Harvey Barnes Joins Newcastle

[Stan]

2 hours ago, Rick said:

Is he really THAT much of an upgrade on Saint-Maximan? He’s about as inconsistent. 

Really? 

Have a look at the goals and assists Barnes produces. Barnes got as many goals last season as Saint-Maximin has had in his whole Newcastle career. 

Big upgrade if you're looking at a goalscoring winger. 

[OrangeKhrush]

51 minutes ago, Stan said:

Really? 

Have a look at the goals and assists Barnes produces. Barnes got as many goals last season as Saint-Maximin has had in his whole Newcastle career. 

Big upgrade if you're looking at a goalscoring winger. 

Alan St Maximin needs to move on,  he averages 20 games a season with 3 goals and 3 assists.   He is suited to a weaker league where he can run at weaker defenses. 

[Honey Honey]

5 hours ago, Rick said:

Is he really THAT much of an upgrade on Saint-Maximan? He’s about as inconsistent. 

He rarely gets a game. 

Wingers typically are inconsistent, the luxury we had last season is that we could always find someone who'd perform when another fell off. 

We don't have a fixed wingers as in this player starts no matter what. 

Barnes would essentially be coming in to the same mix where if you dont deliver you'll be quickly pulled until your next opportunity.

My concern is ASM could single handedly win or turn a game. I don't think we can say that about anyone else in the squad.

We are likely to face far more bus parkers next season. We need the keys for that and ASM could be a good option.

[Rick]

5 hours ago, Stan said:

Really? 

Have a look at the goals and assists Barnes produces. Barnes got as many goals last season as Saint-Maximin has had in his whole Newcastle career. 

Big upgrade if you're looking at a goalscoring winger. 

You lot say yourself how inconsistent he is. I’ve even seen that he will have 6 average games for every great one. That’s not good enough for what Newcastle are looking for, they will outgrow him quickly. West Ham, Villa are his level right now. 

[Stan]

4 hours ago, Rick said:

You lot say yourself how inconsistent he is. I’ve even seen that he will have 6 average games for every great one. That’s not good enough for what Newcastle are looking for, they will outgrow him quickly. West Ham, Villa are his level right now. 

This season he was, previous seasons not so much! 

Hindsight says it was probably harsh criticism, but he was generally a better performer than most others. He's definitely nowhere near as inconsistent or bad as Saint-Maximin, when you consider how creative and attacking that Newcastle side is. 

[OrangeKhrush]

our fan base has a vociferous Maximist cult that can't seem to let go of a guy that averaged 21 games in his time for us to date and never passed double digit goal contributions.

while st Maximin spared us the torrid years of Bruceball he is not the solution going forward.   if he stays I don't mind but Barnes will likely offer more.   

I do have my reservations on Barnes, I am however trusting of the recruitment team.   Barnes does suit our system and play more than Maxi does as he is more direct.

[Honey Honey]

If it is £25m like quoted today cannot have any complaints. No risk.

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Honey Honey said:

If it is £25m like quoted today cannot have any complaints. No risk.

That would be a great deal. 

[Dan+]

Would be a fucking dog shit deal. I'll be mortified if they accept that sort of money.

[Dan+]

He's definitely an upgrade on Saint-Maximin as well.

[OrangeKhrush]

I see we are after Axel Disasi,  maybe a cash plus Maxi deal for Disasi and about 35m for Barnes then I think our main business will be done.   We may try a loan approach for Tierney.. 

[Dan+]

2022/23 - 13 goals and 1 assist in 30.1 nineties - goal or assist every 2.15 games

2021/22 - 6 goals and 10 assists in 23.3 nineties - goal or assist every 1.46 games

2020/21 - 9 goals and 4 assists in 21.6 nineties - goal or assist every 1.66 games

2019/20 - 6 goals and 8 assists in 23.1 nineties - goal or assist every 1.65 games

 

So an average or a goal or assist every 1.72 games over four seasons. That's just Premier League as well. He's a good player who consistently puts in good numbers. Ironically really the biggest flaw in his stats there is actually how much time he's missed, and that may be what puts teams off paying the big money.

