Honey Honey

13% of cases in Spain are also healthcare workers. The great scandal in all of this when it is over is going to be how medical professionals didn't have the gear to be protected.

Don't think that has actually been confirmed. The WHO have guidelines on reporting. I'd be surprised if Germany aren't following them. Though I believe the UK aren't recording coronavirus deaths unless it happens in a hospital. Some Mediterranean islands similarly locked down hard and fast a couple of weeks ago. In Cyprus you're not even allowed outside for exercise. All flights were banned. Nationals being brought back on government chartered flights were taken into the mountains and quarantined in hotels for 2 weeks. Businesses have to shut or owners face jail time. It seems to be working for them. Their peak is coming and likely low. Almost overnight a couple of weeks ago Malta decided every tourist on the island isn't allowed out of their hotel room.

Imperial college modelling expected 260 deaths in a day to be the peak in mid April, with 6k deaths total. We have 260 deaths today! Modelling way out. If it underestimated us has it underestimated Spain where it expected 50,000 deaths? Let's hope it overestimated there.

Usually takes 2-3 weeks for deaths to emerge after cases. New Zealand had 5 cases 2 weeks ago.

New York state in massive trouble. Fuck me. It's going to make Wuhan look like a sneeze at this rate. US in general on course for 1000+ deaths per day within a couple of weeks. Lets hope it curves well before then.

Here are those estimated stats if you want them

Higher mortality rates likely caused by concentrated community outbreaks. So the idea that loads more people have it so Germany mortality rate is real might not be the right way to look at it. Test. Trace. Isolate. It's what the WHO said and it's what Germany and South Korea are doing well. Others are doing little testing. No tracing. Hence everyone must isolate. We'll only get out of isolation when we mass test constantly.

Chris Witty is now self isolating after displaying symptoms. Whole UK crisis leadership is going to be Skype only for 14 days

As someone wrote on twitter, the lesson is there is no such thing as centralised expertise. SAGE provided the information that gave confidence to the governments earlier approach. The public inquiry after will be damning.

Is there actually any hard evidence that was true? We know the guy is a bumbling buffoon at times so you're going off his odd words about it. We know he shook hands with the staff, medical staff who at that point have no excuse about why they were shaking people's hands, but it was denied by no.10 that he shook hands with patients. This was also over 3 weeks ago so he hasn't got it from that. Remember when you say "they" in this matter you're really talking about SAGE. The scientists, academics and experts that are advising the government. Some of whom with the highest level of education possible and decades of experience. SAGE was very split on what to do. The government backed one of the viewpoints from SAGE. Yes they have a final say and someone else may have backed another, but it's way to easy to pretend what happened here as all down to political clowns who didn't take it seriously.

I dunno. Governance was never going to isolate and work from home using Microsoft Teams conference calling. No political leader in times of fear was going to deliver a press conference to the nation via webcam in their pyjama's. If emergency services carry on politicians will as well. It's part of the job. Rather than interpreting it as an example of some incompetence it should be an example of what happens when you carry on with life. If outbreak areas are anything to go by then this is going to spread among those who can't isolate. Key services. There's no choice there. Everyone else needs to lock away to give them a better chance.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has coronavirus now as well. Not surprising. The government aren't exactly staying at home in isolation and no doubt advisors meet with people who've been on the front line.

Nadine Dorries came back to parliament 2 days ago. Two weeks after being diagnosed. Coincidence? Also his gf is pregnant.

DWP isn't going to be able to process all UC claims overnight. There are 500k applicants and they've processed 100k in a day. They're reallocating 10,000 staff and hiring a further 1500 but that will take time. The queue probably doesn't really matter anyhow. You won't be paid for 5 weeks from the date you ask the claim period to start from so it doesn't matter if you get through now or in 1 week. Those on SA whose work has dried up are entitled up to £2500 a month for the next 3 months. The caveat is that it will be paid in a lump sum in June/July. Those who don't have rainy day funds will need UC and overdrafts to get to that date.

We don't seem to be getting any hospitalised or critical cases data in the UK. Must be sizeable for 115 to die in one day. US have similar deaths today, though the day isn't over for them, with over 2000 in intensive care. I suppose we must presume the same.

Spain death toll over 4000 now. Emergency state extended two weeks. They bought hundreds of thousands of test kits from China which have a reported 80% error rate according to Czechs.

China probably. Wuhan locked down a lot earlier and more efficiently than Lombardy and Madrid. They also built an entire hospital to cope with capacity issues. If I recall correctly Wuhan locked down at under 100 deaths. Spain locked down the day they surpassed 350.

A Madrid, Wuhan or Lombardy style outbreak would be economic hell under free market conditions that would have severe knock on effects for banking. State intervention would become necessary when an outbreak collapses the way of life. The choice can simply be put as state control now to mitigate chaos or state response to chaos itself. Based on those mentioned outbreak areas it would be a hell of a gamble to go with the latter and such a decision should be made under the false guise that keeping surf shops lights on would better mitigate chaos. Some European governments are state control protecting now. The US on the other hand is looking like already leaning towards state response to chaos itself in the name of the free market by ramping up unemployed benefits rather than guaranteeing jobs for a couple of months.

Lockdown with some strong degree of job guarantees and business assistance, as per most countries, likely means quicker return to economic normality than the turmoil of having businesses readjust to volatile demand levels and the long term unemployement that creates. With the right measures what might be a depression in terms of transaction falls will actually be a pause. Whereas having the virus tear through the economy would cause a real recession or depression.

What was that all aboot

I'd be surprised if they didn't put something in place. You don't need someone on the end of the phone so that should be straight forward button pressing. Nudge probably knows best but I believe tests usually look for what is least likely to mutate. Something like that. No real idea though