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Poland vs Netherlands - Sunday 16th June, 2024


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The Netherlands are heavy favourites to win today's match against Poland according to the bookies. Some on this forum have also said they think the Netherlands are serious contenders for the title. But I think this Polish side is being a little underestimated. Poland were pretty erratic and not great for much of their qualifying phase for these Euros under Fernando Santos.

However, Poland then sacked Fernando Santos and replaced him with Michal Probierz on September 20th, 2023. Since then, Poland have not lost a single international and their performances have gradually improved, as Probierz has gotten to find out his best possible team and formation.

But Poland have been recently jinxed with injuries to their best strikers. Juventus forward Milik was ruled out of the whole Euro 2024 competition with an injury he picked up in a friendly match against Ukraine, just a week before the Euros kicked off. Then both their star forward Lewandowski as well as striker Swiderski also got injured in their final friendly match against Turkey. Moreover, their key defender Dawidowicz also got injured against the Turks. Although Lewandowski and Swiderski were still selected for Poland's Euro squad, they are both unlikely to be fit enough to play against the Netherlands. 

Despite these injuries, Poland's midfield seems to have enough grit and creativity to create chances for the reserve strikers that do end up playing against the Netherlands. Although the Dutch will probably have most of the possession, with the possession football they love playing so much, the Poles could do some serious damage on the counter attack, as they have good pace and passing skills in their team to punish the opposition. The Poles are pretty good at set pieces as well.

The Dutch rightfully start as favourites, given the array of talented players that they have in their squad. I am particularly looking forward to seeing Xavi Simons play in his first Euros for the Netherlands and other players like Gakpo and Dumfries should play a major contribution to the Netherlands success throughout this competition. But I don't think that we will see the Netherlands thrash Poland, like Germany did to Scotland and Spain did to Croatia. I don't think the Netherlands will win with more than a 2 goal margin and we could potentially see a draw in this game. 

 

 

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Looking at the line-ups, Poland's Lewandowski, Swiderski and defender Dawidowocz have not been fit enough to play. There is a surprise start for Romanczuk in the Polish midfield, a player who is actually mainly Ukrainian and only got Polish citizenship relatively recently in 2018. Romanczuk is 32 years old and yet only has 3 international appearances for Poland. I think it's a bit of a gamble from the Polish manager to start him in such a big match, but we will see how he performs. 19 year old teenager also starts in what will be only his 3rd international appearance for Poland, so it will be interesting to see how he plays. While the striking responsibilities amid the forwards injury crisis that Poland have falls to Buksa. Buksa is very much your traditional target man. 

The Netherlands start with Gakpo and Simons, as well as Depay as their main forward. In defence van Dijk marshals the back line, while de Vrij, Ake and Dumfries complete the defensive line-up. The manager is still preferring de Vrij over de Ligt, which I find quite surprising, but Koeman an ex-defender himself, will have his reasons. All in all, it will be exciting to watch this Dutch side play today.

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This Netherlands midfield isn’t great. I know it’s not their first choice due to injury, but the attack can barely get going because they aren’t getting the ball forward. Veerman & Schouten especially, really slow and indecisive on the ball. Want to see more from Simons & Depay second half as well because Gakpo is the one doing the most work up front so far, needs those two to wake up a bit. 
 

If the Netherlands speed up play in the second half I can see them winning comfortably. 

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Kiwior has a powerful shot well saved by Verbruggen and then seconds later Zielinski has a long range shot saved by Verbruggen from the follow up.

Edited by Michael
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