Dan

Yeah I get the thinking, I see plenty doing this with bet builders where they'll throw in something like over 0.5 goals just to slightly boost the odds. It's all along the right sort of lines though particularly at some of the prices you're getting on these. It's the winning method within this so far anyway.

Sounds like plenty are losing in here this week. Luckily you've got me here to save us at the weekend!

I think you'd have to be mad to back in this market at that price - not so much this weekend but this market is particularly reactive. Say Chelsea had a game at half 12 and they lost it, Heckingbottom would shoot back up to probably 3/1 without them even playing.

I agree with the Cooper shout, I don't think he should be sacked at all for what it's worth but I think Marinakis wants to aim higher in his eyes. Not a bad dark horse pick.

WEEK 8 - UPTURN AND THE BIGGEST WIN YET We're back in the green this week but it's mainly thanks to one particular member which shall be covered later. The hint is it isn't me. We have a new leader this week in the form of @Machado who seems to favour calculated safe picks. Sporting took their time to bag in their trip to Austria but did end up scoring twice in a late turnaround win. Bayern hit twice in the space of four minutes to pay out the original leg of the bet, to take home a £7.64 profit and put himself back in the green. A congratulations must go to @CaaC (John) for this weeks effort though. He's gone a little more conservative in recent weeks rather than picking audatious upset scorelines and instead just picking an underdog to go with a favourite. I'll mention again that you get one bet a week, one £10 bet and you use it on one or two selections, rather than two £5 bets - luckily there's not yet been any issue as you've either won on both or lost on both, but this week for example your two selections will be put into a £10 double rather than two sets of £5. This may cost you on another week, however this week Everton's win at Brentford contributed to the season's biggest win yet, and the same result was the single biggest odds winner to pay out this season as they turned in a surprise 1-3 victory. Hibs made no mistake in their leg of the bet either, beating St Johnstone 2-0 at home. Should you have done two £5 bets on these outcomes, you would be £19.40 up rather than the £57.12 you are! @Stan had built up a bit of profit meaning that he stays in the green despite falling to a second straight loss this weekend. Interested to hear the rationale behind the games you're going for on these - are they just random or is there a reason those particular fixtures were singled out? I do find it quite peculiar that a game that ended 6-2 didn't pay out here as that just hints chaos to me, but we only had the one card in this game, which surprises me. @Storts hasn't predicted for a while but retains a top half spot. @Pyfish is let down by Anthony Gordon failing to get a card at the San Siro, although Luton did score a goal for a selection winner, albeit in quite dubious circumstances. @Lucas can consider himself unlucky to lose this week. Tonali picking up an impressive 4 fouls on his return home, Guimaraes 1 but Theo Hernandez failing to commit any - probably helped by how dominant Milan were during most of the game. @RandoEFC's peculiar asian handicap bet has resulted in the first breakeven of the season as both teams ended up with single goal victories - with Real Madrid's coming in injury time and Bayern - Man Utd's back and forth resulting in a 4-3, so it can't be classed as a winner, but a good example of the value of asian handicaps I suppose and how it's a good way to hedge a bet - I say as somebody who was done by Barcelona at the weekend failing to win their game by over a goal. @...Dan's trip to France doesn't pay off as Pau ended up losing 0-3 to Annecy, although St Etienne did win their game so he gets that selection right at least. And then we move to me. Eight bets. Eight losses. This one is probably the worst yet. Absolute abject toss in every way imaginable. Two comfortable favourites both fail to land either leg of the bet, both suffering shock defeats. Aston Villa's performance was abysmal, I didn't think they would fall into the same pitfall that we did two years ago yet here we are. Brighton really surprised me though, I thought they would take AEK to pieces and they've not only failed to hit 3 goals, but they've lost the game and are in a pretty precarious position in the group now. I don't think many would believe me if I told them I won around £400 this weekend on separate accumulators, but I'm definitely picking the wrong stuff to throw onto here. I however retain faith that this is going to turn around, but simply funny to lose eight straight. It's really, really bad. Appalling. Overall, it's actually the second best week yet though. WEEK 8 STATS Winning bets: 2/8 (25%) Winning selections: 7/13* (53.8%) Weekly forum position: +£14.76 *Includes Asian Handicap 'push' x2 - not included as winner or loser OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 12/56 (21.43%) Winning selections: 44/107 (41.1%) Total forum position: -£195.82

