Climate Change

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: 'Bleak' outlook as carbon emissions gap grows

Countries will have to increase their carbon-cutting ambitions fivefold if the world is to avoid warming by more than 1.5C, the UN says.

The annual emissions gap report shows that even if all current promises are met, the world will warm by more than double that amount by 2100.

Richer countries have failed to cut emissions quickly enough, the authors say.

Fifteen of the 20 wealthiest nations have no timeline for a net-zero target.

• Greenhouse gas concentrations break records
• China coal surge threatens Paris climate targets
• Musicians 'have to be proactive' on climate change

Hot on the heels of the World Meteorological Organization's report on greenhouse gas concentrations, the UN Environment Programme (Unep) has published its regular snapshot of how the world is doing in cutting levels of these pollutants.

The emissions gap report looks at the difference between how much carbon needs to be cut to avoid dangerous warming - and where we are likely to end up with the promises that countries have currently committed to, in the Paris climate agreement.

The UN assessment is fairly blunt. "The summary findings are bleak," it says. "Countries collectively failed to stop the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions, meaning that deeper and faster cuts are now required."

The report says that emissions have gone up by 1.5% per year in the last decade. In 2018, the total reached 55 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. This is putting the Earth on course to experience a temperature rise of 3.2C by the end of this century.

How years compare with the 20th Century average

2019 is on course to be in the top three warmest years

 

 

[CaaC (John)+]

More than 500 Swiss glaciers have already vanished, and the government says 90% of the remaining 1,500 will go by the end of the century if nothing is done to cut emissions. Their retreat is expected to have a major impact on water levels - possibly raising them initially as the ice melts but depleting them long term. Officials fear the changes could trigger rockfalls and other hazards and affect the economy.

SLIDES - 1/18

[CaaC (John)+]

Russia's Taymyr plan: Arctic coal for India risks pollution

Natural riches come in two conflicting types in Russia's Arctic north: valuable minerals and spectacular wildlife.

But sadly for many threatened species, the decline in Arctic sea ice has created a new economic opportunity for Russia in their remote habitat.

In a decree last year President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian firms to boost cargo traffic on the Northern Sea Route to an annual 80m tonnes by 2024.

Ambitious energy co-operation deals were signed with India in Vladivostok, in Russia's far east, in October.

One centre on a big open-cast coal mining project in the Taymyr Peninsula, in the far north of central Siberia.

The area is rich in high-quality coking coal (anthracite), used to make steel and aluminium.

Dharmendra Pradhan, India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said: "We are the second-largest coal importer in the world, and we intend to achieve production of 3m tonnes of steel per year by 2030, so we need to increase coal supplies.

FULL REPORT

[Teso dos Bichos]

SPECIAL REPORTBorneois burningHow the world’s demand for palm oil is driving deforestation in Indonesia

 

By Rebecca Wright, Ivan Watson, Tom Booth and Masrur Jamaluddin, CNN

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/11/asia/borneo-climate-bomb-intl-hnk/

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: Emissions edge up despite drop in coal

Researchers say that carbon dioxide emissions this year have risen slightly, despite a drop in the use of coal.

The Global Carbon Project's annual analysis of emission trends suggests that CO2 will go up by 0.6% in 2019.

The rise is due to continuing strong growth in the utilisation of oil and gas.

Since the Paris agreement was set out in 2015, CO2 emissions have risen by 4%.

• Greta Thunberg: People underestimate 'angry kids'
• Last decade 'on course' to be warmest
• Critical year for climate change begins in Madrid

Last year saw a strong rise in emissions of almost 3%, with strong demand for coal in China being the main factor. There was also a surge in demand for oil, driven by a booming global market for cars, particularly SUVs.

This year's modest rise, if indeed it is a rise, as the margin of error is large, reflects some significant changes in the demand for fossil fuels.

 

FULL REPORT

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: Oceans running out of oxygen as temperatures rise

Climate change and nutrient pollution are driving the oxygen from our oceans, and threatening many species of fish.

That's the conclusion of the biggest study of its kind, undertaken by conservation group IUCN.

While nutrient run-off has been known for decades, researchers say that climate change is making the lack of oxygen worse.

Around 700 ocean sites are now suffering from low oxygen, compared with 45 in the 1960s.

Researchers say the depletion is threatening species including tuna, marlin and sharks.

