The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Dr. Gonzo]

32 minutes ago, Gunnersauraus said:

I dont have the most knowledge on the matter. But in a way since the aim of America was to get rid of the Taliban couldnt it be argued this is a war they have lost?

The aim wasn't initially to get rid of the Taliban though. It was to drive Al Qaeda (and other international terror groups) out of Afghanistan and to get Osama Bin Laden. The US was only concerned with the Taliban because of their close relationship with Al Qaeda during the Bin Laden era of that terror group - mostly because while the Taliban are a bunch of religious fundamentalist fuckheads who terrorise people in Afghanistan... they've never really been concerned with international terror.

And while they did not get Bin Laden in Afghanistan... they cripple Al Qaeda and succeeded in removing the Taliban from power to the point where the Taliban offered a surrender to the Afghan government/US.

This surrender was rejected by the Bush administration, Donald Rumsfeld bears most of the culpability there I think (source: https://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/07/news/rumsfeld-rejects-planto-allow-mullah-omar-to-live-in-dignity-taliban.html)

I think had they accepted the surrender and had a slow transition period where Afghanistan's government could work to have a self-sustainable budget (when the US & NATO pulled out this year, Afghanistan's government budget was over 80% reliant on foreign government aid)... they could have had a MUCH shorter war as they kept up the hunt for Bin Laden.

But why I would say the US did lose the war is... they moved the goalposts of what the mission was in Afghanistan. They went from having a clear objective (making Afghanistan no longer safe for Al Qaeda & killing/capturing Bin Laden) to a much more broad mission of "building Afghanistan into a modern liberal democracy." But in doing so, the US supported some really dodgy characters - corrupt dickheads, warlords who'd use US air support to call in strikes on personal rivals, drug traffickers and sex-slave traffickers, etc... And as I mentioned before, the Afghan government was propped up by the West... but it was completely unable to stand on it's own two feet.

And when you see things like the size of the Afghan army being artificially inflated so generals could ask for more aid money... and then taking that money and not paying the existing troops, you can see why soldiers wouldn't want to fight for that government. Go 9 months without pay and tell me you're willing to put your life on the line for people who don't pay you... you wouldn't have any inclination to fight. It's better to focus on what survives next.

Because the US went into a war with a clear objective, and then changed the objective to something more broad and more vague... without working on creating a government that could stand on it's own two feet without the US there to support it... I'd say there's a really good argument they lost their war with the Taliban. Because the Taliban are back in power in Afghanistan & the US spent 20 years, shitloads of money, and sent young men to their deaths... with nothing really to show for it... yes...

there's a really good argument this is a war they've lost.

[Beelzebub]

Taliban announce their new interm government. Only 3 non-Pashtun members, no surprise their. 

It's like the govt in Iran, a spiritual head who's like the mentor then the PM. I think like the IRGC they will keep a special force consisting of their own members only other than taking charge of Afghan army. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

 

[Beelzebub]

On 02/09/2021 at 18:06, Khan of TF365 said:

Why are Jordan and Saudi Arabia so protected off from all the shit that happens around them. They are protected by US but so are others but others have been affected by the spill over in places like Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. 

Does the US has spread the word in the underworld that must stay off of these two or y'all be dead men.

US has removed missile batteries from Saudi, declassified their sensitive documents and postponed visit of defence secretary.

I might have jinxed them

[Beelzebub]

[Beelzebub]

The last one is a bit funny

[Dr. Gonzo]

10 hours ago, Khan of TF365 said:

The last one is a bit funny

And then they wonder why the government they propped up collapsed so quickly...

[Dr. Gonzo]

Iran's now a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - big news for the economic development of the country. No real surprise though, the way things have gone in the past few years after the JCPOA falling apart, Iran is no longer really looking to the West as it seeks to rejoin the global economy - they've turned to China.

I hate Iran's government, but I can't deny that this is really a no-brainer for them. They don't have to adjust their position of challenging the US's global hegemony, they're aligning themselves with a country that is probably the biggest threat to US hegemony worldwide. The US and EU sort of took a harsh stance with Iran as it was complying with an international agreement - and I think there's only so many times you can hope to negotiate with countries that haven't really demonstrated they're willing to stick to the commitments they've made. Granted, I'm not sure China can be entirely trusted to not act similarly if any opportunity arose where it would be beneficial for them to fuck Iran over.

But this news means greater access to global markets that the country hasn't had access to in a while - which is massive news for a country that's had it's economy ravaged by shit policy decisions coupled with US sanctions. From a human rights standpoint it's very shit though because China doesn't give a fuck what it's trade partners are up to within their own countries - just like they expect their trade partners to not give a fuck about what China does within China.

