The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Azeem]

Apart from the contingent for diplomatic staff all active U. S. military troops have been evacuated from Afghanistan, including the largest Bagram base.

Very precarious days ahead for the country and the region. Different Afghan factions, private military contractors, global stakeholders. Immi already said we'll close borders if things go shit. 

As much as I want to happen otherwise, don't think anyone has learned lesson from last time with the Soviet withdrawal. Hope I'm wrong

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, McAzeem said:

Apart from the contingent for diplomatic staff all active U. S. military troops have been evacuated from Afghanistan, including the largest Bagram base.

Very precarious days ahead for the country and the region. Different Afghan factions, private military contractors, global stakeholders. Immi already said we'll close borders if things go shit. 

As much as I want to happen otherwise, don't think anyone has learned lesson from last time with the Soviet withdrawal. Hope I'm wrong

I think it's inevitable the Taliban take over the country again after the West withdraws.

Look at how much ground the Taliban gained in recent weeks - and even the taliban were surprised with how quick they were advancing  I think it's easy to be worried about what comes next for Afghanistan - because I think we've seen this film before. And yeah, I agree with you - I don't think the lesson was learned the last time with the Soviet withdrawal. Because... think about it - the Taliban are basically an offshoot of the US backing radical militants against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Along with Al Qaeda, who famously became a US enemy after 2001.

And now in Syria we see the US (and NATO) is basically acting as Al Qaeda & ISIS's airforce - so we've already come to see the world powers fail to learn from the lessons of Afghanistan in the 80s once before.

I'm not sure it's smart to expect them to suddenly learn from past mistakes. But I hope we're wrong.

[Azeem]

[Azeem]

[Azeem]

So it's not just Bagram, allied forces are leaving tactical bases without passing it to the local security agencies and lootes are taking advantage of it, taking what they could before local forces arrive.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 06/07/2021 at 03:28, McAzeem said:

So it's not just Bagram, allied forces are leaving tactical bases without passing it to the local security agencies and lootes are taking advantage of it, taking what they could before local forces arrive.

I think the swift success of the Taliban has led the US to have no faith/trust that Afghan security forces won't immediately fold once the Taliban turn up.

China's announced they're planning heavy investment into Afghanistan as part of the belt and road project. I'll bet they find throwing shitloads of cash at the Taliban makes them more pliable than the threat of decades of war.

[Azeem]

Our main issue in Afghanistan are these ex-commie Pashtun ethnic nationalists like Ghani etc who like ethnic nationalists elsewhere have a territorial expansionist agenda claiming all of Pashtun parts of Pakistan.

You can tell how hysterical they are that despite imminent collapse of their government at home they still care more about territorial claims elsewhere.

When Taliban came in power last time they also showed the same sentiments. Which makes it clear that despite commies or Islamists both groups are ethnic nationalists at core. 

Really a difficult situation. If you try to mend ways with them relations with Northern alliance will deteriorate, like it did happen once. Same outcome other way around. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Ethno-nationalism can probably be blamed for a lot of things around the world.

[El Profesor]

Is it true that Taliban gained popularity in part because the group opposed the practice of Bacha-Bazi? 

I also rmemeber reading somewhere that the americans allied themselves with warlords that were keen on this practice and that this undermined their efforts to gain the hearts and minds of the afghan population. 

[Azeem]

9 hours ago, El Profesor said:

Is it true that Taliban gained popularity in part because the group opposed the practice of Bacha-Bazi? 

Yes, most western analyst and academia avoid this but Taliban due their religious rural background have a lot of support from rural Afghanistan.  The recent rapid conquests by them to everyone's surprise even theirs should be enough to realise they have an indigenous stronghold. 

[Azeem]

Interesting move by Turkey in Afghanistan, insisting on retaining a 600 force in Kabul airport. Most probably has something to do with pleasing and back deals with U. S. amid the deteriorating relations recently. U. S. was reaching out to all neighboring countries for bases and support but all denied. Taliban have categorically denied they won't accept presence of any NATO troops including Turkey. Turkey also has sound relations with warlord/ex President Dostum so probably want to keep their future interests in the region.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Very bad droughts in Iran due to the high heat this summer - to add to Iran's many domestic problems.

