Dan

No big description or whatnot from me this week. I'm going for Cape Verde to beat Mauritania and Senegal to beat Ivory Coast. My gut tells me.

Honestly why do we bother? I of course didn't, and instead had the same selection in a treble with Bristol Rovers v Oxford and Lausanne Ouchy v Winterthur - both of those of course sail home.

I think the truth is everyone's so scared because they know deep down we're run by idiots. There are clubs who could've utilised selling him (such as Brighton actually) and strengthened the rest of the team with the money. We will dally about and half-arse it like always. The fact a club as savvy as Brighton think they can get us here is a red flag to me. We're more in the shit financially than I realised. I'm seeing some real turbulence coming with us. As much as I dislike Rodgers' handling of last season, and how I think his abysmal recruitment played a massive part in it, he had a point about these clowns. It appears this month that Maresca's been given false pretences, the same poor communication etc... that Rodgers alluded to. I didn't suddenly think this club was a well-oiled machine again just because we're beating a load of sides we have ten times the budget of.

We can't can we?

I'm very tempted to take Senegal to beat Ivory Coast I have to say. 7/5 feels ridiculously big for an absolute shitshow against probably the strongest team in the competition.

There's no way this doesn't end 1-0 now.

I'm looking at that exact same game - I've been betting BTTS according to expected goals for a while, and Ternana have regularly flagged up for me. The best type of team for it frankly as they're a regular BTTS payout in a league with a reputation for low scoring. Do you follow Mark O'Haire by any chance? He's gone for this game this weekend too and I agreed 100% with his assessment that if you had those stats in the Eredivisie or Bundesliga that game would be about 1.44 for a BTTS payout, yet it's about 1.75 and I can only conclude it's due to it being Serie B.

I've been trying to avoid having in-plays because I found myself quite often doing things like backing a team to have another corner with 80 on the clock when attacking and they inevitably scored and stopped putting the pressure on but I do think every now and then you get some good opportunities for it like that too. I don't tend to use Sky as much but they've always had the best variety of bet builders and long shots etc... tend to find for match odds they're pretty bad though. Have you tried this acca freeze? I keep meaning to do it, I keep seeing people freezing a team at stupid prices and boosting an acca to a ridiculous price. Only a matter of time before they tone that down I think. That sounds like a pretty good system to be honest and I'd imagine over the long run that is likely to pay out, which once again brings me back to my point that this thread is probably a quite bad reflection of the bigger picture because you're only doing two selections and if you do two they're accumulated anyway, which I'm finding is a bit of a problem (my overall profit this season is lower than if I'd just done £10 on a single selection of everything I'd had). I mean it's a bit of fun ultimately but I remember years ago when I ran it I was almost hoping for good methods etc... to come out of it. I think what you point out at the end is half the issue as well. If you start consistently beating or outthinking them they will just ban you. I know a couple of methods on how you can pretty much guarantee a win over time but I've not put it into enough practice. Basically finding odds above what an exchange (real odds) will offer, although quite how you consistently find those without software I'm not really sure. My sisters ex boyfriend told me he used to have some bit of software that would not only find the bets like this but actually place it for him as well

I knew I forgot to include something in the round up and it was a reminder that you can either stick with these or go for something new, luckily you remembered this time

Read earlier you're signing Ethan Horvath from Forest. With my Leicester hat on I'm annoyed we haven't tried to sell you Iversen earlier in the window. These are the little things we aren't doing that add up over time.

