Other News & General Chat

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 minutes ago, Gunnersauraus said:

@Dr. Gonzo what are Azerbaijan and Armenia fighting over? 

Last year, historical Armenian land that has been occupied by mostly Armenians since… forever pretty much… but was within the borders of the Republic of Azerbaijan after the USSR fell.

It was the second full blown conflict over that contested territory - the first war happened right after the Soviet Union fell and both countries gained independence. It ended with an Azerbaijan victory (basically) and a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia.

This year the conflict is a bit different - but related, Azerbaijan wanted Armenia to build a road connecting Turkey and Azerbaijan. That hasn’t happened yet, so Azerbaijan decided to take the land itself and build the road (and probably keep the land itself).

The tensions between Armenia & Azerbaijan are rooted in ethnic divisions, but honestly it’s very strange because culturally they are so very similar.

17 minutes ago, nudge said:

Caucasus is a huge mess, in general. Georgia and Abhkazia, Georgia and Ossetia, Ossetia and Ingushetia, Russia and Chechnya, Russia and Dagestan; those are from the top of the head I'm sure there are more. And yes, Soviet occupation definitely had a lot to do with fueling those tensions, which then turned into territorial disputes and fully blown ethnic conflicts after Soviet Union collapsed.

Ossetia’s a bit like Artsakh isn’t it? In that they claim to be an independent state within Georgia’s borders… but it’s not really internationally recognised.

I dunno anything about them other than that 

[nudge+]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Ossetia’s a bit like Artsakh isn’t it? In that they claim to be an independent state within Georgia’s borders… but it’s not really internationally recognised.

I dunno anything about them other than that 

I guess so, although Ossetians are a distinct ethnic group with their own language, culture and traditions, so while they are not internationally recognised by many countries, I do think they have a legitimate claim to their own land and country. But I'm probably biased; I always sympathise with ethnic groups and their plight for self determination due to my own origin and experiences.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, nudge said:

I guess so, although Ossetians are a distinct ethnic group with their own language, culture and traditions, so while they are not internationally recognised by many countries, I do think they have a legitimate claim to their own land and country. But I'm probably biased; I always sympathise with ethnic groups and their plight for self determination due to my own origin and experiences.

I wikipedia'd them and learned they're considered an "Iranian ethnicity" - I had no idea, and tbh I'm not really sure what that means ... but that's cool! I listened to a bit of their language on YouTube too and... well, it's not like Dari where I can understand 98% of what's been said. Had no clue what the fella was saying!

And I agree with you, I sympathise with ethnic groups that lack self determination... although I've got my own concerns about ethno-states with extreme ethno-nationalism (tbh, I dunno if Ossetians have extreme ethno-nationalism due to me knowing almost next to nothing about them - but I imagine the struggle for self-determination can lead to ethno-nationalism), especially in regions like the Caucuses which historically are home to LOTS of ethnicities.

Because ethno-nationalism usually leads to the demonisation and dehumanisation of people from other ethnicities. And while all of these ethnicities have their own culture, history, languages, and traditions that make them unique... imo, there's a remarkable amount of cultural similarities between many of the different ethnicities that are closely geographically located. They're different enough that they can/should have pride in who they are as people and the history of their people - but they're similar enough to where shit like pogroms and ethnic cleansing shouldn't fucking happen.

Going back to Armenia and Azerbaijan - I think both of those countries lands are also historically tied to Tat/Talysh people, who are an extremely small minority in pretty much every country where you can find them. And both countries don't have great records with their treatment of these people as well. So really Armenians and Azeris aren't the only victims of Armenian/Azeri ethno-nationalism.

But uniting people around "the fear of the other" is sadly very effective and history has shown that leaders can utilise this to get people to participate in some horrific atrocities... pretty much all around the world.

Are you Samogitian? I know fuck all about Lithuania, teach me!

[nudge+]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I wikipedia'd them and learned they're considered an "Iranian ethnicity" - I had no idea, and tbh I'm not really sure what that means ... but that's cool! I listened to a bit of their language on YouTube too and... well, it's not like Dari where I can understand 98% of what's been said. Had no clue what the fella was saying!

