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Will Uruguay Miss Out on the World Cup?

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Warning, long post incoming.

 

So after today's Ireland loss, it hit me that Uruguay really are in danger of missing the world cup. Sure it was just a friendly but in everything this makes it 4 straight defeats. 

So here's a bit of a background. Why has this run come to place? Well I'll admit I was a bit overawed at some of the results they were getting without Suarez... 3-0 vs Chile and Colombia were the main 2. As time went on, I began to realize that this team isn't that good and that's not because of the squad. The culprit of this run is the primitive tactics of the once legendary but now aging Tabarez. They rely too heavily on set pieces and long balling it to Suarez and Cavani. They don't exactly play to their strengths and just hope that one of them will get it and score a goal. Mexico were the first to show them up and after them, they basically lost their luck and began losing a whole bunch of games. So there's the issue, its not simply about having "squad quality" as on paper, they are one of the best teams in the world.

The table

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4 games left, and I personally think they will drop points in 3 of them.

Uruguay - Argentina

Paraguay - Uruguay

Venezuela - Uruguay

Uruguay - Bolivia

 

Uruguay will get the 3 points in Bolivia, so if they lose in the other 3 games, that MAY be enough for them to qualify but I can see it being from 5th again. I think they will lose against Sampaoli's Argentina and will lose one of the Paraguay or Venezuela games and draw the other. Those aren't easy games, especially not if you play Tabarez' way.

Peru and Paraguay have a shot at making it into the top 5. Peru are playing some brilliant football at the moment and can beat anyone on their day. Paraguay are pretty awful but their style of play is annoying to deal with and that's how they have 18 points at the moment, just playing their natural game. "La Paraguaya". They are no mugs.

Peru's next 4 games

 

Peru - Bolivia

Ecuador - Peru

Argentina - Peru

Peru - Colombia

 

As a Peruvian, I am confident we will win both home games. If we beat Bolivia and Uruguay lose, then the pressure will be on as we will be 2 points behind. Unfortunately, I think both our away games will be a little too much for us. Playing in Quito is extremely difficult, regardless of how bad Ecuador have become. I'm not too confident on that one. If Argentina still had Bauza, perhaps we could have gotten something out of that, but with Sampaoli, I have no hope in winning. I am 80% sure we will beat Colombia as I believe us to be better than them at this moment. 

Paraguay's next 4 games

Chile vs Paraguay

Paraguay vs Uruguay

Colombia vs Paraguay

Paraguay vs Venezuela

 

This one is a tough one. Again, Paraguay have been awful for the most part but their style of play is usually enough to get results. Out of those, I'm sure they will lose in Chile. IF they win though and Uruguay lose, then the pressure will be on as they will be obligated to win or not lose. It also depends on how Peru does. Paraguay have a funny record vs Colombia. They are awful at home against them, and usually win over there, and since Colombia have been embarrassing for the most part, its not an easy one to call.

Paraguay vs Venezuela should be a home win, but Venezuela have improved and will look to not finish bottom so I wouldn't say they have nothing to play for.

Chile's next 4 games

Chile vs Paraguay

Bolivia vs Chile

Chile vs Ecuador

Brazil vs Chile

 

I'm 100% sure Chile will qualify so I don't think they are much threat to Uruguay. They have favourable games aside from the last one. They have a great record in La Paz, so even that game vs Bolivia they should win.

Argentina's next 4 games

Uruguay vs Argentina

Argentina vs Venezuela

Argentina vs Peru

Ecuador vs Argentina

 

If Argentina beat Uruguay, Los Charruas should turn their focus to Peru, Paraguay and Ecuador. Argentina will probably lose to Ecuador but I can see them win their first 3 games.

 

Lastly, Ecuador's next 4 games

Brazil vs Ecuador

Ecuador vs Peru

Chile vs Ecuador

Ecuador vs Argentina


Ecuador COULD qualify for the world cup, but if they fail to get a result against Peru then they can forget it. They'll lose in Brazil and I think they'll lose in Chile. They should however beat Argentina.

