RandoEFC

British government and French fishermen now engaging in passive aggressive posturing around Jersey following changes to post-Brexit fishing allowances. I don't think it'll develop into anything of real significance but it does highlight what a successful peace project the European Union has been for the past few decades.

Three polls out this morning, all pointing to landslide Tory wins over Labour in the three key battlegrounds - Hartlepool by-election, Tees Valley mayor and West Midlands mayor. Not good reading for Keir Starmer, if these polls are anything like accurate it points to those who voted for Brexit Party last time mostly flocking to the Tories, he's lost a bit of support on the 'left' but those voters aren't going to the Conservatives and even with them still on board, it isn't enough to make the difference. He's also failing to make any significant inroads in the much-discussed Brexit/Red Wall vote so it's not like he's gaining much of 'the right/centre' to make up for the (often overstated but still existent) losses on the 'left'. However, the national polls have shifted in Labour's favour in the past week, with the exception of YouGov. Could lead to council gains in other parts of the country. It also looks like Anas Sarwar is going down as a relative success in Scotland and might see them beat the Tories to 2nd place there but it's far from a given. Some solace if those things come to pass but it's not enough really. If Labour do take a pounding as expected in those three key battlegrounds and the smaller success in other parts of the country isn't apparent, Starmer could come under a lot of pressure from within the party. Sadly, a lot of prominent pro-Labour commentators are too obsessed with using poor Labour results in these elections to somehow vindicate Jeremy Corbyn's train crash election performance, while the most vocal critics of Corbyn are using the damage he did to the party's reputation as an excuse to cover up what will be a failure on the current leadership's part to make any significant gains this week. Both 'wings' of the party need to get their shit together and focus on making an offer to the public that will get them elected. The biggest problem is winning back the Northern working class vote. These voters feel betrayed by Labour and see the Conservatives as the party who delivered on their priorities because of Brexit. We might disagree with those sentiments but that's how they feel. They also haven't forgotten some of the comments by Remain Labour MPs at the time about Farage and other pro-Brexit figures being 'foul racists' and whatever else. I don't know what Labour can offer this vital constituency because they don't really care about what Corbyn was fighting for and Starmer's attempts to move the conversation on from Brexit haven't won them over yet either. Andy Burnham is the only figurehead that comes to mind as someone who gives off the impression of standing up for your ordinary man or woman whilst also having solid leadership qualities but there's not much else there. It's a long road ahead for Labour and anyone who wants to see a progressive government in this country. I don't think it's impossible that Starmer can build a coalition in time but he needs to show some progress and poor results on Thursday will only undermine his authority. The problem is that it doesn't look as if that road is going to feel any shorter than it did 18 months ago when the Conservatives won a crushing majority. I like the bloke myself but he needs more than people like me to win an election or even make significant gains in 2024. We can't go another four years only for the Tories to win another majority and the progressive parties to pretty much go back to square one.

That in itself is a stereotype though, people see the world differently in a litany of different ways for different and valid reasons. I still dislike the use of terms like left wing and right wing. Conservatism has plenty of redeeming qualities, the value of family, meritocracy and opportunity. It's important to acknowledge that. The current Conservative government in the UK are more focussed on other things though, such as convincing people like UNIQUE that people who would like to see asylum seekers given help in a country as rich as ours and want to have a Prime Minister with a shred of honesty and integrity about him are somehow self-interested, unpatriotic and "woke" which has been weaponised as the 2020s equivalent of 'political correctness gone mad'. I don't know if it's just British people or whether it's a human condition but we seem to take basically no convincing to turn on each other and blame each other for all of our problems. It's pretty tedious but you can see how it appeals to people.

It's hard to know how accurate these things are at the moment. Labour and Lib Dems have had leadership changes since they last published a manifesto.

Saw this and decided to go and do one myself. Unsurprising really. I usually get closer to Green than Labour.

I see "woke" has made an appearance now. Surprised it took this long.

