The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Dr. Gonzo]

Here's Mike Pence praising MEK - a terrorist group: https://www.businessinsider.com/pence-endorses-mek-fringe-iranian-dissident-group-forbids-sexual-thoughts-2021-10

[Azeem]

Have these sanctions ever done harm to their intended governments from Iran to Russia? 

Trying to achieve with sanctions what you couldn't do with 20 years of war. 

[Waylander]

My reading at the moment suggests Israel is getting concerned about Iran's progress with nuclear enrichment.

Allegedly they were asking the US to bomb Iran's nuclear sites yet the Biden govt is not interested.

So Israel is looking at what they can do.

Of course for them to bomb is not easy as they need to fly over a number of countries and then of course is the military reaction if they do go ahead.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, Waylander said:

My reading at the moment suggests Israel is getting concerned about Iran's progress with nuclear enrichment.

Allegedly they were asking the US to bomb Iran's nuclear sites yet the Biden govt is not interested.

So Israel is looking at what they can do.

Of course for them to bomb is not easy as they need to fly over a number of countries and then of course is the military reaction if they do go ahead.

Israel is always looking to bomb Iran and always on the side of pressuring the US to invade Iran for them. It's a bit similar to Iraq, Israel pushed the US to invade until they finally did - even manufacturing evidence for the US to present to the UN to justify the war.

Since 1996 Israel's right-wing has been saying Iran is "under 7 months" from getting the bomb. The time table constantly changes, but each year if you pay attention you'll see either the Israel PM/FM/Defense Minister/Head of Mossad come forward with a statement saying Iran is "months" from acquiring a bomb.

So this concern of Israel's is really nothing new - although, I think at this point after pressuring the US to abandon the JCPOA... they've probably pushed Iran closer than ever to getting the bomb And while negotiations are ongoing, recent news suggests that the efforts to revive the JCPOA are likely going to fail as the US wants to add additional terms to any nuclear deal, whereas Iran's unwilling to re-negotiate terms unless there's more concessions made to them & the US can guarantee any deal will survive a change in presidential administrations.

These points leave no room for the other side to truly negotiate. Iran will never agree to give up it's long ranged ballistic missiles AND stop progress towards it's nuclear capability. Like Israel, Iran is surrounded by unfriendly neighbors and will want the ability to defend themselves. Long range ballistic missiles have proven to be an effective deterrent for foreign invasion into Iran. The US will never agree to concede more to Iran, because of how Obama was slaughtered by the American right wing for making a deal with them, and simply cannot guarantee a deal can survive beyond Biden's term unless a formal treaty is signed and ratified (and the treaty would never pass the US senate).

I suspect if Iran does get close to a nuclear bomb, Israel is ready to attack. I don't think flying over other countries would be a major issue for Israel, tbh. They have normalised relations with Jordan, so I'm sure they'd be able to use that airspace. Then they'd have to fly into Iraq (perhaps landing if they need to refuel) and considering the US controls the skies in Iraq, I am sure they are able to do that quite easily.

But this would likely cause Iran to have it's proxy in Lebanon mobilise and make constant attacks in Israel, as well as open up Iranian forces in Syria to launch missiles into Israel. It will probably be a very ugly conflict that likely gets the west involved into another full on invasion of a Middle Eastern country... which I'm not sure the West really has the stomach for. Iran would be a bigger scale conflict than the Iraq invasion was - it's a country with a much more varied terrain, a lot more people, and a military that's gained substantial experience in the last 20 years.

[Waylander]

14 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Israel is always looking to bomb Iran and always on the side of pressuring the US to invade Iran for them. It's a bit similar to Iraq, Israel pushed the US to invade until they finally did - even manufacturing evidence for the US to present to the UN to justify the war.

Since 1996 Israel's right-wing has been saying Iran is "under 7 months" from getting the bomb. The time table constantly changes, but each year if you pay attention you'll see either the Israel PM/FM/Defense Minister/Head of Mossad come forward with a statement saying Iran is "months" from acquiring a bomb.

So this concern of Israel's is really nothing new - although, I think at this point after pressuring the US to abandon the JCPOA... they've probably pushed Iran closer than ever to getting the bomb And while negotiations are ongoing, recent news suggests that the efforts to revive the JCPOA are likely going to fail as the US wants to add additional terms to any nuclear deal, whereas Iran's unwilling to re-negotiate terms unless there's more concessions made to them & the US can guarantee any deal will survive a change in presidential administrations.

