Fairy In Boots

On 02/04/2020 at 08:58, Harvsky said:

If they mobilised they can get there. South Korea can do it and are the same size as England. We aren't bothering because the aim is to create a test everyone can buy from Boots and Superdrug instead.

Once the peak in lockdown is reached it will likely take 3-6 weeks to open things again. Then it's a case of what is the strategy to stop or isolate a second wave. How do you do that without test and trace?

I don’t know anything about our testing strategy at all, but I do know there is a global shortage of reagents and out assay production is tiny compared to Korea. To ramp up production you would need capital equipment for assay production and virtually all that sort of equipment is made in a Germany in my experience. Plus we’re dealing with piracy now, gone is the world of international  Collaboration 

https://t.co/Z6gqRiVddc?amp=1

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Data starting to emerge supporting a Wuhan death toll of more than 40,000. Not 2500 as reported by the CCP

They lied to protect their economy the world needs to wean itself off the Chinese teat after this

Just seen the spectator report that the US now has over 200,000 cases

24 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

Sir Patrick Vallance would love that. He's probably modelling how soon it would all be over if he knock's on everyone's door under the age of 60 and breaths on them 

Seriously though it's too early to say but anything less than test and trace is a recipe to getting screwed.

I just don’t know how feasible testing in tracing is we don’t have the manpower to do that and we are already full blown pandemic  mode I will probably say we’ve got within the region of 100-250,000 suspected cases we just can’t test on track that. We can’t fucking test & track 10,000 fucking terrorists let alone 100,000 people with flu like symptoms. 

6 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

What? Hancock said weeks ago that he was in discussions with supermarkets and retailers up and down the country about dealing with the panic buying situation and the body that acts as a spokesperson for those industries came out and said there had been absolutely no contact from the government. Then there was the EU procurement scheme fiasco where Hancock said he expected us to be involved and a week later the government were like "oh lol sorry we found the emails in our spam folder" and that's why we didn't join in before it also came to light that we had representatives at meetings where it was discussed in person. Now we have Gove making claims about the reactives or whatever they're called being unavailable and saying he's been in touch with the appropriate people and they're saying the complete opposite.

They've done some things well, provided the appropriate financial support (not that they had any choice because I don't know what viable alternative there was if they want people to follow the restrictions without vast swathes of the country going destitute) and yes the extra hospitals are obviously a good move but just because they've got some basic things right doesn't mean you cant question their decisions and statements elsewhere. I think most sensible people have a certain amount of sympathy and patience with the government because nobody could get all these calls right in such an unprecedented crisis as this but I'd feel much more comfortable if they were willing to admit the occasional misstep rather than try and pretend every u-turn is all part of the plan.

Anyway, what the fuck is this all about?

 

The body that acts as spokesperson said they hadn’t spoken to them not the retailers themselves. We’ve got a body for our industry, they came straight past and spoke direct to us to save time. 

regulatory bodies that are basically an index and an annual exhibition with a bit of governmental lobbying aren’t the industry. 

food supply can recover, the problem is that it’s not getting chance it needs a week to recover. 
toilet paper for example we’re actually a net exporter of we have 10 years supply. 

globally their is a reagents shortage, the CDC’s trial fucked it and the US brought millions. Ireland has the same problem. 
 

We probably fucked it by not testing and initially trying to slow the epidemic based on that WHO report out of Wuhan, Italy showed the Chinese have lied so we reversed strategy but by that point the suppression horse had bolted so it’s testing when coming in with symptoms. I reckon we probably have 150,000 cases now

On 31/03/2020 at 17:51, Bluewolf said:

I do worry when the Government still can't answer a simple direct question from the press... Gove was just asked why it was that Germany are able to test 70,000 people a day and yet over here we are only managing roughly 10,000 and after bouncing it between 3 of them not one of them actually had an answer to that question and avoided it altogether.. this was despite just saying earlier that the NHS was in a strong position... I do hate politics and politicians art of ducking a direct question by dragging the conversation all round the houses until the point has been lost... 

There’s a global shortage of chemical components for of the kits, because some countries have brought them all. The  NHS are hard pressed as we’re climbing into our peak so now we test incoming traffic to hospitals rather than just randomly stopping people in the street or setting up testing points like the states. If you have symptoms we test as an incoming patient. 

