RandoEFC

Such a good bit of shithousery here.

This just isn't true though is it? You're putting it this way to make it sound worse than it is and possibly winding yourself up more by doing so, and that's my problem with these posts. They're not isolating because of a runny nose, they're isolating because continuing to mix in classrooms of 20-30 other kids allows them to pass the virus on to another 10 kids who will take it home to their parents and then on it goes to their workplaces. Hopefully less so with increasing vaccination rates but still. I get that schools closing down should be unpalatable and only deployed as a last resort but I'll get cross about it if and when that happens. I agree with the majority of what you're saying but asking them to take two weeks off when they have a highly transmissible virus isn't an unreasonable sacrifice. The technology available to schools to allow them to keep up with the work even during that two week period is pretty good now as well. As for the long term consequences, I totally agree and you can see the start of it now, I think I posted about it at length a few pages back. Schools are pretty much always at war with circumstances beyond our control, deteriorating standards of mental health, ill-equipped parents, funding cuts, distracting smart phones, unnecessary curriculum reforms, etc. Covid is the latest one and it's by far the worst yet, we will fight on day to day and drag the kids back up to scratch eventually (from an academic perspective at least, the social and personal development costs are a whole other kettle of fish) but governments will have to face up to the fact at some point that they're going to have to pour a fuck tonne of money into supporting this generation if they want these problems solved. In the UK I'm not holding my breath because they already turned their nose up at the findings of the education 'tsar' that they employed to review what needed to be done to get kids caught up. Even he, a supposed 'friendly' appointment made by the government fed a number back to them that they really didn't want to hear so they ignored him and he went on to resign. I dread to think what the real number is to make up for some of this lost time.

Gathering pace on Twitter. Shouldn't be downhearted about us signing anyone to be honest, but it will accelerate rumours that Digne is off to Juventus or Chelsea. Again absolutely mystified as to what the owner sees in this manager that makes him worth not just keeping in charge of the team but tolerating the complete alienation of the rest of the board, the fanbase, the scouting team, at least a part of the medical team, and now one of our key players to keep him happy because he dared to express his frustration over the tactics that had the club in its worst run in 20 years.

Yes let's keep getting ourselves wound up about school closures that haven't happened and are incredibly unlikely to happen just because of one story that schools are choosing to be prepared just in case (because that's a very bad thing). And yes let's keep focusing on the symptoms of this. Sure, Covid is quite similar to a cold or flu in terms of physical symptoms. But that's not the point is it. If 1,000,000+ people got sick at once with the cold or the flu, that would cause us problems, it would cause the NHS problems. Cold and flu rates don't run that high though because they aren't infectious enough to spread that fast. Covid 19 is. This is why Covid is a bigger problem. Anyone choosing not to understand this psychologically refuses to accept a rational analysis of the situation. I get it, it's been a long pandemic. Similar symptoms, higher transmission = very different kettle of fish. Please stop arguing with fresh air about the severity of the illness. Nobody is claiming at this point that its the most ruthless virus to walk the planet even if some of the most hysterical people might act that way. The issue is that it spreads like nobody's business, and too many people getting sick at once, even if a minority need serious treatment, asks too much of a stretched health system. Honestly, how many times does this need explaining? And before I get accused of wanting schools to close or wanting to be in lockdown forever, I don't. Schools are the last thing that should close down in a functioning society during these times and I really don't think it'll happen again. But the worst thing we can do in this pandemic is start looking for extra things to get angry about which either haven't happened or are things we've known since day one.

A very polarising Bundesliga round leaves the standing looking like this. With many of the top players from Round One also scoring highly in the latest round, there is quite a pack of realistic title contenders at this point. @Lucas' victory in Germany sees him join the tail end of the chasing pack while @Michael has a clear lead with a round win and a second place. @nudge and defending champion @Viva la FCB failed to take advantage of 'home advantage' in the last round and sit at the other end of the standings as the only pair yet to register a point.

