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Everything posted by Dan

  1. I think you'd have to be mad to back in this market at that price - not so much this weekend but this market is particularly reactive. Say Chelsea had a game at half 12 and they lost it, Heckingbottom would shoot back up to probably 3/1 without them even playing.
  2. I agree with the Cooper shout, I don't think he should be sacked at all for what it's worth but I think Marinakis wants to aim higher in his eyes. Not a bad dark horse pick.
  3. WEEK 8 - UPTURN AND THE BIGGEST WIN YET We're back in the green this week but it's mainly thanks to one particular member which shall be covered later. The hint is it isn't me. We have a new leader this week in the form of @Machado who seems to favour calculated safe picks. Sporting took their time to bag in their trip to Austria but did end up scoring twice in a late turnaround win. Bayern hit twice in the space of four minutes to pay out the original leg of the bet, to take home a £7.64 profit and put himself back in the green. A congratulations must go to @CaaC (John) for this weeks effort though. He's gone a little more conservative in recent weeks rather than picking audatious upset scorelines and instead just picking an underdog to go with a favourite. I'll mention again that you get one bet a week, one £10 bet and you use it on one or two selections, rather than two £5 bets - luckily there's not yet been any issue as you've either won on both or lost on both, but this week for example your two selections will be put into a £10 double rather than two sets of £5. This may cost you on another week, however this week Everton's win at Brentford contributed to the season's biggest win yet, and the same result was the single biggest odds winner to pay out this season as they turned in a surprise 1-3 victory. Hibs made no mistake in their leg of the bet either, beating St Johnstone 2-0 at home. Should you have done two £5 bets on these outcomes, you would be £19.40 up rather than the £57.12 you are! @Stan had built up a bit of profit meaning that he stays in the green despite falling to a second straight loss this weekend. Interested to hear the rationale behind the games you're going for on these - are they just random or is there a reason those particular fixtures were singled out? I do find it quite peculiar that a game that ended 6-2 didn't pay out here as that just hints chaos to me, but we only had the one card in this game, which surprises me. @Storts hasn't predicted for a while but retains a top half spot. @Pyfish is let down by Anthony Gordon failing to get a card at the San Siro, although Luton did score a goal for a selection winner, albeit in quite dubious circumstances. @Lucas can consider himself unlucky to lose this week. Tonali picking up an impressive 4 fouls on his return home, Guimaraes 1 but Theo Hernandez failing to commit any - probably helped by how dominant Milan were during most of the game. @RandoEFC's peculiar asian handicap bet has resulted in the first breakeven of the season as both teams ended up with single goal victories - with Real Madrid's coming in injury time and Bayern - Man Utd's back and forth resulting in a 4-3, so it can't be classed as a winner, but a good example of the value of asian handicaps I suppose and how it's a good way to hedge a bet - I say as somebody who was done by Barcelona at the weekend failing to win their game by over a goal. @...Dan's trip to France doesn't pay off as Pau ended up losing 0-3 to Annecy, although St Etienne did win their game so he gets that selection right at least. And then we move to me. Eight bets. Eight losses. This one is probably the worst yet. Absolute abject toss in every way imaginable. Two comfortable favourites both fail to land either leg of the bet, both suffering shock defeats. Aston Villa's performance was abysmal, I didn't think they would fall into the same pitfall that we did two years ago yet here we are. Brighton really surprised me though, I thought they would take AEK to pieces and they've not only failed to hit 3 goals, but they've lost the game and are in a pretty precarious position in the group now. I don't think many would believe me if I told them I won around £400 this weekend on separate accumulators, but I'm definitely picking the wrong stuff to throw onto here. I however retain faith that this is going to turn around, but simply funny to lose eight straight. It's really, really bad. Appalling. Overall, it's actually the second best week yet though. WEEK 8 STATS Winning bets: 2/8 (25%) Winning selections: 7/13* (53.8%) Weekly forum position: +£14.76 *Includes Asian Handicap 'push' x2 - not included as winner or loser OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 12/56 (21.43%) Winning selections: 44/107 (41.1%) Total forum position: -£195.82
  4. We'll lose but will be an interesting marker against how we did when facing Liverpool in pre-season. This is a bit of a free hit for me. Given we're in the Championship I don't think this competition can be a priority and I'd probably sooner be dealt this in round 3 than in the quarter finals. I predict we give a decent account of ourselves but lose 3-1 or something like that.
  5. Chelsea are genuinely fortunate that this is a particularly weak year at the bottom of the table. I'm not quite willing to say Burnley are down yet but the other two I give virtually no chance of survival. If you had a semi competent trio come up this year they would be in genuine danger of the drop, which people will baulk at but this is beyond a bad run - they have I think 30 points in their last 35 games. This isn't bad form, this is being shit. They are genuinely performing at the level of an Everton / Wolves.
  6. I've been doing it as a £10 bet on either a single or a double - however these have both won so it's gonna be as a £10 double. A very good win as well actually. Going to be £70ish off the top of my head. Shoots you up the table.
