newcastle 
Swans 
West Ham 
Arsenal 
Leicester 
Everton 

————————————————————————— — 

STOKE 

HOME 
Man C 
Everton 
Spurs 
Burnley 
Palace 

AWAY 
Leicester 
Southampton 
Arsenal 
West Ham 
Liverpool 
Swans 

—————————————————————————- 

SWANS 

HOME 
West Ham 
Southampton 

Everton 
Chelsea 
Stoke 

AWAY 
Brighton 
Huddersfield 
Man U 
West Brom 
Man C 
Bournemouth 

————————————————————————— — 

WATFORD 

HOME 
Everton 
West Brom 
Bournemouth 
Burnley 
Palace 
Newcastle 

AWAY 
Arsenal 
Liverpool 
Huddersfield 
Spurs 
Man Utd 

———————————————————————— 

WEST BROM 

HOME 
Huddersfield 
Leicester 
Burnley 
Swans 
Liverpool 
Spurs 

AWAY 
Watford 
Bournemouth 
Man Utd 
Newcastle 
Palace 

———————————————————————— 

WEST HAM 

HOME 
Burnley 
Man Utd 
Stoke 
Man C 
Everton 

AWAY 
Liverpool 
Swans 
Southampton 
Chelsea 
Arsenal 
Leicester 

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15 points against those teams - which is what we did in the first half of the season - would be enough. 

Easier said than done with ten injuries against United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs. Then playing the others when they're sprinting for points in the final third. 

I think we may do enough this season, but Roy and Wilf leave next season will be very bleak.

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On 2/8/2018 at 10:58, Stan said:

ridiculously tight relegation battle as expected.

relegation.PNG

Somehow have Everton finishing that high xD 

 

If Brighton get less than 36 pts they do not deserve to stay up. This would be two home "must wins" against Swansea and Huddersfield and two draws. I think 38+ will be needed though. 

Swansea and Stoke play on the last weekend so this could be 37 pts for one of them on your forecast.

Newcastle have two must wins against WBA & Huddersfield and should pick up two draws giving them 36 as well. 

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If West Brom don't win this weekend, I think they will go down.

I think Brighton will be OK but it's worth pointing out that they have a pretty bad run in.

Stoke look in serious bother to me. If I had to say three now, I'd go for Stoke, West Brom and Huddersfield.

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West Brom are surely finished. Not a stand out player there that I think can make enough of a difference.

After Stokes draw earlier there's currently just 2 points between 13th and 19th. This battle nailed on to go to the last day.

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18 hours ago, Dan said:

If West Brom don't win this weekend, I think they will go down.

I think Brighton will be OK but it's worth pointing out that they have a pretty bad run in.

Stoke look in serious bother to me. If I had to say three now, I'd go for Stoke, West Brom and Huddersfield.

Think Brighton will still go. Their run in isn't pretty bad, it's horrendous! 8 of their last 10 against sides in the top 10 and they've not won against anyone in the top 10

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18 hours ago, LFCMike said:

Think Brighton will still go. Their run in isn't pretty bad, it's horrendous! 8 of their last 10 against sides in the top 10 and they've not won against anyone in the top 10

Brighton win 4-1 v Swansea (fair reflection of play) and our battle becomes more difficult because of WBA losing to Huddersfield upping the target total to 39+ pts.  Other results were not good but predictable.

This based on the fixtures to play rather than the merits of each side, which are different with different weaknesses strengths, which is hard to judge.  When playing the top 6 this might not even be important as parking the bus make work better.

Dunk's own goals up to four now, but it has only cost two points. Only the top 6 clubs count (not the top 10) but Brighton play 5 out of 10. Safe clubs are only a tough proposition away and this adds two more on. Fellow relegation candidates away are tough and this adds on Palace, but this is also an opportunity to take points off rivals. The other two are "must win" games against Huddersfield and Leicester at home.  (Watford are 10th and Brighton won 1-0 at home.)

I  don't think WBA will be able to bridge the gap. Their only saving grace was their ability to get draws and with the dismissal of Pulis even this seems to have disappeared and set piece goals is not enough. 

Brighton's best bet is to get 6 points (4 pts maybe more likely?) from their winnable home games Huddersfield and Leicester 31+6 =37 and two points (minimum) from Arsenal, Man U (H), Burnley, Palace, Everton (A).  Less than 36pts and we do not deserve to stay up, but I don't think that will be enough. 

I'll go for WBA, plus Swansea or Stoke (or both) plus one other which could be one of quite a lot of clubs.

If Swansea or WBA go down, I don't think they will go back straight up again.

 

 

 

 

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After watching Arsenal this afternoon I don't see them as unbeatable any more. Not strong enough to play three at the back away from home? 

Only have to visit Newcastle and Brighton (next) though. Almost have to add another point on for these two. Safety points total escalating to 39. 

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West Brom aren't finished. They'll lose at Watford, sack Pardew and then, of course, play us, and beat us in a textbook new manager bounce.

They aren't far enough behind to be written off although I'll be surprised if they turn this around.

I'll change my three down to West Brom, Stoke and Crystal Palace now. Stoke were still absolutely shit and I saw nothing to suggest they will survive, a terrible result by us and even worse that we've drawn twice to them. Crystal Palace are back in bad form and are missing loads of players.

Brighton I think will be fine. They've looked excellent lately and although their run in is awful, I think they'll beat a couple of the top sides. I think they'll beat Arsenal as well.

