What do you think is a realistic scenario with how we'll be set up to trade with Europe and the rest of the world post-Brexit.
If we lived in a world where Donald Trump didn't just win the U.S. presidency, I'd be fairly optimistic about the idea I once thought was silly of Britain being a part of NAFTA. But NAFTA's future is in doubt with Trump, and who in the hell knows how negotiating with his administration will go. His stance is reminiscent of very old U.S. isolationist policies. But realistically, what we've seen from his presidency is while he may have said certain things on the campaign trail... what he actually tries to push as a president may be very different.
There's no real guarantee that NAFTA can become the biggest trading block and usurp the EU, especially as Trump's NAFTA talk caused massive economic uncertainty in Mexico, and now Mexico is looking for agricultural imports they've traditionally bought from the U.S. from Latin American countries. Fuck knows what kind of impact this will have on the United States' economy (although trade with Mexico accounts for 1 in 5 jobs in Texas). Mexico has to do this because in the face of economic uncertainty, any financial advisor will suggest diversifying. The UK and EU will be looking to do similar moves as well, considering the uncertainty in the future trade talks that lie ahead.
The anti-globalist position of many Brexit supporters also poses major issues for the best way for Britain to enter into trade agreements in a post-Brexit world. For manufacturing to return to Britain en masse, we'd have to see workers rights in the country totally gutted, so as to provide for cheaper British labour. This would likely mean more jobs available... but it would also mean adjusting expectations regarding income and quality of life. Alternatively, we could force tarrifs on imported goods - but without bringing widespread manufacturing back all that will do is make it so fewer people can afford quality goods. And a less isolationistic approach would involve trying to engage in global trade, where the futures of the two largest trade blocks are in doubt and uncertain.
Economic stagnation WILL lead to a brain drain. It doesn't matter what country it is, if you can take your qualifications and experience and get paid a lot more than you would in the UK... it is hard to say no to a significantly fatter wallet. My concern is that Britain has done so much to weaken it's manufacturing capability since the 1980s and done so much to push towards services being the backbone of our economy, what happens if the economy majorly stagnates and other countries come calling for our top export producers. The financial services sector makes up the vast majority of our net exports. Insurance services is the next largest, but it's barely a third (if that) of what the financial services sector does for net UK imports. As someone who's clients are generally banks and insurance companies... and who left the UK for moneymoneymoney, I see stagnation as a way for Britain to lose some of it's best talent.
Honestly, I think Britain's best hope is for more and more isolationist policies coming from the majority of countries worldwide. But I don't think that's likely at all, as it doesn't make economic sense for most countries to adopt those policies. Ultimately, I understand the harm caused by Thatcher's dismantlement of our manufacturing sector and I know how it devastated communities. But at the same time, I think it's a bit of a case of "too little, too late" to fight against globalism decades after the western and eastern world have embraced it.
I hope I am wrong, and that Brexit does some good for our economy and our people. But I don't think there was a whole lot of foresight in the arguments for Brexit and I don't really see the government moving with a cohesive and thought out plan, and I simply can't see it being good for us in the short term. I'm actually fairly despondent because last year I was thinking about moving back to England, but now I'm not confident it is in my financial interest to. And I'm not particularly thrilled about the possibility of needing to learn a new language if I want to get the hell out of America.