Drive is to start testing isolating nhs staff to get them back to work first but you need NHS staff to do this. 
Army are in from tomorrow to relieve NHS by managing logistics into hospitals of PPE etc so that NHS staff are freed up to concentrate on front line care and testing. Huge logistical operation is afoot
 

On 31/03/2020 at 17:53, Stan said:

Some journalists need to be a bit persistent in this scenario too. I know they're on time limits but push them a bit more instead of just accepting any old answer. 

Some are blatantly trying to grind their brexit axes now, I turned off QT the other night was complete horseshit 

20 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

This is happening on an almost daily basis, politicians coming out with some facts or vague plans that they're putting in place and it being proven wrong by the industries they've been "talking to" within minutes.

Honestly now that the social distancing/lockdown/school closure rules are no longer being reviewed on a daily basis I think they can stick a pin in the daily news conferences for a couple of weeks until they have something tangible to tell us.

They’ve built 3 makeshift hospitals in 3 weeks, remortgaged the country and its blatantly obvious at this point that China have lied about the severity of this pandemic. I just don’t know what your on about here, they’ve been remarkably open and honest about it we get unfiltered access to the science 

6 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Ever since yesterdays press conference there has been a flurry of articles about testing. 

None of which make SAGE look good. Lockdown was the result of backlash against SAGE putting pressure on the government and testing will go down the same path.

I think based on a conference call we were apart of discussing supply chain for ventilators with some of these Sage guys, NHS managers, Government officials and manufacturers  that a lot of decisions we’re based on initial WHO report out of Wuhan which they increasingly feel is utter bullshit. Germany are taking French & Italian patients specifically to test as they don’t trust that initial WHO report. 

Also credit to Johnson he was in a conference call gone 11pm while he’s got it and his words to my colleague (I wasn’t on it sadly)  we’re “do whatever it takes, cash is available now, we have no time to waste here” they’ve paid cash for everything to speed it up supply. They don’t want days while cheques clear money is there. 

we had an account opened and an order in excess of £700k placed and paid same day. We were cutting metal within 1 hour of the account being opened

6 hours ago, Stan said:

Links to the Peston tweets I brought up yesterday. UK firms not being asked by government for testing kits so they'll take their business elsewhere.

It's like the government choosing Dyson to make/produce ventilators for use when there are apparently UK-based companies who make ventilators for a living not being asked to produce them for NHS use...

read below re ventilators Dyson

5 hours ago, Harvsky said:

538 more deaths today in the UK.

Gone from being a week or so behind France on daily deaths to suddenly being a day behind.

Why the sudden and sharp increase?

We now switched to a policy of “save what you can, don’t attempt the impossible and send them to smaller hospitals to die“. As they do in Italy and Spain, we have to last the month now it’s going to be attritional for NHS frontline staff. 

All outpatient specialist hospitals have cancelled scheduled operations. The beds have been repurposed as makeshift ICU units without ventilators as this will be where elder patients with comorbidities are sent to die on morphine drops as they won’t be given ventilators as we really focus our ICU efforts on those more likely to survive in General hospitals & the surge hospitals. 
These outpatient staff from these specialist  hospitals are being retrained and reallocated to the Nightingale, NEC & Manchester to work ventilators. My mate was a battlefield medic in Iraq he was infantry that fell into it treating a colleague, specialised as an anaesthetist for hip operations when he left the army after his service. He’s been reallocated to the NEC 5,000 bed hospital to work ventilators. The local ice rink is preparing to store bodies. 
 

we will be around about 40-50k dead by the end of April guys theirs no getting away from it. It’s been apparent that it’s damage limitation now for the foreseeable future. 
 

they’re will be a long standing mental toll to this, PTSD for doctors & nurses. 

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Did Alok Sharma say there's no government plans for mass testing? 

Thought Boris and others were saying about 10k a day and 25k a day ? 

loads of my works kit in on all these ventilator projects so I’ll tell you all in detail who’s doing what in a couple of days once contracts are all signed and it’s made public knowledge but the ventilators are on the way we’ve (UK Government) spent millions and we’ve sorted out the commonwealth in the deal. It’s about a million ventilators by year end from several teams, some specifically designed to be made affordably and mass produced quickly so can be placed in small field hospitals in poorer countries like  the Sub continent and Africa. 

No ip has been protected on some I know we shared spec with Australia & New Zealand as they’re about a fortnight behind us in terms of RO to give them a head start with their own builds. We won’t make the start of our own peak in significant numbers but we’ll have them coming through to get mid peak going into nightingale type hospitals. 

from a supply chain point of view there’s been a few mistakes from the government but it’s down to ignorance of the technicalities of manufacturing rather than design they’ve literally moved mountains it’s a staggering effort, from them I’m genuinely impressed. 