 

So long posts, aside (a post that will probably look silly if Uruguay beat Argentina), do you think Uruguay will miss out on the world cup?

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I personally think they will scrape it.

Will have to play the playoff to qualify again, which will be disappointing for them after getting so many good results later on. I really think for the sake of South America, Peru should qualify. I don't just say that because I want to see us in a world cup, but we've proven in the Copa America's to be a good cup team and we're playing better football than Los Charruas at the moment. Uruguay, Ecuador and Paraguay won't make it past their group, where as I can see us do so.  I'd even give Venezuela a higher chance to go through their group than those 3, if I'm honest.

I don't have a lot of faith in South America for this next world cup. I think the best performances would come from Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Colombia. Colombia have also been bloody awful but I actually believe they'll be back to their best if they qualify.

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I think it'd be several times more humorous if it happened to Argentina.

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I actually thought that they'd miss out before the qualification campaign started, but then they proved me wrong by speeding out of the blocks and racking up the points.

They are the experts and seasoned veterans of the world cup inter-continental qualifying play-off (those qualifiers against Australia in 2001 and 2005 were amazing occasions), and I expect them to make their 5th consecutive repechage appearance.

As I said recently on another thread, while Tabarez has of course done a fantastic job overall during his reign there, I do think that he is actually now holding the team back with his long ball tactics and team/squad selections, in-particular not giving more of their exciting crop of young players more of an opportunity instead of out-of form veterans. 

Then again I have to admire Uruguay, as the fact that country of 3.5 million people (and they are the comfortably the smallest and least populous CONMEBOL nation to boot) is so successful in the most popular sport in the world is just an amazing story. 

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More people would be shocked if Argentina missed out. For all Uruguay's historical success in World Cups, in the modern day there are always some countries of their standard that don't qualify. Bigger news in South America obviously than worldwide. 

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1 minute ago, RandoEFC said:

More people would be shocked if Argentina missed out. For all Uruguay's historical success in World Cups, in the modern day there are always some countries of their standard that don't qualify. Bigger news in South America obviously than worldwide. 

I agree that it would be a bigger shock if Argentina don't qualify, but on paper Uruguay still have one of the best teams in the world. Count that with the superb results they got at the start and then missing the World Cup would be a shock.

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Just now, LaSambadeStGermain said:

I agree that it would be a bigger shock if Argentina don't qualify, but on paper Uruguay still have one of the best teams in the world. Count that with the superb results they got at the start and then missing the World Cup would be a shock.

Definitely, all I'm saying is that outside of South America not that many people would be like "where the fuck are Uruguay" if they didn't qualify. Not the worldwide giants that Argentina are who are also at risk of not getting in. 

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2 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Definitely, all I'm saying is that outside of South America not that many people would be like "where the fuck are Uruguay" if they didn't qualify. Not the worldwide giants that Argentina are who are also at risk of not getting in. 

While I see what your saying, I think it's a bit mixed here. I can definitely see people from other continents saying "where are Uruguay" because of the team they have. High profile players like Suarez and Godin. Obviously not to the extent of Argentina missing it but I think you get where I'm coming from now.

In South America, the only real shock is them falling apart like they currently are, because most people actually predicted Uruguay to miss 2018. I was one of them I'll admit, and the Uruguayans were the biggest pessimists. I can certainly understand why they want Tabarez out. He was a great manager in his prime but now he just long balls it to Suarez and Cavani and doesn't give the next generation a chance.

For example, Uruguay had a great U20 team in 2013 and now they have another great team. Yet, he's sticking with the same team from 2010 with a couple of differences. There are better midfielders than Arévalo Rios and the best example is Cebolla Rodriguez. He's over 31, can barely run and is playing in the Uruguayan league after doing nothing for Independiente. Its actually sad how primitive they have become tactically. 

I think Uruguay will qualify for the World Cup but they won't do anything of note.

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