I've been doing it as a £10 bet on either a single or a double - however these have both won so it's gonna be as a £10 double. A very good win as well actually. Going to be £70ish off the top of my head. Shoots you up the table.

How is it even possible to be this unlucky

This according to WhoScored has lost; https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1775679/LiveStatistics/Europe-Champions-League-2023-2024-AC-Milan-Newcastle Tonali 4 Guimaraes 1 Hernandez 0

I happened to look at this yesterday about Gordon and I had him to be booked in their game against Liverpool. It turns out that's the only game this season he hasn't been booked in. That's a good price in a game like that.

I actually really quite like this bet in general, completely agree with the reasoning, only catch for me is Real Madrid do have a bit of a weird knack of losing silly group games but I think that's also because they're quite slow starters often and really grow into a season, whereas this season they've won every game.

In which case that's table updated, albeit still a loss for you but slightly boosts the all important selection wins.

For mine this week I head to Europe and a couple of teams who have either never played there, or are making a debut. I'm very big on Brighton. I think they're easily one of the best 5 teams in England in this day and age and despite it being an opening game in Europe, this is a quite kind fixture. AEK Athens are Greek champions but they have started quite badly this time out, and there is a quite severe gulf in quality in this game so I fully expect Brighton to hit 3/4. I think evens on them getting 3 is quite generous. Aston Villa I'm less big on but I simply think they have the best manager for these games they could have and they will make a far better fist of this fixture than we did two years ago. Legia are poor, the Polish league is miles off it now and I fully expect the gulf in quality to shine through. £10 returns £30.

WEEK 7 - REGRESSION The run of progressive improvement is over as a tough post international weekend takes its toll on most who played this weekend, with quite a number of odd results in my opinion. @Stan retains his lead at the top of the table but he's miles off this weekend, as Ebbsfleet v Chesterfield ended 0-1 and the Oxford City - Dagenham game, where 4 goals were needed, ended goalless. It's a familiar theme to how mine have gone this season with many results seeming more random than ever. To rub salt into the wounds, the other bet he nearly went for at bigger odds paid quite considerably, so hopefully you took them both for real! @Pyfish rushed his selections by his own admittance and neither of his goalscorers found the net, but an interesting angle to go with as well, I think you certainly have the possibility of some nice payouts looking at those sorts of odds and I might even go up that route myself. He remains in 99p profit overall, but strangely not the nearest to breakeven. That goes to @Machado who couldn't follow up last weeks win this time around. It isn't entirely clear what he's bet on to me from the screenshot, but he's definitely in some form backed Estrela Amadora and Augsburg and both of them lost so he definitely hasn't won. @Lucas becomes the 6th member to land a winner, deserting me at the bottom of the table and in the process landing the season's biggest victory so far with a nicely executed double. Oxford's price seems absurdly big in hindsight, they won 0-3 against a dreadful Fleetwood and Chesterfield as mentioned earlier won 0-1. @RandoEFC claims the first 'push' of the season. As somebody still fairly unfamiliar with Asian Handicap's exact ruling I was at least aware that a Tottenham 1 goal victory made this a draw no bet essentially, and their late turnaround means the Barcelona 5-0 victory is enough to seal the smallest win of the season, but a win nontheless - two wins in a row after starting with five losses. And then we move onto the three who are still yet to win. @CaaC (John)'s bet I had registered as a double but neither selection actually won anyway, with a 2-2 draw in Scotland and Inter winning the Milan derby 5-1. And then me and @...Dan - he picks a nice winner with Dinamo Zagreb, who pick up a 3-0 victory over Slaven Belupo to secure the -2 handicap victory. But we must talk Lens. A pretty remarkable game, one of the weird occasions where I place a bet at a particular price, and what pans out actually makes me think despite it losing the price was slightly higher than it ought to have been. They absolutely dominated it from start to finish yet couldn't find the goal. A genuine freak of a result and a massive blow to them, their bad start gets worse as the Champions League gets underway. It didn't cost me as naturally I managed to dry up Swindon's chaos (2-0), but a Lens win here would've secured Dan a £19.18 win - which would've actually seen the forum profit by 2p overall this weekend A bad weekend. 7 fucking losses in a row. I was genuinely really good at this last season, I had my best ever season for betting but this season's been complete and utter rubbish. I'm calling a lot of bad luck. It'll come. WEEK 7 STATS Winning bets: 2/8 (25%) Winning selections: 5/15* (33.33%) Weekly forum position: -£19.16 *Includes Asian Handicap 'push' - not included as winner or loser OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 10/48 (20.83%) Winning selections: 37/94 (39.4%) Total forum position: -£210.58

