Honey Honey

Moderna Inc vaccine 94.5% effective.

Tin foil sales must be through the roof in the States right now. Trump is the comedy gift that keeps on giving.

One thing that doesn't make sense to me, I know of someone who sat next to someone at school who later was tested positive for covid. Instead of being tested and isolating she was simply just made to go isolate. How can track and trace work when it only goes as far as isolating one layer and even then it was the school that decided that.

I personally doubt they'd have done it earlier. I see no reason to suggest this government would be the first to go back into lockdown. Nothing I've seen tells me they are leaders in this field. So much of the decision making correlates with the major moves on the continent and internationally, be it in locking down, opening up, face masks, etc. It's so common I find it hard to think of it as just a coincidence.

There's not much difference between Tier 2 and 3. On paper Tier 3 was largely designed as a last resort for student cities. The key thing about the tiers is the impact on the psyche of the community rather than what is on paper. People will do more than the guidance to protect themselves and others when they are told the risk is greater.

They're all just copying Wales

That's still half the rate in Liverpool, Manchester and some of the satellite towns in the North West. It's also lower than Bristol who somehow isn't in Tier 2. Mental. London's R rate is apparently 3 though. Coincidentally the same number of people who went into our office yesterday

To be honest there's not much difference between tier 2 and 3. Pretty senior people within SAGE don't think the tiers will work. A circuit break to get kids out of schools is highly likely. The key thing could be that the increase is gradual. In March and April it was almost bang overnight. Current numbers hospitalised is around a third of the peak, ventilators something around an eighth.

Risking a commentators curse there. Daily cases are doubling every other week in both those countries right now, same rate of growth as pretty much everywhere in Europe. Ireland have around the same rate of daily cases as most regions of the UK, in some cases more, probably only less than the North West.

The Royal Albert Hall is not back until December 9th. They are selling tickets. It might not happen. There isn't a single region in the UK that hasn't had an exponetional rise in cases in the last 2 weeks. We do not know if council jurisdiction level restrictions implemented recently are working. It's still possible that they're not severe enough. What does seem to be happening is that when cases rise in one local authority it inevitably spreads to neighbouring ones, sometimes as quickly as within two weeks. This may be the case even with local restrictions. So do you keep loosening an area until its cases rise exponentially or stay in caution if neighbours are rising? That leads to question of how far from a rising case area is far enough to start acting differently? We could be looking at 30-50 miles in some regions like the North East for example.

Although contrary to two of your points (1) there is most likely political value in being reasoned and appealing to intellect on the basis of statistically measured biases toward members of particular professions with such a reputation (e.g doctors and trust), (2) most Prime Ministers in our history are measured in their approach suggesting there is also something favourable in that, these two aren't really much to do with my actual point in question. As stressed at the start I am referring to the expression of crap that is detrimental to Labour being in power. It is important for that point to understand why and what that means. It means understanding who Labour needs to understand. From a very young age we learn to tailor our words and tone to achieve our own desired outcome from whomever we are encountering. Any functional adult is already consciously doing this with every interaction. Fluctuating in approach from one audience to another. This is no different. During the last few years of observation and conversations with a variety of type of Conservative voter, among those who I consider potential Labour votes there is a clear undercurrent whereby their Conservative support strengthens when people associated with Labour talk a particular derisory shite. The topic of which has to of course be a trigger for them. The reason they encounter this is because the speaker does not understand them and how it sounds to them. This could be out of ignorance or a failure on the speakers behalf to calculate that they need these people, be it immediately visible or over a prolonged time in subtle form. When talking about this particular audience, knowing what I believe I do about them I can't think of a worse type of response to what Johnson said about freedom for the Labour cause than putting down Britain in some way. The more shrewd responses for this audience appear to be those that aim to wrestle the idea of Britain from Johnson in a positive light, those emphasising the great compliance and effort of the nation. Johnson, by chance or on purpose seems to play some Labour associates to his advantage. Particularly when it comes to Brexit. This is an example of it in action. That he can say something which will trigger opponents and in turn that triggering reinforces his own support is quite something to watch. If they weren't easily triggered in the first place the comment probably would never have received coverage. It's mainly the fbpe clickbait outlets that initially spread what he said.