He is flawed, but he's good. Far worse players have moved for bigger fees. Anthony Gordon on the flip side averages a goal or assist every 4.95 games. Marcus Rashford in his Premier League career is one every 1.61 games. He's being under-rated here for me.

[OrangeKhrush]

apparently it is in advanced stages

[Spike]

7 hours ago, Dan said:

2022/23 - 13 goals and 1 assist in 30.1 nineties - goal or assist every 2.15 games

2021/22 - 6 goals and 10 assists in 23.3 nineties - goal or assist every 1.46 games

2020/21 - 9 goals and 4 assists in 21.6 nineties - goal or assist every 1.66 games

2019/20 - 6 goals and 8 assists in 23.1 nineties - goal or assist every 1.65 games

 

So an average or a goal or assist every 1.72 games over four seasons. That's just Premier League as well. He's a good player who consistently puts in good numbers. Ironically really the biggest flaw in his stats there is actually how much time he's missed, and that may be what puts teams off paying the big money.

He is flawed, but he's good. Far worse players have moved for bigger fees. Anthony Gordon on the flip side averages a goal or assist every 4.95 games. Marcus Rashford in his Premier League career is one every 1.61 games. He's being under-rated here for me.

Those sort of stats are kinda meaningless as they have no context. Are the goals and assists;
home or away?
was Leicester winning or losing at the moment?
what team were they against?
Because if he scores twice and assists twice in a 7-0 win at home, then does nothing the next three games, he still averages 1 goal/assist per game. 

[OrangeKhrush]

it isn't the flashiest if moves but over ASM he is probably an upgrade but yes there are still questions asked.

even if we keep maxi, he is in last chance saloon as he can't keep being a low output player and expect to be part of our future

[Honey Honey]

Questions for me...

I don't know much about him @Dan @Stan so don't take these questions as criticism or putting him down, just curiosity I think you can help me get to the bottom of.

Is he Champions League quality or is he close enough to that quality in form and talent that Eddie Howe will get him to that level? 

How does someone score 13 goals from the wing in a season and not get in the England squad? What are those stats missing that means he isn't standing out?

I think one of you said his defending is lazy? If I remember rightly. He'll not last 5 minutes here if he won't do the running. Is it team confidence and Rodgers related? Would a confident team under Howe get him pressing at the highest standard and tracking back? Assuming next season we follow the pattern of this, which isn't a given.

[Stan]

44 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

 

Is he Champions League quality or is he close enough to that quality in form and talent that Eddie Howe will get him to that level? 

I wouldn't say he's CL quality, but under the right coaching and set-up, I think he could be. Barnes thrives on being able to attack space down the wing, or sometimes in behind the defence. High chance creation, too, which is the main reason why I think he'll flourish under how Newcastle play if last season is anything to go by. The amount of chances your two strikers would be involved in, not to mention your midfield too, will bode well if Barnes does play. With the right players around him (like Maddison was for us), he could definitely have a good enough impact at CL level. Up against world-class or elite defenders he may struggle against...

 

45 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

How does someone score 13 goals from the wing in a season and not get in the England squad? What are those stats missing that means he isn't standing out?

That could be a Southgate/England thing. Maddison had better stats, goal involvements but couldn't get in the England squad for ages. I also think the styles are different - Grealish and Barnes are more similar. I don't know their comparative stats domestically but Grealish slots in perfectly in the England side. Grealish/Barnes are more like-for-like than Maddison and Grealish which was the usual/typical comparison. 

 

45 minutes ago, Honey Honey said:

I think one of you said his defending is lazy? If I remember rightly. He'll not last 5 minutes here if he won't do the running. Is it team confidence and Rodgers related? Would a confident team under Howe get him pressing at the highest standard and tracking back? Assuming next season we follow the pattern of this, which isn't a given.