I see lots of comments online about where’s the equipment etc, people just don’t understand supply chain in our country, for our manufacturing infrastructure we’ve gone faster than I believed possible. No government will ever admit it but we just don’t have the manufacturing capacity of Germany, China, US, Japan or Korea to dig us out the shit quickly, as we once had. 
What we have done though is innovate, We’ve got some brilliant engineers in this country.

regarding the cheap solution it’s here, it’s brilliant for what it is, it genuinely looks like it will save hundred of thousands if not millions of people worldwide. It’s been designed by oxford uni and doctors from king’s college London 

https://oxvent.org

Dyson are building to print for a medical professional outfit that have designed it. It’s a full ventilators not like what I’ve just linked. 

automobile manufacturing companies are mass producing ventilators for existing ventilator manufacturers who aren’t set up to produce hundreds of ventilators a month. One I know made 100 a month, they’re putting out 25,000 this month by subbing manufacturing to a car company that is building to print. There’s physically no way they could have done this without government pairing them up and providing the capital to get it moving. 

it’s monstrous we have Europe’s largest bank of a specific type of manufacturing machinery and it’s now running 24/7 for the next month to meet demand. This is a monstrous ramping up for us. 

there’s literally nothing that can be done that isn’t, being done I predicted end of May originally 2 weeks back  and they’ve done it by the 4-5th of April they’ve probably saved tens of it not hundreds of thousands of lives now it’s a huge effort. 
 

globally it will be millions, I know they worked 20 hour days not just the government but senior civil servants in the NHS and Sage to, tbh fuck the BBC journalists I think they’ve done brilliantly 
 

11 hours ago, CaaC (John) said:

As mentioned by @nudge a few days ago, we still have not heard from @Cicero since March 18th, I hope the guy is ok?

He’s active just maybe doesn’t want to chat. I spoke to an Italian colleague based just outside Milan on Thursday who described it as “a bit of a drama’ I left it thinking translation issues but it’s only really a massive problem if your wrapped up in it. Otherwise it’s a faff at the shops I suppose 

11 hours ago, Harvsky said:

13% of cases in Spain are also healthcare workers.

The great scandal in all of this when it is over is going to be how medical professionals didn't have the gear to be protected.

Virus load to will do for them disproportions also. 
on equipment  I’d bet a lot of it comes from China the west needs a rethink in outsourcing all manufacturing 

10 hours ago, nudge said:

A new virus is reported, China puts millions of people under quarantine.

Eastern Asia (a week later and with few own cases): this is serious, let's implement containment measures early on, even if it's restricting personal freedoms. 

Europe (two and half months later and with hundreds if not thousands infected in their own countries): let's gather in thousands for a Smurf festival, go on a holiday because it's cheap now, oh and don't forget to get that last cheeseburger before they close the joint because my non essential personal needs are obviously more important than anything else. 

We had plenty of time and there was enough information to react in order to contain it. Both the politicians and the general public screwed up completely. The former for downplaying the threat and failing to implement the required measures early on, the latter for being ignorant and unwilling to make small personal "sacrifices" for the benefit of society. 

 

 

The WHO also fucked up and we’re too slow to designate it was a pandemic when it was obvious and had been for at least 2-3 weeks

6 hours ago, Stan said:

209 have died in 24 hours in UK. 

1000+ cases in Midlands. 

And sadly a frontline NHS doctor has died after being diagnosed with the virus

 

 

This will kill quite a few NHS staff, look into virus load

8 hours ago, Harvsky said:

 

I think I’m right in saying that Germany don’t record covid  as the cause of death they record the underlying issue to the figures are skewed.

8 hours ago, Stan said:

US has surpassed China & Italy for having most positive cases. Absolutely rocketed past in such a short amount of time.

Just a hoax though.

Testing extensively is why I would say that Italy and Spain have over 100,000 cases easily. China I’d put money on 250,000 cases 

3 hours ago, Danny said:

Yeah been aware of doctors having to choose who lives and who doesn’t for a while, it’s sad for the family

Indeed it is. 

3 hours ago, Harvsky said:

But the country needs Sudoku right now!

Lots of Smiths in hospitals to tbh

14 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Booooooooo Europe. Yaaaaaaay sovereignty.

I saw they fined italy for state intervention and they plan to fine us for our state aid to prop up businesses, if true they can fuck off! 