More of them stay in France than come to the UK, and that was the case long before Brexit too. Why should we not do our bit just because of geography? You and I are lucky enough to have been born in a rich, developed country with endless opportunity. Others have completely different circumstances through no fault of their own. The lives of an overwhelming majority of the population aren't impacted at all by immigrants, mine certainly never has been. I doubt yours has either although I might be incorrect. We have one of the biggest economies in the world, it's not unreasonable in the 21st century that we should be expected to take a little bit extra strain to help people less fortunate than ourselves.

The whole 'asylum seekers stopping in the first safe country' argument is actually insane. Just pause for a second and actually think about what that would look like in South and South East Europe.

I name foreign policy specifically because of the announcements over the past few days of reductions in foreign aid. I'll balance it by saying that the one bit of foreign policy I did like was offering asylum to citizens of Hong Kong. I don't see why that logic applies to those asylum seekers and not others though. This thread has been derailed by British politics enough times though, which has it's own thread, so I'll leave it at that despite there being a lot more to say.

Yes (well I voted for my local Labour MP at the time more than Corbyn) but what does it matter? The current Prime Minister is a known liar and adulterer, this is a matter of fact and record, not an opinion. It shames me to see him elevated to the highest office in the land and represent us on the world stage because I care about the UK and believe the country is better than him. I'm optimistic that one day we'll see sense again and choose someone with integrity and honesty as our leader, be it a Labour or Conservative leader. Johnson's tenure and a lot of our domestic and foreign policy under his government won't be looked back on kindly.

I got Pfizer first dose earlier this week. Seems the Isle of Man suddenly overtook the UK about a month ago. No side effects this time. Apparently it's more likely on the second dose.

Updated to add @Mel81x for his first round win and @Viva la FCB, the dominant force in LMS, winning the original World Cup edition and two out of three league campaigns.

Congratulations to @Viva la FCB, champion again, two years on from winning the Last Man Standing League's inaugural competition. Consistency won out this season, with @Viva la FCB surviving long enough to bag bonus points in all but one round, on that occasion falling victim to the infamous Marseille Massacre of Round 5. @Mel81x climbs to 2nd place with his win in Round Seven having been the runner-up in three other rounds this year, the same amount as 3rd-placed @...Dan, who couldn't quite overhaul the league leader and fell just short of claiming a win of his own. @CaaC (John) would have been right in the mix if he'd taken part in the first two Gameweeks, the only man to win multiple rounds this season, he also gained 2 extra points from Round 3 which I had somehow overlooked at the time - this has now been amended. A special mention too to @Rucksackfranzose who picked up the biggest single points haul this season with his six correct picks delivering him victory in the Eredivisie's Round 6. As for the other end of the table, @Batard's one week cameo in the Premier League edition sees him lead the field in 'points per round' - quit while you're ahead, I suppose! Meanwhile @Pyfish and @Stan suffer the ignominy of finishing joint last, of those players who took part in every round. Thanks again for playing this season folks, we'll be back for the Euros during the summer and then business as usual for the 2021-22 season.

