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PL 2023/24 - Race for Europe


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Wolves & Brighton's drop in form has pretty much ended their hopes of European football next season. Wolves without a win in their last 6, Brighton their last 5. 

Villa capitalised on gaining more points while Tottenham didn't play, but the North London club have a chance to catch up with an extra London derby in midweek vs Chelsea. Chelsea can do their own catching up in that game should any of the clubs directly above them drop points at the weekend.

The top 3 change up again and Liverpool lose ground following their Merseyside Derby loss, whilst Man City and Arsenal picked up resounding wins in midweek. It could all change again this weekend, as there's a North London derby to pick through and a few sides facing opponents who have their own survival battles to contend with...

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I didn't realise how many players Brighton have out injured at the moment, it's about 6 or 7 of their starting eleven, certainly goes some way to explaining their bad run of form. 

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I have to say, I'm not sure Villa are 'ready' to be in the Champions League, but as they've never been in the modern day version, which is about to update again next year, we may as well be there if we can. Even if just to get a few autographs, selfies & visit a few Euro giants.

I did feel Spurs were capable of losing to Newcastle, Arsenal & Chelsea, with Anfield still ahead, but it's still been quite surprising to not see them even get a draw or 2. And to an extent that Villa got better Arsenal & Chelsea results.

Spurs loss at Anfield would leave them with 9 points to aim for. Villa win at Brighton takes them 10 ahead. The 3 team race between Man United, Newcastle & Chelsea looking a much closer race.

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Arsenal strengthened their grip on 1st place with two massive derby wins, one of those being against arch rivals Spurs, and in doing so actually damaged their opponents chances of a top 4 finish. Although Villa couldn't capitalise on that fully, the gap does extend to 7 points, and they look likely to finish in the top 4 to secure a CL spot. Liverpool are all but out of the title race after dropping points against West Ham. Man Utd surprisingly dropped points against Burnley, which allowed Newcastle to close the gap on 6th place to just 1 point. Chelsea continue their march towards a European place after doing the double over Spurs and now they have another London derby to contend with...

The top 3 all have home games once again, but it seems like the Spurs vs Man City game is becoming ever more important to determine where the title may go...

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Arsenal need to win out and hope city drop points, which is not looking great and between man united or Spurs, relying on either team is not a good way to hedge bets, man united are more capable of stunting arsenal than Spurs are of City, this is not the Conte first season Spurs that were resilient, this spurs team is more open than a porn star.

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It's heading down to the final day it seems in the race for the title. Arsenal and Man City march on with ease in the race for first, and Tottenham once again will have a say in proceedings in this coming gameweek. It's probably too little too late for Liverpool despite beating Spurs. Despite Villa losing and their form dropping, they look to have secured 4th place thanks to Spurs' even worse form.

The race for European football for one of Newcastle, Chelsea and Man Utd heats up even further - two of the sides had very convincing wins, while Man Utd suffered an embarrassing defeat at Palace to weaken their cause. West Ham played themselves out of European football next season and they are pretty much 'on the beach'. 

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And here we are at the final games! Man City clawed back control to have 1st place and have their destiny in their own hands going into the final game by beating Fulham & Spurs. Liverpool already had 3rd place sewn up. Villa salvaged a draw over the Reds, but had to wait for Spurs to falter against Man City to confirm a top 4 place.

Now it's between Spurs/Chelsea/Newcastle/Man Utd to see who will be playing in the Europa League or Europa Conference League...

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It's worth noting that if Man City win the FA Cup, a Europa League spot is given to 6th place. And as Liverpool won the EFL Cup, 7th place will have a Europa Conference League placing.

- Tottenham just need to match Chelsea's result to confirm 5th place and a guaranteed Europa League place

- Chelsea need to win and overturn a 10-goal deficit to finish 5th. To secure 6th, they need to make sure they match Newcastle's & Man Utd's results.

- Newcastle can jump up to 6th place if they win and Chelsea lose, and potentially play in the Europa League if Man City win the FA Cup. They will stay in 7th if they match Man Utd's result

- Man Utd can go up to 7th if they win and Newcastle draw/lose, or they draw and Newcastle lose. Man Utd would get a Europa Conference League spot if they finish in 7th should they fail to win the FA Cup. They will qualify for the Europa League regardless of their league finish if they win the FA Cup. 

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