Dan

Desperation

On 29/04/2024 at 09:45, Stan said:

Friday 3rd May, 2024
Luton 2-2 Everton, 20.00

Saturday 4th May, 2024
Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth, 12.30
Brentford 2-1 Fulham
Burnley 1-1 Newcastle
Sheff Utd 1-1 Nottm Forest
Man City 3-0 Wolves, 17.30

Sunday 5th May, 2024
Brighton 3-2 Aston Villa, 14.30
Chelsea 2-1 West Ham, 14.30
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham, 16.30

Monday 6th May, 2024
Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd, 20.00

The Tielemans situation was a pretty good encapsulation of everything that has played out here in the last few years in that he was very good sometimes, ultimately didn't commit to us after the FA Cup win and at that point we should've been looking to sell even if it would've been an unpopular decision. He ended up running his contract down, going for nothing and was largely disappointing in the final two years anyway, so keeping him gained us absolutely nothing.

Vardy will stay and at this point I think it's a bit of a no brainer providing the wages are a bit more manageable. I don't think in our situation you can just overlook him getting 18 goals in this league. That's more than he got in 2014 when we got promoted and he was the focal point of everything that year.

This last couple of weeks has been very enjoyable. After the Plymouth game I really did think we were bust and stuck in the Championship for the foreseeable, going very much the same way as last years side where they crumble under the pressure. We have been let off the hook somewhat by the dip in form of Leeds and Ipswich, but they did step up in the last few games as well. Worthy winners in the end.

I'm under no illusions that next season is going to be for the faint hearted. It's going to be pretty brutal. The hierarchy here haven't exactly done a lot to earn any trust this season. I don't think they're just going to get smart all of a sudden. But hopefully Maresca and our recruitment team can work a few bits of magic. We're almost certainly going to be hit with a points deduction and we're going to have to make some fairly substantial sales soon just to ensure we don't face further punishments. But I would imagine they will see what pans out with Everton and Forest before committing to anything. We're going to make some pretty unpopular decisions in the next couple of months, but ones as a result of our own mismanagement (and the rules which are obviously nonsense as well for what it's worth). Dewsbury-Hall almost certainly will be sold and others will follow. I've got this vision that we end up buying Fatawu and immediately having to sell him.

Feels like a job done to me rather than anything groundbreaking. I'd look over to Ipswich for that kind of thing. But the last couple of games against Southampton and Preston were two of the most enjoyable I've been to in years and I'm glad we've got some proper memories out of it.

I'm absolutely never going to be somebody who aims downwards in football and I don't want to become a lower league snob but it is quite something to have everybody going on about more VAR farce in the PL game while I've just watched a fantastic Championship game that didn't have it. It's just so bad. I don't think there's any iteration of it where this won't be the case.

Total waste of time. It was entirely predictable too.

They're almost certainly going to hit 100 conceded as well.

On 23/04/2024 at 16:41, Dan said:

Feel this could backfire on me but sod it PSG.

Fucking sick of my luck at this honestly. Knew the cunts would bottle it against 'bottom of the league at home'.

I have to hold my hands up on Anthony Gordon. Was quite critical of that signing when compared to Barnes in the summer but he's been fantastic this season. I'd have him at the Euros over someone like Rashford.

I did think one of our best hopes into this run in was that Leeds' ability to choke is genuinely bigger than ours. I've still not forgotten that Derby loss. Barely believable.

A job done for us. Been a strange season and experience, but we're there now and we've ultimately done what we had to. Lets get to 100 points and lets get that record second tier trophy because why not.

Never in doubt

Job done. Will give a proper post on this when I can be arsed. Been a quite peculiar one this - a weird, but funny way to do it.

I just don't get how losing what were key players on frees has become so normalised here. Do other clubs have this issue? This is going to be Soyuncu, Tielemans, Perez, Ndidi, Iheanacho and probably others I've missed all going for nothing. When did we get this bad at doing this?

Had a strange career Ndidi. Like many of them there's been a dropoff from initial promise. Another player who was touted for a lot better, losing him on a free to Palace isn't quite how I envisaged the departure once upon a time.

On 22/04/2024 at 09:28, Stan said:

Saturday 27th April, 2024
West Ham 1-2 Liverpool, 12.30
Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace
Man Utd 1-1 Burnley
Newcastle 5-0 Sheff Utd
Wolves 2-0 Luton
Everton 1-1 Brentford, 17.30
Aston Villa 3-1 Chelsea, 20.00

Sunday 28th April, 2024
Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton, 14.00
Tottenham 0-2 Arsenal, 14.00
Nottm Forest 1-2 Man City, 16.30

Thursday 2nd May, 2024
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham, 20.00

This time of the season brings around one of my favourite markets and it's the second half goals market. I think this is simply overpriced as they tend to price this as 2/1 for the 1st half and evens for the 2nd half. Well this is very situation driven - Huddersfield v Birmingham given the fact both sides need to win I think is almost certainly going to be cagey in the first half and then chaotic in the second. I think there's a very decent chance it's goalless at half time but hardly any chance it ends that way. Not a guaranteed winner, but I'd say that would play out more than 50% of the time, making 2.05 good value.