WEEK 25 - ESSENTIALLY BREAKEVEN WEEK 25 STATS Winning bets: 2/6 Winning selections: 6/12 Weekly forum position: -£1.82 (Ranked 10/25) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 44/171 Winning selections: 149/322 Total forum position: -£304.91 The latest instalment arrives. A fair bit of change in the league table and a pretty ordinary week on the whole. The week produced two winners. The first is @Stan who moves back up into 4th courtesy of two second half turnaround victories. Always what I find to be the perk of backing a team to win and over X goals is you're less pissed off with the inevitable notification to find they've gone 1-0 down. Shrewsbury took a shock lead at Peterborough before half time, but there was no surprise in the turnaround and it ended 2-1. Almeria went one better, taking a shock 0-2 lead at the Bernabeu before the inevitable crumbling. It would've been quite something to see Almeria stunt another of the La Liga runaway teams but it appears that's only reserved for my picks. That's Stan's third straight win, and winning bang on £25 means he's essentially won back his bonus stake. The other winner was @RandoEFC who finally pays off with the corners. This absolutely sailed in to be honest, with Bristol City v Watford producing 15 between them, miles over the 9 required. The Ulm v Unterhaching game went similarly with the bet all but in by half time, as there were 14 corners in total, of which Ulm took 8 of them. I went ambitious this week and didn't really get anywhere near a winner. It was always risky picking a Palace side in pretty dire straits, missing Olise to go to the side with the least number of chances created against them and score, but the odds were backable for me given the data. Toney had his moment, it just happened to be a free-kick instead of a penalty this time. I can't really whinge this time. Who probably can whinge however is @Lucas. It amazes me some of the odds you get on Juventus wins. Always worth a go. But for Bayern to turn that result in at home to a team with no away wins all season is remarkably unlucky timing. He does however retain his place at the top of the table as @Pyfish double blanks in a late pick. No Cunha goal, no Leicester win. Not his week. @CaaC (John) was the other predictor. His went according to the odds. The comfortable favourites of Arsenal winning heavily. The outsiders of Nottingham Forest losing, dropping him to a season low position of 8th following five straight losses. On we go.

I think sadly that is just very unlucky. I came out on the right side of this a few weeks back - I had AZ Alkmaar to beat NEC Nijmegen in a four fold acca, NEC 1-2 up in injury time and Bas Dost collapses, game is postponed, bet is void and the other three teams all won.

The great fightback of Vitoria de Setubal part 4 We've arrived in the big time. The bright lights of the Dragao and Estadio da Luz finally await us. But the truth about Portuguese football is bar the top teams, it really is all a much of a muchness. I would not be exaggerating to claim that the gap between a midtable top tier team, such as say, Moreirense, and Benfica, is greater than the gap between Moreirense and a team in the third tier. The disparity of the teams in this country is on a level that I think only maybe Scotland can rival. This, in theory, should make survival achievable, even if it is going to be tough. We are rank outsiders. The bookies think Nacional, and particularly relative moneybags Estrela Amadora have the edge over us. That's fair enough. We conquered them last time. We can do it again. We receive another paltry budget. I'm under no illusions that this club is a wealthy one, but to say we've taken in a couple of million for players I hoped for a little more than £200k. We're going to have to play this cleverly, with frees and loans. The standout signings on that list are Alex Valera (striker), Tomas Silva (right back / centre midfield) and Sinica Sanicanin (centre back), all pretty comfortable top flight level players. The pick of the bunch for sure though had to be Pau Prim, recently released by Barcelona, a product of La Masia - quite frankly, this kid is Busquets-lite. He could've easily gotten a deal at a La Liga club and I was surprised he even spoke to us, let alone joined. The January business you may happen to notice produces a bit of a twist for us. We bring in Iceland international Mikael Egil Ellertson (midfielder) but make our first very substantial sale of the save, being forced into the sale of star winger Pedro Santos. He developed enormously and for a player I paid a mere £45k for in the third tier, it's a massive win for the club. But I see the first signs of trouble arriving as the board seem hell-bent on denying me any of the proceeds. The fact I've replaced him with £6k Adam Arvelo speaks volumes. We make the most extraordinary entry into the league beyond my wildest expectations, by going away to Braga and beating them 0-6. On further investigation it appears Braga had a malfunction and seemed to think this was a friendly of some sorts. They named a reserve team, resting their most 9 valuable players and starting two 16 year olds in defence. I still can't really explain why it happened, but we will take that all day. We follow this up with much scrappier home wins over Boavista and Farense before losing at Famalicao, but then beating Chaves 1-0 and Casa Pia 0-4. I'm not going to beat around the bush. This team isn't going to be relegated. .We slow down after the Casa Pia win and go winless in 7 league games before beating surprise strugglers Alverca (another tinpot club who've been bankrolled to a top half wage budget). We flunk both of the big trips pretty spectacularly. By this point, we're not going to be relegated, and we're very unlikely to make Europe. So I want to actually aim for a cup run. January starts pretty controversially. We produce our biggest scalp of the save so far, beating Sporting Lisbon 1-0 at home, who's manager Ruben Amorim leaves them the day after for Manchester United, and guess who they want in to replace him? I don't tend to leave teams in saves but the mix of a tempting big club and the fact my board had just given me a few buttons of the lofty Pedro Santos transfer fee made me take the interview, hoping that I would at least be able to force an argument with my board. As it happened I got neither the job or the money, they much preferred the option of Famalicao's manager, who were sitting below us in the table despite being expected to finish 6th. The Santos loss hit us pretty hard. Arvelo did his best, but he is a second tier at best player in the current climate and the fact I've had to try an rely on him is laughable in itself. We dropped off quite a bit and didn't seem to have that same magic on the break anymore, which was understandable. The season petered out to midtable in the end, and Braga got their revenge by ruining my cup run in the quarters, but it was worth remembering how far we had actually come to get to this position in the first place. Given I wanted just survival, it was quite remarkable that we were still looking at an outsider European spot late on in the season. The Santos sale scuppered our unlikely European bid but the fact we were in one in the first place was beyond my expecations. I want to think now though that we've made a relatively game-changing sale in Santos, so we should going forward actually be able to spend money. I sit there expectant of next seasons budget. I want some room. The ease which the likes of Queiros, Habraao, Yriarte (this seasons surprise package), Santos, Matos (our first academy product to break through) and most impressively of all, Graca stepped up to this level really was impressive. Paraskeva got a 6 month injury after a bright start and was pretty much ended by Krstic coming in and doing little wrong, and he will depart in the summer back for his home country of Cyprus. Graca likewise will depart for newly promoted Penafiel. Valera did a very steady job. Santos was obviously great but has now gone. We just need to try and replace his impact. For all I think we're working above our real ability, I'm probably guilty of underplaying the quality of some of the players in my team. I would say the likes of Ellertson and Pau Prim are both good enough for somebody like Guimaraes. We've a mix of quality players and functional reliable heads. Now we have to crack on, and hope that the board remember their pin number.