Lazy or just not a priority. When you take into account that his best quality is bombing forward, it's unlikely the defensive side of his game will be that adequate. He did very well here with Chilwell because he (Chilwell) would have so much energy to get up and down the pitch that Barnes wouldn't need to get back as much. Maybe it's to do with our own full-backs that it looked like Barnes wouldn't do as much. We were criminally exposed in all areas of the pitch under Rodgers. To me, Barnes used to only be a confidence-player but he has developed enough to be able to play well in the right system (which I think Newcastle have). So maybe it's a bit of confidence too, of the team as well as individually. I think if he feels comfortable and happy in the side, he'll do the work. We were set up so defensively under Rodgers that we ended up not using him to his strengths and so any of his 'weaknesses' were highlighted even more. But his strengths as an attacking player far outweigh the weaknesses he has for any other part of his game. 

[OrangeKhrush]

I'm hoping we can do a deal with Anderson going to Leicester on loan

[Dan+]

21 hours ago, Spike said:

Those sort of stats are kinda meaningless as they have no context. Are the goals and assists;
home or away?
was Leicester winning or losing at the moment?
what team were they against?
Because if he scores twice and assists twice in a 7-0 win at home, then does nothing the next three games, he still averages 1 goal/assist per game. 

Your point would make far more sense if I'd posted say two months worth of form. I think from four full Premier League seasons it's a far fairer sample size of data and if you can't conclude that he's a consistently productive player at that level from it then I don't really know what he'd need to do.

For what it's worth we've scored more than 5 in a game in the Premier League once ever.

[Dan+]

14 hours ago, Honey Honey said:

Questions for me...

I don't know much about him @Dan @Stan so don't take these questions as criticism or putting him down, just curiosity I think you can help me get to the bottom of.

Is he Champions League quality or is he close enough to that quality in form and talent that Eddie Howe will get him to that level? 

How does someone score 13 goals from the wing in a season and not get in the England squad? What are those stats missing that means he isn't standing out?

I think one of you said his defending is lazy? If I remember rightly. He'll not last 5 minutes here if he won't do the running. Is it team confidence and Rodgers related? Would a confident team under Howe get him pressing at the highest standard and tracking back? Assuming next season we follow the pattern of this, which isn't a given.

I'm gonna answer this without reading what Stan said.

'Champions League quality' is tough to quantify. There are lots of players in your squad that I think aren't really Champions League quality and you've gotten more than the sum of your parts. I would say his position is one of the ones you're weakest in. There's no way I'd have St Maximin, Gordon or Murphy over him for example. I'd say borderline but I think the numbers he's gotten in the last couple of seasons are real credit to him - because we've been largely utter rubbish.

England squads are a simply tough barometer again but I'd say he's largely been a victim of who he's playing for. Maddison hit a fantastic run of form going into the World Cup for us and got in by the skin of his teeth. I think it's particularly hard to get into an England side that's quite settled and doing pretty well on the whole when you're playing for a team in the relegation zone. He was also simply not going to displace Rashford, who was in better form.

I think he can be a bit of a luxury defensively, I'd say that's probably his main flaw and the other reason for the above, but then I think yet again, you have to look at the whole structure (or lack of it) in our side in the last couple of years. There's no semblance of defensive nous whatsoever. We were an absolute dream of an opponent, zero structure in midfield and totally imbalanced. I'll flip this around here for a slightly better example - put Almiron in our side in the last couple of years and he'd have looked lost, and he certainly wouldn't have hit the 13 goals Barnes got last season if he was playing for us.

Barnes has been playing under a manager who started very well for us but eventually lost his way and then gave up when he realised he couldn't keep buying dross that his mate recommended for him. Newcastle would be a very good move for him. I think he's had his last year or arguably two in spite of the coaching rather than because of it. Howe would bring more from him for me.

The thing I truly believe which will sound ridiculous is that I don't actually think there is tonnes between the two squads last season in terms of ability. People will laugh at that but I think you got the absolute maximum you could've gotten from yours and I think we got just about as little as we possibly could've from ours. Yours gets the edge (obviously) but there should never be 14 places between the two. It's a credit to how you've handled things post takeover and how badly we took our eye off the ball.

