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Dan

Games Master
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About Dan

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    Город Лестер

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    Leicester City

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  1. Season One | 2016/17 | 2.Bundesliga Transfers As stated, I felt like we were weak at centre half and this was my priority for my low budget. I went in for Sporting's transfer listed defender Tobias Figueiredo but he turned us down for Panathinaikos which was a real kick in the teeth, because there really wasn't a great deal else out there and he would've been perfect - cheap, good and young. In-fact, it would transpire that very little would happen in this window for us. We did sign 15 year old defender Lars Franz who was a risk free signing, before the first real bit of moneyball took place on deadline day as left back Timo Perthel was sold to Freiburg for £1.4mil. He was my second choice left back, about to turn 28 and I had other cover in this position, so selling him made total sense and I had a little bit left to play with. In came Spanish goalkeeper Nestor from Celta Vigo for £165k, he was rated at 3 stars with potential to go up to 4.5, aged just 24 he was a perfect cover for first choice Riemann and there was a view to him eventually replacing him.Two bits of business that see me strengthen one area by more than I weaken another, yet I make over £1million in the process. This is essentially moneyball. The problem however is we don't really address our problems at centre half, although I spot a very tidy youngster in Tom Baack who I move to the first team squad aged just 17, whilst still having him playing for the U19s but training with the first team with him being called upon when needed. For now we had Felix Bastians, Tim Hoogland and Patrick Fabian who could play there, so Baack became 4th choice, and 3rd choice in the interim as Fabian was injured. In: Lars Franz (free), Nestor (Celta Vigo, £165k). TOTAL: £165k Out: Timo Perthel (Freiburg, £1.4mil). TOTAL: £1.4mil Time for some actual football I settled on a 4-2-3-1 formation with my strongest XI going into the season as... Riemann / Celozzi - Hoogland - Bastians - Danilo / Merkel - Losilla / Sam - Eisfeld - Stoger / Diamantakos. We kicked off the season with a bland 0-0 draw at Darmstadt which I'd probably take assuming we won our home game with Union Berlin. We didn't. 1-1 draw after throwing away the lead late on. We picked up our first win in our third game by beating Dynamo Dresden away 0-2, a very satisfying win followed by progression in the cup away at lower league Viktoria Koln. Our first loss came to Nurnberg with a late, and in my eyes undeserved winner. We bounced back with a 1-0 victory over Sandhausen but went on to bottle a 2-0 lead at home to 10 man Braunschweig in our next game, a shocking result. The next two games were no better, another late goal costs us away at Heidenheim for another draw, before we're beaten comfortably by high flying St Pauli leaving me around 8th in the table. Not good enough really, our defending not up to scratch. This seemed to be the catalyst for an improvement as we went on to win 6 of our next 7 games in all competitions, beating Aue in both the league and the cup and sending us into the last 16 of that while propelling to around the top spots of the league. The good form went into December and we turned up in our biggest game of the season to beat league leaders (and historical rivals) Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 from a goal down to take top spot. We then blew another lead at home this time to Duisburg with quite possibly the least deserved goal I can remember, before bouncing back by doing the exact same to Darmstadt the following week with only ten men on the field. We lost to Union Berlin away before the winter break and went in in 2nd, annoyingly still behind Bielefeld. Winter transfers This is where the controversy would kick in. We did have a little bit more money than before due to the Perthel sale and while I didn't think we needed loads, we were still for me a centre half and a left winger short. In came 23 year old Dario Zuparic from Pescara and 22 year old Juan Camara from Barcelona for £300k and £210k respectively. Zuparic was unlikely to start (Fabian had been surprisingly brilliant upon his return) but we needed the cover, and Camara was likely to challenge Stoger for the left wing spot as Stoger is actually a number ten by trade. And then deadline day hits. In come Hamburg with an offer for Felix Bastians. He is my best defender attributes wise (although he had been outperformed by Fabian) and my only left sided one. He's worth £2.2mil and aged 28, but we manage to negotiate Hamburg up to £4mil and, sadly, he's a goner. We do need the money as well really, this Sidney Sam contract is eating away at us and we're losing money. It was a very tough decision because we got more than he was worth, and we really could've done without losing him for this season but in the long-run, it made sense, his decline was soon to come and I backed us to be able to replace him. This is where I was wrong, and the scouts let me down. We managed to bring in Croatian defender Igor Bubnjic from Udinese