Fair enough, I knew the Mail had recently changed editor to what certain parts of social media refer to a "bitter Remoaner" but I'm not fully aware of the ownership. If it isn't Murdoch it's one of the others that have historically backed Johnson/Tories though. I'm not saying that I'd put the chance of him being bumped at 50% or more either, but I do think it's a real possibility. Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove at the very least have made no secret of their leadership ambitions in the past, and there are plenty of others who have stood before or will fancy their chances. It's a game to these people, they all want to be Head Boy and they'll happily grass their best mates up to the headteacher if they think it'll benefit them. Gove has literally done this to Johnson before. As for Trump, he acted as if he brushed off scandal after scandal, and the two attempts to impeach him both ultimately went nowhere, but let's not forget he lost Republican control of the house, the senate and the presidency in a single term in office. Perhaps he would have won again if the pandemic hadn't struck, but the pandemic highlighted the key aspect of populism that is common to Trump and (to a lesser extent) Johnson - it doesn't deliver results. There are Trumpian elements to Johnson in that he and this government have brushed off countless scandals that would have brought down previous governments overnight, because there's something about his personality that makes people not want to believe it, not want to think about it, I don't really know what it is because it's not a feeling I've had towards him, but it has its limits. People might tell themselves now, and for another couple of years, that they love it, but they will get bored eventually. Even Trump eventually got overwhelmed by negative headlines, and Johnson is a small fry compared to him, he's playing with a weaker hand in my opinion, and he's easier to replace under our electoral system if things start to go south. I don't think it'll be the Labour Party who take him down at or before the next general election, they have too much work to do to repair their reputation and they're not doing it quickly enough at the moment. It'll be Johnson himself or one of the snakes on his doorstep that do it. This latest series of attacks just seems all a bit too convenient for me, this stuff isn't getting leaked at random, it feels like a coordinated smear campaign, and it's against the Prime Minister himself for the most part rather than the government or the Conservative party. It's all slotting in too nicely with Labour's "Tory sleaze" attack line to be a coincidence. Downing Street even briefed the Mail on Sunday last weekend about a Labour 'mole'. The timing of most of the comments incidents in question and the fact that they're coming out now is suspect. A potential challenger for the leadership trying to temporarily damage the Conservative vote in the upcoming local elections and parliamentary by-election in Hartlepool so Johnson doesn't reaffirm his popularity with the party membership with more electoral success? It's a theory. Too many unknowns still to be more than speculation. As for the smoking gun, we'll see. I don't know about audio recordings, that's pure speculation I think, but Dominic Cummings claimed to have WhatsApp messages that corroborate the claims made in his statement last Friday and looking at how rattled Boris Johnson was yesterday, let's say I've seen him in a "we both know I did it but we both know you can't prove it" mode in the past. I've never seen him as angry and wound up as he was yesterday, it's another sign that, for me, points to the fact that he's genuinely worried about what someone somewhere has or at least might have on him, whether it's WhatsApp messages, recordings or something else. Still a lot to come out in this latest episode I think. I'm just hoping it cuts through enough to hand Labour a bit of success and momentum in the local elections because Starmer really needs a launchpad of some sort. The success of the vaccine rollout has really scuppered his and Labour's progress.

The attacks on Johnson aren't really coming directly from the opposition. Everything that's being thrown at him now has been leaked by either Downing Street staff (probably including but not limited to Cummings), civil service or cabinet members, either incriminating claims or tip-offs that are leading to well-placed Freedom of Information requests from hostile parties. The fact that the Daily Mail led the charge over the 'bodies piled high' comments is interesting and has caused a lot of speculation about Michael Gove (perceived to be Murdoch's man and whose wife works for the DM) being behind some of these attacks. It does seem coordinated and the timing ahead of the local elections doesn't seem accidental, but Gove seems too obvious to me. That judgement isn't based on anything other than how not straightforward anything political in the UK has been in recent years. My gut instinct at the moment is that Johnson will ride it out. I do think there are recordings, witnesses, further evidence, some sort of smoking gun out there, it just depends on whether those who have possession of them think this is the right time to fully declare war. If he does ride this out though, he'll get taken down eventually because he's managed to string a good few months together of hiding the "let the bodies pile up" side of his personality and ridden the wave of the vaccine success, but he can't change who he is. Johnson's supporters will tell themselves after this latest disruption that "that's it" but there will be another wave in a few months, and again, and again, and eventually it'll take its toll. I think there's a decent chance his bubble will burst before the next general election.

Someone is going for Boris Johnson's throat. The quote is sickening but it doesn't teach us anything about the man that we didn't know. Every time you sort of forget about it you get reminded just how dark a point the UK is currently living through in our history with this incompetent and amoral man child elevated to our highest office. Whether it's these latest scandals that bring him down or something else, history won't look kindly upon him or the UK for allowing him and his cabal to be in charge.

Wow. Getting attacked by the Mail and Cummings rearing his head on Friday night with some pretty explosive accusations. There were reports today that up to 6 ministers were putting teams together in case a leadership election is on the horizon. We're a long way from that point but reading the detail of the Johnson-Symonds-Cummings psychodrama, someone is going to end up with a serious bloody nose when all of this shakes out and it could well be Johnson himself.