These points leave no room for the other side to truly negotiate. Iran will never agree to give up it's long ranged ballistic missiles AND stop progress towards it's nuclear capability. Like Israel, Iran is surrounded by unfriendly neighbors and will want the ability to defend themselves. Long range ballistic missiles have proven to be an effective deterrent for foreign invasion into Iran. The US will never agree to concede more to Iran, because of how Obama was slaughtered by the American right wing for making a deal with them, and simply cannot guarantee a deal can survive beyond Biden's term unless a formal treaty is signed and ratified (and the treaty would never pass the US senate).

I suspect if Iran does get close to a nuclear bomb, Israel is ready to attack. I don't think flying over other countries would be a major issue for Israel, tbh. They have normalised relations with Jordan, so I'm sure they'd be able to use that airspace. Then they'd have to fly into Iraq (perhaps landing if they need to refuel) and considering the US controls the skies in Iraq, I am sure they are able to do that quite easily.

But this would likely cause Iran to have it's proxy in Lebanon mobilise and make constant attacks in Israel, as well as open up Iranian forces in Syria to launch missiles into Israel. It will probably be a very ugly conflict that likely gets the west involved into another full on invasion of a Middle Eastern country... which I'm not sure the West really has the stomach for. Iran would be a bigger scale conflict than the Iraq invasion was - it's a country with a much more varied terrain, a lot more people, and a military that's gained substantial experience in the last 20 years.

I agree on Hezbollah being a player.

Think Iran's annoyance was Trump stopping negotiations and putting Sanctions on Iran.

They expected Biden to remove Sanctions as part of renewing the negotiations the US has not done this.

So they say they are continuing to enrich nuclear material.

Iran is a much more difficult target than either Iraq or Syria and since the 90s has been preparing for an attack.

Notice with their missile that hit the US airbase in Iraq under Trump it evaded detection.

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Yeah their military strength is really in its rocket/missile capability. They are fairly accurate and the ones they fire from vehicles can fly under US missile defense systems.

From Iran’s perspective, yes they are annoyed the US backed out of the JCPOA and imposed the harshest sanctions its ever imposed on the country. It’s why domestically the reformists in Iran have lost all political capital - the hardliners said that the US would break a deal.

They don’t want to renegotiate the deal that they didn’t break, they want all parties to go back to those terms. The US wants a more thorough and limiting deal that includes rocket/missile restrictions - something the Saudis and Israelis also both want & don’t want to give the guarantee that the next president won’t just scrap the same deal again.

Neither side trusts each other for a split second & I think the diplomacy here will fail, unfortunately. The other parties to the agreement, the EU, UK, Russia and China, can’t really do much to convince either side to change their stance.

[Azeem]

Two Saudi civilians got killed in a Houthi rocket attack !

Saudis are building their own missile system with the collaboration of China, US mainly ignored the attacks on the Aramco field so this was probably the reason to shift to China

Edited December 25, 2021 by Khan of TF365

[Waylander]

On 29/10/2021 at 16:49, Dr. Gonzo said:

Today I learned: the country I was born in is directly responsible for the IRI killing off some of my family members.

https://portside.org/2020-01-25/how-britain-helped-irans-islamic-regime-destroy-its-left-wing-opposition
 

And after the collapse of the revolution’s first government in the middle of the Iran-Iraq war & purges of the 80s, I think most hope of Iran’s revolutionary ever shifting from the theocracy it ended up with probably died.

It’s mental how badly world powers can fuck other countries up over geopolitical struggles, then was their hands of the blame and do things like impose sanctions collectively punishing all Iranians in Iran for a course of events they’ve had a hand in pushing along the way.

Interesting link.

Yes I agree there is a lot of machiavellian stuff going on that does not reach the tabloids not because they don't want to run with it just because the consequences could be challenging.

I was watching one of these new travel programs a year or so ago, might have been with Simon Reeve or another yet they went to Iran and Tehran and into a shopping hypermarket. They chatted with young Iranians and a number were wearing UK football shirts.

The program never asked how they might get them yet was showing intentionally or incidentally  that Iran did have market opportunities.

[Azeem]

 

[Azeem]

Houthis are intensifying their attacks, UAE intercepted a ballistic missile today. 70 people got killed in Yemen by a retaliation airstrike by UAE/Saudi. 