I know you've lost but am I reading this right - you've gone for Estrela Amadora to not lose (price seems really short for this which makes me think I'm wrong) and Augsburg to avoid losing by 2 or more?

There is literally no way I'm not finishing bottom

No more fucking about. Lens v Metz (1.50) - Lens were fantastic at home last season and I still think even despite a weak start this year, they will come good again and this represents a very good opportunity, at home to arguably the leagues weakest side. They've started badly but I think the price has come up from what it really ought to be and it's largely due to bad luck of the fixture scheduling. I watched them against Rennes and they really ought to have won. Home win for me. Swindon v Walsall - over 2.5 goals (1.72) - It always feels like a trap backing something like this but Swindon's games are simply chaos, 31 goals in 6 games so far, over 2.5 goals paying out in 5 of those 6 games, while Walsall have had 5 out of 7 pay out themselves. This to me seems a generous price for a pretty expected outcome. £10 on a double to return £25.80.

I run it over a weekly period so you get your £10 single / double once a week, you can pick anything providing it's settled before Tuesday. Obviously now the internationals are done and nobody went for them.

WEEK 6 - FURTHER PROFIT! Slightly unpredicted delays in getting the table up (aka I totally forgot) but we have posted our best week of the season so far, more green representation than an extinction rebellion rally and the fourth week in a row that the overall result was better than the previous week. The international week saw a slightly lower uptake with those games and lower leagues the only places to turn to, but this seemed to not affect performance. @Stan lands his 3rd winner overall and 2nd in a row with a lower league goals double. Crawley v Newport a very wise pick as Newport have paid out over 2.5 in all seven of their league games so far. This was in by the 54th minute in a game that ended 4-1 to the hosts. It was far less plain sailing at Chesterfield as this took until the 90th minute, although it actually ended 3-1 in the end. This win takes him back to the top ahead of @Pyfish. @Machado becomes only the second player to make a winning opening pick and climbs straight to 3rd in the table following this win. Playing a fairly safe pair of picks but this is generally proving quite effective. Bristol Rovers won their game 4-1 in the week, and Slovenia had their goal over a declining Northern Ireland within 4 minutes, in a game they would go on to win 4-2. @CaaC (John) plays slightly more reserved than picking exact scorelines this week, but his pair of long shots get no nearer. Ukraine did manage a draw with England, but Estonia were beaten 0-5 by Sweden in Tallinn. @RandoEFC is finally off the mark as Spain and France both won convincingly, Spain hitting an impressive 7 in their win in Georgia. Finally, I plunge to the bottom of the table as @Lucas didn't predict and I once again lost, after Accrington couldn't find a goal against Mansfield. I'm having no luck at all this season, I've absolutely no doubt if I had backed the Mansfield win they would've drawn it like they usually seem to when I pick them. Crewe are the comeback, and consequently BTTS kings. It's a strong week on the whole though, our best yet. Plenty to go with this week, still not finished with internationals, and the usual stuff is back this weekend. WEEK 6 STATS Winning bets: 3/5 (60%) Winning selections: 7/10 (70%) Weekly forum position: +£16.17 OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 8/40 (20%) Winning selections: 32/79 (40.5%) Total forum position: -£191.43

