Dan

Some good work boys. Will get a table up tomorrow hopefully if I get time. I lost once again.

Attempt #12 Gillingham v Notts County - over 3.5 goals @ 13/8 (2.62) - This was a case put forward on the not the top 20 podcast in that this game reeks of goals that the bookies don't seem to have quite cottoned onto. Notts County as we all know are complete chaos, registering a ridiculous 53 goals combined in their 13 games at an average of 4.07 a game, which is laughable in itself. Gillingham however have been the polar opposite, but the upper hand I think you have going for goals on this is that Neil Harris was sacked despite having them in a very respectable position in the table, the vibe around the sacking is simply the style of play, they're dour, they don't score many. Their new American owners want goals and entertainment. Their results so far under Keith Millen are 2-1, 5-1 (EFL Trophy granted) and 4-1. I'd normally only go as high as 2.5 for goal picks, but I do think with the nature of League Two so far this season, this could well go over that and the price given everything is quite kind. Lillestrom v Valerenga - over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (1.70) - This one is simply because I'm going to the game so don't take this as any sort of proper tip, I just felt a bit obliged to incorporate it somehow. Although I've gone for the goals angle due to the league being a pretty high scorer in general. Lillestrom average 3.25 goals a game in their games and Valerenga average 3.08, with the reverse fixture ending 4-3 to Lillestrom. I actually don't think the price is too bad really. I've somehow ended up with tickets in the away end of the biggest derby in Norway, so it should be an experience. £10 returns £44.62.

Yeah of course - I will always void it if they void it, I'll even top it up with an extra in the following week as it's only fair really. I likewise use flash, spend way too much time pissing around on it frankly.

This is going to be great to work out You know what, I'm sure it isn't as they'll have the stats on their side, but 10 corners a game and 3 goals a game on average doesn't sound that ridiculous in this season. The Championship and League Two seem to be massively goal heavy while League One is pretty tight. 3/1 on that seems alright to me. I've always liked the idea of combined games odds. Fucks me off when I have say... an over 2.5 treble, and get scores of 4-2, 3-3 and 1-1. The biggest threat to that may genuinely be the weather.

No problem. Know it's a weird week schedule but I blame TV companies!

WEEK 11 - FISH PIES ALL ROUND It appears my spreadsheet is corrupted. Why is there a load of green everywhere? Week 11 becomes the best week we have had as a forum by quite a distance. We owe this largely however to the bet of @Pyfish who lands a league best profit of £77.50 with his extremely impressive double. He was made to sweat by Northern Ireland and San Marino after the hosts rushed into an early 2-0 lead, but the game largely petered out and they only added a 3rd at the death. Lincoln suffered a rare home loss to an improving Burton meaning he lands the juicy win, and meaning he will be in profit for another 4 weeks at absolute worst regardless. @Machado is the subject in early week 12 controversy, and I have decided as a one-off as it may not have been clear that he can take his pick again as the week works from Tuesday to Monday on this, and he picked another game from the time period of week 11. I do it from Tuesday to Monday because of Monday night football games which are usually from the weekend before, and to me Monday to Tuesday does mark the new week. We'll call it a lucky escape. Luckily though for week 11 he claimed his 4th win in 6 picks, delving into the depths of the Turkish Cup to go against an out of sorts Denizlispor and go for a dour game between two teams who produce very little. A word on @CaaC (John) though. Bloody hell. He was extremely unlucky this week and as I'd previously stated, if he'd landed a winner this week he would've finished the season, at absolute worst, assuming he lost every other remaining week - £260ish up. Turkey was a big pick and in-fact, the best single priced winner chosen all season. Scotland, we all saw what happened, extremely unlucky to not take the lead in the second half and ended up losing the game 2-0. It's unfortunately a loss this week though, and he drops in the table along with 4 others. @RandoEFC lands another winner on the handicaps. Poland making trickier work of it with their 0-2 win in the Faroe Islands, but Portugal absolutely obliterated an abject Bosnia and the game was 0-5 by half time. This puts him above @Stan who loses for a fifth straight week and down to his worst overall position of the season. I think you have to sympathise again here, as of his six legs of the double, five of them won at an absolute canter, he was just let down by the lack of cards in Swindon's win over Newport. Pretty unlucky again for me. @Lucas drops into the extremely low reaches of the English game, but Warrington Rylands cost him what would've been a solid win that put him back near to breakeven. It's eleven, it's heaven. For the fucking bookies. I mean to be honest I'm not particularly angry this week, I think my logic was correct and I am a firm believer that with correctly applied logic, wins will find you. It was a pretty long shot and it came extremely close. I think under 4.5 goals is a bit of a hack. Under 4.5 goals was 8/11 as a single, yet combined with the almost certain outcome of a Northern Ireland win it boosted it pretty handily. Luxembourg's performance in Iceland wasn't brilliant, the first half was abject but they equalised immediately after half time. I think the sickening aspect here is that they missed an open goal in the 93rd minute. Such is the way for me this season. Something will land soon. I've had a pretty productive last three days on actual bets so I think it has to really. It's our best week of the season though, largely because of Pyfish, but good choices from most people and even the losers came extremely close. Back to a proper week of the calendar for the upcoming week. Probably a delayed table from me though as I'm landing back from Norway late on Monday night. Going to watch Lillestrom v Valerenga - might even have to include something from that game on this. WEEK 11 STATS Winning bets: 3/7 (42.9%) Winning selections: 10/14 (71.43%) Weekly forum position: +£61.24 (ranked 1st out of 11) OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 18/78 (23%) Winning selections: 67/149 (44.97%) Total forum position: -£230.64

