Putin is a Soviet era romantic, he certainly has some ambitions to expand but I think US is giving him a reason to justify do whatever he is up to with Ukraine possibly joining NATO. The Canada analogy is alright, Ukraine has sentimental values for Russia other than geopolitical, with the overlapping history and culture. It joining their geopolitical rival would be like to US if Canada forms military alliance with China.
Highly skeptical of US intelligence after Afghan withdrawal so don't think any invasion would be in weeks like they're saying.
P. S Thread title would be better like Ukraine crisis, West-Russia