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F1 2021 - Russian GP - 24-26th September


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Wet qualifying always increases the risk factor for the frontrunners. You could see another Spa-type qualifying with a few surprises. It's not out of the question that Hamilton could end up 4th or 5th so perhaps that factors into Red Bull's decision process as it helps them with damage limitation if that happens. In reality, we're very likely to see a Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. Max could easily get to 3rd if he finds overtaking easy. If he ends up stuck in traffic for large portions of the race, more like 5th or 6th behind a couple of McLarens or Ferraris. If Perez is ahead they'll bring him in and get him to secure the fastest lap. You tend to get a few retirements here with the walls relatively close. There's a huge range of potential results for Max to be honest.

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39 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Wet qualifying always increases the risk factor for the frontrunners. You could see another Spa-type qualifying with a few surprises. It's not out of the question that Hamilton could end up 4th or 5th so perhaps that factors into Red Bull's decision process as it helps them with damage limitation if that happens. In reality, we're very likely to see a Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. Max could easily get to 3rd if he finds overtaking easy. If he ends up stuck in traffic for large portions of the race, more like 5th or 6th behind a couple of McLarens or Ferraris. If Perez is ahead they'll bring him in and get him to secure the fastest lap. You tend to get a few retirements here with the walls relatively close. There's a huge range of potential results for Max to be honest.

Starting from the back in my opinion isn't the stroll it used to be. Unless he really gets through the pack quickly. The Ferraris and especially the Mclarens should have opened an gap unless they get stuck in traffic. Plus if Max really pushes who knows what his tire drag will be like. I have a feeling if it's a full wet race that he'll crash out while driving through the pack.

Truth is it can go many ways.

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48 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Wet qualifying always increases the risk factor for the frontrunners. You could see another Spa-type qualifying with a few surprises. It's not out of the question that Hamilton could end up 4th or 5th so perhaps that factors into Red Bull's decision process as it helps them with damage limitation if that happens. In reality, we're very likely to see a Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. Max could easily get to 3rd if he finds overtaking easy. If he ends up stuck in traffic for large portions of the race, more like 5th or 6th behind a couple of McLarens or Ferraris. If Perez is ahead they'll bring him in and get him to secure the fastest lap. You tend to get a few retirements here with the walls relatively close. There's a huge range of potential results for Max to be honest.

 

5 minutes ago, MUFC said:

Starting from the back in my opinion isn't the stroll it used to be. Unless he really gets through the pack quickly. The Ferraris and especially the Mclarens should have opened an gap unless they get stuck in traffic. Plus if Max really pushes who knows what his tire drag will be like. I have a feeling if it's a full wet race that he'll crash out while driving through the pack.

Truth is it can go many ways.

Is Russia 'easy' to overtake on?

Also, Leclerc starts from the back of the grid too so can't imagine it would be that easy to overtake him as well in the first instance. 

 

Wouldn't surprise me if we see an early Mazespin which affects Max's chances of getting through the pack at speed...

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27 minutes ago, Stan said:

 

Is Russia 'easy' to overtake on?

Also, Leclerc starts from the back of the grid too so can't imagine it would be that easy to overtake him as well in the first instance. 

 

Wouldn't surprise me if we see an early Mazespin which affects Max's chances of getting through the pack at speed...

The other factor is in a wet qualifying there's also an increased chance of Verstappen having a bad day if they time it wrong or he makes a mistake.

I don't think Leclerc starting back there is a problem for Red Bull. If it turns out easy to overtake then they'll both cruise through the pack. If not then Max would have to bide his time with or without Leclerc around. Worse for Red Bull would be Leclerc starting 4th and spending 40+ laps in clean air and getting 25 seconds clear before Max finds clear air in the closing stages.

We'll see how easy it is to overtake. The main straight DRS can be overpowered here if you've got the pace advantage, and it's possible to overtake into turn 4 if you take a different line through the long turn 3. I'd have thought Verstappen won't have too much trouble until he gets up to the McLarens and Ferraris. If there's another wet race then anything can happen. 

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1 hour ago, Stan said:

 

Is Russia 'easy' to overtake on?

Also, Leclerc starts from the back of the grid too so can't imagine it would be that easy to overtake him as well in the first instance. 

 

Wouldn't surprise me if we see an early Mazespin which affects Max's chances of getting through the pack at speed...

Russia in peoples list of tracks is always in the bottom 5. Regarding the overtaking potential, it has 2 really long DRS straights. On paper this should result in plenty of overtaking. But it isn't really the case. The 2 long DRs straights aren't purely straight. The kind of curve which makes it slightly difficult to pass on. But if it's full wet it should be a decent race. Look at the track layout below to see what I mean by the straights having a curve. 

image.png

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50 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

The other factor is in a wet qualifying there's also an increased chance of Verstappen having a bad day if they time it wrong or he makes a mistake.

I don't think Leclerc starting back there is a problem for Red Bull. If it turns out easy to overtake then they'll both cruise through the pack. If not then Max would have to bide his time with or without Leclerc around. Worse for Red Bull would be Leclerc starting 4th and spending 40+ laps in clean air and getting 25 seconds clear before Max finds clear air in the closing stages.

We'll see how easy it is to overtake. The main straight DRS can be overpowered here if you've got the pace advantage, and it's possible to overtake into turn 4 if you take a different line through the long turn 3. I'd have thought Verstappen won't have too much trouble until he gets up to the McLarens and Ferraris. If there's another wet race then anything can happen. 

Do you think MErc and RB will need another engine towards the tail end of the season? 

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