Dan's Tipping Game

[RandoEFC+]

I've had a bit of time on my hands this week so I've been able to dig into even more stats than usual but these are two bets I really like for this weekend.

Celtic vs Ross County - Over 10 Corners and Over 6 Celtic Corners

This should be quite a safe bet and I'm happy to post something with odds of 1.40 because my other selection is at 2.00.

Celtic have been an absolute cheat code for corners this season. If you look at their own corner count, the majority of their games see them clear 10 corners on their own. Last 12 games - 12, 13, 11, 13, 12, 11, 9, 18, 14, 23, 4, 12 - and the 4 was in the Old Firm which is a very different profile of football match than Celtic's usual business of mopping up the cannon fodder.

The stats on Ross County's corners against aren't necessarily compelling, just average, but this is enough to tell me that Celtic will do their usual against them. Indeed, Celtic's corner count in their last 8 meeting with Ross County reads 7, 16, 11, 12, 11, 9, 9, 4, 13.

Venezia vs Ternana - Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score

Considering the odds on this are effectively Evens, I'm astonished by how good this looks statistically. The only real blot against is that the reverse fixture between these sides ended just 1-0 to Venezia, but onto the positives.

7 of Venezia's last 9 games have seen this bet come in. In fact their last five games have averaged 5.4 goals per game with both teams scoring 2 or more in each one! If you look just at Venezia's home games, this bet has come in seven times in a row and they've scored in every home game this season.

Ternana have had BTTS in their last 9 games in a row. A couple of 1-1 draws in their but 7 out of 9 times this bet has come in. If you look just at Ternana's 10 away games in Serie B this season, this bet has come in 9 times with a 2-0 loss at Ascoli the exception. 

When there's such a huge discrepancy between what the stats say and what the bookies' odds say, I always worry slightly that I'm missing something but ultimately, I'm following the research and the principles of probability here.

£10 returns £28

[Dan+]

I'm looking at that exact same game - I've been betting BTTS according to expected goals for a while, and Ternana have regularly flagged up for me. The best type of team for it frankly as they're a regular BTTS payout in a league with a reputation for low scoring. Do you follow Mark O'Haire by any chance? He's gone for this game this weekend too and I agreed 100% with his assessment that if you had those stats in the Eredivisie or Bundesliga that game would be about 1.44 for a BTTS payout, yet it's about 1.75 and I can only conclude it's due to it being Serie B.

[RandoEFC+]

1 minute ago, Dan said:

I'm looking at that exact same game - I've been betting BTTS according to expected goals for a while, and Ternana have regularly flagged up for me. The best type of team for it frankly as they're a regular BTTS payout in a league with a reputation for low scoring. Do you follow Mark O'Haire by any chance? He's gone for this game this weekend too and I agreed 100% with his assessment that if you had those stats in the Eredivisie or Bundesliga that game would be about 1.44 for a BTTS payout, yet it's about 1.75 and I can only conclude it's due to it being Serie B.

No I don't, my algorithm spat it out as 70%+ likely to be over the Bet365 goal line which I think was 2.75 so I bet on that first. Then I've got a column that lights up for O2.5 & BTTS bets where the probability of Over 2.5 is 70%+ and the probability of each team scoring a goal is 85%+ each. Lights up for maybe 1-2% of games that I run the numbers for and this was one of them. The other one was Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim where the odds are 1.75 for the same bet.

It's reassuring when other people are noticing the same games at least.

[Stan]

Top Scorer in the division to bag at home to a lower-league club. Mild amount of risk but worth it given Barnsley's form... 

Juventus top of the table at home to 19th-place. Juve have recently smashed Frosinone and Salernitana at home. Empoli concede nearly 2 a game away from home. 

[Dan+]

31 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

No I don't, my algorithm spat it out as 70%+ likely to be over the Bet365 goal line which I think was 2.75 so I bet on that first. Then I've got a column that lights up for O2.5 & BTTS bets where the probability of Over 2.5 is 70%+ and the probability of each team scoring a goal is 85%+ each. Lights up for maybe 1-2% of games that I run the numbers for and this was one of them. The other one was Hoffenheim vs Heidenheim where the odds are 1.75 for the same bet.

It's reassuring when other people are noticing the same games at least.

There's no way this doesn't end 1-0 now.

[Dan+]

I'm very tempted to take Senegal to beat Ivory Coast I have to say. 7/5 feels ridiculously big for an absolute shitshow against probably the strongest team in the competition.

