nudge

Latest update: 28060 confirmed cases (+3697 since yesterday) - 3859 of those in serious or critical condition (+640). 24702 suspected cases (+1442). 564 deaths (+73). 1153 recoveries (+261). 282813 close contacts of the infected have been tracked (+30659); 186354 are under medical observation (+799). Pretty much the same trends as in the last few days. The total of international cases (including Hongkong, Taiwan and Macau) has risen to 258 (+30). The biggest contribution to the new total comes from Japan once again (12 new cases; 45 in total). There have been 10 new cases in the cruise ship Diamond Princess quarantined off the coast of Yokohama and there's also another one (World Dream) docked Hong Kong's Kai Tak Cruise Terminal with around 30 staff members reportedly suffering from the symptoms. That's more than 5300 people in total on the two ships so the numbers of confirmed cases might grow again in the next few day. Singapore, South Korea and Hongkong have also confirmed several new cases each. New case in the US (Wisconsin).

Found an interactive live-updating map by BNO that marks cities with confirmed cases. Here's the screen capture for the lazy: And here's the ink to the actual interactive map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1a04iBi41DznkMaQRnICO40ktROfnMfMx This is a brilliant resource.

Apparently only two labs in the whole sub-Saharan Africa are able to test for the virus; one in South Africa and one in Senegal. So even if there are infected cases there already we're unlikely to learn about them until later if a significant outbreak starts. The only African case I've heard about so far is a Cameroonian student in China. A few airlines in Africa suspended their China flights but overall there's only the usual symptom check going in the airports. Most African countries that are the most vulnerable and susceptible to a potential outbreak are not willing to severe their ties with China due to their economies relying heavily on the Chinese money.

Reminded me of this:

Absolutely! There's a good research paper in The Lancet published a few days ago; it's worth a read overall but they also analyse the risk of spread outside Wuhan based on both domestic and international transport links and are pretty much saying the same. Here's the link to the article if you're interested: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext . This is the list of the cities outside mainland China that had the greatest volume of incoming flights from Wuhan based in January and February last year: And here's the actual data from this year provided by SCMP: So it's definitely not surprising that Thailand, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hongkong now have the most confirmed cases outside mainland China and might be the most susceptible to localised outbreaks outside China. University of Southampton also published a nice set of data evaluating air travel destinations from the 18 high risk cities in mainland China over three months period before during and after the Lunar New Year mapping the cities under the highest perceived risk in all continents (https://www.worldpop.org/resources/docs/china/WorldPop-coronavirus-spread-risk-analysis-v1-25Jan.pdf). Regarding Mexico: there haven't been any confirmed cases so far as much as I'm aware. I didn't have enough time to map the cities affected so just did a quick map chart yesterday highlighting the countries with confirmed cases from my spreadsheet. Certainly not ideal as countries with a huge landmass make it look worse despite still having a few cases only (e.g. Canada; Russia). I'll try to make a new one mapping the cities instead when the new data from China is released tonight!

Latest update from China: 24363 confirmed cases (+3892 since yesterday) - 3219 of those in serious or critical condition (+431). 23260 suspected cases (+46). 491 deaths (+66). 892 recoveries (+260). 252154 close contacts of the infected have been tracked (+31139); 18457 of those have been cleared (+5702); 185555 are under medical observation (+14226). The average number of recoveries per day is increasing further with the average number of deaths per day staying pretty constant (about 4 times lower than the number of recoveries). The total of international cases (including Hongkong, Taiwan and Macau) has risen to 228 (+29) from 189 which is a significant increase compared to yesterday when only 6 new cases were reported within 24 hours; and the biggest increase to date. The biggest contribution to the new total comes from Japan (13 new cases; 10 of those have been just confirmed to be in a cruise ship moored off Yokohama near Tokyo with 3500+ passengers under quarantine and being tested (so there might be a further update tomorrow), Singapore and Thailand (6 new cases each). Visualised map of confirmed cases (click to enlarge for better view):

^^Bunch of twats. This made me chuckle.