Still has a "plenty more where that came from" feel to it. Pippa Crerar hammering the nails in one by one. It's when not if for Johnson now. 100 Tory rebels on the Covid laws tonight with the new restrictions only passing with Labour's support. Tight by election looming on Thursday.

It's on Fox News so unlikely.

Just thinks another three-word catch phrase and bleating on about the vaccine and bringing the army in again is all he has to do to get a polling boost. He's a busted flush.

The photo came out with claims that there were 20+ other people in the room but it doesn't prove a mass gathering, only three people sat together. Unless there are other photos. What I don't understand from the government is why they keep trying to create plausible deniability over whether there were parties or rule breaking. It's very clear that someone, be that Cummings or disgruntled staff in No 10 or someone else, have all of the receipts, and are deliberately leaking this evidence out a little bit at a time to invite Johnson and his people into a trap of denying every detail and then being proved wrong.

North Shropshire by election is next Thursday, the seat which Owen Paterson 'resigned' from after the scandal over his lobbying. These were the results last time. The Conservative candidate winning with almost two-thirds of the vote and a margin of almost 23,000 votes. By-elections are obviously a bit weird, with the scandal surrounding the previous MP and the increased difficulty incumbent governments face in by-elections where they're more likely to face a protest vote, their voters know they'll still be in power if they lose the seat, and those disgruntled with the government are more motivated to go out and put in a protest vote. But with a majority that large, you'd never expect them to lose the seat. What's also strange is that it's the Liberal Democrats leading the charge here despite Labour being the closest competitor at the last election. I can only speculate as to why that might be. There's definitely something going on in these by-elections though, with Labour and the Lib Dems informally standing down depending on who is the stronger challenger. There's still a Labour candidate standing, but they aren't really trying to win. They did something in Chesham and Amersham earlier this year where the Lib Dems took a seat off the Tories in another by-election. Lib Dems returned the favour in Batley and Spen which Labour held by the skin of their teeth, and the by-election last week, which the Tories held but with a reduced majority. This kind of informal cooperation might be essential in ousting the Tories at the next general election. Anyway, back to the point. This by-election is on Thursday and the bookies have it now at about 50/50 in light of the recent news. There's a lot of anger at the current government among their voter base. If a majority of 23,000 gets overturned that would be quite the result and it's starting to look very possible.

While these people do exist, and are hysterical, and are arguably as big of a problem and as misguided as some of the Covid-deniers, you don't half make out that there's loads of them out there. It's looking like good news and cause for cautious optimism. Doesn't mean it wasn't wrong to be cautious and vigilant at first. It's only really been a couple of weeks since this thing came to light so it hasn't really set us back. Also, this isn't to say I'm remotely on board with the 'curtain twitchers' demanding another lockdown until we go a year without a single case of the virus, but even if the symptoms are similar to a common cold or flu, it's sensible to mitigate where possible against the spread of the disease. Mass illness isn't good for the economy either and even if a vaccinated population has a tiny proportion of cases become hospitalisations, that's still a problem. People can prefer a cautious route and hope to see case numbers remain low without believing that the virus is worse than the plague or that we should build our lives around fighting it. It's a complicated situation, we're not going to be able to wake up one morning and say 'it's over now we can forget about it and move on' and there's going to be setbacks. I'm guilty of this too but there's a lot of factors to consider in managing this pandemic and we need to stop doing this thing where someone says one thing we disagree and we project this entire personality onto them be it "right wing anti-vaxxer" (unless that prove it like Happy Blue ) or "lockdown lover" or "Covid Karen" etc. then base our criticisms and arguments off a load of stuff they've never even said, if that makes sense.

Anyone else's parents save the newspaper from the day they were born? Johnson's wife gave birth to a little girl today. I wonder if they'll do the same for her?

34% man.

