Dr. Gonzo

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/2/7327539/ Dunno how good of a source Pravda is - looks like it's currently owned by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation which makes me feel like this: But according to this report, "Ukraine has seized Russian military plans concerning the war against Ukraine from the 810th Brigade of the battalion tactical group of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Marines. These documents were approved on 18 January." These plans indicate that the war is (or was) meant to last just 15 days and they anticipated they'd have control of Ukraine by now. I think considering the slow progress the Russian army has made, with the high casualties due to Ukraine's stronger than anticipated resistance to invasion... coupled with the western backing Ukraine will be receiving for the entirety of the conflict & the implosion of Russia's economy post-invasion... there's no way this war just lasts 15 days unless Putin gives the order to pack it all in.

So in the aftermath of this invasion, Finland and Sweden want to join NATO & Ukraine and Georgia have submitted applications to join the EU

Saudis probably looking for their receipt to Newcastle to see if they can get a refund.

And many of them were told they were there as peacekeepers who'd be welcomed as liberators - not troops sent to invade. And some of the rations that captured troops have been found with are 20 years old and past their expiration date. I think low morale is a big reason Russia hasn't made gains as quickly as Putin would have hoped - and I think it's because a lot of kids are being forced to be invaders against their will. People want western media and even things like wikipedia blocked off from Russia, but I don't see the point in that... that just cuts Russians off from having sources outside the narrative state media is pushing. It seems counterintuitive to block Russians from having access to information from around the world if the goal is to get more of them to understand they're the aggressors in this war and if we want Russians to speak out against the war. And Russia already wants to block Wikipedia's entries on the invasion because Wikipedia's covering reports on how many civilian casualties there have been... so blocking Russians from Wikipedia access or sources that explain the invasion and the aftermath of the invasion... seems to play nicely into Putin's hands.

Isn’t that pretty expected, even though they’re just kids? It’s an opposition view in wartime Russia, while they’re also trying not to use the words war or invasion publicly. Then young kids start making peace protests outside their enemy’s embassy? No way an autocratic government allows a protest like that during war time, even if they are just children. Yeah its fucked up - authoritarian governments ARE fucked up

This desire some have to want to punish anything with a hint of Russian-ness for this is weird tbh. Yes illegal wars and war crimes are bad, nobody needs to convince me. But banning literature because it comes from Russia, centuries before this, is fucking stupid. Nothing more than absolutely fucking stupid. It’s also been weird/amusing seeing people and countries that are typically very anti-refugee be very quick to offer their support for refugees. I’d say it’s curious, but it’s not - it’s just been interesting seeing how this crisis has let the mask slip for so many people.