Latest update from China: 20471 confirmed cases (+3233 since yesterday) - 2788 of those in serious or critical condition (+492). 23214 suspected cases (+1656). 425 deaths (+64). 632 recoveries (+157). 221015 close contacts of the infected have been tracked; 12755 of those have been cleared; 171329 are under medical observation. Very few new confirmed cases (+6) outside of mainland China: there have been 2 in the US, 2 in Germany, 1 in India and 1 in Vietnam reported in the last 24 hours. The total outside of mainland China is currently reported to be at 189.

Apparently only healthy people will be allowed to board the flight. https://globalnews.ca/news/6499384/canada-evacuation-coronavirus-flight/

As much as I'm aware; yes. British Airlines suspended all flights to/from mainland China until Feb 29th but some other carriers are still operating theirs.

Yes; for 14 days at Canadian Forces Base Trenton.

and now for some comic relief... https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/british-man-claims-whisky-honey-cured-his-coronavirus-infection-1675272

Really don't know what does any of it have to do with me though. The only things that I'm posting here are the official numbers of confirmed cases + deaths + recoveries reported by each country every day as well as some preliminary research by virologists and epidemiologists working on the forecast models based on the same data - simply because I like staying up to date with what's happening and I thought some others might find the data interesting as well. If that comes across as "desperate" then fair enough.

Desperate? How come? Because I follow the development of it? I think it's pretty clear that it's unlikely to be an issue in the West. China and surrounding nations is a different beast altogether though.

The forecast model is predicting the peak in April - honestly I'm not sure how real the reported numbers are (apparently there's a bottleneck due to limited testing capacity) and I wonder if we're going to see more local outbreaks in some other countries given that it took over a month until it got fully blown in Wuhan. It's a massive hit for China for sure; the impact on economy alone is going to be huge. The increasing number of recoveries is expected and should continue to grow exponentially; if the predicted fatality rate of approx. 2% is correct then it's still huge given how many people get infected.

Latest update from China: 17238 confirmed cases (+2827 since yesterday) - 2296 of those in serious or critical condition (+186). 21558 suspected cases (+2014). 361 deaths (+57). 475 recoveries (+147). The number of recoveries is increasing nicely. The number of confirmed cases outside mainland China has risen to 183 (+24); 1 death (in Philippines).

This is a decent set of graphs comparing the contagiousness and mortality rate of the new coronavirus, SARS and the swine flu.

First death outside China... "A 44-year-old male is confirmed as the second person with the 2019 novel coronavirus acute respiratory disease (2019-nCoV) in the Philippines. He passed away on 1 February 2020."

Latest update from China: 14411 confirmed cases (+2590 since yesterday) - 2110 of those in serious or critical condition (+315). 19544 suspected cases (+1556). 304 deaths (+45). 328 recoveries (+85). A big rise in confirmed cases as well as a worrying rise in cases in serious/critical condition. On the other hand the number of recoveries has also increased significantly whereas the rise in counts of deaths stayed pretty much the same as yesterday. There's reportedly 169 international cases (+13) but I don't have a neat graph mapping it at the moment.

They have interesting safety cars in Australia...

Weirdly enough it's a German tourist (?) who earlier came into contact with one of the infected Germans in Bavaria who caught it from a visiting co-worker from Shanghai who caught it from her parents who visited her from Wuhan earlier in China the contagiousness is quite incredible.

Latest update from China: 11821 confirmed cases (+2101 since yesterday) - 1795 of those in serious or critical condition (+268). 17988 suspected cases (+2750). 259 deaths (+46). 243 recoveries (+72). International data: 156 confirmed cases in 23 countries + Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan. UK, Russia and Spain recorded their first cases today.

This looks great. Based on the comic series right? Also I don't know if I already posted this or not but I watched Season 1 of The Passage recently. Thought you might enjoy it too.