for £230k who was like Bastians, left sided, good in the air, but he wasn't really as good. He was younger and there was a view to him progressing, but it did feel like a big gamble given we were in the promotion mix. Still, these are the rules and I had to follow them, although I do appreciate that there was a good case for criticising this move. We also brought in Daniel Owusu from St Pauli, a 16 year old centre half. We also sold Greek youngster Vangelis Pavlidis to Olympiakos for £400k, no loss at all, he's rubbish although I did manage to get a 50% of the next fee clause thrown in there on the off chance they've spotted something I missed. You would have to say, on the whole, the squad is stronger than it was when I took over and yet we have money in the bank from the process. In: Lars Franz (free), Nestor (Celta Vigo, £160k), Juan Camara (Barcelona, £210k), Dario Zuparic (Pescara, £300k), Igor Bubnjic (Udinese, £230k), Daniel Owusu (St Pauli, £79k). TOTAL: £975k Out: Timo Perthel (Freiburg, £1.4mil), Vangelis Pavlidis (Olympiakos, £400k), Felix Bastians (Hamburg, £4mil). TOTAL: £5.4mil Back to the actual football We went into the second half of the season with a home game against bottom club Dynamo Dresden. Surprise surprise, we drew 0-0. We followed this up with another draw at Sandhausen, and a last gasp victory in the cup away at third tier Paderborn meaning we were into the quarter finals, with a number of the big hitters already out. This prompted another three league wins on the bounce including revenge on Braunschweig by beating them away with a last second goal, although they sadly were to have the last laugh as they knocked us out of the cup at our place, despite me taking a late lead, absolutely gutting given it was a favourable tie at such a late round. We softened the blow with resounding 1-3 and 3-0 victories over St Pauli and Ingolstadt (pre-season title favourites) and we really did look good for promotion as we sat on top of the pile. Felix who? Nor Zuparic or Bubnjic had really played as well as Bastians but we were still good enough as a team to cope, or so I thought... Eight games remained and we were around 7 points clear of 4th. For those who don't know, the top two go up and third place face a two legged play-off with 16th (third bottom) of the Bundesliga. I don't think the squad's really good enough to be trusted to beat a Bundesliga side over two legs but I did think we'd manage to get a top two place, although it'd be nice to finish above Bielefeld as they're completely over-achieved so I don't want them taking all the plaudits. Disaster would strike in the form of a 4 game run which saw us only take a point - at home to a dreadful Aue side. We lost at Dusseldorf and allowed an abysmal Jahn Regensburg to complete an unlikely double over us, before the criminal loss which was a 2-0 defeat at Kaiserslautern - the side in 4th place. Questions were being asked of the Bastians sale and I have to admit, this is where I thought I'm seeing the true downside of this method here, and the irony is should it cost us promotion, well, that does us absolutely no favours financially either. Maybe it was worth keeping him. We arrested the slide in style however, thumping Greuther Furth 3-0 with three late goals following an extremely frustrating opening 70 from a side fighting for their lives. We then went and produced the same result away at Holstein Kiel, ahead of the big one. Arminia Bielefeld at home. Victory could guarantee us promotion, and would put us top of the pile going into the final day. We won 1-0. But we weren't up, Kaiserslautern won again. We were guaranteed a top three finish regardless but we wanted that top spot really, although you'd take 2nd too even if it does mean you've been fortunate. The final day.... We bottled it, but so did Kaiserslautern and theirs was truly spectacular, going down 5-3 to a side who had scored under a goal a game all season. Our result was a disgrace given the struggles of Duisburg and the fact we played against ten men for the majority of the game - even more astounding to think we'd registered over 50 shots to Duisburg's 6 over two games and won neither of them. Bielefeld pinched the title from us but we had ultimately achieved our aim, we were promoted! Any other business Though I've criticised him a lot, Sidney Sam regularly delivered the goods and was easily our best player all considered. I still think despite this, I'd let him go on the cheap purely because his wages are astronomical, but he did what he could so it's hard to slate the bloke. The signings all played their part with Nestor, Zuparic, Bubnjic and Camara all getting runs in the side, although I do question how much use they'll be in the Bundesliga. A lot of it is budget dependant for me now. We kept an impressive 17 clean sheets out of 34 games which kind of supplements the theory about clean sheets being worth over 2 points a game on average. Diamantakos didn't really score enough but I do think his game is largely about more than just that and I was satisfied with his overall contribution. The likes of Eisfeld and Wurtz also turned up when it mattered. We were in the mix and got what we wanted, a shame we couldn't win the league and a shame we didn't win when the pressure truly was on, but by hook or by crook, we made it.