• Concerns over ocean heating report
• Last decade 'on course' to be warmest
• Birds 'shrinking' as the climate warms

The threat to oceans from the nutrient run-off of chemicals such as nitrogen and phosphorus from farms and industry has long been known to impact the levels of oxygen in the sea waters and still remains the primary factor, especially closer to coasts.

However, in recent years the threat from climate change has increased.

As more carbon dioxide is released enhancing the greenhouse effect, much of the heat is absorbed by the oceans. In turn, this warmer water can hold less oxygen. The scientists estimate that between 1960 and 2010, the amount of the gas dissolved in the oceans declined by 2%.

FULL REPORT

 

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: Methane pulse detected from South Sudan wetlands

Scientists think they can now explain at least part of the recent growth in methane (CH4) levels in the atmosphere.

Researchers, led from Edinburgh University, UK, say their studies point to a big jump in emissions coming from just the wetlands of South Sudan.

Satellite data indicates the region received a large surge of water from East African lakes, including Victoria.

This would have boosted CH4 from the wetlands, accounting for a significant part of the rise in global methane.

Perhaps even up to a third of the growth seen in the period 2010-2016, when considered with East Africa as a whole.

"There's not much ground-monitoring in this region that can prove or disprove our results, but the data we have fits together beautifully," said Prof Paul Palmer.

"We have independent lines of evidence to show the Sudd wetlands expanded in size, and you can even see it in aerial imagery - they became greener," he told BBC News.

• Methane surge needs 'urgent attention'
• Greenhouse gas concentrations break records
• Last decade 'on course' to be warmest

FULL REPORT

[Guest]

I have mixed feelings on global warming deniers. On the one hand I think why are people with no scientific background thinking they are right and that thousands of PhD scientists, some of the greatest minds in the world, that have spent years researching this are wrong?? I mean I was taking to someone the other day who got an f in science saying he thought they were wrong. It really is ridiculous when you think about it.

On the other hand though I kind of ask is is good for society of we just except what scientists tell us? I still think global warming denial is ridiculous but it is a difficult issue.

[CaaC (John)+]

UN climate talks appear to be in trouble as they head into extra time.

Fault lines have re-appeared between major emitters and small island states, with one delegate describing a new draft text as "totally unacceptable".

Alden Meyer, from the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the situation in Madrid was unprecedented since climate negotiations began in 1991.

Negotiators are working towards a deal that would see countries commit to making new climate pledges by the end of 2020.

Saturday saw the release of a new draft text from the meeting, designed to chart a way forward for the parties to the Paris agreement.

The Paris pact came into being in 2015, with the intention of keeping the global average temperature to well below 2C. This was regarded at the time as the threshold for dangerous global warming, though scientists subsequently shifted the definition of the "safe" limit to a rise of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

But Mr Meyer commented: "The latest version of the Paris Agreement decision text put forward by the Chilean presidency is totally unacceptable. It has no call for countries to enhance the ambition of their emissions reduction commitments.

"If world leaders fail to increase ambition in the lead up to next year's climate summit in Glasgow, they will make the task of meeting the Paris Agreement's well below 2C temperature limitation goal - much less the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal - almost impossible."

His view was echoed by David Waskow, international climate director for the World Resources Institute (WRI). "If this text is accepted, the low ambition coalition will have won the day," he said.

The conference in the Spanish capital has become enmeshed in deep, technical arguments about a number of issues including the role of carbon markets and the financing of loss and damage caused by rising temperatures.

Responding to the messages from science and from climate strikers, the countries running this 26th conference of the parties (COP) meeting are keen to have a final decision here that would see countries put new, ambitious plans to cut carbon on the table.

According to the UN, 84 countries have promised to enhance their national plans by the end of next year. Some 73 have said they will set a long-term target of net zero by the middle of the century.

But earlier in the meeting, negotiators from the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) pointed the finger of blame at countries including Australia, the United States, Canada, Russia, India, China and Brazil.

They had failed to submit revised plans that would help the world keep the rise in global temperatures under 1.5C this century.

At a "stock-taking" session on Saturday morning, Tina Stege, a negotiator with the Marshall Islands delegation, said: "I need to go home and look my kids in the eye and tell them we came out with an outcome that will ensure their future."

She added: "The text must address the need for new and more ambitious NDCs and long-term goals. We can't leave with anything else."

Reinforcing the sense of division, India, supported by China, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, has been taking a hard line on promises made by richer countries in previous agreements before the Paris pact was signed in 2015.

