Venezuela

[OrangeKhrush]

13 hours ago, El Profesor said:

 

It already is.

Colombia, Peru, the northern states of Brazil are completely overburdened with the flow of venezuelan immigration.

Sanctions would only worsen the conditions of the average venezuelan citizen without necessarily toppling the regime. Iraq in the 90s and Cuba are good examples of it.

It also would make Venezuela even more dependent from its foreign benefactors, increasing the power of Russia and Iran in South America. (China is a completely different chapter. With or without Maduro, the chinese have already massive power in Latin America and it´s only increasing. Even rightists like Bukele and Bolsonaro respect and want a good relationship with China)  

 

I suspect that at this point the most powerful player in venezuelan politics is the Army.

In order to survive, Maduro gave his generals a significant share of the oil fields and gold mines. They also trade drugs.

Maduro is still in power, because the Army so far is not interested in regime change. 

 

 

Venezuela is going to turn into another Iraq,  Maduro has threatened and invasion and annexation of Guyana and with the west extremely weak and in no capacity to fight a war,  in the US case intentionally unwilling.  

[Dr. Gonzo]

7 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Venezuela is going to turn into another Iraq,  Maduro has threatened and invasion and annexation of Guyana and with the west extremely weak and in no capacity to fight a war,  in the US case intentionally unwilling.  

How do they have no capacity to fight a war. Venezuela has no real capacity to defend itself from the US & there’s already US & UK naval presence there since Maduro’s threat of war.

I think it would take a lot going wrong for Venezuela to be another Iraq. As much as Putin and Khamenei would like their pal Maduro to sow as much chaos as he can… the guy is still a dictator, he’s driven by self preservation. It’s not the Middle East, this is a continent the US has been meddling for almost as long as it’s been a country. They’ve got far more influence in the Americas than they have in the Middle East.