RandoEFC

I didn't realise I'd lost three in a row. Then I've gone and lost my £25 bet by a single corner. Going to be going some now to end the season anywhere near profitable.

Exactly 8 corners at Turf Moor .

I'll take this for the next week and fuck it you can put the £25 down. 16/18 of Burnley's league games have seen 9 or more corners this season. Liverpool have in 15/18 and have had 7, 8, 8 in the games that didn't hit 9. This bet has also hit in all of their past six meetings. Ipswich have scored at least twice in all of their 11 home games this season. They've also conceded in 9 out of 11. Leicester have scored in 10 of their 11 away games this season and have kept just two clean sheets, one of those all the way back in the first away game of the season. The stats on this make a mockery of the price but there is a slight concern that it'll be a cagey affair between the top two in the league or that Leicester might blow Ipswich away like Leeds did yesterday but I'm hoping Ipswich are a bit more competitive with home advantage. £25 > £56.35 if it wins.

A poor 0-0 draw at Queen's Park for Dundee Utd puts me on -£10. Union Saint Gilloise won at Eupen but only by a goal anyway.

Slightly down this season. Slightly up over the last month. I still keep changing my method. The maths background takes me so far but knowing which bets to choose is something that still needs work. I'm still experimenting. I keep meaning to start trying something different in this thread because in my general betting I'm doing better on corners and cards than I am on goals or match results/Asian handicaps.

This is not related to the game but I swear I'm going to hate these Doxa pricks for life .

Two away teams for me this time. Queen's Park are in stinking form and winless in 12 since they won their first three games of the season. They've lost 4 of their last 6 at home, 3 of those by more than a goal. They host promotion chasing Dundee Utd who suffered their first league defeat of the season just last weekend. Relegated from the Premier League last season, Dundee Utd have won 6 of their 7 away games so far this season, only failing at league leaders Raith, and 4 of those wins have been by more than a goal. Dundee Utd also won their previous meeting this season 4-1. Surprised by this price to be honest. My second pick is a much shorter price but the best price of any of my 'dead certs' for the next few days of football. Eupen are on a run of just 1 win in 13 and have slipped into the Belgian Pro League relegation spots after a strong start to the season. 7 of their 10 losses during this run have been by 2 or more goals. Union Saint Gilloise are flying with 11 wins and a draw from their last 12 games putting them 8 points clear at the top of the league. They've won by more than a goal in 4 of their last 6 away games and, like Dundee Utd, can brag a 4-1 win against this opponent earlier on this season.

@Michael enters the Hall of Fame for a third time. His Last Man Standing honour roll now reading as follows: 2019-2020 La Liga Winner 2021-2022 Premier League Winner 2023-2024 Bundesliga Winner

With podium finishes in both rounds so far, @6666 and defending champion @nudge move to joint 1st in the standings. Despite scoring 0 points in the second round, @Viva la FCB's mammoth 12 point score from Round One leaves him one point of the early leaders.

I know it's a small thing but I heard in passing last weekend Jamie Redknapp claim that Richarlison's best performances for Everton came when he played down the middle which is the total opposite of the truth because he always excelled on the left for us and was wasted and isolated at centre forward. It's just evidence of the double standards. Joey Barton posted a full breakdown of what was wrong with the woman's commentary on the Doucoure goal for us against Chelsea but a male pundit comes out with something that isn't based in any research or reality and nobody gives a shit. Redknapp knows he can get away with punditry that sounds believable without having to back it up whereas any female pundit or commentator gets scrutinised over the most innocuous comments. It's just so obvious when you can see it.

Doxa Katokopias before I'd ever heard of them: Doxa Katokopias when I make a not even risky bet against them:

I don't know what the situation is so I won't pretend to. There's not much point trying to understand money in football nowadays because it's all a web of dodgy hedge funds, dodgy agent payments, dodgy sponsorship deals and business contacts doing each other dodgy favours behind closed doors. At the moment, none or very few of the people who tend to have their finger on the pulse seem to be worried so I'm not worried for now. If the 777 deal falls through, there's also plenty of murmurs that there are other potential buyers waiting in the wings to snap up a Premier League club at a "bargain" price because Moshiri is desperate to get out. Whatever happens happens. If Everton are headed for administration and end up a phoenix club in division 32 then worrying about it and reading into every article that prophesies the potential for further doom and despair isn't going to stop it.

I've known the esk guy to be very well informed on some occasions but also not on others. Very intelligent and clued up on the financial side of things but also has his agendas. These articles are always full of ifs, buts and maybes. Until it reaches David Ornstein, Paul Joyce, "The Bobble", Fabrizio etc, it should all be taken with a pinch of salt.

Click bait.

Rijeka ️

There are some ridiculous track records across the European leagues that I've come across but with 1 point from 14 games, Doxa of Cyprus have to be near the very worst. 11 of their 13 defeats in the league this season have been by more than a goal. Aris Limassol are sat 4th in the league and their away form is a mixed bag but I think odds of 1.5 are generous here. Aris also won their first meeting earlier in the season although it was only by a single goal. Rudes of Croatia absolutely fall into the same category as Doxa for hilariously bad records and I think I've bet against them basically every weekend this season since I started trawling the wider leagues. No wins and four draws in eighteen league games, seven goals scored and thirty eight conceded. Rijeka are 3rd in the league with 6 wins from 9 home games, although they have had a couple of poor results with just a point from their last couple at home. With just 10 teams in the Croatian top flight, this is already their third meeting of the campaign. Rijeka won 4-0 at home and 2-1 at Rudes in their previous meetings. Don't be dicks, Rijeka.