The deal saw every country, India included, sign up to take actions.

This was a key concession to the richer nations who insisted that the deal would only work if everyone pledged to cut carbon, unlike previous agreements in which only the better off had to limit their CO2.

But India now wants to see evidence that in the years up to 2020, the developed world has lived up to past promises.

For many delegates, the deadlock is intensely frustrating in light of the urgent need to tackle emissions.

"I've been attending these climate negotiations since they first started in 1991. But never have I seen the almost total disconnect we've seen here at COP25 in Madrid between what the science requires and the people of the world demand, and what the climate negotiations are delivering in terms of meaningful action," said Alden Meyer.

"The planet is on fire and our window of escape is getting harder and harder to reach the longer we wait to act. Ministers here in Madrid must strengthen the final decision text, to respond to the mounting impacts of climate change that are devastating both communities and ecosystems all over the world."

Jake Schmidt, from the US-based Natural Resources Defense Council, said: "In Madrid, the key polluting countries responsible for 80% of the world's climate-wrecking emissions, stood mute, while smaller countries announced they'll work to drive down harmful emissions in the coming year.

"The mute majority must step up, and ramp up, their commitments to tackle the growing climate crisis well ahead of the COP26 gathering "

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50795294

 

[CaaC (John)+]

'The closest thing on Earth to interplanetary travel'

Finding out how fast Antarctic ice is melting is critical to understanding the scale of the climate crisis. The BBC's chief environmental correspondent, Justin Rowlatt, is, therefore, joining scientists as they check the health of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. But first, he has to undergo some checks himself.

We were an hour into the medical examination.

Dr McGovern had asked every conceivable question. He had peered at, measured and squeezed me.

Then there was a pause.

"Now I need to examine your prostate", he says.

"You're kidding," I say.

"I am not," he replies, reaching for a latex glove.

FULL REPORT

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change hope for hydrogen fuel

A tiny spark in the UK’s hydrogen revolution has been lit – at a university campus near Stoke-on-Trent.

Hydrogen fuel is a relatively green alternative to alternatives that produce greenhouse gases.

The natural gas supply at Keele University is being blended with 20% hydrogen in a trial that's of national significance.

Adding the hydrogen will reduce the amount of CO2 that’s being produced through heating and cooking.

Critics fear hydrogen will prove too expensive for mass usage, but supporters of the technology have high hopes.

Using natural gas for heating generates about a third of the UK emissions that are driving global warming.

But the only product of burning hydrogen is water.

How does it work?

As a fuel, hydrogen functions in much the same way as natural gas. So staff in the university canteen say cooking on the 20% hydrogen blend has made no difference to their cooking regime.

The project – known as HyDeploy - is the UK’s first live trial of hydrogen in a modern gas network. Keele was chosen because it has a private gas system.

Its hydrogen is produced in an electrolyser - a device that splits water (H2O) into its constituents: hydrogen and oxygen. The machine is located in a glossy green shipping container in the corner of the university’s sports field.

The gas distribution firm Cadent, which is leading the project, says that if a 20% blend were to be rolled out across Britain, it would reduce emissions of CO2 by six million tonnes - equivalent to taking 2.5 million cars off the road.

The hydrogen could be generated pollution-free by using surplus wind power at night to split water molecules using electrolysis.

Why not add more than 20% hydrogen?

The 20% proportion was chosen because it’s an optimal blend that won’t affect gas pipes and appliances.

Currently, the UK has only small supplies of hydrogen, but the firm says increasing production would offer a quick way of cutting emissions from heating.

Consultant engineer Ed Syson told BBC News: “The prize is a large one. If we were to roll this system out across the UK it would be on broadly the same scale as offshore wind is today. So it’s a significant technology.

“What’s more, it makes those carbon savings without having customers change their behaviour in any way.”

How long before we see 100% hydrogen boilers?

Some boiler manufacturers are already producing prototype boilers that use 100% hydrogen.

Worcester Bosch, for instance, has a “hydrogen-ready” design. It can run on natural gas, but it’s capable of converting to 100% hydrogen following a one-hour visit by an engineer.

The firm wants the government to stipulate that by 2025, all new boilers on sale should be hydrogen-ready.

It says this would allow households to switch painlessly to clean boilers when existing boilers reach the end of their lives. The extra cost of the hydrogen-ready boiler would be about £50, it says.

How clean is hydrogen?