The most Tory club in the universe being state owned would be funny

They keep it funded because they have very high military spending (4-5% of their GDP on military spending), despite not having a massive GDP and a really low GDP per capita. The wealth gap in Russia between ordinary people and the elite is absolutely massive, staggering to what you'd imagine in the West. Russia's also faced economic tightening as a result of the sanctions put on it after their 2014 invasion of Ukraine when they seized Crimea. They can fund the military so well despite not having a massive GDP because they sit atop 30% of the world's natural resources: especially oil and natural gas. But funding the military well at the expense of things like infrastructure means - Russia's military spending is high, but it's at the expense of the overall Russian economy as a whole. Russia spend less than many countries do on their militaries... but spends a great deal of it's GDP on military spending. To put it into context, the next closest spender to Russia is the UK. In 2020, we spent $59.2 billion USD in military spending, translating to roughly 2.2% of our GDP. Russia, on the other hand, spent $61.7 billion USD on it's military. On the face of it, that's not much more than we spent... ...but that's almost 4.4% of their total GDP spent on the military in 2020. And as we know, they've got a smaller GDP than most countries their size do. These resources are also why Russia's presented such a problem for Europe to deal with. Europe, simply put, is reliant on natural gas exports - they keep houses warm in the winter. And their oil exports are of significance to the world - because when an oil exporter the size of Russia becomes cut off from most markets... well that raises the price of petrol for everyone. They can fund their military with these exports and it's also a form of political leverage with the rest of the continent - and it's really not until this invasion of Ukraine are we seeing Europe truly reevaluate the energy dependence it has on Russia. Couple that with Russia's historical importance to foreign policy in the modern world - Russia has the USSR's old permanent seat on the UNSC, which means even if they are no longer an economic powerhouse they will always be important world players - which is true of the UK if we ever have a significant economic crumbling - as long as the UN remains a thing. And they've also got an absolutely massive nuclear arsenal. So they've got reason to want to spend heavily on their military, despite it putting pressure on the rest of their economy. I am not so sure that their economy is self-sufficient enough for them to carry on the way they have without oil and natural gas exports, certainly not while waging an expensive war. It's one thing to spend so much when you've got so much oil and gas and have regular buyers for them. It's another thing to find yourself suddenly economically isolated when you've been relying on exports to fund your military for decades. I feel for ordinary Russians who will be probably most negatively impacted by the sanctions and who have no desire for war. These are people who've seen their currency turn worthless overnight and are seeing much of the world slam its doors shut on doing business with them - I think it will be very difficult for them. I've seen how difficult it can be for people in a country that's been isolated from the global economy for decades... I imagine it will be more sudden and damaging for people who've experienced only "minimal" sanctions generally targeted at oligarchs to suddenly find their economy isolated. But short of starting WW3, I'm not sure there's any sufficient serious response to make Putin and the Russian elite sweat other than this sudden and swift economic backlash against Russia. It's a shame to see that it will negatively impact so many Russian people... but it's not quite as negatively impacting them as much as Russia's negatively impacting the lives of innocent Ukrainians.

I think he's expected back for our match against Inter. We should be alright against Norwich without him. West Ham are a trickier opponent, but I have confidence in Keita/Elliott/Milner filling in.

I mean it's not surprising, but I do think it comes off as a bit insensitive... and it's not really a high priority, when you've got a nuclear power engaging in a war in Europe and acting increasingly desperate in the conflict as the invasion takes longer than anticipated. I'm more worried about it escalating into something bigger because we can't trust that Putin is an entirely rational actor right now than I'm worried about the inevitable rising cost of petrol. I don't think Putin's got any great outcomes here, he can either: Continue the invasion as planned and then have the costly occupation with the insurgency to follow, with the West likely to continue supplying Ukraine's resistance toRussian invasion/occupation... all while Russia grows increasingly isolated and its economy crumbles. And then it becomes a race to see whether Russia's economy can last longer than Ukraine can hold out in an expensive war. Back-off and look weaker to his people, but I think it's likely we would still see Russia sanctioned heavily for however long he's in charge - it doesn't really solve his "Russia is now economically isolated" problem; there really isn't a solution to this problem for him while he's still in power Escalate further: we've already seen this with the war crimes & deliberate bombing of civilians, it's meant to turn Ukrainian on their leaders to end their suffering. This likely isn't going to work and make opposition to Russia further, so if he keeps escalating I think we're eventually at a point where WW3 could start at any moment If Russia's economy keeps crumbling, he's the more money his oligarchs lose, and the more likely it is that someone in Putin's inner circle is more motivated to put a bullet in his head. Now I have no idea how likely that ultimately is, and I've heard Russian oligarchs have far less power over Russia's government than they did a decade ago. But I imagine the more he hurts Russia's elite, the more likely it is that the mafioso style of governance he's had over Russia can come back to bite him in the arse if he pisses off too many of his mafioso style buddies. Putting someone in a corner can take rationality out of their decision making, and that's a massive worry imo. Yet at the same time, the world doesn't have any real meaningful response to Russia's aggression without putting him in a corner. So while petrol prices going up is annoying as fuck... I don't think it should be what is shocking loads of people about this conflict.

I think chances are Milner will extend for another season (unless Leeds come calling perhaps), Keita or Oxlade-Chamberlain I think might be moved on so I think it's possible we replace them. But like @LFCMikesays, it's only just turned March and we're still in 3 competitions having just won one of the ones we were competing for. We're having a good season with the current squad and if everyone stays healthy this could be a very nice season for us if we get the right amount of luck.

The entire population of Burnley is left reeling from your comment.