The great fightback of Vitoria de Setubal part 3 So now we enter the second tier. I think this is the first for two things of this save. It's the first time we play in a fairly conventional league system, with a pretty straight forward promotion and relegation system that mirrors that of the Bundesliga. No league split. 18 teams, 34 games, 2 or 3 up, 2 or 3 down. Conventional stuff by this country's standards. The other first however I would argue is that we face genuine adversity. You have to remember that Setubal being in the 4th tier was a travesty and that we had the resources of a club far superior to it. It was a rare case of being expected to go up two seasons running. This is a real test for what this team truly has about it. Given I set out a pretty ambitious five year plan to get to the top tier, that gives me two years in this league to get out of it. I think I can do that. We have the 7th biggest wage bill in the second tier immediately and, as ever, I make a big rehash of my squad. Isnaba Graca (striker) and Joao Queiros (centre half being converted to inverted full back) made their moves here permanent. Vasco Lopes (winger / mezzalla) was a coup on a free transfer. Talaia, Gerard and Olofsson were all comfortable players for this level and the rest were largely squad pad outs. We had a glimpse into the future in January as two of my key wingers left and we were given very little of the money to replace them with, but I did manage to get winger Eduardo Fernandes on loan. Boro Krstic (Goalkeeper) is the first foreign gem signing of the save, a superb find from the scouts, 18 years old and probably about at Paraskeva's level already. We make a very bright start and win our opening two games, then draw the next two before losing 0-4 to Benfica B for our first home loss in over a year. The reaction from this is to produce a 9 game winning run which was ended by a 5-5 () draw with Feirense. We're knocked out of the cup by top tier Moreirense for the second season in four years. By this point it was pretty clear that we were emerging as contenders to pull off three straight promotions. We sat on top of the table but had Nacional and Estrela Amadora breathing down our necks. We would eventually lose a crucial game in Madeira to Nacional in January to end our long unbeaten run, but once again we bounce back, although not after another loss to Benfica B. Our system is clearly extremely effective, with players we've had since the fourth tier such as Panutche Camara, Pedro Graca and Diogo Gomes still continuing to offer important service to my team. After a pretty drawn out battle with Nacional and Estrela Amadora, we are promoted with a 4-1 win over Tondela on the penultimate weekend, and are crowned champions after a 2-0 victory on the final day over Leixoes. We have done it. Three straight promotions. The five year job done in four. The efficiency of my 4-3-3 system was proven by how little our performance dropped off despite a big loss in Henrique Pereira (who played precisely zero minutes at Estoril) and Goncalo Martins. Others simply stepped up to the plate. We don't have a powerful squad, but we have a functional and effective one. A little bit of everything in the side really. Just how I like it. A number of names saving their places upon stepping up from the third tier (Habraao, Queiros, Santos) and some even from the fourth tier (Paraskeva, Camara, Pedro Graca). Joao Queiros took home a surprise POTS award and but I can see why - remarkable consistency for a player who has had his position totally converted, barely has a bad game, and even chipped in with some important goals to boot. Matias Hernandez was excellent on loan and will be missed. None of the loanees will be sticking around for next season, but that's OK. We will dust off, and replenish. Like we always do. The aim in my first season up is very simple - survival.

