Subscriber Pyfish+ Posted January 2 Subscriber Posted January 2 I made a balls up by putting Hearts v Livingston because that match is today (due to their stupid extra bank holiday day). If it doesn't count, so be it obviously, Hearts have got to win first anyway. Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 2 Author Subscriber Posted January 2 Naturally Aberdeen are absolutely walloping their opponents today. Just infuriating luck again. I'll get an updated table in today. I believe we have a new leader. Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 2 Author Subscriber Posted January 2 7 hours ago, Pyfish said: I made a balls up by putting Hearts v Livingston because that match is today (due to their stupid extra bank holiday day). If it doesn't count, so be it obviously, Hearts have got to win first anyway. I'll allow it as it's the silly time of year and I run it Tuesday to Monday to fit in line with the typical football week. Tuesday daytime games feel very NYD-y. 1 Quote
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted January 2 Subscriber Posted January 2 This isn't for the game but I've just noticed that Forest are priced at 8.00 to beat Arsenal at home later this month and while I'm not saying it'll definitely happen, I think they're certainly over-priced. Draw No Bet is at 5.50. I've put a small bet on the Forest win. Thought others might be interested at that price . 1 Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 2 Author Subscriber Posted January 2 4 hours ago, RandoEFC said: This isn't for the game but I've just noticed that Forest are priced at 8.00 to beat Arsenal at home later this month and while I'm not saying it'll definitely happen, I think they're certainly over-priced. Draw No Bet is at 5.50. I've put a small bet on the Forest win. Thought others might be interested at that price . I've been doing a few like this lately. Arsenal lost there in both of the last two seasons as well (one in the cup). I had Luton to beat Newcastle 4/1, Preston to beat Leeds 5/1, got close with Rotherham beating Sunderland at 5/1. The angle I'm increasingly taking is that home teams are overpriced. I will need big odds to get on an away team. Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 3 Author Subscriber Posted January 3 On 29/12/2023 at 03:22, Dan said: WEEK 21 - THE NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS WEEK 21 STATS Winning bets: 0/5 Winning selections: 3/10 Weekly forum position: -£65.00 (Ranked 18/21) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 37/148 Winning selections: 127/280 Total forum position: -£391.27 A slight delay in getting the table out here and I have to say, it really wasn't worth the wait, as we land our fourth worst weekend of the season with nobody collecting a win. The biggest loser of the week, and season however is @Pyfish who becomes the first to use, and lose his £25 bonus bet, and it comes with the double whammy of it being courtesy of a Grimsby defeat at home to Harrogate. Mansfield delivered a 0-2 victory in the other leg, but Grimsby lose at home and the lead at the top is cut, and not courtesy of anybody winning. @CaaC (John) was the only player to post two losers as neither Arsenal or Brighton could get wins in big away games, both managing 1-1 draws. @RandoEFC has his third loss on the trot as Dundee United couldn't beat Queens Park to even secure the void, as Union St Gilloise fairly surprisingly for me only managed a 1-2 win at the leagues bottom side in Eupen. I'd have expected a much heavier win in that game I have to say. @Stan comes the closest to picking a winner but the 3rd goal in Wrexham v Newport never arrives. It appears that Wrexham have reigned in the chaos somewhat, with the silly scorelines definitely slowing down somewhat, but an annoyance nontheless. Stockport beat Notts County 2-1 in the other game, so it came close. And as per any post on the league table, it comes with a sob story from myself. Part of me is pissed off that I seem to have saved what feels like all of the abysmal luck for a public thread, but part of me also thinks it's a good job I'm not actually backing these and that I'm doing a lot better on the real thing. The Cheltenham pick was a bit of a blinder, their upturn under Darrell Clarke has been sensational frankly given how badly they started. Sampdoria, well I was right about the chaos factor, but it was over once they got a red card. They went 0-2 down early, got one back but then had Pajtim Kasami sent off. Brought it back to 2-2 in the second half, but conceded a late winner. Yet again I'm pretty sure without the red they probably go on to win the game, but sods law. This makes it a remarkably bad 20 losses in 21 weeks. Easy to lose track as I have done here but week 22 runs from boxing day to Monday 2nd January - so you have absolutely loads to choose from as there is a full slate of the English leagues this weekend. The EFL are all playing Friday 29th and Monday 1st January while the Premier League runs a standard weekend. So there is plenty