5 minutes ago, Danny said:

A family friend has a daughter with severe learning difficulties and after reading into things if she goes into hospital and needs a ventilator she’ll only be given one if an able bodied/minded person doesn’t need it.

I posted this a few days back, it’s going to be harsh brutal decisions I’m afraid. 

9 hours ago, Harvsky said:

 

Surely it’s testing also Europe is geographically small I expect it to spread quickly throughout 

9 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Isn't it just a result of more developed countries having closer links with each other, more travel etc. And also that they have the means to diagnose it increasing the numbers? I cant imagine Niger and Uganda making it a massive priority to import thousands of coronavirus testing kits unless I'm just being woefully ignorant?

Africa will be badly hit, they just don’t know it yet

1 hour ago, IgnisExcubitor said:

After following voluntary curfew orders impeccably yesterday, idiots have come out from their houses. Men and women going out for walks. Children coming down to play. People roaming on bikes.

It is so infuriating to see this.

So I saw this Yesterday, I’m dubious about that stat as nothing in the article and nothing I can find online confirms it. But reading the article wouldn’t it be the same in none Muslim asian households where you have multiple generations in the same house? Because in the UK it is quite common for 3-4 generations of the same house among the asian demographic so isolation won’t work as they literally have all their eggs in one basket. Is this the same in India? 

11 hours ago, The Palace Fan said:

I hope we go in to lockdown to be honest. Crime figures in London dont appear to have changed. Driving to work yesterday I saw just as many cars as usual on the roads in areas like Streatham/Croydon/Mitcham and plenty of kids hanging round chicken shops. People just don't get the seriousness of being on the same trajectory as Italy.

Hanging outside chicken shops good grief what a shithole it has become 

9 hours ago, Stan said:

This man 

 

 

Tbh if it was 1-2% of pensioners you would take that now, harsh as it sounds. 

6 hours ago, Harry said:

I'm not agreeing with them but I would say that some times hard decisions need to be made when it is easier to take the nicer response.

I'd expect all leaders of all countries are reviewing some pretty decent situational analysis models, outlining different possible future states 18 months from now when a vaccine is finally developed.

Perhaps by that point the nation that just kept calm and carried on and let the virus rip through in three brutal months is faring better than the nation that locked all it's people away for the majority of 18 months. Perhaps the economy is better, and back on the way up, when the other nation has turned its entire populace agoraphobic, and suffers a prolonged economic depression, and entrained low productivity that takes a decade to fix and is ultimately far more destructive...

I don't know, but this could be a picture of the truth your not being told, and the reasons why those in power are doing what they are....

We’re easily in the most testing time since WW2 now and it’s not even got running yet, desperate times will mean brutal decisions sadly. 

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Absolute wet wipe of a comment. 

Good question by BBC Vicki Young saying why is it advising and not imposing action because clearly people aren't listening. 

 

They are though to some degree, I know loads isolating, I didn’t visit my mom today, last night me and the lads got pushed via house party app. It will slow down as we get deeper into it

1 hour ago, Harvsky said:

I don't think what he's saying there now matters. The people watching are those isolating. The french had to enforce lockdown because of a proportion of people not listening. We are a couple of days from that.

The ice cream van has just been down my street ffs.

Ice cream men up here are delivering bread and milk etc. 

2 hours ago, DeadLinesman said:

In related (kind of news), we only get immediate family at my mums funeral. It will be in the church, blessing, straight out and burial. No frills. Absolutely gutted for her, but soon they’ll be people not even getting that, so you’ve got to take the positives.

Sorry to hear that and for your loss 

42 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

 

Northern Italy went into lockdown March 8th, the rest of Italy March 9th.

My mate is a operating theatre technician for a specialist service hospital and they’ve allocated their role by covid response teams. Basically all special service hospitals will be where co morbidity (an existing illness that is potentially fatal) patients are transferred at a certain point to these hospitals out of general. The  aneathetists have been told  their role is to preside over them while their immune system helps them or they die. Prioritising like Italy will be for ventilators and icu to go to others based on criteria. 

to quote the Him “theres fuck all we’re going to be able to  do except watch them die, it causes sepsis of the lungs and at that point there’s fuck all they can do for you”  

I think we will be at 1000 by next Friday

4 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

1600 in intensive care in France. 50% are under 60. The obsession with age group fatality risks making people blind to how they can take up hospital beds. Stay in doors.

