Honey Honey

Looks like Phil

In London it takes less than 0.1% of local population to do that for those images and park experiences so it's hard to tell how many have given up. However from my personal unrepresentative sample 95% have broken the 1 person from each household can meet outside rule and all were aware they were breaking the rules. As with most things involving personal risk judgement, once the rule is broken and no consequences were observed it will be broken again, then again some more, then further and bigger. This is what has happened in the last few weeks and is usually how rule breaking forms. Be it driving over the speed limit or streaming illegal football. The twist with the virus is what Cummings is saying. The "exercise your own judgement" line. Ultimately that is what all the rule breakers I know believe they've been doing. Now that line is coming from a government source we are out of most of the lockdown and now argubly in a "common sense" phase, whatever that means.

Local park extremely busy again today, maybe as many as 1000 people. Police walking around looking confused and unsure of themselves. I've received an invite to yet another BBQ, same instigators as the last but this time with people from 7 or 8 different households. We just have to hope locking down businesses, offices and public transport is enough to suppress the R because at family and friend level the majority seem to have given up on the lockdown.

The only reason Grant Schapps is being brought out is because he hasn't had a hair cut so looks like he's been following the rules

That research was carried out before the Donkey story, not that the story will have any impact.

Key here is the public backers in the party and cabinet are almost publicly exposing how dependent they have been and are on Cummings for power. Don't forget Cummings by some suggested leaks played a role in driving Javid out. Sunak probably wouldn't have gotten that hot seat without playing by the rules Cummings was likely enforcing. Losing Cummings could cause the sort of vacuum that weakens some Cabinet members power. Sunak in particular has very little powerful Tory support behind him by the sounds of some accounts.

Argubly Calderwood is more comparable to Ferguson than Cummings. An easy push. Cummings is powerful, that is what we are seeing. He plays a key role in the power structure of Boris Johnson's Conservative Party. I'm not surprised they're wriggling to keep him. You say the force of public pressure isn't working on them but this will damage their image by not following social protocol. There are consequences to it, that's the whole point of it. The whole point of pushing is to avoid that under the premise that it all adds up eventually. Would they have made a different decision closer to an election? Most likely it is built into their judgement. Early polling already indicating 41% of those who voted Conservative 6 months ago think he should go. Lib Dem voters 72%, Labour 66%. 6% difference between those two likely resides im social class.

Popping up in the commentariat analysis has routinely been what election pivots are going on for at least the last 6 months if not more. The public not actively thinking about who to vote for doesn't really matter. For a governing power this is a key moment to ensure you go into the door knocking stage in control of the topics and with positive perceptions.

So your own first point that difference is about protecting perceptions of image was potentially bullshit according to yourself?

If anything on those lines more likely to do with being 6 months into a 5 year tenure versus SNP having elections next year.

Love it.

Statement out, see tweet for what was said. Or save yourself the hassle of what is next with these quick summaries Summary for normal people - The defence from no.10 has began claiming this wasn't against the rules. There needs to be a grilling of the claims. If it doesn't stand up they're in trouble. Summary for online mouth frothers - the disgusting far right BBC are doing the governments bidding again

Side effects include heavily bloated and covered in freckles

fuck me. 5 million human beings have the virus, human trials going on across the world, but there's labs with monkeys locked in cages being deliberately infected to see if they can get it again. This adds absolutely nothing to science.

I remember getting mixup's on the way to school every day with a scratch card in it The prizes were things like a box of eclairs, not £100,000 unfortunately.

Just got an email from Duncan Bannatyne asking me to sign a petition to reopen Gyms chancer

Classic civil service. From a couple of people I've spoken to in Westimster over the past couple of years they have been doing fuck all one week then working mad at scoping an idea that gets ditched the next week. Obviously it depends what department you're in.

If someone has symptoms they should be tested and then everybody they've been in contact with must isolate and potentially be tested. If the system is set up properly. I just don't see how offices can exist any time soon. The whole rotating staff is still a recipe for business disaster. Safest option is office staff don't mingle full stop.

Given that UK government has order 30 million vaccines for September on the condition the trials are successful I'd say there's no way UK can justify anything but suppression until that vaccine is ready or written off. They've committed to the idea that it can be ready in September.

I don't think Cummings line has much to do with it. That mainly gained traction in the FBPE bubble. If a vaccine is genuinely 4 or 5 months away then why would natural herd immunity be the right choice?

Herd immunity. They want to cocoon the vulnerable (the tactic that argubly didn't work in Sweden) whilst slowly infecting the community in a so called managed way with kids and their parents being considered as the utilitarian target. What is often forgotten is that the reason for lockdown in the west was not to stop the virus it was to prevent the health care service collapsing. Now health care hasn't collapsed the argument should be returning to a question of do you spread death out over time (Sweden, Netherlands) or is there a case for complete suppression (New Zealand, South Korea). The UK is so culturally toxic that we'll probably not have that conversation publicly, I expect the government will attempt some sort of PR balance.

Dutch version of SAGE openly had and want Schools opened in the Netherlands to help spread the virus.

I was in primary school so don't remember exact details of this but when my sister got chicken pox I recall my mum being eager for me to get it from her. My dad had to stay away from us for 2 weeks as he'd never had it. As for Sweden, I read this morning that the lead epidemiologists there are blaming care homes for Sweden's death count. They make up 50% of it. The Swedish public are also apparently polling in favour of the approach.

It's in the Mirror with quotes from the Welsh finance minister. Be odd if not true.

R rate in London is below 0.4. Fewer than 24 cases per day according to PHE and Cambridge University research.