  2. Dan

    Bolton Players Face Wage Delay

    Absolute banker for the drop sadly. What an absolute shambles.
  3. Introduction Well here we are, I've kind of explained what moneyball is before and what that link says gives you a proper explanation about what it is as well. I tried to do a save using a moneyball formula at Shrewsbury but here's what happened - it kind of worked, but we profited significantly through a sell-on clause of a player that went for around £25million so while that was obviously fantastic for the club, I couldn't really pinpoint all the success on that. I left Shrewsbury as a midtable Championship side and sure enough, months later they would sell a winger I had signed on a free for £33million!!!!! Absurdly overpriced but that kind of proves that it does work. Sure enough, the new regime would totally squander the money on absolute rubbish when I feel like if I'd stayed, I could've probably taken them to the Premier League, but never mind. I picked Bochum for two reasons. The first is that I wanted a bigger club than Shrewsbury, but one that was absolutely miles off being successful still so the obvious medium is to pick a 2nd tier side, kind of similarly to the Bristol City thread (I know they were third tier but the first season promotion was a formality) as I feel like it's probably the right position for things to really get going from. The other reason is that I fancied a save in Germany as I think it's the league system I've under-used the most in FM despite it ticking just about every box I want - good youth development, genuine chance to build a good side as the league, while strong, isn't unbeatable (bar Bayern seemingly), not particularly straining on my players either with 34 games in the season. I recently went to a Bochum game, something a group of my mates have been doing for a while and it was a really decent little trip, so who better than them? Once again, it's to be played on FM17. Not a fan of 18 or 19, and the squads are for the 2017/18 season so it's a little bit bizarre - I did download a 2018/19 squad but they've not taken into account the promotions and relegations, and it's frankly ridiculous having Wolves' and Fulham's squads in the Championship so I just reverted to how it was. The rules I have to follow the rules with the occasional deviation where common sense dictates. For example, I won't be selling a 15 year old 5 star prospect who is valued at £60,000 for an offer of £100,000 because it's simply daft. The fundamental thinking behind this is that you are very clever with your money and you maximise what you get for it. I've always kind of stuck to this rule, but I'm going to be even pickier in this save and I'm going to ensure that in the long-run the club is extremely healthy with sensible investing in players, and exploiting the idiocy of other clubs, of which you'll be reading about plenty in this thread. So for a 'brief' overview... 1. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend (pp. 14-21) This is an interesting one where it effectively encourages you to spend your money on wages rather than big fees, although while I can see the logic in this, I'm not going to deliberately spend too much on wages either just to try and justify this rule. You will also find that this rule will meet quite the stumbling block at Bochum right from the off. 2. Don’t needlessly splash out on new players or sell old ones when you take over a club – the New Manager Syndrome (pp. 21-22) I absolutely categorically agree with this and think it's a common error that loads of people will make. Don't abandon what's already there just for the sake of laying down a marker, although Pep might disagree with me on this one. 3. Don’t buy players who impressed at international tournaments: they’re likely to be overvalued and past performance is no indication of future performance, especially when they’re playing with a different team (pp. 22-24) – there are different incentives and a different tactical set-up at tournaments, and it’s a super small sample size. This is again, spot on, and I happened to think that there was a classic example of this involving my own club recently, none other than Harry Maguire. Maguire is a good player, but the fees that were being talked about for him were utter, utter lunacy and I think given Leicester brought in two promising players in his position in the summer, there was a good case to sell. Moneyball would dictate that Maguire was sold and Soyuncu would replace him - there's every chance Soyuncu will prove to be as good, while we have bagged tens of millions in the process that will enable us to strengthen elsewhere, although with Bochum's stature, this is unlikely to be something I'll encounter early doors. 4. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil, and England (pp. 24-25) Once again, I agree with this. That isn't to say that I'd never sign players of these three nationalities, but there's definitely a case for all three having a premium that isn't really justified, English in-particular I'm afraid. 5. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old, goalkeepers aside (p. 29) This again is common sense to me. Sell players when they're about to decline in both ability and value. 6. Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one (pp. 43-44) This one's a bit easy to get around on Football Manager really because there simply isn't anywhere near enough variation in the reports you'll get from scouts. I can get a scout with good judgement against one with poor and they'll produce me the exact same report. Common sense dictates you get good scouts and you go off their reports. Agree with the principle though. 7. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoids the problems with not developing properly, and means previous statistics have greater value (pp. 45-47) This one I found interesting. The book uses Lyon as the example to follow and they had this policy of signing players aged 21-24 rather than much younger because there isn't enough of a sample size to go off. There is the odd exception to the rule, of course, and you aren't limited to this age bracket but they're generally the best value to buy. I wouldn't shun say, a free agent 28 year old who will improve my team, nor would I refuse to sign an 18 year old wonderkid (although be wary about paying loads), but following this guideline does make sense to me. 8. Centre-forwards cost more than they should (p. 47) This I found again to be interesting. The majority of big money flops, historically, have been strikers and that's not a co-incidence. While obviously finishing and scoring does matter, I do believe that in clever systems you can get high goal totals from strikers that aren't particularly good - the quality of chances created for said striker leads to him scoring a lot more than his natural ability would dictate and yet because he's the one on the scoresheet, he's the one going for the bigger money, although I do think nowadays this has changed ever so slightly especially when you look at examples like Walker and Mendy, and how much they went for. Basically, don't chuck all your money away on a striker. 9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold (pp. 48-49) This is the most controversial and I did happen to agree with @...Dan's point to an extent, but as previously stated I think you can counter that argument by saying this... so, your best player is worth £6million and you get an offer of £10million for them, what have you actually lost? Are they truly irreplaceable if they're worth just £6million? Certainly not in my eyes with £10million in the bank and a strict high demand on the performance of your scouting team. I do think there's the odd bit of deviation allowed if say, you're being offered £1.5million for your £1.3million valued striker on deadline day, also I believe you shouldn't just instantly take an offer because you can always get more money if you negotiate - ALWAYS. You'll find a situation where I had to make a tough decision but playing by the rules, I did it. 10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players (pp. 49-51) This again just feels like common sense. Chelsea could learn a lot from this - don't fill your squad with average, expensive players as back-up when you've got a fantastic youth network. This is tough to properly implement and I've done it with varying success, and in the thread I linked, this was the significant one that they fell down on, although in the grand scheme of things it's not actually hugely relevant, sadly. Current Situation I can't provide an individual dossier on the whole squad like Claude Puel was supposedly able to in his interview that bagged him the Leicester job. I can tell you however that this is a relatively good side for the 2.Bundesliga and that we should be aiming to try and get promoted, although I appreciate it's not as straight forward as that. I do think we're lacking in a couple of areas - namely attack where there is very little beyond my talisman Dimitris Diamantakos. The midfield is OK without having loads about it. The full backs are very steady, centre halves we're definitely lacking in and I'm going to try and get one signed before the season kicks off, but we're next to penniless in transfer budget and we do have a centre half Patrick Fabian returning from injury soon, so we're likely going to have to make do. I think it's going to take time for anything I implement to really kick in, and that's for me one of Moneyball's biggest flaws - you do sort of have to speculate to accumulate, and without a bit of money to start with you're not going to be able to buy anything decent. It's not a particularly young squad either, and there is a HUGE flaw in this squad. That flaw is Sidney Sam. He is my best player. He's a right winger, capped by Germany, once of Schalke aged 29, he has very high stats for finishing, pace and long shots. Why is this man a problem? Well, he's on £66,000 a week, that's why. The next highest earner is on £10,000 a week for some context. I have absolutely no idea how this was allowed to happen, although my suspicion is it's a fault with the edit as he was probably on that kind of wage at Schalke and they just haven't updated it. Still, I'm stuck with that for three years sadly. He will play a part here, but I do want him gone on those wages, that's going to seriously handicap me for a while. I've gone on enough now. The next update will be season one.