The question then is does Machado get a pass, a second bite due to it being an error, or do we award the loss? I may say it just becomes a single on tomorrows game. I don't want to be picky on things but got to be consistent with everyone.

The week is technically Tuesday to Monday, I'll let it pass as it's internationals and the Tuesday to Monday thing is generally done based on a domestic calendar weekend. Interesting that you can bet on Russia - we can't bet on any Russian sport at all.

I didn't realise how unlucky John was. Fucking hell. That would've been a return to put the forum in substantial profit, and would've meant he finished the season at absolute worst case scenario £262 up

The best of the season quite comfortable. Will be a decent table update this week!

Video - d306764d - Oct 14, 2023 (streamin.me) Sighs!

Luxembourg back to being fucking shit then

Time to get a bit riskier, but there is method. Northern Ireland v San Marino - Northern Ireland to win & under 4.5 goals @ 9/10 (1.90) - I'm taking this because it's pretty much a certainty that Northern Ireland will win the game, being priced at 1/50 to win it and I don't think any real explanation is needed why. The under 4.5 goals angle however boosts the price enormously and while I appreciate there is always a risk of this going wrong against San Marino, it has paid out for 13 of their last 14 qualifiers with only a 6-0 loss at Finland going over 4.5. Northern Ireland themselves are hardly in blustering form and the bet has come in on all five occasions the two have met, including a 0-2 win for Northern Ireland in March. While San Marino are always open to being hammered, I think Northern Ireland's generally pretty dour style and signs of a team in decline (they've picked up 0 points from their 5 games against other opposition, scoring only twice) there's a very reasonable chance this comes in. Iceland v Luxembourg - Luxembourg to win @ 7/2 (4.50) - This one is quite risky so I won't kick off if it doesn't pay out (famous last words), but I think the bookies have gotten this one well wide of the mark and it's based on reputation as opposed to reality. I think there is still a perception of Luxembourg as this useless minnow and Iceland as this plucky team. The truth is if you look to the table, Luxembourg are the better team. Take out the anomaly of playing Portugal, who are quite considerably the strongest team in Group J, the form is as follows: Iceland (2-0-3), Luxembourg (3-1-0), against the same opposition, including Luxembourg winning the reverse 3-1 at home - a game where they exerted clear control. My worry is the pressure may get to Luxembourg somewhat, but there is absolutely nothing to suggest to me that Luxembourg should be anywhere near this big a price. Iceland have already lost at home to Slovakia and while beating Bosnia at home, they were pretty fortunate too. Luxembourg have drawn at Slovakia and won away at Bosnia. I wouldn't call this anywhere near a banker, but I think the bookies are wrong here. £10 returns £85.90.

Horrible. Was only so recently actually employed by the club as well as he was part of Smith's team. One of the gooduns. Wish him all the best.

I'm gonna have to start backing these. They're that niche that there can only be decent research done on them. Very interesting the top one - flash scores tells me that Denizlispor were 1.12 to win the game, suspended and then came back in at 1.95.

He's back to try and save the forum, I wish you the best!

I quite like that top one. That's a good shout. It feels very 2-0.