 

We’re socially distancing I was told not to take my boy for a hair cut today by the mrs. 
 

also the Mrs 10 mins later “go to B&Q and finish that job” 

I didn’t go lol 

On 20/03/2020 at 17:14, Dr. Gonzo said:

Fucking hell it's so grim in Italy.

The UK needs to lockdown before it gets that bad.

The harsh reality is because our economy is so service dependent they will attempt to ride it with ventilators and excess staff to get us operational ASAP. Our shutdown coincides with Easter holiday and they’re trying to get ahead of it to get most of us infected cured then back out again

on ventilators pitch’s go into NHS back end of next week, 70,000 to be built ASAP it is happening I’m just personally dubious we won’t be ready by the start of the peak which is estimated 2 weeks away. 

10 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Better thanks mate. Dry persistent cough still clinging on but feeling healthy otherwise.

I was I’ll start if feb I had 72 hours of fever and weak and a dry hacking none productive cough for 2 weeks after. I reckon it was this tbh but who knows I’m 34 fairly fit run approx 12miles a week none smoker but this took me out for a good 3-4 days

3 hours ago, Azeem said:

I used to buy from a company called isis they had a similar issue a few years back

14 hours ago, Inverted said:

Sometimes I try and calm myself by reminding myself that they have a very old population.Then I also think of the fact that their healthcare system is considered of the world's best. 

There is a slight feeling of dread coming on now. We're heading for some truly horrendous times. 

It’s now 60+ they’re not treating imagine that it’s working age 

14 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

People in the UK still don't seem to understand this and think stuff like closing schools is an overreaction or that it's alright to still go to the pub if you're not in the vulnerable group, or that stopping social gatherings isn't required if all over 70s are self isolating out of the way anyway.

It doesn't matter who gets it or whether they'll be fine. Everyone is likely to pass it on to at least 1 or 2 other people and it snowballs from there.

I really worry that too much of our population have the "it'll be fine" attitude because they've never lived through anything like this before and collective responsibility is an alien concept to too many of them. I hope I'm wrong.

We are a less tactile culture than Italy and the hope is our health system will cope. Personally the ventilators won’t be ready in time and we will suffer death due to not having equipment. 

This is going to kill more in the states than the standard mortality rate, the reason obesity if your diaphragm struggles anyway you’re fucked. 
 

saw today 3 out of a family of 11 are dead imagine that

I don’t think people truly appreciate the travesty that is unfolding in Italy. 
Basically their ICU Is overrun so they don’t have ventilators or beds to accommodate the Numbers requiring critical care. Because of this they’re going with below 70 years old and letting the 70+ die. 

its inflating the death rate because if beds and ventilators were available many of these people would be ok instead they’re dying in makeshift hospitals, literally drowning in their own lung fluid. Horrible situation and I feel for the Italians 

9 hours ago, IgnisExcubitor said:

This is not surprising. The world must not forget China's part in this pandemic, especially now when it's attempting a nice propaganda to whitewash it's terrible conduct during the initial outbreak in its countries.

We all know what happened to the whistleblower doctors.

 

I think it’s inevitable now China is going to come under quite a bit of international pressure to improve its sanitary standards because this isn’t the first time a flu pandemics have come out of their markets. 

I think it will also be used to justify trade wars and protectionism by all. This will wake countries up to the importance of supply chains for important resources. 
 

7 hours ago, Tommy said:

Angela Merkel called the corona virus our biggest challenge since World War II today. That should wake up the "iT's jUsT a fLu" people. 

bizarre choice of words you were the coronavirus in WW2 

perfectly timed so interesting given what’s going on

I saw plans to build 10,000 ventilators urgently by the government who are prepared to wave a lot of red tape to get it done ASAP then they want 10,000 drops each month to build us up to 100,000 by year end. They need 14,000 quickly though as they want 20,000 to cope with the first peak they expect in early April and have gone to medical specialist manufacturers not JCB. 

can’t put anymore as I shouldn’t really say all this it was all hush hush under NDA’s etc

In engineering terms though they haven’t fucked about it’s like when we went to Iraq it’s big money being spent quickly to get shit done in fairness they have legitimate drawings and specifications and they aren’t worried about price, it’s about speed and quality 

I won’t name companies etc but I know medical ventilator companies in the U.K. and have worked with them on ventilators in the past. 
 

this idea that JCB could bang out medical ventilators in a week is madness, there’s rigorous testing and accreditation’s that need to be adhered to. It’s a PR stunt nothing more, bluntly we won’t be able to meet demand it’s too late