[RandoEFC+]

21 hours ago, Dan said:

There's no way this doesn't end 1-0 now.

I hope you bet on this... 🫠

[Dan+]

13 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I hope you bet on this... 🫠

Honestly why do we bother? I of course didn't, and instead had the same selection in a treble with Bristol Rovers v Oxford and Lausanne Ouchy v Winterthur - both of those of course sail home.

[Dan+]

No big description or whatnot from me this week. I'm going for Cape Verde to beat Mauritania and Senegal to beat Ivory Coast. My gut tells me.

[RandoEFC+]

8 hours ago, Dan said:

My gut tells me.

And this will be your first win of the season. 

[Dan+]

31 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

And this will be your first win of the season. 

Excuse me I have actually won one

I definitely have quite low faith at the minute though. Does feel like very little is going true to expectation. This one really is as simple as I think they're the better teams in their ties and the Senegal price especially is great in the circumstances.

Just to clarify it's both to win in 90.

[Lucas]

Yeah I like that Senegal pick too but I'm gonna take a punt on PSG to win, BTTS.

PSG win, BTTS 7/4

Senegal 13/10

£10 on @5.32/1 wins £63.25

[Stan]

@Dan saw this and thought of you

 

 

 

[Lucas]

I've just about had enough of selecting PSG. Escape not conceding the other week and then capitulate from 2-0 up this week. Pricks.

[Dan+]

7 hours ago, Stan said:

@Dan saw this and thought of you

 

 

 

 and Cape Verde have done their bit too. Brace yourselves people. We've got an absolute corker on the way here.

[Dan+]

4 hours ago, Lucas said:

I've just about had enough of selecting PSG. Escape not conceding the other week and then capitulate from 2-0 up this week. Pricks.

Out of interest, where were those odds from? Because this is the first time this has happened this season. If you had backed a PSG win and BTTS on a Bet365 bet builder, you would have actually still won because when a team goes 2-0 up it's classed as a win.

[Dan+]

Max Gradel playing for Ivory Coast while a Leicester fan and a Leeds fan need Senegal. We all know how this ends.

[Dan+]

1-0 Senegal already. Could it be?

[Stan]

1-1

 

[Dan+]

[Lucas]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

Out of interest, where were those odds from? Because this is the first time this has happened this season. If you had backed a PSG win and BTTS on a Bet365 bet builder, you would have actually still won because when a team goes 2-0 up it's classed as a win.

I got it off Skybet, that or Paddy P tend to be my go to.

Tbh mate, I assumed that technical things like that wouldn't actually count?

You know much like when say Bet365 give you like a 15% boost sometimes on top of your bet? 

If that's actually something you are counting then I'll bare that in mind going forwards, but I guess I'd need to specify its with a bookie that does that right?

Senegal fucked us as per anyway 

Edited January 29 by Lucas

[Stan]

Did every single leg chosen lose for us all

 

[Dan+]

On 24/01/2024 at 02:12, Dan said:

WEEK 25 - ESSENTIALLY BREAKEVEN

WEEK 25 STATS
Winning bets: 2/6
Winning selections: 6/12
Weekly forum position: -£1.82 (Ranked 10/25)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 44/171
Winning selections: 149/322
Total forum position: -£304.91

 

The latest instalment arrives. A fair bit of change in the league table and a pretty ordinary week on the whole.

The week produced two winners. The first is @Stan who moves back up into 4th courtesy of two second half turnaround victories. Always what I find to be the perk of backing a team to win and over X goals is you're less pissed off with the inevitable notification to find they've gone 1-0 down. Shrewsbury took a shock lead at Peterborough before half time, but there was no surprise in the turnaround and it ended 2-1. Almeria went one better, taking a shock 0-2 lead at the Bernabeu before the inevitable crumbling. It would've been quite something to see Almeria stunt another of the La Liga runaway teams but it appears that's only reserved for my picks. That's Stan's third straight win, and winning bang on £25 means he's essentially won back his bonus stake.

The other winner was @RandoEFC who finally pays off with the corners. This absolutely sailed in to be honest, with Bristol City v Watford producing 15 between them, miles over the 9 required. The Ulm v Unterhaching game went similarly with the bet all but in by half time, as there were 14 corners in total, of which Ulm took 8 of them.

I went ambitious this week and didn't really get anywhere near a winner. It was always risky picking a Palace side in pretty dire straits, missing Olise to go to the side with the least number of chances created against them and score, but the odds were backable for me given the data. Toney had his moment, it just happened to be a free-kick instead of a penalty this time. I can't really whinge this time.

