Dan's Tipping Game

[Stan]

Feel like there's some good games out there this weekend with good value. Was looking at Bournemouth 2Up, Stockport and over 2.5, Rangers -2 handicap, Arsenal/Liverpool BTTS and over 2.5, RB Leipzig 2Up, Madrid Derby over 60 booking pts. 

Eventually settled on this:

Somewhat inspired by @RandoEFC's corner counting for the A-league game. There's over 13 corners on average in Macarthur home league games so far (109 in total). And just over 10 corners in all Western Sydney away league games. Macarthur to have 7+ corners themselves was 5/1 but those odds seemed just too good to be true and it's not worth the risk!

 

Looked at various things for the Man Utd women's game too - to score 3, -2 handicap. Settled on just the over 2.5 as Brighton concede 2 goals per away game, whilst Man Utd score 2 per home game on average. 

[RandoEFC+]

17 minutes ago, Stan said:

Somewhat inspired by @RandoEFC's corner counting for the A-league game. There's over 13 corners on average in Macarthur home league games so far (109 in total). And just over 10 corners in all Western Sydney away league games. Macarthur to have 7+ corners themselves was 5/1 but those odds seemed just too good to be true and it's not worth the risk!

I haven't run this week's Aussie games through my algorithm yet but without fail, Macarthur games come out as expecting about 11 corners minimum every week. It's weird how entire leagues like Australia can be pretty good for corners. There's definitely some sort of culture in the tactics in different leagues that lead to high/low goals, corners, cards.

[Stan]

2 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I haven't run this week's Aussie games through my algorithm yet but without fail, Macarthur games come out as expecting about 11 corners minimum every week. It's weird how entire leagues like Australia can be pretty good for corners. There's definitely some sort of culture in the tactics in different leagues that lead to high/low goals, corners, cards.

They're not good enough to always score, or cross well, or defend efficiently

 

[Lucas]

Dortmund to win, BTTS 17/10

Leverkusen to win, over 2.5 Goals 4/6

£10 wins £45 (Paddy)

[Dan+]

Cheltenham are my first. Absurd price.

[Stan]

2 minutes ago, Dan said:

Cheltenham are my first. Absurd price.

Really? How come? 

I know Wycombe are hardly setting the league alight, but it's not a banker surely?

[Dan+]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Really? How come? 

I know Wycombe are hardly setting the league alight, but it's not a banker surely?

A banker they are not, I agree, but being priced as slight underdogs at home is crazy to me. You've got to remember that Cheltenham under Elliott got 1 point and 0 goals in their first 11 games yet have in Clarke's time had I think the 10th best record in the league while Wycombe are pretty clearly one of the worst sides in the division on the road.

Cheltenham's upturn under Clarke has been borderline miraclous. They are likely to survive this season despite the worst first quarter of a season on record.

If any Cheltenham fan reads this, I would like to apologise for tomorrow.

[Dan+]

I'm going to take a slightly different angle for my other.

So Cheltenham at 2.55 (31/20) is my first (that's come down).

The other is Burton v Lincoln to end in a draw at 3.25 (9/4). Part of this comes from something I've been doing lately, a process that I'm putting to the rest in picking games to end in draws. While it's obviously not flawless, I am finding a bit of an edge in backing draws if the odds imply there is both a little between the two teams and that there aren't likely to be many goals. This game ticks both boxes, with both being pretty impressively dour in recent weeks. Draws are risky, but the prices are fairly good on the whole, and I need some decent priced winners now so I think I'm going to be going up this route a bit.

£10 returns £82.88.

[RandoEFC+]

On 31/01/2024 at 22:43, RandoEFC said:

Nancy vs Cholet

Nancy sit 5th in the French third tier and host joint-bottom side Cholet on Friday evening. Nancy are far from perfect but are currently on a run of five consecutive wins after a poor run of form. Their home record for the season isn't great or terrible with 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat, but 2 of those three wins have come in their previous two home games. Cholet's form is the real selling point here. They've lost 9 of their last 11 games and 7 of their 8 away games all season, including their last five. Nancy also won the return fixture 2-0 back in August. I think 1.72 is a decent price here and it's already closed from 1.83 when I first looked this afternoon.

Never. In. Doubt. 

Nancy ️

Phonix Lubeck ️

[Dan+]

5 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Never. In. Doubt. 

Nancy ️

Phonix Lubeck ️

You've actually won.

Happened to spot this now by pure chance - I'll give you the same chance I gave to Stan. You can either cash in your winner as a single or you can pick something else to become a double.

[RandoEFC+]

5 hours ago, Dan said:

You've actually won.