Interesting to note that now 4 neighbors are member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are bordered with Afghanistan: China, Tajikistan, Pakistan and now Iran. It's not just an economic cooperation partnership, but also a military & security partnership. So this may be a signal that China is taking steps to move into Afghanistan.

[Beelzebub]

US Central Command formally accepts none of the 20 people killed in last drone attack in Kabul were ISIS but civilians. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

22 hours ago, Khan of TF365 said:

US Central Command formally accepts none of the 20 people killed in last drone attack in Kabul were ISIS but civilians. 

Only admitted it because of that NYT investigation tbh.

We hear about civilian collateral damage with drones all the time. But the NYT did a great job of breaking down how wrong US intelligence was.

Drones are obviously going to be popular with the militaries that use them… but I do think the ethical considerations of their use in warfare is often overlooked. What we have seen with western military intelligence in the war on terror and wars in the region… is it’s often wrong or the stuff that proves to be right takes years to collect the information and verify (like Bin Laden’s location).

And when you have wrong intel but act quick with drone strikes… there’s a very high risk of just killing innocents.

Btw this is completely off topic but… @Khan of TF365, what do you make of Pakistan having both very close ties to the US and being a partner of theirs… but also your government has close ties with Taliban leadership & Bin Laden’s hideout in Pakistan being basically impossible to believe the military didn’t know they were there?

I can’t really fault any neighboring nation of Afghanistan for having better ties with the Taliban at most, because everyone there wants stability even if their neighbors are cunts. But like… wtf is the Bin Laden stuff? How can Pakistan walk that tightrope between dealing with the US as friends, but also housing a US enemy and getting 0 repercussions for it?

Are Pakistani politicians the biggest smoothtalkers ever?  They need to be giving lessons to loads of other countries.

[Beelzebub]

55 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Btw this is completely off topic but… @Khan of TF365, what do you make of Pakistan having both very close ties to the US and being a partner of theirs… but also your government has close ties with Taliban leadership & Bin Laden’s hideout in Pakistan being basically impossible to believe the military didn’t know they were there?

I can’t really fault any neighboring nation of Afghanistan for having better ties with the Taliban at most, because everyone there wants stability even if their neighbors are cunts. But like… wtf is the Bin Laden stuff? How can Pakistan walk that tightrope between dealing with the US as friends, but also housing a US enemy and getting 0 repercussions for it?

Are Pakistani politicians the biggest smoothtalkers ever?  They need to be giving lessons to loads of other countries.

Firstly what US and Western world in general ignores while dealing with Pakistan is the 'nasty' neighbourhood around it. India has always tried to encircle Pakistan using Pashtun nationalist elements in Afghanistan and you've seen the likes of Ghani complete crooks who've been a pain in the ass for Pakistan since it came to existence.

First PM was killed by a Pashtun nationalist. In 1960s and 70s they literally tried land invasion into Pakistani territories.

So when Pakistan sees that US is completely ignorant of their concerns of hostile regimes being prompted under their noses but they don't care. They rethought their approach towards Taliban but remember before that nearly all of top Taliban leadership was captured by Pakistan and handed over to US. 

And why Pakistan prefers Taliban over the likes of Ghani? Because they don't actively act against them and keep Indian influence out. Even though they also aren't the ideal case.

Even then Pakistan's influence on Taliban is only to the extent of their policy making. Not on ground support and funding which is complete propaganda which Indian networks peddle anytime and Imperialist and Islamophobes in West happy to propagate as it's a cover for their own failures. 

All in all Pakistan reacts to situation in Afghanistan doesn't instigate them. Pakistan has a realistic approach in Afghanistan take the best hand available not what you want. All others players US bomb this, buy those, Iran only sees through the nationalistic view of Persian hegemony. When they see Pakistan doing relatively better they get frustrated like they know something that they don't.

On OBL I personally don't believe a word of the official narrative. You answered your question yourself why no repercussion for something you hunted while screwing the whole world?

Was the same secrecy was around Sadam or Gaddafi death or anyone who US didn't like? so why OBL

There is something more than what meets the eye. But even with what's accepted US forces have stated their was no involvement from within Pakistani sources.

Like how people are coming to realise this whole WoT I'm pretty sure 10-20 years from now something big about his death will also unfold.

[Beelzebub]

[Dr. Gonzo]

Is American military intelligence just bad... or do they lie to the public?

Remember when they told us that Iraq definitely did have WMDs still (and not the ones the US sold it in the 80s and 90s) - turns out that was a complete fabrication, but I think recently I was watching something where an ex-CIA analyst seemed to be genuinely maintaining that it wasn't a fabrication but just bad intel.