I never said anyone was attached to Starmer. I said that there is crap posted in here that is detrimental to the Starmer cause which is a Labour government. I've raised this before on here when Corbyn was incharge, the way some express certain attitudes around weak arguments is symbolic of what pushes people to Johnson. I'm also well aware that if I wanted to change someone's mind saying they talk crap would not be the way to do that. That itself is the same thing in a more crude form. This is a publishing platform. It can be read by members and guests who don't reply, but the posts sometimes look like the sort of bonding session 6 pints in I've had many times in Westminster and Soho. You start to talk crap and hatred that gets likes because there's no one to pull you up on it. It's not about agreeing with everything the Labour Party says. It's not about promoting their point regardless. It's about recognising you're associated with Labour, like it or not, and thus should be thinking on a publishing platform and is the argument tight enough to pull support in or is it pushing people away. It's no good contributing to a culture of pushing people away for years then complaining that the Conservatives won. Imagine you're a potential swing voter who went Conservative in 2019. Suspend your agenda and think about the reasons why. Think about the attitudes and thoughts that you can compromise on. That can be palatable. Think about what isn't palatable to them and whether you can be gentle around it without compromising your position. When Johnson said freedom loving the responses on here were weak arguments, the kind that reinforces the conservative vote.

There's about 10 absolute shite points on this page that are detrimental to the Starmer cause as well though, maybe because this seems to be seen as an anti-Tory safe space to shoot shite from the hip and not the public domain it actually is. The latest yougov Westminster poll has Labour and the Conservatives tied on 40% when don't knows are excluded. That is a whopping fall for Boris of 13% in 4 months and loss of a 20% lead. There's no such data cut as England. Data is cut instead by region as this makes more sense for homogeneity given the stark differences in regions within England. Scotland is considered a region. Conservative change is less there on the grounds there was less to lose in the first place I guess. Still, Labour's Westminster growth is non existent. The changing winds are coming from England and Wales.

I think it would be fair to argue that it can't be working if cases are rising exponentially. However, there was an overnight rapid jump in cases within 24-48 hours of some schools going back. If you are running something administrative like this which has a steady level then bang it doubles it is going to be so easy to fall behind the game.

Clusters of cases are tracked on a weekly basis through track and trace data. Main culprits of clusters are care homes by far, again, then schools, workplaces and restaurants. However most covid cases can't or aren't being traced to a cluster. Probably because of asymptomatic carriers. That's where or maybe why household restrictions come in. You tend to only hear in the news if a cluster is found, maybe in a factory or a pub.

North East rule is households can't mix full stop. Whether indoors, outdoors, at the pub, whatever. You might not get full compliance but most older people I know and hear of are following the new guidelines. Estimates in previous restrictions were for around 75-90% compliance. Highest compliance among over 60s. That was sufficient back then to work. It didn't stop the attempts to blame non-compliance and set things up as if a full beach is the problem. In some ways that chastising acts as a deterrent against more breaking the rules. If the new restrictions don't work then blame can't be at the door of non-compliance but rather the insufficent rules. Non-compliance should be priced in to any rules.

what a name

Ashley has appointed the most successful sports lawyer in the UK to take on the Premier League.

Your bosses sound all over the place there

Surprised at this but had an absolute shocker pre-season. Regularly injured.

Probably not getting the coverage it should but the club statement is huge. It's essentially saying the Premier League are liars. Court fees won't be cheap. Even if the buyers don't want it anymore the Premier League could be made to give millions to Mike Ashley.

I don't really get the whining to be honest. The previous rule was that only 2 households could mix. Including in restaurants, bars, parks. The Police don't have time to ask for everyone's address but counting numbers is straight forward. It's also not all or nothing. It might contradict on the surface that you can go to work but not have a big family meal but statistically stopping one does impact the R rate. You might get the desired fall without stopping both.

Here we go again

SAGE are absolutely shitting it as the virus increasingly looks like it soon can't be confined to local hotspots.