Dan

I was talking earlier in the day with someone about who I thought would get automatics and I did actually settle on Leeds. I think Southampton's run, while very impressive, was possibly the easiest run of fixtures you could possibly have handpicked and I'm not shocked that it's fallen in a game like Bristol City away. They haven't beaten a top half team since November. They have to go away to Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds and West Brom. The jury is still a bit out on them for me. Leeds on the flip side, famous last words (although it's hardly going to upset me if I'm wrong here is it?) but they're looking like the real deal now. 7 wins in a row in the league and have the best record of anybody against the other teams at the top. I'm increasingly convinced they are the second best side in this division. The greatest praise I'll pay them is that I'd take a draw there next week and nobody gets that treatment from me in this division.

We're too good against 75% of this league to not get automatics. Routine win. Would've been nice if we'd gone for the throat in the second half but it's another job done. First half was probably the best we've played at home all season.

I'm doing similarly. February so far has been simply the worst month I think I've had if you exclude the draw thing I'm doing (which of course I'm on 0/2 for since throwing them into here). There just seems to be so many trends being bucked.

The similarity is that they're both limited players but both seem to have this knack of popping up at crucial moments, seem to have this tendency to score late winners.

I doubt it. I think given how bad we were against them in November without him starting we won't risk it. Inability to really rest him is part of the knock-on effect from the crap January. I'm positive about Leicester at the minute but if he got injured we'd be hit for sure.

McTominay doesn't half remind me of how Fellaini used to be for them. Just annoyingly inevitable.

I do have a record of every table so far so could see what exactly you had. There's so much more luck involved in this than anyone would want to admit. This season has felt particularly tricky - my bad form has stretched to my actual bets now with February looking like the worst month since I've tracked them. But I know of pro-gamblers who are struggling a bit this season. Seems to be so many games that are bucking trends and I don't just mean teams form, I mean high scoring teams games clashes resulting in 1-0s and whatnot. Really has been quite tough of late. A five fold at the lowest price there (5/6) would be around 20/1 yep.

Absolutely wank again. Fuck me.

Nowhere near a vintage performance from us and their gifted goal made the whole thing far harder work than it could've been, but I can't moan too much, I'd say it was deserved on the whole and it's yet another win. It's the wins like this being made routine that has us top of the league because it's the kind of game where Southampton and Leeds have been dropping the odd points while we hardly ever have done. I think we have a real chance of getting the record now.

A ground we traditionally struggle at but I feel a lot of these laws go out of the window this season. You could've said similar of Cardiff, Stoke etc... No Vestergaard for us. I hope he starts Nelson. He's looked really good.

It'd be another like the retrospective diving thing introduced a few years ago. A couple of players would be hit by it and the uproar from it would cause the refs to get back into their shell, and bin it off. The refs are weak in this country. Give decisions based on the fewest repercussions. I don't think there's ever going to be a perfect solution. With the wisdom of time I've come to the conclusion it's always going to be imperfect.

You know what - I'll take this with Cardiff v Preston draw at 11/5. Cardiff v Preston fills the criteria for my draw. Odds imply very little between the two teams, two fairly low scoring sides where under 2.5 goals is heavily favoured. I think 11/5 is therefore overpriced. Swindon have been pretty rank for weeks and Salford seem to have reverted to the level of last season following a managerial change - they've looked frankly a play-off level side in the last month or so. I think even despite the dropped price this is quite good value at 7/5. Cardiff v Preston - Draw @ 3.20 Swindon v Salford @ 2.45 £10 returns £78.40.

Bloody annoyed. Had two selections I was considering and the prices for both have absolutely tumbled good sign I suppose. I will probably still take Salford at Swindon at 7/5. The other was Partick Thisle to beat Livingston. That's gone from literally about 11/5 to 6/5.

I've added the odds to this one - because when odds aren't usually provided I just go off what flash scores says it was last, and there's no way I'd be able to find that bottom one. So a win here would return you £115.50.

I think VAR's biggest problem is that the premise of it taking attention away from the officials couldn't have been further wrong. It's just made that an even bigger central part of the discussion. This is just more of the same. It will create more boring debates. It's another symptom of the state of refereeing - which this specifically doesn't address. Load of rubbish.

He's quite prickly in general I think. He's got a right to be pissed off on both counts. I'm not denying that some of our games, particularly at home are a bit dull but that is frankly because they're a mismatch. That being said our fans have become embarrassingly bad these days - I don't know where this frustration was last year in the stands.

Stand always and don't really see the sitting down as a treat.

So I said during the Burton Lincoln pick that I'd be doing this method to back draws and honestly, I think there's genuinely a bit of an edge here. I've got a sample size of around 100 games now and it's around 14 points up. Look for tight odds and games the bookies think will be low scoring, and I'm finding you will win more than a third of the time (which is all you need if you make sure your minimum odds are 2/1). I think I'm quite likely to do a few draw doubles in here now unless I find something I can't resist.

WEEK 27 - MARGINAL GAINS WEEK 27 STATS Winning bets: 2/5 Winning selections: 5/10 Weekly forum position: +£4.11 (Ranked 10/27) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 46/181 Winning selections: 156/342 Total forum position: -£350.80 We seem to go up and down but the problem all season is that the downs are more extreme than the ups, so while this ranks as a decent week, it doesn't come near to wiping out the heavy loss of last week, although it's an upturn at least. @Lucas slips further behind the leader with his fourth loss on the bounce. The ever unreliable Dortmund delivering a 0-0 draw at Heidenheim, while the increasingly impressive Bayer Leverkusen strolled to a victory but didn't really bring the goals, so it's a double loser this week. The only change in the table is @Stan dropping back down to 6th following one of the most infuriating losses of the season. Having landed the generously priced A-League corners bet by the skin of his teeth, he was let down by Man Utd Women's 2-0 victory over Brighton Women not yielding the goals. @CaaC (John) in nice and early as ever with his prediction and makes no mistake this time out - two Premier League favourites who both racked up heavy victories over badly faltering teams for his first win since the week before Christmas. @RandoEFC is saved by a last gasp winner in France before I discover his second selection is postponed. The replacement of Rotherham v Southampton corners pays out fairly comfortably, for a nice winner. Mine was an optimistic double but once again, just no luck whatsoever. Cheltenham reverted to their early season woes delivering probably their worst result under Clarke, while the Burton Lincoln non-draw barely mattered by this point. I think if I told somebody that this season if I was around 50 points up on the actual selections I've placed nobody would believe me on this evidence. It's almost impressive to land only 1 pick out of 27 - a complete calamity of a season no matter how it's dressed up. Almost impossibly bad form.

Wrong table I think?

Bloke is mental but he's clearly very capable at that level.

This may be what saves them then!

didn't know that. I can only conclude he went to Stoke because of geography. That club is a black hole for anything good these days. I've got a mate who supports them who has seen them score as many goals this season in about 15-20 games watching them (9 goals) as I've seen us score in 2 games past their manager.

I think Stoke are bang in the shit. They're just awful. I thought it before yesterday as well.