Dan

This time of the season brings around one of my favourite markets and it's the second half goals market. I think this is simply overpriced as they tend to price this as 2/1 for the 1st half and evens for the 2nd half. Well this is very situation driven - Huddersfield v Birmingham given the fact both sides need to win I think is almost certainly going to be cagey in the first half and then chaotic in the second. I think there's a very decent chance it's goalless at half time but hardly any chance it ends that way. Not a guaranteed winner, but I'd say that would play out more than 50% of the time, making 2.05 good value. Sassuolo is a bit of a long shot but I need them at this point. Fiorentina will be throwing everything at their European semi final and will likely rest players for this game, while Sassuolo need a win in the fight against relegation. I expect that price to come down a bit before it starts.

WEEKS 36, 37 & 38 Been really busy lately so not had loads of chance to do these, appreciate its made it all a bit crapper though as you can tell by the lack of uptake in week 37. I've posted another 3 losses which is no surprise, as has @Stan who has joined me in the tirade of cynicism to try and get Leicester over the line, which seems to have actually done the trick. Kudos to both @RandoEFC & @CaaC (John) who profited during this period and real props to Rando for the picks on week 38 which are frankly hilarious. But the obvious winner, and very likely title winner now is @Lucas who posts two big wins and have put him over £100 clear at the top of the league. Me, @Machado, @Storts, @...Dan and @CaaC (John) all have our £25 bet to use. There are six weeks left so it isn't over yet. Some of us are looking great. Lucas is the first player who guarantees to finish in profit this season given he has no £25 left. @Pyfish is very close as well. Some of us need a bit more to go our way, and some of us who will go unnamed need frankly a miracle, so we, all one of us, are entering silly long shot stage.

Ipswich will be wanting a Coventry win tonight and then hope that Coventry drop points at the weekend - meaning that they would face both Hull and Coventry away in essentially dead rubbers. I'd love to see the athletic or somebody do a proper study into 'on the beach' and 'dead rubber' statistics. I'm a bit of a football gambler and I've been wondering if there's actually a bit of an edge in backing those sorts of teams. For example Cardiff at the weekend were 9/1 to beat Southampton at home. We all fancied a Southampton win, but is that price not massively juiced up beyond reality? I think in reality they should've never been 'that' big. I'm buzzing for Preston away on Monday. Funny sport isn't it football. The Millwall and Plymouth week was such a dire pair of showings from us entirely indicative of the sorts of end of season collapses we've suffered in recent years almost habitually at this point. Leeds & Ipswich let us off those results entirely. We got a bit lucky against West Brom but last night was just fantastic - it's added some glory to proceedings again where it felt before almost a bit embarrassing. We've absolutely belted Southampton home and away this season. I do find it interesting how we 'still' seem to be a better team without the ball when we play on the break. That's actually quite encouraging for me ahead of next season where we would have a lot less of the ball. Southampton set up uniquely badly against us in both games which once again vindicates my belief that Martin is a bit of a cretin. I know it's not really his mantra to stifle teams but if they went up under him I could see them getting some absolute spitroastings next season. I mean I can of us, let alone them. *if* we are promoted of course. I'm about 95% sure we're up now but I do wonder if people will get the jitters again should Leeds & Ipswich both win at the weekend. Preston's setup will be the polar opposite to Southampton. No team played further into our hands this season than them. Basically what I'm saying is Preston beating us 1-0 wouldn't flabbergast me.

I'm not knocking Chelsea for doing this if that is the case, but again - just what is the point if you can bypass it with this sort of nonsense. Boring that yet another topic has become about this but it's the inescapable bleak reality of this situation. I'm in a tough position on Leicester. I want to hold those responsible accountable for their utterly dreadful and irresponsible dealings, but I also think they're operating within utterly farcical parameters - particularly given the Chelsea case.

If it's true that Chelsea aren't going to be done because of selling hotels to themselves or whatnot then they need to abolish the rules and reinstate all the docked points immediately. But that's one of those things that's so stupid I wonder if I've just fallen for some bait on Twitter.

Yeah if we can't go up from here it's time to pack it up and call it a day. I think we could quite likely lose the last two and still go up from here tbh.

Fatawu's the best prospect we've had in a long time. Lots of talk from Sporting fans that they've made a fuckup on the scale of Palhinha / Raphinha by letting him come to us. He's had basically everything but the goals this season, if they've arrived too then happy days. I've no idea what sort of spend we're looking at next season but even despite our situation I'm good with us paying the money for him because he's worth far more.

Fucking get in there. What a great night that was.

Feel this could backfire on me but sod it PSG.

It's the one particular point about points deductions and the timing. You couldn't have had a better year to have it - this is pretty much certainly the worst bottom three there's ever been and like I say, if we get one next season (which I'm pretty sure we are going to) then I highly doubt we're going to have this luxury. It'd probably be in our interests for Ipswich and Norwich to come up with us.

Been thinking a bit about this Southampton game and have come to the conclusion that we should absolutely go for the win - and I don't mean in that you wouldn't want to do that every game anyway, but to me the drawback of losing rather than drawing isn't actually all that great. We need 6 points from 3 games to guarantee promotion. A draw would mean we could still need to beat Preston and Blackburn to get promoted, so there is potentially nothing in a draw for us. Given a draw kills Southampton's admittedly tiny automatic chances too I'd say late goals are likely. I think we will get promoted but I am totally braced for a scenario where we go to Preston in 3rd place and freeze in the face of another limited, savvy team - a draw against Southampton does not prevent this situation either. If we beat Southampton we are up barring an absolute catastrophe I think. We really are due to turn up on one of these pressure nights. I'm fed up of us floundering under every one of them. It's been years. The good thing is that Martin's style isn't really about frustrating. I expect a pretty entertaining game, could be pretty chaotic in all honesty if the first meeting is anything to go by. I think that will probably suit our crowd, who've proven this season they really don't react whatsoever to patient football but absolutely will if there's a bit of chaos.

Luton fan I work with has said to me for years if they ever made it to the Premier League they would treat it as a cash cow to get themselves in order, to sort out a new stadium etc... and that they would not make any serious fist of survival. To have that go up alongside a calamity Sheffield United and a Burnley side who've badly underperformed. Forest and Everton are lucky their deductions have come this season. I expect us to hit one next year and we're not getting this sort of luxury. I do think Luton will be back and they've been good value for the league, they're a genuinely fun team. Probably the nearest thing to Holloway's Blackpool. I just hope they have a slightly better legacy - I think they will though. They haven't been promoted four times in ten years by being daft. Got a lot of time for Luton.

I'm probably far more resigned to Forest's survival than I should be given the points difference. Luton's games really aren't that bad. But I just have no faith in them to deliver and Forest have already developed the Everton syndrome of always getting the result when they need it most. I bet Forest fudge both of those away games then go and beat Chelsea or some other bullshit.

Don't like the fact Leeds are back in the goals. That's the real confidence booster after a few games of bluntness in front of goal. Middlesbrough absolutely woeful defensively. A bad result for us but will at least feel a bit more rewarding to do it now. Enormous game tomorrow night.

I did think by now there would be more. Using the kids shirts again I'm surprised how few I see. I've no idea how PSG shirts got so popular amongst kids. This has been going on pre Messi as well.