And I agree with you, I sympathise with ethnic groups that lack self determination... although I've got my own concerns about ethno-states with extreme ethno-nationalism (tbh, I dunno if Ossetians have extreme ethno-nationalism due to me knowing almost next to nothing about them - but I imagine the struggle for self-determination can lead to ethno-nationalism), especially in regions like the Caucuses which historically are home to LOTS of ethnicities.

Because ethno-nationalism usually leads to the demonisation and dehumanisation of people from other ethnicities. And while all of these ethnicities have their own culture, history, languages, and traditions that make them unique... imo, there's a remarkable amount of cultural similarities between many of the different ethnicities that are closely geographically located. They're different enough that they can/should have pride in who they are as people and the history of their people - but they're similar enough to where shit like pogroms and ethnic cleansing shouldn't fucking happen.

Going back to Armenia and Azerbaijan - I think both of those countries lands are also historically tied to Tat/Talysh people, who are an extremely small minority in pretty much every country where you can find them. And both countries don't have great records with their treatment of these people as well. So really Armenians and Azeris aren't the only victims of Armenian/Azeri ethno-nationalism.

But uniting people around "the fear of the other" is sadly very effective and history has shown that leaders can utilise this to get people to participate in some horrific atrocities... pretty much all around the world.

Are you Samogitian? I know fuck all about Lithuania, teach me!

They are descendants of a nomadic Sarmatian tribe, hence the "Iranian ethnicity", I believe.

And yes, I definitely agree with you re: ethno-nationalism and the potential issues associated with it, but on the other hand, it often is the only option of survival in terms of resisting assimilation and keeping the national/ethnic identity alive. 

Haha, I'm actually half Samogitian, but it's not what I meant. There are no ethnic tensions between Samogitians and Lithuanians. I was talking about the nation barely surviving over 100 years of attempted assimilation by the Russian Empire, where Lithuanian schools and universities were closed, while the language, press, traditions, religious practices and culture were forcefully banned (google "book smugglers Lithuania" for more info about resisting it), then getting occupied by the Nazis and then being given to Soviets after just 20 years of regained independence, with the Soviets then implementing brutal "sovietization" policies, including mass deportations and whatnot. Together with other two Baltic nations, Lithuania continued the non-violent resistance throughout the whole 50 years of occupation. When we became the first nation to break away and announce independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, which included unarmed civilians standing up (and dying) against Soviet military force, most of European countries as well as the US were reluctant to recognise our sovereignty for fear of reaction from Moscow, as we were too small and too irrelevant for the big powers to care about. So what I'm saying is that I can relate to and sympathise with every peoples' struggle for self-determination, as I and at least three generations of my ancestors experienced the same plight while the rest of the world watched and didn't give a fuck.

[Dr. Gonzo]

30 minutes ago, nudge said:

They are descendants of a nomadic Sarmatian tribe, hence the "Iranian ethnicity", I believe.

And yes, I definitely agree with you re: ethno-nationalism and the potential issues associated with it, but on the other hand, it often is the only option of survival in terms of resisting assimilation and keeping the national/ethnic identity alive. 

Haha, I'm actually half Samogitian, but it's not what I meant. There are no ethnic tensions between Samogitians and Lithuanians. I was talking about the nation barely surviving over 100 years of attempted assimilation by the Russian Empire, where Lithuanian schools and universities were closed, while the language, press, traditions, religious practices and culture were forcefully banned (google "book smugglers Lithuania" for more info about resisting it), then getting occupied by the Nazis and then being given to Soviets after just 20 years of regained independence, with the Soviets then implementing brutal "sovietization" policies, including mass deportations and whatnot. Together with other two Baltic nations, Lithuania continued the non-violent resistance throughout the whole 50 years of occupation. When we became the first nation to break away and announce independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, which included unarmed civilians standing up (and dying) against Soviet military force, most of European countries as well as the US were reluctant to recognise our sovereignty for fear of reaction from Moscow, as we were too small and too irrelevant for the big powers to care about. So what I'm saying is that I can relate to and sympathise with every peoples' struggle for self-determination, as I and at least three generations of my ancestors experienced the same plight while the rest of the world watched and didn't give a fuck.