Hydrogen can be produced from water through electrolysis, or from natural gas.

Electrolysis from surplus renewable energy is unambiguously beneficial for the environment – but it’s not very efficient.

For the foreseeable future, it may be cheaper to produce hydrogen from natural gas. However, CO2 is released in the industrial process used to generate hydrogen.

The resulting CO2 would need to be captured and stored underground with carbon capture and storage (CCS) - a technology not yet established at scale.

Is the hydrogen revolution inevitable?

About 85% of homes have gas central heating, and some experts believe it will prove more cost-effective to switch boilers to hydrogen, rather than to install heat pumps which would require the UK’s ageing housing stock to be highly insulated.

A recent study for the government raised the possibility that homes could be warmed by a hybrid system using electric heat pumps, then topping up with hydrogen on cold days.

Major drawbacks to hydrogen are cost and availability. The costs are much higher than for natural gas, although the differential will surely shrink as carbon taxes raise the price of burning gas to combat climate change over the coming decades.

The environmental think tank E3G said in a statement: “Going for hydrogen entails massive infrastructure expenditure. In many cases the additional costs make it look unattractive compared with alternatives (like renewables).

Richard Black from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) told BBC News: “We will and should have hydrogen in the mix of energy options, but it’s not a wonder solution to everything, which you sometimes get the impression from the rhetoric. There is hope – but too much hype.”

Meanwhile, in the corner of a sports field in Keele, the container of hope has just supplied enough hydrogen to cook 20% of Christmas dinners.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50873047

[CaaC (John)+]

Wine travels to space to help in climate change research

SLIDES - 1/4

While many of us might enjoy a bottle of Bordeaux during this festive season, a case of the wine is also sitting in space - strictly off-limits to the astronauts.

A dozen bottles have been sent to the International Space Station as part of the research which could lead to new insights for the food and drinks industry and help breed hardier plants that adapt to climate change.

"In the beginning, we were not thinking this project was serious," said Professor Philippe Darriet from the Bordeaux Scientific Institute of Vine and Wine, where the cargo was packed in special metal containers for the rocket journey.

"But we took this opportunity to consider the stay of the wine on the ISS. It gives us the possibility of studying the effect of microgravity, of the solar radiation, on the evolution of the wine component. And our speciality in this institution is to study the wine component-taste and flavour and so on."

Twelve bottles of Bordeaux made their way to the ISS aboard a capsule where they will be left to age for a year. The space wine will then be compared to 12 bottles of the same wine left to age on Earth.

The project is the first of six missions which will be carried out by the start-up "Space Cargo Unlimited" including sending vines into space. But the aim is getting insights which stretch way beyond improving wine.

The company's chief executive and co-founder Nicolas Gaume says wine-making is a complex process involving yeast, bacteria and chemical processes which makes it good for space study.

He told Sky News: "Wine is actually a very interesting liquid to study from a biological standpoint. It has all the key ingredients of what we are interested in studying which is the future of agriculture and food on Earth."

Space and what happens there can give scientists important information which could help plants fight disease and thrive in a changing climate.

"What we really want is to expose a number of living organisms to the specific conditions of space… and then possibly bringing back interesting new evolutions of life in space that could allow us to get more resilient plants to respond to a specific parasite, plants that are going to grow to a different environment with climate change," he added.

The project has been years in the making and the first results will be back in the coming months when the space wine will be tested and analysed.

The big challenge, for now, could be keeping the astronauts' hands off the cargo over the festive period.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/wine-travels-to-space-to-help-in-climate-change-research/ar-BBYwV3N

[CaaC (John)+]

Grass growing around Mount Everest as global heating intensifies

Shrubs and grasses are springing up around Mount Everest and across the Himalayas, one of the most rapidly heating regions of the planet. 

The impact on water supplies of the small but significant increase in vegetation between the treeline and snowline is not yet known but could increase flooding in the vast Hindu Kush Himalayan region, which covers 4.2msq km(1.6m sq miles), feeds Asia’s 10 largest river systems and supplies 1.4 billion people with water. 

Scientists used satellite data to identify increases in vegetation in the inaccessible subnival (the highest zone allowing plant growth) ecosystem, made up of grasses and dwarf shrubs with seasonal snow. This ecosystem is known but could play a crucial role in the region’s hydrology, covering between five and 15 times the area of permanent glaciers and snow in the region.