[Azeem]

Wile E Coyote stuff

[Dr. Gonzo]

US raid on ISIS in Syria - some civilian casualties have been reported, but it looks like they are because an ISIS leader the raid was targeting put on a suicide vest and blew himself (and his family) up.

[OrangeKhrush]

im fine with Iran not getting s nuclear program, they are the destabilizing force in the middle East.  

[Dr. Gonzo]

21 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

im fine with Iran not getting s nuclear program, they are the destabilizing force in the middle East.  

I'm biased but I wholeheartedly disagree. The biggest destabilizing force is the US and their allies Saudi Arabia. The US creates power vacuums, the Saudis train/fund/support Wahabi and Salafist jihadists that make the region more unstable. The Saudis fund separatist groups in Iran, like the 3 Iranians that were convicted in Denmark today - all members of that separatist group (that was behind the London Iran embassy siege)... they were convicted of spying for the Saudis.

And what the Saudis are doing in Yemen is an atrocity - it makes anything from the Israel-Palestine conflict seem humane tbh. And it's genocide that's being justified on the basis that their puppet is likely to lose power if they don't intervene.

And it's typically these Wahhabi groups that are the ones that spread Islamicist terror outside the region as well (although their biggest victims worldwide are predominantly shia Muslims, which is why so many Iraqis and Iranians hate ISIS) - they're the ones that are spreading terror in Europe with ISIS...

I don't want Iran to get a nuclear program because once they do it sets up the status quo that the IRI will control Iran forever. And to me, I'd like to see the country return to a democracy like it was before the US and UK shat all over that in the 50s.

But I think it's funny that they're labeled the destabilising force in the region. Really I think the best evidence of that is the spread of their influence in Iraq... but what the hell did the world expect to happen, the US and UK came in, toppled Saddam (who's probably one of the most hated people ever in Iran) and then let the Saudis spread Wahhabi terror all along Iran's border. Of course Iran would try to gain influence over terrorists that want to kill their mostly Shia population.

But surely if anyone is the truly destabilising force, it's the imperialists who came in from other continents to make a mess of the region, and their craven allies that profit from the mess the outsiders made 

[OrangeKhrush]

I would say the UK is far more vested in Saudi Arabia and the UAE than the US.   the issue still remains "radical Islam".   it seems western interest is oil and munitions contracts

[Waylander]

@Dr. Gonzo I take it you know the USSR had to be coerced to leave Iran post WWII.

However that does not justify the other sides presence either.

The Islamic nations of the Arabian peninsular friendly to the US have also been trying to diversify their economies.

Though if there is Middle Eastern war involving Iran they will likely be caught in the cross-fire of missiles and need to rebuild possibly with less oil revenue due to climate change favouring other energies. 

The war on Yemen get's little mention in our media probably because we sell arms to Saudi Arabia.

 

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

7 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I would say the UK is far more vested in Saudi Arabia and the UAE than the US.   the issue still remains "radical Islam".   it seems western interest is oil and munitions contracts

Maybe in the 40s, but I think since the US has been a superpower the US definitely has more influence over the Saudis & UAE.

But of course the house of Saud is forever in the UK’s debt for being able to plaster their name on the country and for the kingdom they’ve set up.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, Waylander said:

@Dr. Gonzo I take it you know the USSR had to be coerced to leave Iran post WWII.

However that does not justify the other sides presence either.

The Islamic nations of the Arabian peninsular friendly to the US have also been trying to diversify their economies.

Though if there is Middle Eastern war involving Iran they will likely be caught in the cross-fire of missiles and need to rebuild possibly with less oil revenue due to climate change favouring other energies. 

The war on Yemen get's little mention in our media probably because we sell arms to Saudi Arabia.

 

 

 

Yeah, Russia (even before it was Soviet) has had a long and significant interest in Iran. But British and Soviet occupation of Iran is something that Iran dealt with for about 45-50 years after the Persian famine. But the Soviets successfully had Gilan as a Soviet state for a short while in history.

I think if there’s a war in the Middle East involving Iran, it’ll probably be a horrific shitshow that makes Iraq and Syria look like a walk in the park. Probably like a hybrid of the Iraq war with some of this Yemen style slow genocide.