  7. I think 1-0 massively flattered Bristol City. We were quite comfortably better again. 9 wins in 10 in all competitions. You can't knock it given the level of overhaul. Maresca doing a really good job.
  8. I know he hasn't really caught the eye outside of Leicester but Pearson will get a great reception tomorrow, and while I don't want the entire game to be about that, this is a bit different. He's not managed away here since 2010. It'll feel weird actually competing against him - our paths haven't crossed many times at all. Partly because of the heights we've hit, but those heights he played a huge part in laying the foundations. I think he's quite popular at Bristol City for these reasons as well. His progress is slow, but it's real. Again - you would have to fancy us as favourites but there'll be games we drop points, and there'd be something very typical football about it being to Pearson at home. No mercy though - win needed.
  9. Far too good for this league. Really shrewd from us because we've caught a player simply well above this level while he was at his lowest ebb. He's a top half PL player for me.
  10. I did laugh to myself when I saw Preston's next game is Rotherham too. I'm of this view as well. I think they've done very well but they've had very kind fixtures and they seem to be taking every chance they get. I think they've given themselves a shot of a top 6 spot, but I'd be amazed if they finished in the top 2. My favourite four teams in this league are Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds and Sunderland. I think Leeds are getting there. Sunderland are getting the results now and I'm a fan of the way they've run themselves. Ipswich, I know they were largely tipped to do well but 6 wins in 7 as a newly promoted side is a great effort. I think they can last the way. Maresca's doing really well so far. His system clearly works. We weren't blowing teams away early doors but we've picked up a bit in the last couple of games. Basically Leicester's ceiling was extremely high this season and despite not even being at our best we've won 6 in 7, 8 in 9 in all competitions (including 6/6 away which is really impressive at any level). I'm of the same view as you - we could completely run away with it. But I do expect there to be the odd bump in the road too - I'd not be one bit surprised if we dropped points tomorrow.
  11. Yeah this is the thing - I think we had a heavy advantage over the others and quite frankly, we had a squad in the Premier League that shouldn't have been in the discussion to drop let alone actually seen it through. We've appointed evidently a good manager and we've bought pretty well too. There'll be bumps in the road but we've so far lived up to expectation. It's pretty mad that a team is 3rd with 18 points at this stage as well - though I cannot see Preston keeping this up. I think Ipswich can see this through and get a top 6 finish but maybe not promoted. Preston I think finish about 8th. I think Leeds will go up and I'm quite big on Sunderland as well - and they're showing some very promising signs at last.
  12. How is it even possible to be this unlucky
  13. I'm gonna do that league I think - used to have a weird fascination with it when I was younger.
  14. This according to WhoScored has lost; https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1775679/LiveStatistics/Europe-Champions-League-2023-2024-AC-Milan-Newcastle Tonali 4 Guimaraes 1 Hernandez 0
  15. It's hard to not come across very cocky but I do think we are going to win the league quite comfortably.
  16. Thought Newcastle were pretty bad but in a very new and tough environment that's a good result - I think I'd about give them the edge to go through in 2nd. I expect Mbappe to carry PSG through this quite comfortably and Dortmund just look miles off it to me. The weakest of the four.
  17. I went to Bochum v Frankfurt at the weekend. Thought Bochum edged what was a pretty fun game, lots of energy and both teams were going for it but it did lack quality. I was quite surprised at how bad Frankfurt were. I know they have lost players but it's hard to believe that's a side who won the Europa League, and beat Barcelona over two legs less than 18 months ago.
  18. I see Russell Martin lost again. With bottom of the table Middlesbrough away this weekend I'm starting to wonder if he's at genuine risk of losing his job soon - if they lose that he'd have to be under pressure.
  19. Norwich away for us tomorrow night. Can only apologise to Stan and the rest of our fans as I'm actually going to this one whilst I missed Southampton due to being in Germany, so now we've got the goodun out of the way (which tempted a mate of mine to buy a ticket for Wednesday) I've no doubt we'll kiss of death it and lose at Norwich. I'll be honest I still find it quite hard to adjust to seeing Southampton and Norwich away as 'hard' fixtures - and especially given how the first went but in the context of everything a point wouldn't kill us. I think we're totally capable of winning this though. Norwich will probably be in two minds on how to set up as Southampton played right into our hands, and revealed that we do still have that battering in us when we're presented with the circumstances - I mean we even scored four, four times last season. But then the flip side is we haven't looked hugely convincing against the 'lesser' sides who have sat back. Wagner's inclination will be to press but that may be a problem for them as Maresca's philosophy seems very much of the De Zerbi ilk - to bait a press and then play around it, and we're getting better at it. I'm gonna be positive fuck it. 1-2 to us.
  20. I wonder if you're a bit of a dark horse - 9th in the table with the fixtures you've had is really quite impressive.
  21. I happened to look at this yesterday about Gordon and I had him to be booked in their game against Liverpool. It turns out that's the only game this season he hasn't been booked in. That's a good price in a game like that.
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