Studying images from 1993 to 2018 provided by Nasa’s Landsat satellites, researchers from Exeter University measured the spread of vegetation cover across four height brackets from 4,150 to 6,000 metres above sea level.

The melting of Himalayan glaciers has doubled since the turn of the century, with more than a quarter of all ice loss over the last four decades. Research has suggested that its ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate-induced shifts in vegetation.

“A lot of research has been done on ice melting in the Himalayan region, including a study that showed how the rate of ice loss doubled between 2000 and 2016,” said Dr Karen Anderson, of the Environment and Sustainability Institute on Exeter’s Penryn Campus in Cornwall.

“It’s important to monitor and understand ice loss in major mountain systems, but subnival ecosystems cover a much larger area than permanent snow and ice, and we know very little about them and how they moderate water supply.”

It is not yet known how more vegetation might affect water supplies but studies of increased vegetation in the Arctic found that they delivered a warming effect in the surrounding landscape, with the plants absorbing more light and warming the soil.

“That would be bad news for the Himalayas,” said Anderson. “The subnival zone is where seasonal snow is held and if it is warmer you will get flashy hydrology – quicker melt rates and an increased risk of flooding.”

But Anderson said that more vegetation may not actually increase warming and flood risks in the Himalayas, with the only study in the region, in Tibet, finding that the water in the plants that are evaporated through their leaf surface actually exerted a cooling influence.

“We really don’t know much about this area and we need to direct research attention towards it because it’s a major part of the water supply story in the Himalayas,” she added.

The study, published in Global Change Biology, was made possible by Google’s new Earth Engine, which provides researchers with a freely accessible collection of government agency satellite data in the cloud. Previously, researchers would have had to build a super-computer to sift through the enormous quantities of satellite data.

“It has really revolutionised this kind of work and enables large-scale, long time-series investigations like this to happen,” said Anderson. 

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: Last decade confirmed as warmest on record

The 10 years to the end of 2019 have been confirmed as the warmest decade on record by three global agencies.

According to Nasa, Noaa and the UK Met Office, last year was the second warmest in a record dating back to 1850.

The past five years were the hottest in the 170-year series, with the average of each one more than 1C warmer than pre-industrial.

The Met Office says that 2020 is likely to continue this warming trend.

2016 remains the warmest year on record when temperatures were boosted by the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Today's data doesn't come as a huge surprise, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) signalling at the start of last December that 2019 likely marked the end of the warmest decade on record.

The Met Office, which is involved in producing the HadCRUT4 temperature data, says that 2019 was 1.05C above the average for the period from 1850-1900.

Last year saw two major heat waves hit Europe in June and July, with a new national record of 46C set in France on 28 June. New records were also set in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and in the UK at 38.7C.

In Australia, the mean summer temperature was the highest on record by almost a degree.

FULL REPORT

[RandoEFC+]

iT's AlL a LeFt WiNg CoNsPiRaCy ThOuGh.

If the fact that, in the face of all this evidence, governments all over the Western world still prioritise the lobbyists from major energy firms that keep them funded and indirectly therefore keep them in power over the betterment of the environment isn't enough to make you lose faith in humanity then I don't know what will. Rich bastards who will be able to buy their way out of suffering the consequences of climate change have almost total control over our lives. It's really hard not to conclude that this battle has been lost. I mean it's 2020 and the government of Great Britain are listing Extinction Rebellion as an 'extremist belief' that should be reported to Prevent for christ's sake, and the majority of the population either don't know that this has happened or don't understand how utterly insane it is if they are aware. This used to be a country where we'd look around us and call other nations "backwards" while being proud of leading the way in good causes like combatting climate change. I can clearly remember that and I'm only 26. What the fuck happened?

Utterly depressing.

[CaaC (John)+]

Incredible places that will be underwater by 2050

SLIDES - 1/33

[Mpache]

I swear I saw Greta Thunberg on my flight to Hawaii.

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change pushing Australia's platypus towards extinction: researchers

Prolonged drought and other effects of climate change are pushing Australia's unique platypus population towards extinction, scientists warned in a study published Monday.

The river-dwelling animal has already disappeared from up to 40 per cent of its historical range on Australia's east coast due to the drought, land clearing, pollution and building of dams, which fragment their habitat, the researchers said.

They predicted that if the current threats persist, platypus numbers will fall another 47-66 per cent over the next 50 years.