I agree with you that keeping national/ethnic identity alive is important and often times ethno-nationalism seems like the only option. I suppose it's a bit different in places like Armenia/Azerbaijan because they were once areas that were not so ethnically homogenous & are now... very ethnically homogenous.

I think there's a thin little tightrope people/countries have to walk on with ethnic/nationalistic/both of those things mixed. Preservation of cultural identity is definitely something I think is important and it's something people and countries should value. But I do think it's very easy to push ethno-nationalistic views into some really evil things, not just things like ethnic cleansing either - in the Middle East and Caucasus there's now widespread misinformation campaigns and attempts to re-write history and erase some groups culture. And in some of those cases... I think it's just to create the pretext for land grabs and ethnic cleansing in the future.

But I see what you mean regarding Lithuanian resistance to the Russian empire, Nazis & Soviets and feeling the importance of the Lithuanian ethnic and national identity and relating to people like the Ossetians. I'm also glad to hear there's no ethnic tensions between Samogitians & Lithuanians - and that's the way it should be for countries that have different ethnic groups that call the land home. Usually when you see a national identity isn't fractured along ethnic lines... I feel that those people who are nationalistic are a lot less hateful and negative (I dunno if that's the best word) with their nationalism. Whereas I feel many places that push ethnonationalism push their nationalism in a way that's divisive and hateful.

[Beelzebub]

There will be another burst of new countries emerging on world map in 21st century like it did after WW2 in the previous.

[Panflute]

15 hours ago, Gunnersauraus said:

Somebody was telling me about this so called documentary called hunting hitler today. It investigates this theory that hitler wasn't found dead and he actually escaped to south america. It seemed plausible at the time but apparently experts have said its nonsense and a fringe theory. Shows how easily people expect conspiracies at times. The same guy also though russians were fighting aliens in Antarctica 

The power of such documentaries and even Youtube videos is that they allow for people to present a case without being checked along the way by people with knowledge on the subject. They're free to cherry-pick information, omit inconvenient details, twist truths and even outright lie, and you wouldn't know about it unless you researched the topic yourself. With such documentaries it's often fun to completely buy into the idea as you are watching them and then dismissing it all once the credits roll.

I don't think the 'Hitler to South America' story is completely implausible (just highly unlikely), but even with bonkers shit like Flat Earth, the people who push that idea will typically present their ideas with such confidence and inject it with pseudo-scientific 'facts' that they seem coherent at surface level. It's only when you more closely inspect some of the claims they make (I heard one of them say that moonlight makes things colder) that you realize how full of shit they are.

[Waylander]

15 hours ago, Gunnersauraus said:

@Dr. Gonzo what are Azerbaijan and Armenia fighting over? 

After WW1 the Turks attacked the Armenians who moved away to the East in modern day Armenia.

Because of earlier times Turkey had influence further afield in places like Azerbaijan and across the Caspian sea you have Turkmenestan. 

Azerbaijan is still close to Turkey yet is separated by Armenia and has an enclave where Armenia bisects Azerbaijani territory.

It would appear Azerbaijan wants to redraw the map and Turkey approves though Russia is more friendly to Armenia or at least does not want a strong Turkish presence in that area. Traditionally Turkey and Russia have different interests like in the Balkans for example.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 18/11/2021 at 04:25, Waylander said:

After WW1 the Turks attacked the Armenians who moved away to the East in modern day Armenia.

Because of earlier times Turkey had influence further afield in places like Azerbaijan and across the Caspian sea you have Turkmenestan. 

Azerbaijan is still close to Turkey yet is separated by Armenia and has an enclave where Armenia bisects Azerbaijani territory.

It would appear Azerbaijan wants to redraw the map and Turkey approves though Russia is more friendly to Armenia or at least does not want a strong Turkish presence in that area. Traditionally Turkey and Russia have different interests like in the Balkans for example.

 

The history is a bit complicated. At the heart of it is the ethnic tensions between Armenians and Azeris - but there's also some external political pressure from Turkey and Russia as you mention.