Then not understanding the depth of corruption regarding Afghanistan... despite propping up that government entirely? I just can't believe they wouldn't have known the full scale of corruption in the puppet government they put in place.

[Beelzebub]

On 19/09/2021 at 22:45, Khan of TF365 said:

Not on ground support and funding which is complete propaganda which Indian networks peddle anytime and Imperialist and Islamophobes in West happy to propagate as it's a cover for their own failures. 

@Dr. Gonzo This is just what has became apparent because it's just too embarrassing there is a whole network of fake news made up of old domains that were renewed, articles in the name of dead professors or unknown people that are solely focused on fake news and narrative building about Pakistan by the right wing Indian circles. 

Recently EU based organisation investigated this network EU DisinfoLab but after that a handle popped up from India as DisinfoLab even verified by twitter but they later took the bluetick back lol

I'm not bothered about the fake news it's normal in geopolitics but I'm amazed and a bit worried that how they preach it as gospel, even if they know it's fake

[Dr. Gonzo]

Tensions between Azerbaijan & Iran are flaring up. I think it's just sabre rattling because I don't think either country actually wants to go to war with another, but the rhetoric is getting pretty fucking close to wartime rhetoric.

@Khan of TF365 - yeah I'm not surprised by any of the misinformation. Tbh, I think it's the new normal with social media - countries running psy-ops campaigns on people in other countries to influence global politics.

It's pretty common knowledge that most people won't fact check anything, so it's a really effective way at controlling political narratives in other countries.

[Beelzebub]

[Waylander]

On 19/09/2021 at 18:45, Khan of TF365 said:

Firstly what US and Western world in general ignores while dealing with Pakistan is the 'nasty' neighbourhood around it. India has always tried to encircle Pakistan using Pashtun nationalist elements in Afghanistan and you've seen the likes of Ghani complete crooks who've been a pain in the ass for Pakistan since it came to existence.

First PM was killed by a Pashtun nationalist. In 1960s and 70s they literally tried land invasion into Pakistani territories.

So when Pakistan sees that US is completely ignorant of their concerns of hostile regimes being prompted under their noses but they don't care. They rethought their approach towards Taliban but remember before that nearly all of top Taliban leadership was captured by Pakistan and handed over to US. 

And why Pakistan prefers Taliban over the likes of Ghani? Because they don't actively act against them and keep Indian influence out. Even though they also aren't the ideal case.

Even then Pakistan's influence on Taliban is only to the extent of their policy making. Not on ground support and funding which is complete propaganda which Indian networks peddle anytime and Imperialist and Islamophobes in West happy to propagate as it's a cover for their own failures. 

All in all Pakistan reacts to situation in Afghanistan doesn't instigate them. Pakistan has a realistic approach in Afghanistan take the best hand available not what you want. All others players US bomb this, buy those, Iran only sees through the nationalistic view of Persian hegemony. When they see Pakistan doing relatively better they get frustrated like they know something that they don't.

On OBL I personally don't believe a word of the official narrative. You answered your question yourself why no repercussion for something you hunted while screwing the whole world?

Was the same secrecy was around Sadam or Gaddafi death or anyone who US didn't like? so why OBL

There is something more than what meets the eye. But even with what's accepted US forces have stated their was no involvement from within Pakistani sources.

Like how people are coming to realise this whole WoT I'm pretty sure 10-20 years from now something big about his death will also unfold.

While the club football is on hold.

What's your thoughts on the tribal areas of Pakistan are they semi-autonomous of the Pakistani govt or completely a law unto themselves?

I don't believe a lot of the war on terror nor the disappearance of OBL.

Israel is once again making noises over Iran's nuclear progress yet the US may be more focused on the South China sea. Recent reports refer to over 50 PRC planes invading Taiwanese airspace.

Independent observers suspect China sees the US as being weak following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and so are testing their resolve.

[Beelzebub]

4 hours ago, Waylander said:

While the club football is on hold.

What's your thoughts on the tribal areas of Pakistan are they semi-autonomous of the Pakistani govt or completely a law unto themselves?

I don't believe a lot of the war on terror nor the disappearance of OBL.

Israel is once again making noises over Iran's nuclear progress yet the US may be more focused on the South China sea. Recent reports refer to over 50 PRC planes invading Taiwanese airspace.

Independent observers suspect China sees the US as being weak following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and so are testing their resolve.

Right now they were incorporated into the rest of Pakthun province from being a special federally administrated region. So on paper they are completely part of the country.

But on the ground yes their own set of rules and code is still much relevant. Tribal chiefs are mainly elected in the assembly, their own tribal courts have more value than actual courts etc

That is the history of that region. Even British used it mainly as a frontier with Afghanistan not wishing to establish their rule on it.