WEEK 10 - IMPROVEMENT BUT STILL DOWN As the title explains, we see an upturn on last weeks disaster but unfortunately it's actually a negative weekend as the wins were small and only 3 of them happened. We also saw no movement in the table at all for the first time all season. I'm sort of happy to see @Machado rewarded for delving into the most sick in the head league I've seen toyed with this season as a double chance in the Egyptian Premier League pays out, though it did turn out Smouha actually won the game 2-1 so an outright pick would've also landed, but wins are wins. I've long held a belief that research into some of these leagues can actually pay dividends so I'm glad to see it rewarded. With an even smaller win this week was @CaaC (John) who picked two home certs in the Europa League in Liverpool and Roma and neither failed, meaning he holds onto second place. The final winner was @RandoEFC who's asian handicaps seem to be serving him well. Leicester doing the business against Stoke and the bolder pick of Atletico Madrid being saved by a late Griezmann penalty to push it. Another small win. @Stan's been pretty unlucky again. With the Southampton game paying out courtesy of a late Rotherham equaliser (life under Russell Martin) it would've been pretty unfortunate in my opinion for that one to lose as the stats paint complete domination. The Crawley Wrexham game was a bloodbath that had everything but goals, only the one landed, and another would've put him quite comfortable at the top of the table again. @Pyfish hits the most annoying thing in betting in my opinion in that he lands his outside pick of Scunthorpe at above evens, yet is let down by a far shorter price in Luton v Tottenham. I could write a book on the day I had yesterday where such events occurred. There is now unfortunately a big gap between 7th and 8th, with anybody called Dan in this game seemingly cursed. It's @...Dan who comes closer this week as the Roda pick wins, but he does seem to have a pretty unfortunate habit in this of picking teams who don't only not win, but get absolutely bashed. VVV the latest culprits, going down 3-0 to Ajax reserves and on current form you'd probably tip them to beat the first team, who were beaten again this weekend at home by AZ Alkmaar - something I wish I'd had in here. Finally, I come to myself again. I mean given Lens didn't win either I can't whinge too much but the fact I've managed to coax a goal out of Cheltenham is just incredible. I should've known it would be Derby. They really are a comedy club nowadays. In terms of actual single selections it's a pretty good week, but unfortunately it is still a loss on the whole albeit not a huge one. International weekend so it's slim pickings, but maybe that's the chance to dabble into some of the more peculiar things out there. I think this is a route I'll have to go down. Anything beats this dog shit. WEEK 10 STATS Winning bets: 3/7 (42.9%) Winning selections: 8/13 (61.53%) Weekly forum position: -£16.06 (ranked 4th out of 10) OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 15/71 (21.12%) Winning selections: 57/135 (42.22%) Total forum position: -£291.88

It's just truly remarkable at this point.

Here he goes again, attempt number 10. After dabbling all week with having Huddersfield to win at Sheffield Wednesday, the sacking of Xisco Munoz and the shortening of Huddersfield's price has put me off, so I have opted for this. Lens I've talked up in here before. They were extraordinarily unlucky to lose the last time they were backed in here and the underlying data tells you they're hitting similar levels in performance this time around, albeit without quite having the results to back it up yet - though I think you can probably forgive them as they've had pretty tough fixtures in trips to PSG and Monaco, unluckily drew at home to Rennes, lost at Brest (although Brest have started very well themselves) and then had that Metz debacle. Since the Metz loss, they have drawn away at Sevilla, beaten Toulouse, Strasbourg and then in the week turned over Arsenal at home. They are a good team and they are picking up again. Lille is their derby fixture which I think can throw a lot of form out of the equation, but I just think better than evens on Lens here is worth taking - particularly with Lille coming back off a midweek trip to Klaksvik (which they didn't win) and have demonstrated very mixed form themselves. For my other I'm taking the under 5 goals and win pick again. Derby are 1/2 (1.50) to win the game and throwing under 5 goals into the equation delivers a nice little boost to the price against a team who are remarkably yet to score a single goal in their 11 league games so far. I think another funny element with Cheltenham is the fact they didn't score in the League Cup, and in the EFL Trophy they lost 4-1 to Bristol Rovers, with their goal coming from an own goal, so no Cheltenham player has actually netted yet. There is a gulf in quality in this game and although Derby are prone to a dodgy result, they ought to be winning this one and I think given Cheltenham are so barren in front of goal, it's worth taking the unders in this here. Under 4.5 goals has paid out in 20 of the combined 21 games these two have played this season.

