The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Dr. Gonzo]

US bombed Shia militias backed by Syria and Iran in Syria yesterday. Makes the likelihood of Iran and the US stepping back to the negotiating table less likely, imo.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Iran’s signed an economic deal with China to last for the next 25 years.

A huge victory for Iran’s hardliners and a bitter defeat to reformists in Iran that had hoped for easing of ties with the west and the belief better relations with the west, and western influence, would to gradual societal reforms.

But its big news for ordinary Iranians in Iran. It should bring about a bit more stability to an economy that’s really been squeezed by US sanctions and it opens Iran and Iranian goods open more to the world economy.

I think it was inevitable after the JCPOA completely broke down after Trump pulled out, and then the Biden administration went back on its statement that the US primary goal with Iran was a swift return to the JCPOA.

I’ve got mixed feelings on it because, I am glad for my family members in Iran that their lives will get a bit more stable. But I don’t think this does much for my hopes of ever getting to go to an Iran that isn’t under authoritarian rule, much less under an authoritarian theocracy.

[Azeem]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

But I don’t think this does much for my hopes of ever getting to go to an Iran that isn’t under authoritarian rule, much less under an authoritarian theocracy.

Really feel for Iranian people they have been under authoritarian rule for a long long time. Where did they went wrong !?

[Machado]

2 hours ago, McAzeem said:

Really feel for Iranian people they have been under authoritarian rule for a long long time. Where did they went wrong !?

The CIA and the MI6 might know one thing or two about that.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, McAzeem said:

Really feel for Iranian people they have been under authoritarian rule for a long long time. Where did they went wrong !?

When Mossadegh nationalised Iranian oil and the US & UK took out the democratically elected leader is the start of where things went wrong.

The Shah was an idiot politically, he alienated the left and the right - the upper middle class and wealthy loved him - but basically nobody else. He also tied himself very closely to Nixon and when Nixon’s administration ended in disgrace... he didn’t keep good graces with his new, more left wing puppet masters.

Carter grew increasingly irritated with the Shah, and was actually... not on that bad of terms with Khomeini https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Carter's_engagement_with_Ruhollah_Khomeini?wprov=sfti1

Western media initially portrayed Khomeini in a pretty positive light too, painting him as a wise old eastern mystic.

But it all stems from the installation of a shitty dictator puppet in the 50s imo.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Looks like another STUXNET cyber attack on the Natanz nuclear site in Iran.

Hmmm.... wonder who was behind it, lol

[Dr. Gonzo]

Iran's retaliation for the cyberattack is to increase uranium enrichment to 60%

...it's a predictable response, which begs the question - if people are opposed to this government having nukes... why the opposition to the JCPOA that gives the West a ridiculous amount of access to Iran's nuclear sites and ensures that Iran won't be working closer to the 90% enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon?

And it seems like this attack was done to make it more difficult for Iran and the US to re-enter the JCPOA, tbh, to keep the status quo of an Iran that is pushing towards nuclear weapon & ends up giving Iranian hardliners a LOT more political capital for the upcoming election in Iran. And I don't see how that helps keep Iran from pushing towards developing a nuclear weapon. The hardliners are the ones less inclined to engage with the West and have been the loudest advocates for gaining nukes.

The people that want the status quo and the US to keep up this "maximum pressure" on Iran are pretty fucked up, imo. These sanctions impact ordinary people far more than they impact the Iranian government - who just turn to the black market to continue to make oil exports.

I understand the goal is to make people so frustrated with their current conditions that they rise up against the government. But at the end of the day, won't it be likely any government that comes next will still have this population of people angry about the country that put on sanctions that made people choose between paying rent or buying,  food, or prevented insulin shipments coming in so diabetics died, or prevented PPP shipments during a global pandemic?

Western policy in the Middle East is so fucking shortsighted and ridiculous, it's no wonder why the region is so absolutely fucked up. The inability to think about anything in the long term, refusal to understand how blowback works - I just don't understand how they think any of their actions bring any stability to the region.

And in other news...

The US is leaving Afghanistan (on September 11, 2021 - probably symbolically)... let's see how that goes. I'm not sure what the US really achieved in it's 20 year war with Afghanistan. There's serious doubts as to whether the current government can last without the US military presence. So if the Taliban come back, it was just 20 years of suffering for nothing?

If anything, I hope it means to mark a change for US foreign policy in the region. But history tells me: lol nah they're not going to change their foreign policy very much.

[Azeem]

On the surface change of regime was the reason to go at war in Afghanistan but US had/has other reasons too.

The infighting will continue there until the next regime takes over. Basically it's two Pashtun groups fighting but they always join together to stop the Persian speaking Tajiks to gain power in the country. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

It's crazy to think that really not that long ago - like just over a decade from when I was born - Afghanistan was a very different place before they had their Marxist revolution. And since then... it's been constant brutal warfare with super powers. With lulls of Taliban rule.

Very sad tbh.

[Azeem]

Ukraine is saying the Iranian government shot down that passenger plane intentionally last year 

[Dr. Gonzo]

42 minutes ago, McAzeem said:

Ukraine is saying the Iranian government shot down that passenger plane intentionally last year 

I saw that, but the headline is weird because it doesn't really reflect the quote properly.

