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Euro 2020 Preview - Italy


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Posted

🇮🇹 Italy 🇮🇹

Forget about their World Cup qualification campaign as this is a completely different Italian team.

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Road to Euro 2021
The Italians were one of the most impressive teams in qualification. They won all 10 of their games, scoring an impressive 37 goals in the process and keeping clean sheets in 60% of their matches. A 5-0 win against Liechtenstein and a 9-1 thrashing of Armenia were the most notable highlights as they qualified with three games to spare and a +33 goal difference. Only Belgium performed better. 

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What to Expect
Manager Roberto Mancini has got The Azzurri focused on efficient build-up play through a possession based style of football. In the group stage this is unlikely to change as the draw has been rather fortunate to Italy in the sense that they have Wales and Turkey in their group. These are two teams that notably sit back and try to exploit their opposition with pace on the counter attack.

How Italy will fare against teams who like to keep possession is unknown on this stage based on the quality of opposition they have faced recently. They are however on a 25 game unbeaten run and will enter all fixtures in this tournament with confidence.

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Possible Lineup
Whilst rotation in certain positions has been a common theme for Roberto Mancini, there are some patterns in his team selections that makes us believe he has a strong opinion on who forms his strongest eleven.

Gianluigi Donnarumma's place on goal is assured after only conceding three goals in the qualification period. Likewise, Alessandro Florenzi and Emerson Palmieri regularly occupy the full back positions ahead of Leonardo Spinazzola and Danilo D'Ambrosio. The centre-back position is a little more unclear, Leonardo Bonucci appears to be favoured as a starter with either veteran Giorgio Chiellini or Francesco Acerbi alongside him.

The midfield three seems most settled when it consists of Marco Verratti, Jorginho and Nicolo Barrella. Stefano Sensi and Mauro Locatelli however provide healthy competition and there will be an expectancy that whoever starts performs immediately.

Most rotation appears to occur in the front three, which is unsurprising given the plethora of talent in these positions. Lorenzo Insigne seems the most assured of a starting place and is expected to start on the left side of a front three. However there is every possibility that as the tournament progresses Roberto Mancini will want to make use of the Roma Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini's versatility in an attacking midfield role which could lead to Lorenzo Insigne making way. 

On the right hand side it appears to be a battle between Federico Chiesa and Domenico Berardi for Roberto Mancini's affections. We favour Federico Chiesa to get the not ahead of Domenico Berardi in a tournament where many predicted him to be a potential stand out player last year as he was looking to impress potential suitors in the transfer window.

The centre piece of the puzzle however is arguably the most intriguing battle and is likely to cause the most debate. Both Ciro Immobile and Andrea Bellotti will be hoping to lead the line for The Azzurri heading in to this summer. Both players scored in the games they started in the most recent round of qualifying matches for the World Cup which makes Roberto Mancini's decision even more difficult. We favour Ciro Immobile to start this campaign, but we wouldn't be surprised to see Andre Bellotti feature and make an impression given that Ciro Immobile has struggled to replicate has Lazio form regularly at international level.

Then there's the dilemma of how Italy would line up if Nicola Zaniolo is fit which could change everything.

 

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Key Player
When Marco Verratti left Pescara for Paris Saint Germain back in 2012 people were quick to make comparisons between himself and the great Zinedine Zidane. Whilst he has undoubtedly had a successful career at a PSG side which he currently captains, he has never hit those heights.

However, in the deep lying playmaker role he is the focal point to everything that Roberto Mancini builds this Italian team around. If there is ever a time for him to shine in a successful Italian team this feels like it. Italy has a rich history of incredible technical footballers and Marco Verratti knows he will need to be the MVP in this side if he wants to place himself amongst the legend of Italian football.

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Prediction
There seems to be an element of optimism around The Azzurri at the minute that could see them progress very far in this tournament. William Hill has them at 12/1 to win the tournament as of 01/04/2021 which seems very generous in contrast to those teams around them. Given there squad depth and recent international form, you could argue a case for them beating anybody. Lets hope for their sakes, nobody tries any of the antics Graziano Pelle tried at the last European Championships if they're forced in to another penalty shoot out.
 

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Posted

Of all the previews this was the one I enjoyed writing the most so I'm glad it turned out to be pretty much spot on.

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