Yeah, but you'd be surprised how many uneducated fuckwits there are in the world... this is where I live: https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/nation-world/ukraine/russian-restaurant-receives-threats/509-10693ba7-80b9-42c4-8d8f-423df35e72b8 It's a Russian restaraunt, owned by an Armenian-American, staffed by mostly Ukrainian-Americans (ironically) - and they've been getting lots of threats. And this is despite trying to raise money to send to Ukrainian charities...

It's happening already in the US. Death threats to an owners of various Russian restaurants/international markets that sell Russian stuff. This is the biggest problem with cultures that become obsessed with "identity politics" - they use various identities, like in this instance national/ethnic identity, to make wide sweeping allegations about everyone who might fall into that identity. Fear of the "other" is a powerful tool to manipulate people. Russian students abroad are just trying to get the best possible education they can get so they can give themselves the best shot in life, most Russians who live outside Russia fucking hate Putin and he's one of the reasons they left. It's very sad to see innocent people demonised because of the actions of an autocratic piece of shit like Putin. The actions of his government do not speak for all Russians, particularly not those Russians who've left Russia. Having said that, I understand why Russian clubs (especially the ones who have ties to state-ownership, or those that are outright state-owned) have been banned in this instance. And yes, I do think it's hypocritical considering when similar things happen elsewhere in the world, we don't see calls for the US, UK, NATO nations, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc... to be banned. And perhaps we should be calling for more international pressure to be applied in a similar fashion when world peace is brutally violated by various nations around the world. I think that's entirely reasonable to ask for. There's one thing the world should show continued unity for and that's peace - I don't think it's a bad thing that the world is attempting to economically punish Russia for this, I think that's a hell of a lot better than escalating tensions in a way that'll likely lead to WW3.

Many of their clubs are state owned or partially state owned - so hitting those clubs with bans winds up hitting the Russian state. It's unfair for many of the players, though... for sure.

Tbh I saw someone on CNN on the frontlines say some… pretty stupid shit about why this was so shocking. And it is shocking, I think everyone’s got a right to be shocked and appalled by Russia’s invasion. Especially with the recent footage of cluster munitions in Kharkiv. We should care about illegal wars and war crimes, absolutely. But it does make me annoyed at how they very much pick and choose what crimes against humanity they want to report on. Rather than giving the public a chance to know how fucked up the world really is.

@Aladdin I can’t help but feel this is how the Western media actually reports on things…

Yeah some of what the media has said as to why they care more about this conflict than others manage to be both cringe as fuck while also managing to come off as overtly racist. Honestly, it seems like every couple of weeks western media does something that just makes me shake my head and roll my eyes. Trump called Putin a genius for his invasion. People who think he’d stop this rather than just blow Putin are probably the same people who think that Trump is some kind of undercover pedo hunter… I think it’s funny Roman Abramovich has come forward saying he is trying to broker peace. But he’s one of Russia’s oligarchs that hasn’t come forward and condemned the war (and quite a few have). I’m pretty sure that’s just PR, but I do wonder if he’s feeling a bit guilty right now as he had a pretty big part to play in Putin’s rise.

Yeah either that or the 8 years of them fighting after that

Tbf Ukraine has also been saying that Russia is planning something for years

Germany and Italy having reluctance to cut Russia from SWIFT is disappointing. I hope they’ve got an alternative way of responding strongly to this that is serious yet not serious enough to escalate tensions and drag more countries into conflict.

Happy Birthday mate

This is a country that's recently been talked about potentially being in the EU and possibly joining NATO. It's also a conflict that's really flaring up after 8 years of fighting after Russia invaded Ukraine the last time around.

Yeah, if a NATO country is attacked, the rest of NATO will go to war with the attacker to defend it.

It depends if NATO gets involved militarily. Right now the West will probably be targeting Russia's finances - the EU's putting it's harshest ever sanctions in history on Russia, BoJo the clown and the Czech president have called for Russia to be kicked off the SWIFT banking system. War is expensive and I think people are thinking targeting Russia's ability to fund its war machine could cause Putin to stop this. But who knows if waging economic war is enough to stop Russia's aggression here.