Ukraine is saying Iran intentionally shot a missile at a plane they misidentified as a bomber - I don't think anyone's disputed that though. They did intentionally fire a missile, otherwise it wouldn't have been hit. But the guy goes on to say, he doesn't think they intentionally meant to target a passenger plane, rather that they misidentified the bomber.

Which then made me think: "isn't that pretty much what anyone thought in the first place?" So why is it in the news? Because it's not really newsworthy. But then you consider that the headline talks about Ukraine, which looks like is on the cusp of being invaded by Russia again, and Iran - where there's tensions over the JCPOA & Israel's recent attack Natanz. And that's some pretty attractive clickbait for people who might be interested in two parts of the world where it looks like any sense of stability is flying out the window.

[El Profesor]

Wasn´t that incident right after the Soleimani strike? I can definitely see why it happened, since tensions were high in Iran at that time.

 

I wonder if the families of the victims have gathered to sue the iranian government. Not sure if the judiciary is independent in Iran, but they definitely should get at least a huge financial compensation for their loss.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, El Profesor said:

Wasn´t that incident right after the Soleimani strike? I can definitely see why it happened, since tensions were high in Iran at that time.

 

I wonder if the families of the victims have gathered to sue the iranian government. Not sure if the judiciary is independent in Iran, but they definitely should get at least a huge financial compensation for their loss.

Yeah it was right after Soleimani was blown to hell, but more immediately after the Iranian missile response to a US base in Iraq. They’d given warning to the US - but even if Trump wasn’t in the white house, I think it would be reasonable to be on edge immediately after doing that to the world’s most terrifying military force.

There was also serious incompetence though - if you are on edge and worried about the US bombing the capital... you or I would probably order a clear airspace. Definitely not letting passenger planes take off. Initially they said there was an no order to ground flights, but later they claimed there was an order to ground flights and they don’t know why that plane was in the air in the first place.

Either one of those situations doesn’t really indicate the kind of competence you’d hope for if you were living in a country that’s deciding to escalate with a super power that’s got them surrounded.

I think the regime did do a payout for the families of the victims. But only for the ones living in Iran - and many of the victims families lived in Canada and the US & Ukraine - and probably other countries too. And what was paid out was... paltry as fuck compared to what you’d think you’d get after a family member dies (and really... there isn’t any sum of money to make it “right”)

[Azeem]

Blasts around Israeli nuclear facility in Dinoma. More inflamed ME 

Edited April 21, 2021 by McAzeem

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 minutes ago, McAzeem said:

Blasts around Israeli nuclear facility in Dinoma. 

Iran responded !?

Israel’s saying it was “controlled tests”

which is what Russia said about Chernobyl, so this could be quite bad.

[Azeem]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Israel’s saying it was “controlled tests”

which is what Russia said about Chernobyl, so this could be quite bad.

They released a statement? 

P. S Syrian air defence alerted

[Dr. Gonzo]

7 minutes ago, McAzeem said:

They released a statement? 

P. S Syrian air defence alerted

This is what I saw: https://www.timesofisrael.com/big-blast-at-rocket-factory-jolts-central-israel-in-controlled-test/

[Azeem]

6 hours ago, McAzeem said:

They released a statement? 

P. S Syrian air defence alerted

Israeli forces say a surface to air missile was launched from Syria. They attacked the battery in response to where the missile was fired. 

Surface to air but it impacted the surface from such a long distance with such an impact, it doesn't work that way. Lots of ?

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 hours ago, McAzeem said:

Israeli forces say a surface to air missile was launched from Syria. They attacked the battery in response to where the missile was fired. 

Surface to air but it impacted the surface from such a long distance with such an impact, it doesn't work that way. Lots of ?

Can surface to air missiles go that far?

[Azeem]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

Can surface to air missiles go that far?

Not very likely and they don't have that kind of impact on the ground like what was seen yesterday. Felt throughout the surroundings 

[El Profesor]

I've recently found about the "Blowback" podcast and I'm hooked. It's so good. 

Season 1 is about the Iraq war. For anyone who has some interest in the Near East, it's a must listen. 

https://blowback.show/

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/4/if-i-dont-steal-your-home-someone-else-will-jewish-settler-says

I don't think shit like this is really condemned enough by the international community. Also friendly reminder that Roman Abramovich funds a lot of these illegal settlements.

[Azeem]

On 04/05/2021 at 23:09, Dr. Gonzo said:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/4/if-i-dont-steal-your-home-someone-else-will-jewish-settler-says

I don't think shit like this is really condemned enough by the international community. Also friendly reminder that Roman Abramovich funds a lot of these illegal settlements.

Continued by the police brutality yesterday. Nethanyahu agreed for further annexations in the deal to form coalition last year, he wants to delay it it seems but the right wingers are loosing patience that's why the recent aggression.

 

[6666]

What happened to this Netanyahu prick getting done for corruption?

[Azeem]

18 hours ago, McAzeem said:

Continued by the police brutality yesterday. Nethanyahu agreed for further annexations in the deal to form coalition last year, he wants to delay it it seems but the right wingers are loosing patience that's why the recent aggression.

Notice of deportation also given to 46 Black Jewish families living in the South  to leave the country in 60 days. Yep definitely far right.