If they do manage to improve with a new manager then fair enough but they're just as likely to end up sliding back into a relegation scrap and all I'm saying is that it would be quite funny if they did that again after deciding they're too good for David Moyes, a man who they've twice had to call upon to improve them when they've managed to nearly get themselves relegated, again. You can mock the "Intertoto" cup as well but that's probably the best achievement West Ham have had in most of their fans' whole lives.

I didn't really realise there was a prospect of Moyes not renewing at West Ham. If their fans are really bemoaning the style of football then you can only laugh at how short their memories are. They already turned their nose up at Moyes once because of the style of play after he saved them from one relegation, they plunged themselves back into a relegation fight and had to go crawling back to him again. He's since taken them back to Europe, won them an actual trophy and has them as an established top half team amongst the likes of Brighton. If their board and/or their fans want to get rid of him again because of a "style of football" then I'm sorry but if they end up plummeting back down the table into a relegation battle then they deserve to be laughed at.

I should think that if Potter was offered any Championship job right now then he'd probably just hold out a bit longer given that Forest have a manager on the brink in the Premier League with very little actual risk of relegation and ending up in the Championship anyway.

I thought Stoke were going quite hard to get Potter. Has there been any further news on that? I thought that might be a touch ambitious for a Championship side given how well he did before the career suicide of taking Chelsea over.

Cooper couldn't really complain but nor could their owner. Their scattergun recruitment policy has disaster written all over it. Signing more players than you could physically register to play Premier League football last season is just flat-out unprofessional. Luckily for them, they threw so much shit at the wall that just enough of it managed to stick for them to stay up. Their home form saved them because as bad as Everton, Leeds and Leicester were, I think Forest's team was pound-for-pound worse than all three. I can see them eventually coming in for some of the same grief we've had to deal with financially as well after all the money they've thrown at it since promotion, and I dread to think the mess they'd be in if they go down. They're only potential saving grace might be if they've managed to give reasonable contracts (wages not too high and duration not too long) to their recent signings otherwise they'll have players sat on hefty Premier League wages refusing to leave because nobody else will pay them, many of them probably not even playing regularly.

My bet lost. Al Ain took a nice early lead then got a red card 5 minutes later. Went 2-1 down then their opponents got a red card as well before half-time and Al Ain were only able to get back to 2-2 in the second half when it was ten against ten.

It's funny because my Mum was literally the admin of a website for a Football League team for most of my childhood and teen years. She was paid to report on football, interview the manager and players and type up match reports. Okay, it wasn't exactly deep tactical analysis but it was professional work in football. It has always confused me as a result that when she sees Alex Scott and Co on television that her reaction is the same as you'd expect from your balding (no offence Phil) middle-aged pub bore. "Oh for gods sake, it's like it's compulsory to have a woman covering every game now." I don't understand it at all because she should be better placed than almost anyone, anywhere, to know that a woman is just as capable of reporting on men's football as a man is. My response is always the same. I ask whether Paul Merson or Graeme Souness or X, Y and Z offer better analysis than Alex Scott or their other female colleagues. The thing is, it's good to have first hand experience in your punditry team, that is a part of it. Neville and Carragher are good at bringing their own experience to help explain what we're watching in games, for example. But you should also be looking to provide other sorts of insight into your coverage, including commentary that can be exciting and well-informed and good tactical analysis. There are people who were Premier League footballers who don't know much at all about tactics and others who gave up at Sunday league level in their 20s who can analyse patterns of play and tactics better than almost anyone. If you want to find people who "really know football" very well, look at the scouting departments at big football clubs. People who are absolute experts in analysing players to see if they have the skills needed to eventually improve the team that employs them, or at least represent a good opportunity for transfer profit in the future. How many of these people used to be professional footballers? Vanishingly few, to the best of my knowledge. It just goes to show, you don't need to have first hand experience to provide good insight. It's one of many aspects that might help but beyond that, there's no reason why men or women (or even former professionals or amateurs) should be any more or less well-placed than others to know what they're talking about in a studio covering a football match.

I think what Whiskey is saying and I agree is that there are a hundred thousand reasons why Joey Barton isn't worth listening to and the fact that he has 12 minutes of international football isn't really up there. He's a tit with small man syndrome just like Andrew Tate, Laurence Fox and all the other knuckle dragging incel types with a sad cult following online.

Pushing the odds up a bit here. The St Pauli game is top vs bottom in the second tier in Germany. I think the generous price here comes from Osnabruck being slightly less hopeless at home but they've still lost 5 out of 8. St Pauli are unbeaten in the league all season and unbeaten in 9 away games including 6 wins. They haven't been dishing out hammerings but given how likely it is for them to win at Osnabruck and at least secure a refund, I'm happy to take these odds. The second selection comes from the UAE. Al Ittihad have lost three of their five home games this season. If you include last season it's one win in eleven at home. Al Ain are 3rd in the league and have won 9 of their last 12 on the road.