WEEK 9 - PITIFUL After a slightly improved period, this weekend has served to wipe out all of the good as all eight players posted a loss for only the second time this season, making it the joint worst week of the season along with week two. It started early on with league leading @Machado losing on Bracknell's failure to score twice in their home game with Beaconsfield - falling to a surprise 0-3 defeat in what also takes the unwanted crown of being the shortest odds loser of the season, beating the current leader of @RandoEFC picking Chelsea to score twice at home to Forest. Hartlepool v Solihull ended 0-2, so a payout there. @CaaC (John) couldn't back up his big win. Atletico going 0-2 down but eventually beating Cadiz, however Atalanta could only muster a goalless draw with Juventus, so no winner this time. Thought I'd introduce a movement tab to show who has done what in the table relating to last week as I found it funny that the only riser in the table was the only one who didn't play. @Stan falls to a third straight loss with probably his poorest of the season yet. A surprisingly tame Basque derby produced only 40 booking points. Always think that a comprehensive victory for one team is a death knell for booking points. Guirassy's form dried up this week, Stuttgart taking a 0-2 victory at Koln but Brighton loanee Deniz Undav got both goals. @Pyfish came fairly close, impressively landing the Tonali booking, but Alvarez didn't score on the night as Man City exited the EFL Cup with a 1-0 loss at Newcastle. @Lucas came the closest to a winner this week, Fiorentina swatting aside Cagliari 3-0 but Fulham couldn't score past Chelsea, which cost the bet. @RandoEFC loses on the asian handicaps this week as PSG somehow manage to draw with bottom of the table Clermont. A game that cost me a bet as well, infuriatingly. Newcastle made no mistake and they seem to have gotten their early season issues put well to the side now. @...Dan still can't catch a break, his Dutch double pretty disastrous as both of his picks were beaten pretty comfortably at home and is still yet to taste victory. Once again, I have to finish talking about myself. 9 defeats from 9 and it really does just feel like a curse at this point when I can somehow produce a loser with those selections. The Arsenal selection wasn't miles off losing but I maintain that was great value. Man City however, just what the hell can you even say at this point? A dreadful week unfortunately. WEEK 9 STATS Winning bets: 0/8 (0%) Winning selections: 5/15 (33.3%) Weekly forum position: -£80.00 OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 12/64 (18.75%) Winning selections: 49/122 (40.16%) Total forum position: -£275.82

Absolutely horrid weekend this.

The cards line is hilarious in Spain and Portugal. I think the cards line for Benfica v Porto was between 100 and 110 booking points which is absolutely laughable. Their game tonight produced 120 booking points (if a straight red is 30?).

I'm surprised by how much it actually does shift the odds although while I haven't done it loads of times, I have been stung before too. I remember having Benfica to beat Brugge last year with under 4.5 goals and I think they beat them 5-1. But when you look at the ones I've picked there. Man City's away results so far are 1-3 at West Ham, 1-2 at Sheff Utd, 0-3 at Burnley. They're missing possibly their most important player after Haaland in Rodri which should in theory weaken them a touch and thus, hopefully, lower the chance they absolutely rag Wolves. Wolves don't score too many. Adding in under 4.5 goals takes it from 1.33 to 1.72. It's absolutely infuriating if they do and win 1-4 or 0-5 but is it seriously that likely? I think it definitely throws some value into things. Arsenal as well are taken from 1.57 to 1.95 by adding in under 4.5 goals. Their away record is 0-1 win, 0-1 win, and then in the cup, another 0-1 win - and something I noticed quite a lot with them last season is they'd win 0-1 or 0-2 away but generally save the chaotic games for when they're at home. Their wins have been against teams of a similar nature to Bournemouth too. Unders markets are overpriced simply because they're less enjoyable to track. It's quite satisfying with things like both teams to score, over 2.5, even just win markets on 365 (given the 2 goal payout) that you can be 'safe' early but with an unders bet it goes to the death. I think people simply avoid it for that reason. It's totally understandable but I think mine, particularly under 4.5 goals, boosts the value way beyond what it truly is given the odds on them to win. It's a method I see a pro gambler using quite a bit. He's quite a fan of win and over 1.5 goals as well which is just basically any win bar 1-0. That does a decent boost too. I landed a nice one tonight where I had a red card to be shown in Benfica v Porto at 2.50 - came in after 19 minutes

Attempt number 9 at landing a winner. Pretty self explanatory but I fully expect both of these two to win, and under 5 goals seems a decent way to boost the price as neither of them do tend to rack up that many big wins away from home. This selection has paid out for all 6/6 away games involving these two teams this season. £10 returns £33.72.