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On 2/25/2018 at 00:53, Perseus said:

Brighton win 4-1 v Swansea (fair reflection of play) and our battle becomes more difficult because of WBA losing to Huddersfield upping the target total to 39+ pts.  Other results were not good but predictable.

This based on the fixtures to play rather than the merits of each side, which are different with different weaknesses strengths, which is hard to judge.  When playing the top 6 this might not even be important as parking the bus make work better.

Dunk's own goals up to four now, but it has only cost two points. Only the top 6 clubs count (not the top 10) but Brighton play 5 out of 10. Safe clubs are only a tough proposition away and this adds two more on. Fellow relegation candidates away are tough and this adds on Palace, but this is also an opportunity to take points off rivals. The other two are "must win" games against Huddersfield and Leicester at home.  (Watford are 10th and Brighton won 1-0 at home.)

I  don't think WBA will be able to bridge the gap. Their only saving grace was their ability to get draws and with the dismissal of Pulis even this seems to have disappeared and set piece goals is not enough. 

Brighton's best bet is to get 6 points (4 pts maybe more likely?) from their winnable home games Huddersfield and Leicester 31+6 =37 and two points (minimum) from Arsenal, Man U (H), Burnley, Palace, Everton (A).  Less than 36pts and we do not deserve to stay up, but I don't think that will be enough. 

I'll go for WBA, plus Swansea or Stoke (or both) plus one other which could be one of quite a lot of clubs.

If Swansea or WBA go down, I don't think they will go back straight up again.

 

 

 

 

For what it's worth I think Brighton will beat us. That's another place we traditionally struggle at.

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11 hours ago, Dan said:

West Brom aren't finished. They'll lose at Watford, sack Pardew and then, of course, play us, and beat us in a textbook new manager bounce.

They aren't far enough behind to be written off although I'll be surprised if they turn this around.

I'll change my three down to West Brom, Stoke and Crystal Palace now. Stoke were still absolutely shit and I saw nothing to suggest they will survive, a terrible result by us and even worse that we've drawn twice to them. Crystal Palace are back in bad form and are missing loads of players.

Brighton I think will be fine. They've looked excellent lately and although their run in is awful, I think they'll beat a couple of the top sides. I think they'll beat Arsenal as well.

Im not bothered either way if we drop to be honest. It's got to a stage now where we're seeing us signing backup players from overseas instead of giving academy players an opportunity. Seeing how cringeworthy our PR has been because Bissaka played the other day because he's the first academy prospect to be given a chance in years really sums up the situation. How can Nya Kirby be one of England's best players at under 19 and not be anywhere near our first team? Get rid of six figure a week mercenaries like Benteke and going back to giving more local lads who could be good enough an opportunity and it may rekindle my love for the club again.

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On 2/25/2018 at 22:38, Perseus said:

After watching Arsenal this afternoon I don't see them as unbeatable any more. Not strong enough to play three at the back away from home? 

Only have to visit Newcastle and Brighton (next) though. Almost have to add another point on for these two. Safety points total escalating to 39. 

I think Brighton will beat Arsenal. Helps that Arsenal play on the Thursday too but Brighton are looking dangerous and Arsenal's away form is pathetic. They've picked up fewer away points than us and Bournemouth.

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One of the reasons why my lot are at present in 2nd position in the league is that a PL outfit did us a great favour by bidding for and taking our worst mercenary last season.  He is now leading them into the Championship.  Great decision by Stoke to take Choupo-Rubbish from us - another great game yesterday from him ( not sure where he was most of the time) but you can be certain he will be at the front of the wages queue this week again!

Thanks guys and sorry for your present position!  Still time to ditch him and get out of trouble!

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We are at home to Southampton and Huddersfield next.

6 points and I think we will stay up.

4 points and it will go to the wire.

3 points and we are going to need to pull big wins out of the bag.

0 or 1 point and we are goners with our fixtures.

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2 minutes ago, Kitchen Sales said:

We are at home to Southampton and Huddersfield next.

6 points and I think we will stay up.

4 points and it will go to the wire.

3 points and we are going to need to pull big wins out of the bag.

0 or 1 point and we are goners with our fixtures.

We've got United and Chelsea with 12 injuries. Fml. Then Huddersfield and Liverpool. We could be well off the pace. 

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2 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said:

We've got United and Chelsea with 12 injuries. Fml. Then Huddersfield and Liverpool. We could be well off the pace. 

Assuming you lose the expected ones I reckon you will still only be 3 points off safety going into the Huddersfield game. 

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1 hour ago, Kitchen Sales said:

We are at home to Southampton and Huddersfield next.

6 points and I think we will stay up.

4 points and it will go to the wire.

3 points and we are going to need to pull big wins out of the bag.

0 or 1 point and we are goners with our fixtures.

who you got in your run-in?

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7 minutes ago, Stan said:

who you got in your run-in?

After those two games there would be 7 games left which include Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham, plus away to Leicester, Everton and Watford. Only West Brom left of bottom half teams.

A lot of those teams have nothing to play for, but when it is away from home it isn't easy.

We need 11 more points to get to 40. If we only got 0-1 in the next 2 games we wouldn't get 10-11 points from those fixtures.

 

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1 hour ago, Lucas said:

Amazing really how a couple months ago you couldn't see anything but Swansea relegated, and now there's just no way you can see them dropping.

called it too. They actually are used to playing a good brand of football and now they are showing that with some proper management they can stay up. 

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