Who probably can whinge however is @Lucas. It amazes me some of the odds you get on Juventus wins. Always worth a go. But for Bayern to turn that result in at home to a team with no away wins all season is remarkably unlucky timing. He does however retain his place at the top of the table as @Pyfish double blanks in a late pick. No Cunha goal, no Leicester win. Not his week.

@CaaC (John) was the other predictor. His went according to the odds. The comfortable favourites of Arsenal winning heavily. The outsiders of Nottingham Forest losing, dropping him to a season low position of 8th following five straight losses.

On we go.

 

WEEK 26 - SIX LOSERS FROM FIVE BETS!

WEEK 26 STATS
Winning bets: 0/5
Winning selections: 2/10
Weekly forum position: -£50.00 (Ranked 21/26)

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OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 44/176
Winning selections: 151/332
Total forum position: -£354.91

 

This really was an absolute shocker of a week with an astoundingly low number of selections landing, not a single player winning a bet and to really rub salt into the wound, I've discovered another accounting fault which has penalised one player in particular.

I'll get that bit out of the way. @RandoEFC is £20 down on last week rather than the £10 the table says, and moves down to 8th, as I've missed off a previous loss unfortunately. To really rub salt in the wound, I can't seem to land anything where I put my money where my mouth is, and yet;

On 26/01/2024 at 16:55, Dan said:

There's no way this doesn't end 1-0 now.

The corners pick was one of only two single selections to land this weekend, but the Serie B game that promised goals actually delivered a Serie B game. A double whammy.

@CaaC (John) continues his poor form with a sixth straight loss, no magic of the cup this time as neither Villa or Spurs managed even a goal, let alone a win in their ties. Starting to wonder if the ultra long shots are worth a return!

@Stan's winning run is over following a double blank. Devante Cole blanking for Barnsley in their loss to Exeter, and Juventus remarkably failing to beat an abject Empoli at home, though two things of note from that game - Arkadiusz Milik was sent off in the first half for Juventus, and Empoli have just appointed the man who is supposedly the survival specialist of Italy and in truth, his record stacks up. In 2016/17 he kept Crotone up from a position of having just 9 points from their opening 19 games, and in 2021/22 he did similarly at Salternitana. He's taken over Empoli in similarly dire straits, so they may well be a team to keep an eye on now - even if this result was probably a bit lucky.

Then we come to the slightly more controversial. I've decided due to fairness that I agree with @Lucas in that we won't include things such as acca boost or 2 goal payout, as we had our first instance all season this weekend of a bet that would've lost in a regular form, but won on Bet365's early payout. It was settled however when Senegal blew it against Ivory Coast, a result that also sank myself. It was written, but in truth, Senegal really didn't turn up at all and despite taking a very early lead they just didn't really do anything, they sat in and hoped to never be broken down, a risky strategy that backfired. In the twist of twists, Ivory Coast are now the second favourites to win the whole thing!

So yeah, a really rubbish week on the whole, unfortunately.

[CaaC (John)+]

Premier League - Sat 3rd Feb

Brighton v Palace  (Brighton to win)
Sheff United v Aston Villa (Villa to win)

[RandoEFC+]

Entering these for the weekend because the price is already moving for the first leg.

Going for a couple of what I think are over-priced match winners this weekend.

Nancy vs Cholet

Nancy sit 5th in the French third tier and host joint-bottom side Cholet on Friday evening. Nancy are far from perfect but are currently on a run of five consecutive wins after a poor run of form. Their home record for the season isn't great or terrible with 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat, but 2 of those three wins have come in their previous two home games. Cholet's form is the real selling point here. They've lost 9 of their last 11 games and 7 of their 8 away games all season, including their last five. Nancy also won the return fixture 2-0 back in August. I think 1.72 is a decent price here and it's already closed from 1.83 when I first looked this afternoon.

 

SSV Jeddeloh vs Phonix Lubeck

Going even more obscure now in the German Regionalliga. 2nd placed Phonix Lubeck travel to Jeddeloh this weekend, both clubs returning to league action for the first time since November. Phonix have been particularly strong on the road this season with 7 wins and no defeats in their last 9 away games. Jeddeloh haven't won at home since September with 3 draws and 4 defeats in their last seven. Phonix also absolutely obliterated Jeddeloh 7-0 in the return fixture earlier this season. Hopefully neither of these teams return from their winter break in unrecognisable form. Again, I think 1.75 represents value here.