Happened to spot this now by pure chance - I'll give you the same chance I gave to Stan. You can either cash in your winner as a single or you can pick something else to become a double.

I'll replace with Rotherham vs Southampton Over 9 Corners @ 1.53

[RandoEFC+]

11 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I'll replace with Rotherham vs Southampton Over 9 Corners @ 1.53

Gambled and won. 13 corners. 1.72 x 1.53 is 2.63 so +£16.30 for me this week.

[Dan+]

On 02/02/2024 at 16:45, Dan said:

I'm going to take a slightly different angle for my other.

So Cheltenham at 2.55 (31/20) is my first (that's come down).

The other is Burton v Lincoln to end in a draw at 3.25 (9/4). Part of this comes from something I've been doing lately, a process that I'm putting to the rest in picking games to end in draws. While it's obviously not flawless, I am finding a bit of an edge in backing draws if the odds imply there is both a little between the two teams and that there aren't likely to be many goals. This game ticks both boxes, with both being pretty impressively dour in recent weeks. Draws are risky, but the prices are fairly good on the whole, and I need some decent priced winners now so I think I'm going to be going up this route a bit.

£10 returns £82.88.

Fucking hell  

[Stan]

On 01/02/2024 at 13:21, Stan said:

. 

Eventually settled on this:

Somewhat inspired by @RandoEFC's corner counting for the A-league game. There's over 13 corners on average in Macarthur home league games so far (109 in total). And just over 10 corners in all Western Sydney away league games. Macarthur to have 7+ corners themselves was 5/1 but those odds seemed just too good to be true and it's not worth the risk!

Phew! Just about in. 10 corners after 50 mins, 12 after 75. Had to wait until the final 5 mins of normal time for it to come in. 

Macarthur had 8 themselves. 

[Stan]

Fuck you Man Utd and Brighton. Useless. 

[Dan+]

On 31/01/2024 at 03:02, Dan said:

 

WEEK 26 - SIX LOSERS FROM FIVE BETS!

WEEK 26 STATS
Winning bets: 0/5
Winning selections: 2/10
Weekly forum position: -£50.00 (Ranked 21/26)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 44/176
Winning selections: 151/332
Total forum position: -£354.91

 

This really was an absolute shocker of a week with an astoundingly low number of selections landing, not a single player winning a bet and to really rub salt into the wound, I've discovered another accounting fault which has penalised one player in particular.

I'll get that bit out of the way. @RandoEFC is £20 down on last week rather than the £10 the table says, and moves down to 8th, as I've missed off a previous loss unfortunately. To really rub salt in the wound, I can't seem to land anything where I put my money where my mouth is, and yet;

The corners pick was one of only two single selections to land this weekend, but the Serie B game that promised goals actually delivered a Serie B game. A double whammy.

@CaaC (John) continues his poor form with a sixth straight loss, no magic of the cup this time as neither Villa or Spurs managed even a goal, let alone a win in their ties. Starting to wonder if the ultra long shots are worth a return!

@Stan's winning run is over following a double blank. Devante Cole blanking for Barnsley in their loss to Exeter, and Juventus remarkably failing to beat an abject Empoli at home, though two things of note from that game - Arkadiusz Milik was sent off in the first half for Juventus, and Empoli have just appointed the man who is supposedly the survival specialist of Italy and in truth, his record stacks up. In 2016/17 he kept Crotone up from a position of having just 9 points from their opening 19 games, and in 2021/22 he did similarly at Salternitana. He's taken over Empoli in similarly dire straits, so they may well be a team to keep an eye on now - even if this result was probably a bit lucky.

Then we come to the slightly more controversial. I've decided due to fairness that I agree with @Lucas in that we won't include things such as acca boost or 2 goal payout, as we had our first instance all season this weekend of a bet that would've lost in a regular form, but won on Bet365's early payout. It was settled however when Senegal blew it against Ivory Coast, a result that also sank myself. It was written, but in truth, Senegal really didn't turn up at all and despite taking a very early lead they just didn't really do anything, they sat in and hoped to never be broken down, a risky strategy that backfired. In the twist of twists, Ivory Coast are now the second favourites to win the whole thing!

So yeah, a really rubbish week on the whole, unfortunately.

WEEK 27 - MARGINAL GAINS

WEEK 27 STATS
Winning bets: 2/5
Winning selections: 5/10
Weekly forum position: +£4.11 (Ranked 10/27)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 46/181
Winning selections: 156/342
Total forum position: -£350.80

 

We seem to go up and down but the problem all season is that the downs are more extreme than the ups, so while this ranks as a decent week, it doesn't come near to wiping out the heavy loss of last week, although it's an upturn at least.