I don't really mind it you can't force someone to hug something, If they prefer their thousand years old tribal code more that shouldn't be an issue. Spain has similar kind of problems in some of it's regions, problem arises when you resort to violence to challenge the state which creates nothing but unnecessary deaths for everybody and doesn't achieve anything.

In that way situation is much better than 10-12 years ago it was really made worse by WoT since US drones killed people there and they turned on Pakistani govt for siding with US the reason TTP the Pakistani Taliban group were created, many have formally joined the state setup but some factions still remain at odds and reports are Pakistani govt is in talks with some of them who are willing to negotiate.

I'm totally for negotiations but there is one faction within them which used to run drug trade in those parts who carried out that attack on school killing 140 children in 2014, no matter what happened killing children is part of no tribal code or armed conduct. They should be brought to justice and they aren't willing to talk either. 

 

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

At least 50 dead in an attack on a Shia mosque in Afghanistan. Really bad time to be a Shia Muslim in Afghanistan - they're not really liked by either many of the Taliban (although some of the Taliban leadership claim they want to be more inclusive - but... you can't trust the Taliban...) & ISIS loves killing Shias more than anything else.

[Dr. Gonzo]

When was the last time I posted some good news in this thread? Usually news from this part of the world is... well, not the greatest.

Here's some good news: Iraq's arrested the mastermind behind ISIS's most deadly suicide bombing in Iraq. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58957048

[Beelzebub]

 

[Waylander]

On 19/09/2021 at 18:45, Khan of TF365 said:

Firstly what US and Western world in general ignores while dealing with Pakistan is the 'nasty' neighbourhood around it. India has always tried to encircle Pakistan using Pashtun nationalist elements in Afghanistan and you've seen the likes of Ghani complete crooks who've been a pain in the ass for Pakistan since it came to existence.

First PM was killed by a Pashtun nationalist. In 1960s and 70s they literally tried land invasion into Pakistani territories.

So when Pakistan sees that US is completely ignorant of their concerns of hostile regimes being prompted under their noses but they don't care. They rethought their approach towards Taliban but remember before that nearly all of top Taliban leadership was captured by Pakistan and handed over to US. 

And why Pakistan prefers Taliban over the likes of Ghani? Because they don't actively act against them and keep Indian influence out. Even though they also aren't the ideal case.

Even then Pakistan's influence on Taliban is only to the extent of their policy making. Not on ground support and funding which is complete propaganda which Indian networks peddle anytime and Imperialist and Islamophobes in West happy to propagate as it's a cover for their own failures. 

All in all Pakistan reacts to situation in Afghanistan doesn't instigate them. Pakistan has a realistic approach in Afghanistan take the best hand available not what you want. All others players US bomb this, buy those, Iran only sees through the nationalistic view of Persian hegemony. When they see Pakistan doing relatively better they get frustrated like they know something that they don't.

On OBL I personally don't believe a word of the official narrative. You answered your question yourself why no repercussion for something you hunted while screwing the whole world?

Was the same secrecy was around Sadam or Gaddafi death or anyone who US didn't like? so why OBL

There is something more than what meets the eye. But even with what's accepted US forces have stated their was no involvement from within Pakistani sources.

Like how people are coming to realise this whole WoT I'm pretty sure 10-20 years from now something big about his death will also unfold.

The way I heard it was the delta force that supposedly took out OBL had their helicopter shot down shortly afterwards. It looks very suspicious.

I personally think he died some time ago in the Afghan caves as the US were moving in and blowing things up.

 

 

[Beelzebub]

A former Saudi official and spy calls MBS a psychopath, he considered murdering his uncle through a poisoned ring. 

I honestly see some huge schism happening in the royal family either in his life or after his succession. Saudis had a tradition that the brother not the son succeeded the King, he superseded his uncle.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mohammed-bin-salman-alleged-plot-saad-aljabri-60-minutes-2021-10-24/#click=https://t.co/y7Dn86xyG7

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 23/10/2021 at 06:27, Khan of TF365 said:

 

What a legend.

Shame he's probably going to be tortured horrifically now.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Today I learned: the country I was born in is directly responsible for the IRI killing off some of my family members.

https://portside.org/2020-01-25/how-britain-helped-irans-islamic-regime-destroy-its-left-wing-opposition
 

And after the collapse of the revolution’s first government in the middle of the Iran-Iraq war & purges of the 80s, I think most hope of Iran’s revolutionary ever shifting from the theocracy it ended up with probably died.

It’s mental how badly world powers can fuck other countries up over geopolitical struggles, then was their hands of the blame and do things like impose sanctions collectively punishing all Iranians in Iran for a course of events they’ve had a hand in pushing along the way.