If projections about worsening climate change are taken into account, the numbers of the duck-billed, egg-laying mammal could plummet up to 73 per cent by 2070, they wrote.

The platypus is listed as "near threatened" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

But the scientists from the University of New South Wales' Centre for Ecosystem Science said damage to river systems caused by years of little rainfall and high temperatures had worsened prospects for the animal.

“These dangers further expose the platypus to even worse local extinctions, with no capacity to repopulate areas," said Gilad Bino, lead author of the study.

The scientists said there is an "urgent need" for a national risk assessment to determine if the platypus should be downgraded to "vulnerable" status and to layout conservation steps "to minimise any risk of extinction”. 

The study is the first across all platypus habitat zones to establish a so-called "metapopulation" model while also projecting the impacts of climate change on the species going forward.

The survey estimated the total platypus population had fallen by 50 per cent since the European settlement of the continent two centuries ago.

An earlier study published in November 2018 estimated the population had fallen by 30 per cent over that period, to around 200,000.

"Under predicted climate change, the losses forecast were far greater because of increases in extreme drought frequencies and duration, such as the current dry spell," Bino said of the latest report.

The new study comes as unprecedented bushfires ravage vast areas of eastern Australia, fuelled by the drought and record-high temperatures.

The platypus, which along with four species of echidna are the only mammals that lay eggs, is one of the world's strangest animals, with the bill of a duck, tail of a beaver, otter-like feet and a venomous spur on its hind leg.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/offbeat/climate-change-pushing-australias-platypus-towards-extinction-researchers/ar-BBZ8jaM

[RandoEFC+]

Trump has called climate activists "prophets of doom" today and stated that he'll protect the US economy from activists who apparently want total control to change everything about their economy.

[CaaC (John)+]

Locusts appearance in winter a new phenomenon may be linked to climate change: PAU

On Friday, locusts were spotted in some villages of Abohar and Muktsar. State officials have claimed that the locusts have been swarming-in from Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) Saturday said that there was no immediate threat of any full-blown locust attack in Punjab but constant monitoring and vigilance should be done by the farmers, especially in the border districts.

On Friday, locusts were spotted in some villages of Abohar and Muktsar. State officials have claimed that the locusts have been swarming-in from Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Dr PK Chhuneja, head, Department of Entomology, PAU said that the current spotting or detection of locust hoppers in small numbers or groups in Punjab do not carry serious threat but farmers need to guard against fresh incursions from across the border, in view of expected post-winter temperature rise and availability of crop vegetation over large contiguous area.

“The farmers of border districts must inform and inform PAU or Punjab Agriculture Department officials or the nearest locust circle office for any new incursions of the desert locust so that control measures if required can be taken up to control the menace,” Chhuneja said in a statement.

According to PAU, India has not witnessed any full-blown locust cycles after 1962, However, during 1978 and 1993, large scale upsurges were observed. Localized locust breeding has also been reported and controlled during 1998, 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2010. Since 2010, the situation remained calm and no major breeding and swarm formation was reported. However, the solitary phase of desert locust has been reported from time to time at some locations in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

The Locust Warning Organization (LWO) undertakes regular surveys in the scheduled desert area of Rajasthan and Gujarat to monitor the presence of desert locust and ecological conditions. During the survey, an assessment is made to determine, if the locust numbers have crossed the economic threshold level (ETL) which is 10,000 adults per hectare and 5-6 hoppers per bush that may require control.

In a statement, PAU experts further said that the immature, maturing adults and swarms of desert locust have been observed in some districts of Rajasthan and Gujarat since last month. The appearance of locust in winter months is a new phenomenon and may be linked to climate change events.

The surveillance by the PUA scientists university’s Regional Research Station at Abohar and officials of the Agriculture Department have revealed the presence of locust hoppers in small numbers or groups (of 5 to 20 hoppers) in districts of Fazilka, Sri Muktsar Sahib and Bathinda in Punjab.

These hoppers do not cause any economic damage to agricultural and horticultural crops unless they appear in swarms. Recent surveys have confirmed the presence of locust hoppers in small numbers in villages of Gumjal, Dangarkhera, Punjava, Panniwala Mahala, Arachiki, Bhangarkhera, Roopnagar, Bareka, Bakainwala, Haripura, Khuian Sarvar of district Fazilka and in Raniwala, Midda, Aspal, Virk Khera, Bhagsar and some other villages of Sri Muktsar Sahib.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/locusts-appearance-in-winter-a-new-phenomenon-may-be-linked-to-climate-change-pau-6236452/

 

 

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: Worst emissions scenario 'exceedingly unlikely'

The worst-case scenario for emissions of CO2 this century is no longer plausible say, researchers.