Not really arsed either way about this as long as we remember it when the teams who have signed up for it start crying about the League Cup being scrapped because they have too many games.

Count Binface is generally polling at level with Laurence Fox at 1% . Next time Fox is on Question Time complaining about how he's been cancelled and "no-platformed" by the world, I hope somebody suggests that we should get Count Binface on for an appearance for the sake of the "balance" that Fox and his weird Reclaim/Reform/ifyoureallythinkaboutitmiddleagedwhitemenlikemearetherealvictimsinallthis following seem to treasure so much. Speaking of the free speech (but only if we agree with it) brigade, you simply won't believe how much Emma Webb of the Free Speech Union believes in everybody being able to express themselves free of censoring: I'm not even annoyed, this lot are just objectively fascinating and hilarious.

Yes, I dont have up to date figures but last I read it's about 3.5 times harder now to buy a house before you turn 30 than it was a few decades ago.

What's the deal with this scary-sounding Indian "double mutation"? It sounds pretty concerning and there's some rumblings about it dodging its way around some of the currently available vaccines. Now I don't doubt that (hopefully) the worst case scenario is that a few tweaks to the vaccines will be needed and we'll all need boosters but it does threaten the exit strategy of the UK and US and other major European countries not long after, so in the short term, potentially a game changer. This thread is usually more informative than the news and social media so @nudge, you're up.

It depends what you mean by anti-Chinese. From what you've said, I've taken it as more that she's very sceptical of China, the country and their government, etc. If she's actually prejudiced against people of a Chinese/Asian ethnic background then yes that would be a pretty major concern. I think quite a large proportion of their generation think it's okay to say stuff like that. It doesn't make them bad people. From their point of view, they're a lot more tolerant than their own parents' and grandparents' generations and they've passed on the world to us in a better state than it was in terms of tolerance and equality when they were our age. That also doesn't make it okay, but when people get to that age I just think it's basically impossible to influence their world view. And most of the time, their world view is more that it's okay to make comments like that, not that they actually hold serious prejudice against minorities. As long as they don't go around saying stuff to peoples' faces or acting on those views in any way, I think you have to take that as a win. If it's something you feel that you want or need to do something about, I think you're better off trying to positively influence your mates and people in your own generation, and doing your best to set a good example to the ones that follow.

She sounds more like one of those people who gets scared by things she doesn't understand and probably reads the Sun/Mail which doesn't help. You'd get booted out for expressing racist views explicitly if you were a teacher. That's not what I'd call any of the stuff you've said she thinks though. To be honest, if you're a teacher and you think stuff like this then you're probably smart enough to keep it to yourself. I couldn't describe the political/world views of many of even my close colleagues to be honest. It doesn't really come up ordinarily. I did have a Head of Maths when I was in my first year who said she was voting in favour of Brexit because "we were great once, we'll be great again". It's a very, very far cry from racism, but it does demonstrate that just being a teacher doesn't mean you'll be any more or less educated or ignorant on political/international/worldly issues than anyone else. Regardless of whether you have progressive or conservative views though, it very rarely has any impact on the kids or what happens in the classroom.

They won't have made a net benefit, their economy might be bigger now than it was pre-Covid, but without Covid happening, it would be even bigger than it is now. Where she might have a point is that China will have taken less of a hit than other countries because of their culture and government allowing them to have a shorter lockdown and no further major outbreaks. E.G. UK over the whole of 2020 economy contracted by about 10% compared to 2019: So if you want to treat economic growth as some sort of competition then yes, you could argue that China took the smallest hit of the major economies, so they benefitted relative to the rest of the world, but they didn't actually benefit in real terms, if that makes sense.

Their growth returned to a positive rate in the second quarter of 2020 (so from end of March to end of June their economy grew) and by the end of last year was pretty much back up to pre-Covid growth rate. Slight caveat that the source for this information could potentially be susceptible to pressure/manipulation by the Chinese government but in this instance I don't see any reason to doubt it and the BBC have seen fit to publish it.