Starting to see in schools now the long term effects of the lockdowns on children's education for the first time. The short term effects weren't that bad but now we have a Year 11 who haven't had a full year in school since they were in Year 8, now they have GCSEs to sit. Those kids with base motivation and a supportive home life who could access the home learning easily are basically fine, some have even flourished in a way they might not have done otherwise, but they're in a minority. Most teenagers lack self-motivation even with support and positive pressure from their parents and carers. The difference is very clear in kids who have spent two years being in and out of school, and that's on the Isle of Man where we've had less disruption than the UK. We're going to be picking the pieces up for years. It's not just the lost learning and attainment either. The difference in their social development is clear as well in the way some of them are behaving in and out of school. This is where the home life has a bigger impact, not all of them have the support needed to keep them on the straight and narrow with such a big shift in their daily routine. The structure of school and the opportunity to socialise with their peers in school and in public are huge for those kids. Kids are bloody resilient, moreso than a lot of adults, they've accepted and overcome the adversity they've faced better than adults I'd say on average and that's no exaggeration. But they're still developing physically, mentally and emotionally, and this thing has left scars on many of them growing up that will take time to come to light and be resolved. More lockdowns cannot happen unless we find ourselves back in the situation we were in at the start. That's more likely to come from a future pandemic though than a mutation of this virus. Lockdowns only act to suppress infection and illness to buy time for other solutions such as vaccines and medication.

I think it's about 54 Tory MPs (15%?) have to send in statements of no confidence in him to trigger a leadership election internally. With that option on the table they'll never allow an early general election. It was thought about 15-20 of them sent their letters in already over the Paterson/sleaze stuff a few weeks ago. Not inconceivable it could happen soon. I imagine a few of them will be preparing for a leadership bid just in case.

This is becoming less and less true. Notice how immigration has started coming back to the fore because Farage and his ilk just need something to get angry at and brown people fleeing from devastation in their own home for a chance at a better life fits the bill. Some Tory councillors are starting to defect to Reform (Farage's old part) or Reclaim (Laurence Fox's weird middle-age divorcee party) because they're upset that the government actually have to do "leftie" things like taking climate change seriously, not following through with their inhumane threats to use gunboats on refugees crossing the channel, and making people wear masks and work from home for the sake of public safety, etc. The government, regardless of how right-wing or stupid they are, cannot avoid things like public health measures and having a long-term view on the bare minimum of things that we're going to have to deal with in the future. There's a wing of the Conservative party, and it's the most Brexity wing, that are just addicted to being totally outraged at anything the government asked them or the public to do that involves the slightest bit of sacrifice or state intervention, and because literally any government has to do that, even Mr Blobby's sorry cabal, no Prime Minister is ever far from them threatening mutiny. These people genuinely believe "the market" can solve climate change and "personal responsibility" can solve pandemics. His core support now probably comes from his cabinet and the "Red Wall" intake who feel as if they owe their seats to him and his Brexit. His problem with them is though that there's still a feeling that they've had Northern votes lent to them and they could lose them as quickly as they gained them. They're volatile in a different way. Problem for opposition is that these voters are going from Conservative to 'undecided', not to Labour or Lib Dem. They'll still be up for grabs at the next election which is why I worry that the Tories with a new leader will just suck them back up again and win because the other parties haven't managed to woo them.

I think we'll have a good idea by the start of next week whether or not this has a chance of spelling the end for the Clown King. Starmer has faced criticism for not demanding his resignation. If I was the Labour leader right now, I'd do almost anything to keep that glorified mop in Downing Street until the next election instead of going up against Truss or Sunak and allowing all of the "I'm alright Jack" Tory voters can just wilfully forgive another term of corrupt and regressive governance by pretending the new ones aren't like the last ones. He should go though regardless from a moral standpoint. Every day that thing is the supposed leader of this country is a national embarrassment and has been since the very start.

