RandoEFC

Results - Saudi Grand Prix Qualifying on Friday saw everybody take the safe, but correct route of a Max Verstappen pole position, setting everyone off on 5 points despite a decent challenge from Charles Leclerc. Before I go any further, I'll just clarify that anyone who had Sainz left in their final predictions saw him automatically replaced with Bearman. The race was more interesting as the "non-Verstappen" top three resulted in Sergio Perez in 1st ahead of Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. @RandoEFC, @The Palace Fan and @Coma were the big winners here, getting two of the first three members of the "podium" exactly correct for 10 points. @MUFC wasn't far behind with Perez in the correct spot and Leclerc missing out by one place for 7 points. @Stan, @Tommy, @nudge, @DeadLinesman and @OrangeKhrush all scored 4 points with both Leclerc and Perez featuring in their top threes, but neither of them in the correct slot. @Whiskey was let down by Alonso and Russell and picks up just 2 points here for having Perez in his top three. Nobody had Oscar Piastri at all in their top three, so no points for anyone from him. On to this week's random driver, and we had a big hitter for the second week running in Charles Leclerc. @RandoEFC, @The Palace Fan and @Coma made further ground here with their prediction of 3rd matching up with their podium predictions and bagging them another 5 points. @Stan decided to hedge his bets with Leclerc's finishing position and where he missed out in the main podium prediction, he scores the full 5 points here as well. Everyone else was out by one position on either side, which is bad luck for them! Finally, nobody nailed the bonus question by predicting Haas to secure the highest finishing position outside of the "top five" teams. Alex Albon's 11th place was the highest out of the team's who saw any backing so @Tommy, @nudge and @OrangeKhrush collect an extra 2 points here for the best wrong answer. Here's what it does for the early standings: A middling week for @Tommy sees his lead slashed to 1 point as Saudi's 20-pointers @RandoEFC, @The Palace Fan and @Coma are hot on his heels. There isn't a lot of field spread anywhere at this early stage. This week's top scorers were Mercedes, and its enough to see @The Palace Fan and @MUFC rise to the top of the Constructors standings. A poor start for Ferrari, the lowest scorers in both weeks so far, sees them with work to do to catch up to the close pack of the other four teams.

Results - Gameweek Four A boring week indeed as all of @Michael, @Tommy, @Lucas, @Stan and @Storts backed Barcelona ahead of their 1-0 win over Mallorca and progress through to Gameweek Five. Please see the fixtures below! Preview - Gameweek Five Below are the next set of fixtures and the last before the international break. Make sure you're not picking a team you've already used! Real Sociedad vs Cadiz Mallorca vs Granada Osasuna vs Real Madrid Getafe vs Girona Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alaves Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Las Palmas vs Almeria Villarreal vs Valencia Rayo Vallecano vs Real Betis Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Good luck!

That has to be a body blow for Luton. Don't care how much of an underdog you are or how much credit you get for playing bravely, surrendering a three goal lead on the road is absolutely criminal.

Watch any Premier League game next weekend that doesn't involve Man City or Liverpool and you'll see ample evidence of how incompetent the officials are. I'm afraid you're peddling nothing short of a conspiracy theory here mate. If a bad decision against Liverpool is explained by this conflict of interest you're going on about then what's the explanation for every other bad decision that goes against a different team? The media angle is a bit odd as well to be honest. 10% of the discourse I saw about that Forest goal was from the media and 90% of it was Liverpool fans trying to "prove" there was nothing wrong with the goal. I also don't think officials give a fuck what gets said about them and not that many people are talking about these UAE trips. That's probably a better explanation as to why they've continued rather than the fact that there actually is a conflict of interest. I do agree that they should stop though.

You keep talking about these accusations. I don't disagree that they're on dodgy ground. But you're stopping short of actually saying you think the reason they didn't give the second penalty there is because they're taking money from the UAE league. I suspect that's because you know that's not true. It's a poor reflection on the officiating in the league but that failure to award a penalty yesterday simply isn't out of the ordinary when you look at how many controversial decisions happen every weekend.

I don't disagree with you but there is a gap between "they're leaving themselves open to accusations of a conflict of interest" and "they're going to stop getting money from UAE if they give decisions against City".

There's not a legit reason. They just bottled it in my opinion.