Sassuolo is a bit of a long shot but I need them at this point. Fiorentina will be throwing everything at their European semi final and will likely rest players for this game, while Sassuolo need a win in the fight against relegation. I expect that price to come down a bit before it starts.

On 05/04/2024 at 01:12, Dan said:

WEEK 35 - SLIGHTLY BETTER

WEEK 35 STATS
Winning bets: 1 / 5
Winning selections: 5 / 10
Weekly forum position: -£21.20 (Ranked 20/35)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 56 / 221
Winning selections: 181 / 407
Total forum position: -£412.34

WEEKS 36, 37 & 38

Been really busy lately so not had loads of chance to do these, appreciate its made it all a bit crapper though as you can tell by the lack of uptake in week 37. I've posted another 3 losses which is no surprise, as has @Stan who has joined me in the tirade of cynicism to try and get Leicester over the line, which seems to have actually done the trick. Kudos to both @RandoEFC & @CaaC (John) who profited during this period and real props to Rando for the picks on week 38 which are frankly hilarious. But the obvious winner, and very likely title winner now is @Lucas who posts two big wins and have put him over £100 clear at the top of the league.

Me, @Machado, @Storts, @...Dan and @CaaC (John) all have our £25 bet to use. There are six weeks left so it isn't over yet. Some of us are looking great. Lucas is the first player who guarantees to finish in profit this season given he has no £25 left. @Pyfish is very close as well. Some of us need a bit more to go our way, and some of us who will go unnamed need frankly a miracle, so we, all one of us, are entering silly long shot stage.

Ipswich will be wanting a Coventry win tonight and then hope that Coventry drop points at the weekend - meaning that they would face both Hull and Coventry away in essentially dead rubbers.

I'd love to see the athletic or somebody do a proper study into 'on the beach' and 'dead rubber' statistics. I'm a bit of a football gambler and I've been wondering if there's actually a bit of an edge in backing those sorts of teams. For example Cardiff at the weekend were 9/1 to beat Southampton at home. We all fancied a Southampton win, but is that price not massively juiced up beyond reality? I think in reality they should've never been 'that' big.

I'm buzzing for Preston away on Monday. Funny sport isn't it football. The Millwall and Plymouth week was such a dire pair of showings from us entirely indicative of the sorts of end of season collapses we've suffered in recent years almost habitually at this point. Leeds & Ipswich let us off those results entirely. We got a bit lucky against West Brom but last night was just fantastic - it's added some glory to proceedings again where it felt before almost a bit embarrassing.

We've absolutely belted Southampton home and away this season. I do find it interesting how we 'still' seem to be a better team without the ball when we play on the break. That's actually quite encouraging for me ahead of next season where we would have a lot less of the ball.

Southampton set up uniquely badly against us in both games which once again vindicates my belief that Martin is a bit of a cretin. I know it's not really his mantra to stifle teams but if they went up under him I could see them getting some absolute spitroastings next season. I mean I can of us, let alone them.

*if* we are promoted of course. I'm about 95% sure we're up now but I do wonder if people will get the jitters again should Leeds & Ipswich both win at the weekend. Preston's setup will be the polar opposite to Southampton. No team played further into our hands this season than them. Basically what I'm saying is Preston beating us 1-0 wouldn't flabbergast me.

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

No it's true. One of Boehly's other companies bought a hotel off Chelsea for £70m. Apparently Chelsea can prove it's that valuable so it's fine and the whole conflict of interest/money laundering through a different company angle just isn't covered seemingly.

I'm not knocking Chelsea for doing this if that is the case, but again - just what is the point if you can bypass it with this sort of nonsense.

Boring that yet another topic has become about this but it's the inescapable bleak reality of this situation. I'm in a tough position on Leicester. I want to hold those responsible accountable for their utterly dreadful and irresponsible dealings, but I also think they're operating within utterly farcical parameters - particularly given the Chelsea case.

If it's true that Chelsea aren't going to be done because of selling hotels to themselves or whatnot then they need to abolish the rules and reinstate all the docked points immediately. But that's one of those things that's so stupid I wonder if I've just fallen for some bait on Twitter.

Yeah if we can't go up from here it's time to pack it up and call it a day. I think we could quite likely lose the last two and still go up from here tbh.

Fatawu's the best prospect we've had in a long time. Lots of talk from Sporting fans that they've made a fuckup on the scale of Palhinha / Raphinha by letting him come to us. He's had basically everything but the goals this season, if they've arrived too then happy days. I've no idea what sort of spend we're looking at next season but even despite our situation I'm good with us paying the money for him because he's worth far more.