Mr Blobby is now going to come out and announce Plan B restrictions this evening including vaccine passports and work from home. Now I think work from home is eminently sensible as a short term winter measure while the case count is high, I'm not sold on vaccine passports. Sure they reduce transmission but I'm not sure the extent of the logistics behind them make it worthwhile or properly enforceable. This announcement, whether you agree with it or not, though, is going to be totally pointless. All of the follow up questions will be about this Christmas party and this government have lost all of the credibility and authority they had left in this field. However many people were a bit cheeky last year, you can multiply that by ten and there's no way the police can enforce sanctions against them all, so how can they pick and choose where to enforce the rules? They can't. And some will attempt to shift the blame onto them for not enforcing the government's laws. It'll be seen for the total farce it is though, because without even getting into the cutbacks policing has endured along with the rest of our public services in the last decade of Tory government, Downing Street's flagrant breach of its own rules last Christmas mean that any future restrictions are going to be unenforceable because you just won't get the consent you need from a big enough majority of the public. This PM has to go. God forbid the Omicron variant turns out to be more dangerous than the initial signals seem to suggest (touch wood) because the damage this government has done to public goodwill through their selfish actions would be devastating if the threat level of the pandemic shot up again.

There's a difference between having expectations and expecting them to be met though. There's a minimum expectation in these circumstances that you have the decency to follow the rules if you're asking everyone else to after being elected to the position where you’re the one making the call. Do I expect Boris Johnson to follow his rules though? No I don't, it doesn't mean the expectation should be scrapped altogether. You have to try and retain some expectation of some standards in public life. Going down the route of "expect nothing and you can't be disappointed" and/or taking the cynical view that they're all the same, we can't trust them, is how Boris Johnson being Prime Minister and Donald Trump becoming a world leader happens. I'm not fool enough to believe that Starmer, Corbyn, May, Cameron, Brown, whoever could be trusted 100% but all of them, I believe, could be trusted not to do this, and that still has to mean something. There has to still be some bar to clear no matter how pitifully low. I know I'm splitting hairs a bit but I do think it matters.

Given that Boris Johnson lost his mother earlier this year, I'd be far less angry if it came out that they'd had her over for Christmas Day against the rules. But even that would be awful because thousands of families across the UK are in the same boat and followed the rules. That would have been bad enough but at least you could put it down to human weakness. Having a massive party is about 100 steps more egregious. Anyway, enough. I think we're largely on the same page here.

It's one thing a minority of the public getting 2-3 households of their nearest and dearest together on the sly on Christmas day and most of them probably having the grace to feel bad about it. I'm not sure a "large chunk" of the population had sizeable secret parties with Secret Santa, cheese and wine. And that's before you factor in the rank hypocrisy of being the ones who actually made the rules themselves. Besides, even if you put all of that aside, it's the Prime Minister and the government. They've been elected to look after the country, they should be held to the highest standard of all. I get the temptation to try not to get angry. If you do it every time with this lot, it's not great for your mental health. You've got to try and find that balance. But you can't just turn a blind eye to everything because eventually nothing will matter and stuff like this will be perceived as okay. I really don't think it's unreasonable to say that there should be protests outside Downing Street until heads roll for this (and everything else).

If the Met police are off the hook on that technicality then fine, but it's a mere drop in the ocean. I'm not personally affected in this way but the number of people I'm reading sharing their stories on Twitter about saying their goodbyes over Zoom or leaving their parents and grandparents to spend what was their last Christmas in a care home without visitors, it's a disgrace. It's totally conceivable that horrible glob will win another election as well. An absolute toilet of a country.

Boris Johnson should never have been Prime Minister of this country. He's a bad and incompetent man on every level that I can think of. This story hasn't really riled me until tonight. It isn't even the hypocrisy, lies or sense that the rules don't apply to them that angers me, I've come to expect that. What angers me is the fact that Britain has become a country where you aren't even seeing people call for his resignation when that should be the minimum expectation. A Labour leader or even a Theresa May type gets strung up for this overnight. He should resign before the night is through. If this isn't a resigning matter for a Prime Minister in a pandemic then I literally don't know what is. Yet the Met police won't even investigate it. It's not the Britain I grew up in, or at least the one I believe I grew up in. We've become a country rotten to the core. How people can conceive of voting for this government and this party again is absolutely beyond me. I don't care how average the other parties are.

Are you guys happy with the new government and the centre-left party being the largest? I mean I suppose the election results sort of answer that question but is there a feeling of optimism?