to work with. WEEK 22 - HAPPY NEW YEAR WEEK 22 STATS Winning bets: 2/6 Winning selections: 6/10 Weekly forum position: +£96.60 (Ranked 1/22) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 39/154 Winning selections: 133/290 Total forum position: -£294.67 I think on the law of averages we were about due some collective luck on the forum, although it's pretty clear that one particular bet has carried the collective in a week where plenty went big. So the obvious place to start is to congratulate the new leader in @Lucas who becomes the first of the four players so far to use the £25 bet on a winner - at the biggest odds of the four too. The bet was for both Salah and Gordon to register a shot on target and draw a foul in the Liverpool v Newcastle game and they obliged. The biggest win of the season. Despite registering his first win in three months, this is the week where @Pyfish is knocked off the top of the table. Maybe fortunate to be allowed the winner as Hearts' win over Livingston took place outside of the date, but I'll make an allowance, only a day out and everyone loses track over Christmas. It pays out anyway, along with having Liverpool to win the same game as Lucas. That's where the positives end, but the profit is strong enough to still make this the best week we've had. @CaaC (John) falls to a seasonal low position of 6th following Hearts' failure to win, ironically. They were 2 down at home to Ross County but could only get a draw rather than go all the way, while Aston Villa won an equally dramatic game over Burnley in the last minute. No winner this week and the only player to drop by two places. The big losers of the week are @RandoEFC and @Stan having both played their £25 chip and backing losers. Rando is extremely unlucky as Burnley's game with Liverpool yielded exactly 8 corners when it was over that total that was required, although on the flip side I think if this had have landed, then the manner of which the Ipswich Leicester both teams to score selection won would've been extremely fluky as Ipswich scored a last minute equaliser courtesy of two deflections. Stan actually put in two bet selections this week. Now it's a bit tricky because they weren't at the same value so there's no obvious outcome here. I've awarded the £25 loss as it was the first selection to be made and it had already settled, although it's slightly unfortunate. And once again I finish with myself. A nine game losing run and further irritability as Aberdeen deliver an absolutely abject showing at home to St Mirren, before just three days later going away and thrashing Ross County while St Mirren get hammered themselves (in fairness by Celtic), so I retain they were probably the right side on the wrong day. Juventus won 1-0 although I watched the game, they were fairly comfortable and I still think their price was generous. Just cannot catch any sort of break whatsoever, although I've gotten slightly closer to 8th given the £25 losses above me. These are the straws I'm having to clutch at this point. FA Cup 3rd round weekend this time out. For me it's a huge trap which I'll probably avoid, but there is plenty else as the European leagues start returning from Christmas. Quote
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted January 4 Subscriber Posted January 4 Week 23 FA Cup Frid 5th January Tottenham to beat Burnley Saturday 6th January Sunderland to beat Newcastle Quote
Lucas Posted January 4 Posted January 4 (edited) 23 hours ago, Dan said: WEEK 22 - HAPPY NEW YEAR Ah, would you look at that... I'd just like to take this moment to announce my (temporary) retirement from the game, it's been a pleasure and good luck catching me lads (Don't worry, I'll still bet. My next challenge is to lose it all) Edited January 4 by Lucas Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 5 Author Subscriber Posted January 5 Fairly short notice one, but pick one is Bologna tonight at home to Genoa at evens. Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 5 Author Subscriber Posted January 5 Looks like I've done it yet again. Genuinely next week might just stick a couple of banker games as over 0.5 to see which ends 0-0. Quote
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted January 6 Subscriber Posted January 6 On 04/01/2024 at 11:07, RandoEFC said: No cup games for me. The Inter side was a roller coaster. 1-0 up with 6 corners in the 67th minute looked like it would cruise in. Verona equalise and it's 1-1 and still sat on 6 corners heading into injury time. 93rd minute, Inter finally get me to 7 corners and score from it. Should be in the bag and even moreso when Verona go down to 10 men in the 95th minute. Verona then got a penalty and missed it in the 10th minute of injury time. Got there in the end. Come on Falkirk! Quote