[Azeem]

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I want to post something about the violence in Khuzestan in the aftermath of protests regarding their water shortage & the IRI firing upon these protestors... but the forum isn't letting me.

[Azeem]

Afghan govt forces airstriked a hospital in Afghanistan.

It's not difficult to understand why US failed to rebuild after 20 years. Everything was about empowering the warlords who then do this. Never were going to get the public support

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 31/07/2021 at 20:47, Khan of TF365 said:

Afghan govt forces airstriked a hospital in Afghanistan.

It's not difficult to understand why US failed to rebuild after 20 years. Everything was about empowering the warlords who then do this. Never were going to get the public support

Isn’t that basically US Middle East policy in a nutshell?

Make stupid decisions that turn large swathes of the local population against you & then acting surprised and angry when the situation goes the exact opposite of how the US would like it to go.

It’s all the more bizarre with Afghanistan - they could have learned what not to do from the Soviet invasion… and had a unique role in the initial formation of the Taliban. You wouldn’t think they’d be so… ignorant about how they went about their invasion and occupation of Afghanistan.

Yet here we are.

I think China’s gonna come in now and throw money at the Taliban saying “we don’t care what you do to Afghans in Afghanistan, but we want to build and have control over Afghan infrastructure and we want exclusive mining rights” - and it’ll probably be a more effective strategy than America’s more expensive 20 year war.

But any situation I think is bad for Afghans generally, so that’s pretty shit for them 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Iran's suspected of taking the crew of 4 tankers in the Persian gulf hostage

[Dr. Gonzo]

The Taliban have reclaimed their first provincial capital since the US's withdraw from Afghanistan - Zaranj, on the border with Iran.

[Azeem]

It's really grim seeing the situation of displaced Afghan civilians. It's understable no single country bordering Afghanistan can take the whole burden of refugees but some kind of joint buffer zone must be done. 

 

[Azeem]

Taliban have taken over 5 capital cities in three days. US & govt forces are only indiscriminately airstriking achieving nothing on the ground. Civilians casualties in the end. 

Things like drugs, corruption are well documented in Afghan govt forces but just how bad they are losing major cities like dominoes ! US gave them equipment that no one other has in the region. 

[Azeem]

US has made it clear their only attention is to get out their troops safely.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Khan of TF365

[Azeem]

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[Dr. Gonzo]

21 hours ago, Khan of TF365 said:

US has made it clear their only attention is to get out their troops safely.

I am so very, very surprised.

Lol jk, knew that would happen. Looks like a new round of refugees for a shitload of the neighboring countries for Afghanistan.

Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan and Jordan routinely take in refugees as a result of western invasions yet it is constantly western countries who have a national crisis over refugees. And most of those countries listed are significantly poorer than the western invading countries.

The US just fucking off back home without a care about what their 20 year adventure in Afghanistan means for the region is really just par for the course with their (and their allies) morally bankrupt foreign policy.

[Azeem]

22 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan and Jordan routinely take in refugees as a result of western invasions yet it is constantly western countries who have a national crisis over refugees. And most of those countries listed are significantly poorer than the western invading countries.

The US just fucking off back home without a care about what their 20 year adventure in Afghanistan means for the region is really just par for the course with their (and their allies) morally bankrupt foreign policy.

There must be some kind of buffer zone created within Afghanistan for hosting the refugees. It won't happen though just more civilian casualties & in return many will go join the Taliban in vengeance.

Taliban's swift conquest is also because many troops are surrendering to them, refusing to fight them cause many of them are their relatives and family.

[Dr. Gonzo]

20 minutes ago, Khan of TF365 said:

There must be some kind of buffer zone created within Afghanistan for hosting the refugees. It won't happen though just more civilian casualties & in return many will go join the Taliban in vengeance.

Taliban's swift conquest is also because many troops are surrendering to them, refusing to fight them cause many of them are their relatives and family.

I don’t think a buffer zone in Afghanistan is possible, the Taliban won’t respect the buffer zone