I think the Armenian genocide started during WW1 - modern day Turkey and some of modern day Armenia were both part of the Ottoman empire I believe. It's why eastern Turkey, which used to be full of Armenians doesn't really have very many living there anymore - and during the genocide Armenians didn't just go to modern day Armenia... they went literally all over the world. It's why cities like Marseilles and Los Angeles have such massive Armenian populations.

Azerbaijan and the rest of modern day Armenia were part of Qajar Iran, in a territory that used to be called Shirvan, but after the Russia-Persian wars & the Treaties of Gulistan & Turkmenchay... that territory became part of the Imperial Russia. And when Imperial Russia fell, it became part of the USSR. I don't actually know how Russia ended up with the rest of Armenia, though. And I wouldn't say Azeris are Turks (because... they're Azeris ) - but they're definitely a Turkic people. The Russians renamed Shirvan Azerbaijan (which I've always thought was weird, because it's also a province in Iran... that borders Azerbaijan) - perhaps it was to reflect that the territory was predominantly Azeri?

I also don't really know all the details on how Russia promoted ethnic divisions - but that's something that definitely happened. And that's how descendants of people who lived amongst each other started hating each other and we see the beginning of pogroms and instances of ethnic cleansing as the Soviet Union started to crumble and eventually fell. Those Pogroms are how the chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov, an Armenian born in Baku, ended up in Moscow. If you look at the demographics of these countries over time, you see that largely these areas were historically full of both Armenians and Azeris for... well, centuries - but since 1989... you actually see the statistics as these place become more and more ethnically homogenous.

These ethnic tensions are the crux of the conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Then we also have to consider the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabagh/the Republic of Artsakh and the two wars fought over that. The contested territory was largely populated by Armenians historically (the area's also known as the Armenian Highlands) - they declared independence when the Soviet Union fell, same as Armenia and Azerbaijan... I don't know why basically nobody recognised their independence though. The unrecognised state ended up on the lands of Azerbaijan's sovereign territory - but operated as it's own state.

In the 90s, a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was fought over the contested territory with Armenia winning. In the decades to come, Azerbaijan would use the wealth it acquired from selling its natural resources to really build up and modernise it's military with the goal of taking the land back. Armenia, for whatever reason, despite spending a significant portion of its GDP on it's military... simply does not have a military that can compete with Azerbaijan's in modern warfare. And that's why in last year's war, Armenia suffered a pretty decisive defeat despite having the better strategic position to defend Azerbaijan's attacks.

I am not so sure that Turkey's influence over Azerbaijan and places like Turkmenistan are due to a historical influence the Ottoman empire had over those places (because I'm not sure how much influence the Ottomans had over Shirvan or modern day Turkmenistan tbh) - I think it has to do more with the ethnonationalism and specifically the Pan-Turk ideology. The more extremists of this ideology want to see the Turkic world fully united and flying under one flag. Less extreme views just want Turkic people and nations all working together for the benefit of their ethnicity. And there's a few viewpoints that fit somewhere between both of those.

And for what it's worth, I think Turkey and Azerbaijan - who are both nations pushing ethnonationalism and Pan-Turk stuff - don't want to be united as one country (afterall, the Aliyev family loves to say: "one nation, two states") but they generally have the same foreign policy goals.

But in any case, like you said - Azerbaijan and Turkey want the road connecting both Turkic nations running through Armenia. It was actually part of the terms of Armenia's surrender after their last war - but progress on the road's construction has stalled significantly due to political turbulence in Armenia following the breakout of the war and Armenia's military failures.

Russia's interest is purely geo-political - Turkey is important to NATO because of it's location. Russia has a military base in Armenia as a counterweight to Turkey and NATO. Russia also has an interest in Azerbaijan & Turkey as a means of using their pipelines to get natural gas into Europe through Italy in a way that circumvents the gas passing through Ukraine. I suspect that's why Armenia's found Russia to sort of tiptoeing around their military alliance to avoid pissing off Turkey/Azerbaijan. Armenia also has to deal with the fact that the current government is run by Pashinyan, who's been big on trying to loosen Armenia's ties with Russia and establish more ties with the West - some see Putin's reluctance to fulfill treaty obligations as a way of punishing Pashinyan and trying to force the next Armenian government to fall in line with Russia as previous Armenian governments have done.