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted January 6 Subscriber Posted January 6 1 hour ago, RandoEFC said: The Inter side was a roller coaster. 1-0 up with 6 corners in the 67th minute looked like it would cruise in. Verona equalise and it's 1-1 and still sat on 6 corners heading into injury time. 93rd minute, Inter finally get me to 7 corners and score from it. Should be in the bag and even moreso when Verona go down to 10 men in the 95th minute. Verona then got a penalty and missed it in the 10th minute of injury time. Got there in the end. Come on Falkirk! Falkirk (average 10.5 corners in their home games) and Queen of the South (average 11 corners in their away games) combining to produce 0 corners so far in 60 minutes so this is yet another loss for me by the looks of it . Quote
Administrator Stan Posted January 6 Administrator Posted January 6 10 hours ago, Stan said: One more Watford goal please... Quote
Administrator Stan Posted January 6 Administrator Posted January 6 Boom. Finally another winner. Goals at Plymouth seems like a banker these days. Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 7 Author Subscriber Posted January 7 On 06/01/2024 at 16:20, RandoEFC said: Falkirk (average 10.5 corners in their home games) and Queen of the South (average 11 corners in their away games) combining to produce 0 corners so far in 60 minutes so this is yet another loss for me by the looks of it . Can't find the stats on this on flash scores - going to assume it didn't win as you would imagine that the game being level is when you'd get more corners. But obviously that isn't a given. Quote
Administrator Stan Posted January 7 Administrator Posted January 7 49 minutes ago, Dan said: Can't find the stats on this on flash scores - going to assume it didn't win as you would imagine that the game being level is when you'd get more corners. But obviously that isn't a given. 3 corners according to Google. https://g.co/kgs/8hm9w7F 1 Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 7 Author Subscriber Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Stan said: 3 corners according to Google. https://g.co/kgs/8hm9w7F Cheers. That's very unlucky. 3 corners seems like hardly anything in a game where one team was 1/5. A good win for you as well by the way. Nice to see I'm back miles off 8th again! Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 9 Author Subscriber Posted January 9 On 03/01/2024 at 22:52, Dan said: WEEK 22 - HAPPY NEW YEAR WEEK 22 STATS Winning bets: 2/6 Winning selections: 6/10 Weekly forum position: +£96.60 (Ranked 1/22) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 39/154 Winning selections: 133/290 Total forum position: -£294.67 I think on the law of averages we were about due some collective luck on the forum, although it's pretty clear that one particular bet has carried the collective in a week where plenty went big. So the obvious place to start is to congratulate the new leader in @Lucas who becomes the first of the four players so far to use the £25 bet on a winner - at the biggest odds of the four too. The bet was for both Salah and Gordon to register a shot on target and draw a foul in the Liverpool v Newcastle game and they obliged. The biggest win of the season. Despite registering his first win in three months, this is the week where @Pyfish is knocked off the top of the table. Maybe fortunate to be allowed the winner as Hearts' win over Livingston took place outside of the date, but I'll make an allowance, only a day out and everyone loses track over Christmas. It pays out anyway, along with having Liverpool to win the same game as Lucas. That's where the positives end, but the profit is strong enough to still make this the best week we've had. @CaaC (John) falls to a seasonal low position of 6th following Hearts' failure to win, ironically. They were 2 down at home to Ross County but could only get a draw rather than go all the way, while Aston Villa won an equally dramatic game over Burnley in the last minute. No winner this week and the only player to drop by two places. The big losers of the week are @RandoEFC and @Stan having both played their £25 chip and backing losers. Rando is extremely unlucky as Burnley's game with Liverpool yielded exactly 8 corners when it was over that total that was required, although on the flip side I think if this had have landed, then the manner of which the Ipswich Leicester both teams to score selection won would've been extremely fluky as Ipswich scored a last minute equaliser courtesy of two deflections. Stan actually put in two bet selections this week. Now it's a bit tricky because they weren't at the same value so there's no obvious outcome here. I've awarded the £25 loss as it was the first selection to be made and it had already settled, although it's slightly unfortunate. And once again I finish with myself. A nine game losing run and further irritability as Aberdeen deliver an absolutely abject showing at home to St Mirren, before just three days later going away and thrashing Ross County while St Mirren get hammered themselves (in fairness by Celtic), so I retain they were probably the right side on the wrong day. Juventus won 1-0 although I watched the game, they were fairly comfortable and I still think their price was generous. Just