I'm sorry but are we seriously doing this again? I can't for the life of me understand how people see how many decisions, many of them obviously wrong, go for and against every team in the league every weekend and think that referees are in the pay of one team or another. Referees can't control the outcomes of matches lads. Why would somebody waste their time and money and risk paying off a set of officials to favour them in marginal calls when, if Luis Diaz puts one or two of his chances away for example, Liverpool win the match anyway? They definitely have their unconscious biases. Like I said originally, I'm sure the VAR and referee were reluctant to give Liverpool two penalties in one potentially title-deciding match, no matter how clear and obvious, because they know that that's all that people will talk about afterwards. The officiating in the league is consistently terrible and the way accountability works between the on-pitch referee and the VAR doesn't lend itself to correct outcomes being achieved. It's also not right that teams of officials are flying across to the Middle East or wherever to officiate a midweek game to make extra money when they've got a league depending on them to do their main job properly at the weekend. They're not getting paid off to favour one team or the other, though, I'm afraid. They're just not.

I'm usually quite pessimistic but teams have peaks and troughs throughout a season. If you look at it objectively, it's unlikely that a team like Everton who were somewhere around the outer European spots throughout November and December are unlikely to end the season on a run of 2 wins in 20 or whatever it would take for us to perform badly enough to be below Luton and a points-deducted Forest. By the same measure, it's unlikely that an Everton team capable of an 11-game winless run were ever going to maintain that pre-Christmas form for a full season. I expect us to regress to the mean. As much as losing at home to Brentford, Forest, even Burnley or Sheffield United wouldn't shock me in the slightest with this lot, it also wouldn't shock me to see us go and shit-house a 1-0 win at Chelsea or Newcastle to "make up for it". We've been in much worse positions than we are now in the last two seasons and when push came to shove, they found enough to dig themselves out. Unfortunately, they also have a tendency to leave themselves absolutely no margin for error so I fully expect to go into Sheffield United at home knowing that a win probably gets us over the line even though the fixtures we have and capability of the squad is such that it shouldn't need to go that far.

Prevailing knowledge seems to be that Everton will be docked 2 points for the second breach and Forest should be getting 6 taken off, possibly more. We're on a shambolic run of 11 games without a win. It sounds worse than it is to be fair. We picked up 5 draws in that time despite playing Man City twice, Spurs twice, Villa at home, Wolves away, Brighton away, Fulham away and Man Utd away. None of those are games that could go down as "expect to win". The problem is that we didn't take advantage of Palace at home just before they appointed a new manager, that we squandered a 1-0 lead against ten men in injury time at Brighton, and the capitulation at home to West Ham. Luton showed character to rescue a point at Palace but largely, I think their purple patch is over. I wouldn't rule them out in too many games but they also have a tough run-in. Forest should be getting hit with a penalty that'll put them about 6-7 points behind us. I was a little bit worried about their uptick in form when they changed manager but it seems to have fizzled out and I don't know if they've got it in them to claw back the points they're likely to get deducted. We've got Bournemouth and Luton away and Forest, Brentford, Burnley and Sheff Utd at home. I think it would take a pretty calamitous run-in for us to finish behind both Luton and Forest from where we're at. If we don't improve after this three-week break we have coming up, though, we'll be in serious trouble. It's when, not if, for Burnley and Sheffield United. Crystal Palace will be fine. That's a pretty nasty run-in for them after the next two games though. Brentford have a nicer run-in and they have a lot of those "maybe" games like Man Utd, Brighton, Fulham and Newcastle at home where you could quite easily catch those teams on a bad day and get a win that wouldn't necessarily go down as "expected". Both could have been in a proper scrap in a season without points deductions and the worst set of promoted sides we've seen in years but they've got enough this time around. I don't think either of them will get overtaken by any of Everton, Forest or Luton to be honest, let alone all three of them.

Often find Klopp annoying in his interviews these days but fair play for calling out that Mike Dean and all the other ex-referees who get asked will make up an excuse or new unwritten rule for why the VAR decision not to award the penalty was actually correct.

They probably give that as a penalty normally but there's subconscious bias against giving it when the team has already had one in the game and when it's likely to decide such a big game. Liverpool should have had a hatful in that second half. City really didn't seem at it.