Forest Green v Crewe - BTTS (1.72) Accrington v Mansfield - BTTS (1.66) Four quite open teams based on my ever reliable research. Don't let me down. £10 returns £28.55.

Quite like the Slovenia pick in general as Northern Ireland are pretty awful again now. That sort of thing was why I originally started this a few years ago, hence the name tipping game as opposed to say "betting game". I've no idea why I do so badly at this because in general I genuinely do quite well nowadays. Crap luck really. Suppose I'd rather lose the hypothetical money than real though (though I have actually put a £10 on every bet I've had so far).

Nope, in-fact if you joined this week and lost you'd still likely be 5th at worst

WEEK 5 - PROFIT! A round of applause from everybody who played, or should I say, five of us who played to the two who have carried the forum into its first weekly profit of the season. In what is collectively the forum's best week for both selections and money, it's nice to see that people seem to be getting to grips with things, with only @CaaC (John)'s latest 50 yard firecracker going out for a throw in and producing no selection winners. @Pyfishclaims his second straight victory courtesy of the late drama at the Emirates. Two solid priced selections and the £28.50 profit is the biggest win of the season, becoming the second person to enter profit this weekend and leapfrogging the first, @Stan in the process, who claims his second win as well. Following some very harsh luck of late it was nice to see the late goal arrive this time, as Real Madrid broke down Getafe in injury time to win 2-1. Crewe vs MK Dons was roundly tipped as a game that would produce goals and it didn't disappoint, with Crewe yet again producing a comeback albeit this time it was to win rather than draw. It's nice seeing somebody get knocked off the top by courtesy of not predicting rather than the other way around. @...Danwas quite unlucky in his selection, Real Betis, another team quite widely tipped on the basis they were being overlooked due to the tough fixtures they'd opened with, recorded a 1-0 victory over a Rayo Vallecano side that managed to somehow ship 7 at home to Atletico Madrid the week previous. Athletic had the better of Mallorca but couldn't find the winner, it ended goalless. So that's two bets on Leicester games made by me so far, and it's two losses, where I backed us to not beat Coventry and we did, I backed us to take another win and BTTS against Hull. Despite Hull's early goal, the usual 2-1 victory never arrived for us. Arsenal delivered though, which was the best priced selection of the weekend to win, but the double whammy of losing backing your own team strikes me with a fifth straight loss. Rounding up the five-loss trio is @Lucas and @RandoEFC, the former picking a pretty overpriced Spurs (great hindsight there) to win at a struggling Burnley but being let down by the league leaders MK Dons. Rando unfortunately went for the 'safe' option and is still burnt by picking Chelsea to do something a bit out of the ordinary for them, and score goals. This selection is the shortest priced pick made all season to lose, so it's a real blow. It's a much better week on the whole though. I think I'll probably get some graphs made of the progress over the season at some point, and interestingly that's now three weeks in a row that the collective balance of the forum has improved on the week before, but we're still miles away from breaking even. A tough week this week though - internationals have hit the traditional fixtures and even most of League One has fallen, so you've got to be pretty creative this time out! WEEK 5 STATS Winning bets: 2/7 (28.5%) Winning selections: 8/14 (57.14%) Weekly forum position: +£5.02 OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 5/35 (14.3%) Winning selections: 25/69 (36.2%) Total forum position: -£207.59

Actually a much better weekend in here. Will get a write up done later just incase somebody else fancies anything for Monday.

Fuck you Leicester fuck you!

Me, Rando and Lucas are all a disgrace man.