cannot catch any sort of break whatsoever, although I've gotten slightly closer to 8th given the £25 losses above me. These are the straws I'm having to clutch at this point. FA Cup 3rd round weekend this time out. For me it's a huge trap which I'll probably avoid, but there is plenty else as the European leagues start returning from Christmas. WEEK 23 - REGRESSION TO THE MEAN WEEK 23 STATS Winning bets: 1/5 Winning selections: 4/9 Weekly forum position: -£16.08 (Ranked 12/23) --- OVERALL STATS Winning bets: 40/159 Winning selections: 137/299 Total forum position: -£310.75 Back for another (slightly) late update. Just five players again this week, and a slight loss after last weeks best. Starting with @Pyfish who returns a double losing selection on two pretty short priced both teams to score picks - though two games which I fancied for it myself, the Sunderland v Newcastle one giving me an early kick off curse. Sunderland fans' consensus is that they didn't play anywhere near their best and that they would've done better under Mowbray, which is quite damning. How Arsenal didn't score as well was quite remarkable, another selection which cost me a bet over the weekend. @CaaC (John) falls victim to the same game as Sunderland's no-show means it's nothing for him this week, following Tottenham's late win over Burnley. The only winner of the week is @Stan who picks two pretty well priced selections of Championship sides winning at home to lower league in the FA Cup, with the goals flowing. His first win in a while and nearly cancels out his £25 loss last week. @RandoEFC is pretty unlucky this time out, being let down by an extremely short priced game in Falkirk where the slightly vague information online tells us the game only saw 3 corners when 7 were needed in their 1-0 win. Inter came in. I for the fourth time have dropped a fairly short notice selection in early, and for a fourth time have been burnt as Bologna failed to deliver the goods against Genoa at home. They went behind to an early free kick and pretty much from that point I knew it was done. I watched the game and I don't think it could've gone any more how I expected it to from that point - Genoa park the bus and Bologna, a good and improved team but not quite good enough yet for this scenario, could only break it down with a last gasp equaliser, meaning the stats are skewed laughably in their favour. They probably ought to have won, but I did fear that exact game could play out. Back to league action this week with pretty much all of Europe returned. Quote
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted January 9 Subscriber Posted January 9 Week 24 - EPL Friday 12th Jan Burnley v Luton, Luton to win Sunday 14th Jan Man United v Spurs, United to win. Quote
Subscriber Pyfish+ Posted January 11 Subscriber Posted January 11 Newcastle aren't in the best of forms but I think they'll manage a goal against City, who you'd be surprised if they didn't score. Cole Palmer has had a good season with Chelsea and backing him to grab a goal here. Quote
Subscriber Dan+ Posted January 11 Author Subscriber Posted January 11 Almeria v Girona - I think anybody with any vague interest in football outside of England this season knows the story of Girona. Comparable to Leicester of 2015/16 if they were to go all the way and win the league. They sit 2nd in the league at the half way mark, level on points with Real Madrid, but I think the really impressive bit is actually the points tally of 48 from 19 games. So they have only dropped 9 points all season, coming in a loss to Real Madrid and draws with Real Betis, Bilbao and Real Sociedad. This means they have won every single game against teams sitting 8th or below. Almeria sit 20th in the league on just 5 points. They're every bit as bad as Girona are good and the fact the odds on a Girona win is 7/10 itself is remarkably overpriced. I think the odds of it being 0-1 are pretty low though and there's a good case to get on some handicaps. There isn't a single thing beyond "sods law" that I see stopping a comfortable Girona win here. I actually quite also like Girona to win & BTTS at 5/2, Girona -1 at 13/8 and Girona -2 at 4/1, all very palatable. Barnsley v Bristol Rovers - BTTS has paid out in 5 of Barnsley's last 6 home games, and all of Bristol Rovers' last 11 games in all competitions. So there is plenty of reason to think this will pay out. BTTS is 4/6 but eliminating the 1-1 draw as an option (granted risky) boosts the price a fair bit, and I really need a bit of money to come in on this so I'm taking the slightly riskier option. £10 returns £39.26. Quote
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted January 12 Subscriber Posted January 12 20 hours ago, Dan said: There isn't a single thing beyond "sods law" that I see stopping a comfortable Girona win here. I actually quite also like Girona to win & BTTS at 5/2, Girona -1 at 13/8 and Girona -2 at 4/1, all very palatable. I'm on Girona -0.25 and Girona -2 myself. Quote
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