I absolutely think you are right the media doesn’t cover our role in the Yemen conflict because we are tacit supporters in the genocide going on there. Don’t want to make the public too aware of horrible things done with our support or we might be asked to stop supporting horrible things.

Theres probably a lot of issues that here in the west we ought to hit the reset button and take a better look at things. Foreign policy in the Middle East is definitely one of them. Because we’ve not made the region a better place… so many actions the west has made in the region have been short sighted and made the area less peaceful and more dangerous for everyone.

[Waylander]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Yeah, Russia (even before it was Soviet) has had a long and significant interest in Iran. But British and Soviet occupation of Iran is something that Iran dealt with for about 45-50 years after the Persian famine. But the Soviets successfully had Gilan as a Soviet state for a short while in history.

I think if there’s a war in the Middle East involving Iran, it’ll probably be a horrific shitshow that makes Iraq and Syria look like a walk in the park. Probably like a hybrid of the Iraq war with some of this Yemen style slow genocide.

I absolutely think you are right the media doesn’t cover our role in the Yemen conflict because we are tacit supporters in the genocide going on there. Don’t want to make the public too aware of horrible things done with our support or we might be asked to stop supporting horrible things.

Theres probably a lot of issues that here in the west we ought to hit the reset button and take a better look at things. Foreign policy in the Middle East is definitely one of them. Because we’ve not made the region a better place… so many actions the west has made in the region have been short sighted and made the area less peaceful and more dangerous for everyone.

With the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the Iranians upped their game in the military stakes.

With their presence along much of the Gulf coastline, mountains, Hezbollah and the question of their missile ability suggests the Gulf would close sending oil prices catastrophic.

It is hard to know how effective their missiles are though one hit the US airbase in Iraq during Trumps tenure and he said no damage was done and then admitted later some staff suffered. 'headaches'. So somehow they fired a missile that went undetected and unchallenged over 100s of miles.

The US or Israel will not get much advantage of a surprise attack due to proximity of other countries with citizens sympathies towards Iran or against US/Israel.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, Waylander said:

With the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the Iranians upped their game in the military stakes.

With their presence along much of the Gulf coastline, mountains, Hezbollah and the question of their missile ability suggests the Gulf would close sending oil prices catastrophic.

It is hard to know how effective their missiles are though one hit the US airbase in Iraq during Trumps tenure and he said no damage was done and then admitted later some staff suffered. 'headaches'. So somehow they fired a missile that went undetected and unchallenged over 100s of miles.

The US or Israel will not get much advantage of a surprise attack due to proximity of other countries with citizens sympathies towards Iran or against US/Israel.

 

It’s also a much bigger population with a much more diverse terrain than other countries in the region they’ve fought in.

I think Iran would get destroyed for sure, but it would be a really unpleasant war for everyone involved. And devastating a country of 80m people is going to do nothing for the stability of the region.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Minor sanctions relief for Iran from the US today ahead of US-Iran talks regarding restoring the JCPOA (although at this point, I think it's only going to last for as long as the Biden administration will - so probably 2 years at best) tomorrow.

It's only really on Iran's nuclear industry and isn't so meaningful for most of the population struggling with the economic squeeze these sanctions are putting on them.

But it's promising news for possibly temporary relief for Iranians in Iran, and a rare good sign that talks might be going well between the West and Iran.

[Azeem]

Pakistan faction of Taliban have officially asked for help from US to fight Pakistani state. Their whole reason to fight in the first place started because according to them Pak state was a lackey of great satan US.

A reminder that these types of organisations are only centralised in their early years of formation, when their leader dies or splits occur they become loosely bound parts of global underworld with no real ideology or motive. They'll fight anyone for $$$.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, Aladdin said:

Pakistan faction of Taliban have officially asked for help from US to fight Pakistani state. Their whole reason to fight in the first place started because according to them Pak state was a lackey of great satan US.

A reminder that these types of organisations are only centralised in their early years of formation, when their leader dies or splits occur they become loosely bound parts of global underworld with no real ideology or motive. They'll fight anyone for $$$.

That last point should be pretty clear with the West fighting on the same side as Al Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen - but it’s still something a lot of people overlook or just don’t realise 

[Dr. Gonzo]

The fucking Russians ended the Iran nuclear deal talks with their outrageous new demands.

Fuckers, and fuck Iran’s government for being so in bed with those cunts

[Dr. Gonzo]

Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering selling oil in Chinese RMB rather than the US Dollar.