@Lucas slips further behind the leader with his fourth loss on the bounce. The ever unreliable Dortmund delivering a 0-0 draw at Heidenheim, while the increasingly impressive Bayer Leverkusen strolled to a victory but didn't really bring the goals, so it's a double loser this week.

The only change in the table is @Stan dropping back down to 6th following one of the most infuriating losses of the season. Having landed the generously priced A-League corners bet by the skin of his teeth, he was let down by Man Utd Women's 2-0 victory over Brighton Women not yielding the goals.

@CaaC (John) in nice and early as ever with his prediction and makes no mistake this time out - two Premier League favourites who both racked up heavy victories over badly faltering teams for his first win since the week before Christmas.

@RandoEFC is saved by a last gasp winner in France before I discover his second selection is postponed. The replacement of Rotherham v Southampton corners pays out fairly comfortably, for a nice winner.

Mine was an optimistic double but once again, just no luck whatsoever. Cheltenham reverted to their early season woes delivering probably their worst result under Clarke, while the Burton Lincoln non-draw barely mattered by this point. I think if I told somebody that this season if I was around 50 points up on the actual selections I've placed nobody would believe me on this evidence. It's almost impressive to land only 1 pick out of 27 - a complete calamity of a season no matter how it's dressed up. Almost impossibly bad form.

[Dan+]

So I said during the Burton Lincoln pick that I'd be doing this method to back draws and honestly, I think there's genuinely a bit of an edge here. I've got a sample size of around 100 games now and it's around 14 points up. Look for tight odds and games the bookies think will be low scoring, and I'm finding you will win more than a third of the time (which is all you need if you make sure your minimum odds are 2/1).

I think I'm quite likely to do a few draw doubles in here now unless I find something I can't resist.

[CaaC (John)]

Saturday 10th February - Championship

Week 27

Ipswich Town v WBA (Ipswich to win)
Middlesbrough v Bristol City (Score Draw)

[Lucas]

On 06/02/2024 at 05:14, CaaC (John) said:

Saturday 10th February - Championship

Week 27

Brighton v WBA (Brighton to win)
Middlesbrough v Bristol City (Score Draw)

When did Brighton get relegated? 

[CaaC (John)]

1 hour ago, Lucas said:

When did Brighton get relegated? 

Whoops, fixed, I meant Ipswich Town  

[Dan+]

On 06/02/2024 at 05:14, CaaC (John) said:

Saturday 10th February - Championship

Week 27

Ipswich Town v WBA (Ipswich to win) - 11/10
Middlesbrough v Bristol City (Score Draw) - 9/2

I've added the odds to this one - because when odds aren't usually provided I just go off what flash scores says it was last, and there's no way I'd be able to find that bottom one.

So a win here would return you £115.50.

[Dan+]

Bloody annoyed. Had two selections I was considering and the prices for both have absolutely tumbled  good sign I suppose.

I will probably still take Salford at Swindon at 7/5. The other was Partick Thisle to beat Livingston. That's gone from literally about 11/5 to 6/5.

[Dan+]

11 hours ago, Dan said:

Bloody annoyed. Had two selections I was considering and the prices for both have absolutely tumbled  good sign I suppose.

I will probably still take Salford at Swindon at 7/5. The other was Partick Thisle to beat Livingston. That's gone from literally about 11/5 to 6/5.

You know what - I'll take this with Cardiff v Preston draw at 11/5.

Cardiff v Preston fills the criteria for my draw. Odds imply very little between the two teams, two fairly low scoring sides where under 2.5 goals is heavily favoured. I think 11/5 is therefore overpriced.

Swindon have been pretty rank for weeks and Salford seem to have reverted to the level of last season following a managerial change - they've looked frankly a play-off level side in the last month or so. I think even despite the dropped price this is quite good value at 7/5.

Cardiff v Preston - Draw @ 3.20
Swindon v Salford @ 2.45

£10 returns £78.40.

[RandoEFC+]

First leg: Dusseldorf have seen BTTS in 8 of their 10 home games this season and Elversberg have in 8/10 away games. There have been a few 1-1s in there but the Over 2 goals should be good. Dusseldorf average 3.6 match goals this season and 3.25 for Elversberg.

Second leg: Taunton really suck on the road with five defeats and a couple of 0-0s in their last seven. St Albans sit in the playoff places in the National League South and are on a good run with 7 wins and just 1 defeat in their last eleven. 1.65 seems a good price for them to see Taunton off.

[Lucas]

Gonna have another go at a win and BTTS, but 100% avoiding PSG

Tottenham to win, BTTS 13/8

Real Madrid to win, BTTS 7/5

£10 wins £63 (Paddy Power)

Edited February 9 by Lucas