Referred to as "business as usual", the scenario assumes a 500% increase in the use of coal, which is now considered unlikely.

Climate models suggest that this level of carbon could see warming of up to 6C by 2100, with severe impacts.

Researchers say that on current trends, a rise in temperatures of around 3C is far more likely.

How has this confusion come about?

About 10 years ago, ahead of the fifth assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), researchers developed four different scenarios to describe how carbon emissions might change over the rest of this century.

One of these clumsily titled "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs), was called RCP8.5 and it was intended to show the impact of very high emissions consistent with a fivefold increase in the use of coal and virtually no policies to limit CO2 emissions.

RCP8.5 was first developed by energy researchers to help with their modelling. According to the authors of this paper, they didn't do a good job of communicating the limitations of this approach to climate scientists who wanted to use it to see what would happen with temperatures.

FULL REPORT

[CaaC (John)+]

World's biggest iceberg makes a run for it

The world's biggest iceberg is about to enter the open ocean.

A68, a colossus that broke free from the Antarctic in 2017, has pushed so far north it is now at the limit of the continent's perennial sea-ice.

When it calved, the berg had an area close to 6,000 sq km (2,300 sq mi) and has lost very little of its bulk over the past two and a half years.

But scientists say A68 will struggle to maintain its integrity when it reaches the Southern Ocean's rougher waters.

"With a thickness to length ratio akin to five sheets of A4, I am astonished that the ocean waves haven't already made ice cubes out of A68," said Prof Adrian Luckman from Swansea University, UK.

"If it survives for long as one piece when it moves beyond the edge of the sea-ice, I will be very surprised," he told BBC News.

• World's biggest iceberg is on the move
• 315 billion-tonne iceberg breaks off Antarctica
• 'No role' for the climate in Halley iceberg

FULL REPORT

 

[CaaC (John)+]

Climate change: Loss of bumblebees driven by 'climate chaos'

"Climate chaos" has caused widespread losses of bumblebees across continents, according to scientists.

A new analysis shows the likelihood of a bee being found in any given place in Europe and North America has declined by a third since the 1970s.

Climbing temperatures will increasingly cause declines, which are already more severe than previously thought, said, researchers.

Bumblebees are key pollinators of many fruits, vegetables and wild plants.

Without them, some crops could fail, reducing food for humans and countless other species.

Dr Tim Newbold of University College London (UCL) said there had been some previous research showing that bumblebee distributions are moving northwards in Europe and North America, "as you'd expect with climate change".

He added: "But this was the first time that we have been able to really tie local extinctions and colonisations of bumblebees to climate change, showing a really clear fingerprint of climate change in the declines that we've seen.

• New threats to wild bees identified

• Loss of British bees threatens food security

• World's biggest bee found alive.

Bumblebee declines are already more severe than previously thought, said lead researcher Peter Soroye of the University of Ottawa in Canada. "We've linked this to climate change - and more specifically to the extreme temperatures and the climate chaos that climate change is producing," he said.

"Bumblebees are among the most important plant pollinators. Declines in range and abundance have been documented from a range of causes, including pesticides, disease and habitat loss.

In the new study, researchers looked at more than half a million records of 66 bumblebee species from 1901 to 1974 and from 2000 to 2014.

They found bumblebee populations declined rapidly between 2000-2014: the likelihood of a site being occupied by bumblebees dropped by an average of over 30% compared with 1901-1974.

'Alarming' losses

Bees have been hardest hit in southern regions such as Spain and Mexico due to more frequent extreme warm years. And, while populations have expanded into cooler northern regions, this has not been enough to compensate for the losses.

Jonathan Bridle and Alexandra van Rensburg of the University of Bristol described the findings as "alarming". Commenting in the journal Science, they said: "The new study adds to a growing body of evidence for alarming, widespread losses of biodiversity and for rates of global change that now exceed the critical limits of ecosystem resilience."

There are around 250 species of bumblebee in the world. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), declines have been documented in Europe, North America, South America, and Asia caused by a variety of threats that range from habitat loss and degradation to diseases and pesticide use.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51375600

[Machado]

 

[Guest]

Greta is coming to Bristol on Friday. Might go and see what she has to say.