Fucking get in there. What a great night that was.

Feel this could backfire on me but sod it PSG.

6 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

You have to go a long way to put "Everton" and "lucky" in the same sentence over the past few years. I'm mostly of the same school of thought but this football club has become absolutely allergic to being anywhere other than 15th-17th in the table. A part of me genuinely believes that if we'd have had the 6 point penalty last season then we'd have just found an extra two wins and if we'd have been deducted 2 points this season instead of 8 then we'd have just lost two extra games and ended up in the same position. Like you say, we've developed a knack of finding a win when we most need it but we also have a massive knack of failing to win any match that would see us climb to 13th/14th and allow the fanbase to actually sleep well for a couple of weeks.

I admire what Luton have done of course. There's a lot of base sympathy for the underdog. But I also think their fans and the people involved with the club are just as big of a set of twats as everyone else and the fact that their squad costs naff all and their matches have a lot of goals in them doesn't change that. They were one of the worst fan-bases to come up to Goodison (twice) this season singing "feed the scousers" and "bin-dippers" and whatever else they think is funny. This attempted media narrative and their owner thinking that they've been hard done by because Everton have "only" been deducted 8 points when they're the only team in Premier League history to fight for survival against two teams that have had points removed is a bit hard to swallow as well.

Not to do them down too much. They've punched above their weight and have certainly made a mockery of Burnley's attempt to stay in the league. I'd also rather see Luton stay up than Forest, especially after Forest's antics in the last few days and earlier this season. I'd also rather be competing against Luton when we're inevitably in another relegation fight next season because as entertaining as their matches are, as a relegation rival I'm quite glad to know that Luton can go into any given game and are probably going to concede anything between 3 and 5 goals. Hopefully for their sake, Danny is right and at least that style of play will see them fetch some good fees for the attacking players who have been allowed to put up some decent numbers as a result.

It's the one particular point about points deductions and the timing. You couldn't have had a better year to have it - this is pretty much certainly the worst bottom three there's ever been and like I say, if we get one next season (which I'm pretty sure we are going to) then I highly doubt we're going to have this luxury. It'd probably be in our interests for Ipswich and Norwich to come up with us.

Been thinking a bit about this Southampton game and have come to the conclusion that we should absolutely go for the win - and I don't mean in that you wouldn't want to do that every game anyway, but to me the drawback of losing rather than drawing isn't actually all that great.

We need 6 points from 3 games to guarantee promotion. A draw would mean we could still need to beat Preston and Blackburn to get promoted, so there is potentially nothing in a draw for us. Given a draw kills Southampton's admittedly tiny automatic chances too I'd say late goals are likely.

I think we will get promoted but I am totally braced for a scenario where we go to Preston in 3rd place and freeze in the face of another limited, savvy team - a draw against Southampton does not prevent this situation either.

If we beat Southampton we are up barring an absolute catastrophe I think.

We really are due to turn up on one of these pressure nights. I'm fed up of us floundering under every one of them. It's been years. The good thing is that Martin's style isn't really about frustrating. I expect a pretty entertaining game, could be pretty chaotic in all honesty if the first meeting is anything to go by. I think that will probably suit our crowd, who've proven this season they really don't react whatsoever to patient football but absolutely will if there's a bit of chaos.

On 21/04/2024 at 14:12, Danny said:

In fairness to Luton the way they’ve played it they will likely make a bit of money in the Summer from sales and get to re-invest and go again, obviously they will make good use of parachute payments too.

Luton fan I work with has said to me for years if they ever made it to the Premier League they would treat it as a cash cow to get themselves in order, to sort out a new stadium etc... and that they would not make any serious fist of survival. To have that go up alongside a calamity Sheffield United and a Burnley side who've badly underperformed. Forest and Everton are lucky their deductions have come this season. I expect us to hit one next year and we're not getting this sort of luxury.

I do think Luton will be back and they've been good value for the league, they're a genuinely fun team. Probably the nearest thing to Holloway's Blackpool. I just hope they have a slightly better legacy - I think they will though. They haven't been promoted four times in ten years by being daft. Got a lot of time for Luton.

I'm probably far more resigned to Forest's survival than I should be given the points difference. Luton's games really aren't that bad. But I just have no faith in them to deliver and Forest have already developed the Everton syndrome of always getting the result when they need it most.

I bet Forest fudge both of those away games then go and beat Chelsea or some other bullshit.

Don't like the fact Leeds are back in the goals. That's the real confidence booster after a few games of bluntness in front of goal. Middlesbrough absolutely woeful defensively.

A bad result for us but will at least feel a bit more rewarding to do it now. Enormous game tomorrow night.