"You win some, you lose some" doesn't just apply to when you lose as far as I'm concerned

I can't complain. I put £20 on Real Madrid to win at half time. You just knew they would. For a team on so few points Almeria have put in two seriously good efforts against the top two.

Forest really are horrid. Chip on their shoulder from day one since they've entered the PL (and before I can vouch). Huge victim complex. Nothing sums them up more than the whingefest they produced earlier over that Brentford 3rd goal that wasn't even remotely contentious. Awful club. Hopefully it burns slowly.

I'm not gonna claim bad luck on that one to be honest. That was risky and Palace really are just a bit rubbish.

Or Palace to win 0-4.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace - Both teams to score @ 11/8 (2.37) - This is a quite peculiar pick because I think pretty much everyone's instinct for this game would be Arsenal to win to nil. Arsenal's defence bar the last few games has been pretty sturdy while Palace are pretty dour. But to be fair the stats actually back this selection up quite a bit and the price is really generous. Palace have scored in 9 out of 10 away games. Arsenal have scored in 9 out of 10 home games. I know Palace are missing Olise and Ayew, but I still think the odds are simply a bit too big here to ignore them. Brentford v Nottingham Forest - Brentford to score a penalty @ 4/1 (5.00) - This is a lot more about intuition than any statistical data, but I feel the Toney return is totally set up for him to score, and even more so I can picture him scoring a penalty too. Forest also have a few out and I'd probably back Brentford to win the game anyway. I need to be going a bit bigger at this point. £10 returns £118.75.

I ultimately think if you're winning fairly consistently then it's fine and I think when betting is so based on probability, it is actually quite hard to pick two to win each week. If I can be arsed I might make one, but I'd be intrigued to see the league table if you took every selection made as a £5 single rather than £10 double. I'm the last person you need to convince about luck in this and when I say that, it isn't an arrogance, it's because I've kept a spreadsheet with every single selection I've made this season and it's I think 50 or so points up. So a £10 selection on each would have you £500 up. So I'm doing something right, just not when it comes to this thread. Your style on this is the most intriguing for me because I think it's along the similar sort of statistical data I try and go for myself. I've gone up the corners route before but it can just be that bit too volatile for me. I'm trying to avoid in-play bets as a general rule but I've had the odd winner on corners on that. Interested to know how you made that calculation on Girona too.

That's next week. Can use that for then if you wish but pick another for this week.