And honestly, a part of me thinks these tensions escalating right now are a way of Turkey doing a favour for the EU and asking Azerbaijan to do this - with the Ukraine conflict heating up & the Belarus-migrant crisis, this serves as a way to spread Russia a bit thin.

But also I think the message the OGSE Minsk group has sent to Azerbaijan is: waiting for diplomatic resolution does not work - the US, France and Russia are not motivated enough to resolve conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They failed to resolve the conflict in the 90s, they sat by for nearly 2 months while a war raged on and refused to get involved until a Russian helicopter was shut down. Meanwhile while diplomacy has failed, Azerbaijan's modern military has worked. And if Armenia won't build the road, I think they feel it's easier for them to just take the land themselves.

I don't think this conflict is going away any time soon, even if tensions die down now... I suspect in a decade, or two, or three, or maybe even more... we'll see this conflict heat up again. There's been generations of ethnic hatred and demonisation/dehumanisation from both sides. They talk about each other the same way the Nazis spoke about the Jews. And there's little political appetite for Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan to have normalised diplomatic relations in all 3 countries.

Currently there's the brokered ceasefire between the two, while Pashinyan and Aliyev have agreed to meet with members of the EU on December 15. But Azerbaijani forces are still massing at the border with Armenia. I hope that tensions do not ignite before the two leaders meet.

[Waylander]

@Dr. Gonzo

Very interesting post above, you have a good understanding for me.

I see similarities between the Caucasus and the Balkans though as you are aware the former is currently much more volatile.  

[Waylander]

On 17/11/2021 at 20:32, Gunnersauraus said:

@Dr. Gonzo just had a quick google. Apparently remains of his dental records were found.  His body was burned 

I like history and think it was the general Jodl saying in December '41 they had lost the war as they failed to take Moscow. 

Their war had been Blitzkrieg tactics not attritional warfare,

We know they did not give up there was Stalingrad and Kursk.

One of the very senior Nazis and close to Hitler was Martin Boorman, he has never been found. I would think it is possible after Stalingrad they knew they were going to lose and so constructed an escape plan including experts to attest to false remains. 

Not saying this happened yet would keep an open mind.

[The Artful Dodger]

Ice cream

Edited November 20, 2021 by The Artful Dodger

[MUFC]

Car ploughs into crowd.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59369492

[Cicero]

Running over children during a Christmas parade. 

Special. Very special place in hell for this bloke. 

[MUFC]

45 dead in Bulgerian bus crash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59383852

[MUFC]

Server update.

[Beelzebub]

Videos of Russia building it's military presence around Ukraine circulating. 

Of all the clash points of major powers this seems to me the most likely to happen though I think U.S or even NATO wouldn't  do much just East Europe on it's own.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Khan of TF365

[Tommy]

 

[Beelzebub]

On 25/10/2021 at 14:33, Khan of TF365 said:

Staring a counter of all the attempted coups around the world since Biden took office.

 

Myanmar - 11 days in office

Haiti - 2 weeks and three days in office

Armenia - One month and five days in office 

Jordan - Three months, two weeks and one day in office

Tunisia - 6 months and 6 days in office

Afghanistan - 7 months, three weeks and one day in office

Guinea - 7 months, 2 weeks and 2 days in office

Sudan - 8 months and five days in office 

Update

Solomon Islands - 10 months and a week in office

Total = 9

 

[MUFC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59435965

[Beelzebub]

People protesting Govt and Frech troops in Niger. Live shots fired and tear bombs dropped from jets. Niger has uranium, lots of it. 

There must be justice done to Africa before this planet goes extinct, it won't be fare.

[Tommy]

 

[Stan]

That vile couple who tormented and neglected their 6 year old child to such a degree that he ended up dying. 

Revenge is sweet. Karma is a bitch. 

[Beelzebub]

US defence secretary said Soviet Union instead of Russia while commenting on Ukraine.

Bro you collapsed it 30 years ago

[nudge+]

7 hours ago, Khan of TF365 said:

US defence secretary said Soviet Union instead of Russia while commenting on Ukraine.

Bro you collapsed it 30 years ago

For real?