Bearman, a really good solid debut race, fair play. Nothing of much interest otherwise. The only other thing that's commentworthy to me is that Red Bull are taking the piss if they think either Ricciardo or Tsunoda will offer anything more than Perez in that second seat. All three of them are absolute bang average.

Do we not have a thread for Saudi? says it all. I would call out Stroll for being an absolute waste of a seat again but to be honest bringing out the safety car is a reasonable contribution to what was already looking like another procession.

Worst of both worlds for me. Palace Luton match is one goal short for my bet but Palace don't even hold on to the 1-0 to help Everton.

Predictable garbage. Both teams just spent the second half going through the motions because they knew as well as we did that match was over the second Tarkowski lost his mind and kicked Garnacho over. Three weeks without Everton. Get in. Dyche has that time now to reset the team and come back and get enough points not to have us in trouble in the last few weeks. We have the fixtures and this is a good time for a break. I just about trust that he'll deliver but he's winless in 11 and the patience is always less when your matches are shite to watch as well.

This team is torture to watch. Last weekend everyone was crying about how our attacking players need to step up because they're letting our very good defensive players down. This weekend our defenders have responded by leaving all of their brain cells at home. Man Utd hand out points like sweets nowadays and I've just heard in commentary we've not beaten them in 11 years. That's embarrassing. We reserve all of our worst performances for them. They don't even play well against us, we just find ways to gift them goals and wins. Godfrey was initially doing a decent job at right back but I don't get Dyche's vendetta against Patterson. Young and Godfrey have made just as many howlers when they've been given games at right back and keep their place but as soon as Patterson has a wobbly performance he isn't trusted for 3 months. It's more about the fact that he actually runs past the halfway line and it gives the manager a nosebleed. Losing my patience with Harrison as well. Our team is a horrendous place for any attacking player to showcase any quality but you still get SOME opportunities and I can't remember the last time he did anything useful in the final third.

Fuck sake.

United are absolutely shite and they're not up for it here yet we've gifted them a lead to hold on to and we're more likely to lose 3-0 from counter attacks than we are to equalise.

Obviously a stonewall penalty by today's standards and it's idiotic from Tarkowski but if football was anything resembling a genuine 'sport' anymore it would be Garnacho getting booked there for throwing himself down when he could quite easily have stayed on his feet and continued the attack. Don't know why I watch this shite anymore to he honest.

Gagging for Adrian Newey to leave that team.

Yeah my betting is based on the Asian handicap line and Asian goal line in the first instance and that's where the bulk of my money goes. Although I'm starting to see some serious success on Asian Corners (both totals and handicaps) after tweaking my calculations again. I'm also doing nicely on match shots and shots on target and team shots and shots on target. The Asian lines odds are usually better although there are exceptions. I often find the draw no bet market can be better value than the 0.0 handicap one. Also you get the early payout safety net on bet365 by taking a straight win over a -0.5 as well so there's pros and cons. Nice 6-2 win for Gala tonight to get me started anyway.

My offering for this weekend: Galatasaray host Caykur Rizespor this evening. Rizespor aren't the worst team in the league, in fact they're in the top half. Their away form is terrible though with 3 draws and 7 defeats in their last 10. Travelling to Galatasaray who have a 100% home record this season doesn't look likely to change that. 1.66 should be decent odds for Galatasaray to win by a couple. I got on Over 2.5 for Palace and Luton when it opened at 2.025. I think these odds are really generous even now at 1.75. Luton games tend to be goal heavy with an average of 3.5 match goals for the season and 8 of their last 9 league matches clearing this line. I won't pretend to be an expert on Glasner but you wouldn't say his appointment is likely to see a reduction in the goals they'll see when compared to Roy Hodgson. Statistically speaking, the last time a Palace match didn't have at least 2 goals was back in October when they drew 0-0 with Forest. 14 of their 19 games since then have seen 3 or more goals. Luton generally manage to score in games but their defence is awful and I'd back Palace to score at least a couple. £10 returns £30.10 Edit: changed my pick to the Asian version of the same bet which slightly increases the odds. Leaving my original betslip below because I think it's useful if you didn't already know to see the difference in price for the exact same bet.

@OrangeKhrush @MUFC and @DeadLinesman left.

No, the whole establishment (PL, Sky, etc.) didn't like Leicester's title win at all and from what I understand that isn't a secret amongst footballing circles either.