WEEK 24 - COULD HAVE GONE BETTER WEEK 24 STATS Winning bets: 2/6 Winning selections: 6/11 Weekly forum position: +£7.66 (Ranked 9/24) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 42/165 Winning selections: 143/310 Total forum position: -£303.09 And we're back again. Not loads of change in the table and one of the most balanced weeks we've had in terms of overall performance. I'll work chronologically on what actually happened over the weekend rather than up and down the table as it's about the only way I'll not come to myself last and there's only so many ways I can address that at this point. @CaaC (John) was the first player bust this week as he went for the Friday night clash between Burnley and Luton. Luton grabbed a controversial draw but it wasn't enough, but luckily Man Utd didn't win either so he wasn't cost, and is the only player to lose both picks this weekend. @Stan picks up consecutive wins picking Adam Armstrong to net in Southampton's latest 4-0 win over a bottom half team, which I feel like is almost a fortnightly occasion at this point. This did come however after his other selection in Bolton v Cheltenham was void due to a spectator illness, of which said Bolton fan did actually end up dying from, which is a shame to hear. He was given the option of replacing it with a second pick but cashed in for an £11 profit instead. @Pyfish gets back to winning ways. The Cole Palmer price to score at anytime was fantastic I have to see. He's the one plus in what's been another dreadful season for Chelsea and he scored another penalty to give them a 1-0 victory. Newcastle v Man City both teams to score, pays out after 35 minutes. Lovely. It's the biggest win of the week and largely responsible for the small profit we find ourselves in. Sunday however was much less productive. I happened to notice that the Barnsley - Bristol Rovers selection had come in after Barnsley won 2-1, so I just simply needed Girona, almost flawless Girona, to beat a barely believably bad Almeria side and for over a goal to land in the game. We've done it to death in here but you all know what happened. The price on Girona to win actually got even bigger prematch which is always a worrying sign. I watched the game play out and honestly, just how did they know? Almeria were the better team. It's baffling stuff to me. The sort that makes you wonder how people could ever make consistent money off doing this. That's 24 bets and just 1 win. That's truly awful, almost impressive to pull off. If you had to pick 24 bets to lose I think you would do very well to get 23. @RandoEFC moves to corners and suffers similar pain. Charlton v Peterborough defies the recent form and just 7 corners occur in the game. My gripe with betting on corners is it's just a bit too reliant on game-state. I'll give you an example here in that I had something on Derby v Burton last night via Bet365. For those unaware, Derby went 2-0 up so the Derby to win leg pays out, but I need Derby to get 4 corners as well. They had just the 1 corner as they went 2-0 up and this is a problem because there's less desire to attack. I got very lucky though, Burton came back to make it 2-2 and all of a sudden Derby had to attack them, and the corners flew in so I won. What's unlucky about this Charlton Peterborough pick for me is there was nothing in the game state that meant that should've lost, so it's just really unlucky. To rub salt into the wound, there were a staggering 21 corners in the Manchester United - Spurs game. There was room for one last bit of bad luck though as recent league leader @Lucas came awfully close to landing another massive win. AC Milan v Roma was a 3-1 home win, and a game that has ultimately ended up finishing Jose Mourinho's tenure there. Having watched their last three games, I did think it was coming soon, they look really poor. The unlucky part though is that PSG beat Lens 0-2, so he was just the goal off and Lens did have a man sent off in the first half, so I think it's quite plausible that they would've scored without it. This would've left him nearly £200 clear of 2nd and quite honestly, the comfortable favourite to win the league. We move on.

That's my point. I know numbers, and I know that it's all probability at the end of the day. This isn't merely "top couldn't beat bottom how is that even possible" it's that the gulf is absolutely enormous, they're 43 points apart after 19 games, so they build up on average over two points a game between them with every game they play! It would make more sense to me if Girona had gone off at say 2/5 to win the game and just not turned up. It's just that the bookies pre-empted that outcome and I cannot for the life of me see how. It genuinely fascinates me. I'd love to have Tony Bloom's number. I want him to explain to me what's just unfolded.

It's one of those games that makes me question everything I know to be honest. It's less about it being a freak result and more being the bookies seemed to know that would be fairly tight. Frankly, Almeria were the better side and came nearer to winning. It's just how did they know, looking at those respective records that it would be? This wasn't just bottom vs top, this was a team on course for a Derby 2008 points tally against a team on course for over 95 points. It's crazy.