  4. I'd counter that by saying that if you're getting an offer above their value, then are they really that good? Are they really irreplaceable? I've always taken the attitude that very few players are truly irreplaceable. I do require a very strong scouting network though and I'm very picky on it.
  5. Looks set to leave in January according to the Portuguese press. Rumour he's going to Sporting on loan which I'm totally against, they've had our pants down enough times. I feel for him but he hasn't performed when given chances. He's looked a bit off the pace, too much of a passenger, too prone to giving the ball away cheaply. This signing really has been nothing short of a complete disaster. Given the nonsense that lead to him missing 4 months of his career at no fault of his own I'd have to say it's been probably the worst signing I can remember. I wish him the best in future but this will be looked back on as a howler from us unfortunately.
  6. This is merely planting the seed. I will type this all up for you at some point. The concept of moneyball interests me a lot and I tried it with Shrewsbury, with some moderate success but I've decided to try it with a slightly bigger club. This thread is a fantastic read though and what kind of inspired the whole save; https://thesetpieces.com/features/football-manager-meets-moneyball-pt-1/ Sadly, FM19 just isn't doing anything for me, it's all a bit much for me now. I probably should've tried FM19 touch and I probably will if I get bored of this save, but I'd already gotten it going and going well, so maybe next time. I just feel like I don't really have that much control now and that it's too easy for me to fuck things up and feel like "well what the hell was I meant to do about that", and on the flip side, I feel like the success may not be that great a deal down to me either should I have any. I am three seasons into this save already. No spoilers, but it's another goodun so far and I feel like this one could go on for a while. I do recommend that link, it's a cracking read, really drills into your head the whole concept. Performance summary:
  7. I don't even know what I'd have given there. There's a case for a red and there's a case for it not even being a foul. Yellow probably the fair medium.
  8. Crystal Palace 1-1 Leicester Fulham 1-1 West Ham Huddersfield 1-1 Newcastle Man City 3-1 Everton Tottenham 3-0 Burnley Watford 1-0 Cardiff Wolves 2-2 Bournemouth Brighton 0-2 Chelsea Liverpool 1-0 Man Utd Southampton 1-2 Arsenal @Stan
  9. I'm amazed I was the only one to have that
  10. Dan

    Roughest Place You've Been?

    I don't think anywhere I've been is really that bad in all honesty. Some parts of Glasgow maybe but that's not really that bad compared to what is out there. Biggest dump in the UK I reckon is either Blackpool or Newport.
  11. The minute I call a team decent they immediately go to bits.
  12. That is the most spectacular collapse isn't it. Beyond belief
  13. Everton definitely have the home crowd that most comes across like they'd rather be somewhere else.
  14. This is a truly embarrassing performance from the officials, again.
  15. Awful officiating again. Lovely finish that though. You would expect him to score really but it's one of those where he couldn't have taken it any better. I've been impressed with him so far. Not going to say he's repaid the fee yet like some will be desperate to but he's looked like he could.