I've accepted we'll lose Barnes but £25mil would take the absolute piss even with relegation. Buendia went for £37mil in 2021 and he'd done absolutely nothing at this level compared to Barnes. Would be absolutely disgraceful negotiation from us and given we've already made a big sale, completely senseless as we're not as desperate for the money.

[Dan+]

Stan makes a good point actually about the full back behind him. We've quite consistently been playing right backs at left back whilst Chilwell was very much a typical modern day full back.

I think in short he's a player of demonstrable quality who has kept getting good numbers even despite how bad a side we became and that's simply because he's good. I think he's an upgrade on anything you have in his position currently.

[OrangeKhrush]

Depending on where you read it is either very close or very far.   If he can be had for around 35m at most 40m it seems sensible enough but some reports are saying Leicester want north of 50m which makes him unattractive when Leverkusen are selling Diaby for 50m who is a proven 25 goal contribution a season player and younger. 

[Spike]

8 hours ago, Dan said:

Your point would make far more sense if I'd posted say two months worth of form. I think from four full Premier League seasons it's a far fairer sample size of data and if you can't conclude that he's a consistently productive player at that level from it then I don't really know what he'd need to do.

For what it's worth we've scored more than 5 in a game in the Premier League once ever.

Not my point at all. I wasn’t talking about consistency or ability. There is still no context, the data is meaningless as it tells nothing besides the numbers. And exactly my point about the five goals scored! I wouldn’t know that without the you telling me, so the context is important. Does he score with FKs?  Penalties? Are the assists from set pieces? Are the assists short passes or through balls? 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/data-science-without-context-matteo-masucci
https://tommccallum.medium.com/without-context-data-is-simply-noise-293e1524db6d#:~:text=Without Context%2C Data is simply so much noise.,world%2C your business%2C anything.

[Stan]

3 minutes ago, Spike said:

Not my point at all. I wasn’t talking about consistency or ability. There is still no context, the data is meaningless as it tells nothing besides the numbers. And exactly my point about the five goals scored! I wouldn’t know that without the you telling me, so the context is important. Does he score with FKs?  Penalties? Are the assists from set pieces? Are the assists short passes or through balls? 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/data-science-without-context-matteo-masucci
https://tommccallum.medium.com/without-context-data-is-simply-noise-293e1524db6d#:~:text=Without Context%2C Data is simply so much noise.,world%2C your business%2C anything.

This might give some insight, at least for context of when the goals were scored:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/harvey-barnes/alletore/spieler/398065/plus/0?saison=&verein=&liga=1&wettbewerb=&pos=&minute=&pos=&torart=&stand=

From the top of my head, he's never scored a free-kick (barely taken any), and he doesn't take set-pieces. Generally assists would be short passes/crosses.

Equalisers - 7

To take the lead - 11

Goals that didn't matter (already winning when scoring, lost the game after scoring) - 17*

 

*the flaw of 'goals that didn't matter' category is that they do still matter, to an extent. Scoring a goal to go up to 2-0 does still have relevance in terms of the in-game situation (secure lead) as well as goal-difference...

 

That's just a snapshot anyway for goals. Will have to look for assist type, if that even exists...

[Spike]

13 minutes ago, Stan said:

This might give some insight, at least for context of when the goals were scored:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/harvey-barnes/alletore/spieler/398065/plus/0?saison=&verein=&liga=1&wettbewerb=&pos=&minute=&pos=&torart=&stand=

From the top of my head, he's never scored a free-kick (barely taken any), and he doesn't take set-pieces. Generally assists would be short passes/crosses.

Equalisers - 7

To take the lead - 11

Goals that didn't matter (already winning when scoring, lost the game after scoring) - 17*

 

*the flaw of 'goals that didn't matter' category is that they do still matter, to an extent. Scoring a goal to go up to 2-0 does still have relevance in terms of the in-game situation (secure lead) as well as goal-difference...

 

That's just a snapshot anyway for goals. Will have to look for assist type, if that even exists...

That’s great, ta mate. A strong correlation between the team winning and Barnes playing well.  Dependent on his right foot, and a clutch player.